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[Omollo]

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Like I predicted, Pundit was preparing us for the pre-agreed rigging figure. Here is their "poll". Guess the final figure:

Opinion poll by Centre for African Progress places President Uhuru in the lead with 53%, with NASA flag-bearer Raila at 42%; 5% undecided. pic.twitter.com/hH7V7jwAAX

— InooroKe (@inooroke) July 30, 2017

[Kichwa]

I have to confess that in the beginning I thought Pundit was serious with his MOAS until I realized it was a propaganda tool just like any of these fake polls.  53% seems to be their preferred number.  It must be based on the number of the "ghost voters" they have available.

Like I predicted, Pundit was preparing us for the pre-agreed rigging figure. Here is their "poll". Guess the final figure:

Opinion poll by Centre for African Progress places President Uhuru in the lead with 53%, with NASA flag-bearer Raila at 42%; 5% undecided. pic.twitter.com/hH7V7jwAAX

— InooroKe (@inooroke) July 30, 2017

[Omollo]

Its based on the number of ballot papers they have each been tasked to declare spoilt. They have also disenfranchised 1M people by illegally moving them.

When you add 2M ghost voters (for which JP has now gone to court to fight so that the Voter Register is NOT published for all to see how same ID card has been use and strange single to 7 digit ID cards where the minimum is supped to be 8 digits for an ID). That gives them about 3.5 million "votes".

They already have 2.5 million ballot papers which they will pre-mark. Then the IEBC has granted them another 1.2 million excess printed ballots. You can see their thinking.

NASA has counter measures. I hope they work.

I have to confess that in the beginning I thought Pundit was serious with his MOAS until I realized it was a propaganda tool just like any of these fake polls.  53% seems to be their preferred number.  It must be based on the number of the "ghot voters" they have.

[RV Pundit]

You two idiots are very funny.Now I am part of Jubilee rigging . You can get excel and come up with your numbers. I have been doing MOAS since 2005 referendum. I didn't see you complain as recently as 2010 referendum?

Obviously your beef is simple. My MOAS is well though out. Prof Hornsby Charles with PHD in Kenya Politics - came up with his own MOAS - got 53% versus 46% too.

Prof Charles Hornsby who got 2013 to the dot  - unlike MOAS - which I released months to election and refused to update.
https://www.theelephant.info/future/2017/06/28/the-numbers-game-predicting-winners-and-losers-in-the-august-2017-poll/

Nationally, the combination of registration numbers, turnout and an ethnically and historically voting-based preference model still predicts a first round win for Uhuru and Ruto, by 53% to 46% (with a maximum of 1% of votes to other candidates). It suggests Kenyatta and Ruto will get roughly 8.5 million votes (of which more than 5 million will come from the Kalenjin and Kikuyu communities) while Odinga and Musyoka will poll 7.5 million, of which approximately 3 million will come from Luo and Kamba voters. This would be on a national turnout of 83%, with a regional variation from 90% in Central and Luo Nyanza to 65% in Mombasa, Kilifi and Kwale. Turnout is one of the great imponderables, however, and elections can be won or lost on the day based on successes or failures at the grassroots level in turning out supporters. Historically, Jubilee and its predecessor alliances have been slightly better than NASA and its predecessors at this, but in this election, Jubilee may have less of an advantage here.

Prof Hornsby 2013 figures

[Globalcitizen12]

if Tribal voting patterns hold.. Uhuru will win with about 51% all the rest is just academic argument.. There is no anxiety in Jubilee zone.. the only anxiety is NASA zones because they know numbers are not adding up. In a free and fair elections with tribal voting patterns holding Jubilee wins.. The most important returns will be in

Meru if raila over performs then we will go to the wire
Nairobi if raila gains over 55 percent things will get interesting

COAST.. Raila has to wipe the floor literally with Uhuru

Western not a factor there are no enough votes to swing raila away from 45%

RV - A miracle is need for raila to stay alive


I have no doubt MOAS will carry the day. I cannot deny what is so obvious.. As a Kikuyu i expected Raila to move a bigger outlier this time from his traditional under 10% to over 12% he hasn't done so ..even in cosmopolitan Kiambu county he is polling below 9%

NASA hope is to increase number of MPS and Governors and hope to join Ruto in coalition in 2022 to stop another 10 year of Kikuyus in 2032.. I will be too old then to give a shit anymore

[RV Pundit]

I think everyone need to get excel and play around with those scenarios - and see just how impossible it for raila to win. For instance I can do that now - raise Raila vote in Meru to even 50%; Nairobi to 60%;and see the impact...still Uhuru wins with 50% against Raila 49%. 

When I ran most plausible scenarios - Uhuru at min goes to 52% - Raila 47% - the most realistic scenario is 53% versus 46%.

if Tribal voting patterns hold.. Uhuru will win with about 51% all the rest is just academic argument.. There is no anxiety in Jubilee zone.. the only anxiety is NASA zones because they know numbers are not adding up. In a free and fair elections with tribal voting patterns holding Jubilee wins.. The most important returns will be in

Meru if raila over performs then we will go to the wire
Nairobi if raila gains over 55 percent things will get interesting

COAST.. Raila has to wipe the floor literally with Uhuru

Western not a factor there are no enough votes to swing raila away from 45%

RV - A miracle is need for raila to stay alive


I have no doubt MOAS will carry the day. I cannot deny what is so obvious.. As a Kikuyu i expected Raila to move a bigger outlier this time from his traditional under 10% to over 12% he hasn't done so ..even in cosmopolitan Kiambu county he is polling below 9%

NASA hope is to increase number of MPS and Governors and hope to join Ruto in coalition in 2022 to stop another 10 year of Kikuyus in 2032.. I will be too old then to give a shit anymore

[Globalcitizen12]

Raila goose is cooked by tribal voting nothing can rescue him

[Kichwa]

We do not have a problem with Excel. Its the information you are feeding into the excel that we have a problem with. There are all sorts of tribal voting patterns that can be fed into the excel.  They are all based on different political analysis and they will yield different results.  It is one thing to believe that yours is the correct political analysis but it is another to believe that it is the only way.  That's something you might expect your village fans to believe in but NOT here.

I think everyone need to get excel and play around with those scenarios - and see just how impossible it for raila to win. For instance I can do that now - raise Raila vote in Meru to even 50%; Nairobi to 60%;and see the impact...still Uhuru wins with 50% against Raila 49%. 

When I ran most plausible scenarios - Uhuru at min goes to 52% - Raila 47% - the most realistic scenario is 53% versus 46%.

if Tribal voting patterns hold.. Uhuru will win with about 51% all the rest is just academic argument.. There is no anxiety in Jubilee zone.. the only anxiety is NASA zones because they know numbers are not adding up. In a free and fair elections with tribal voting patterns holding Jubilee wins.. The most important returns will be in

Meru if raila over performs then we will go to the wire
Nairobi if raila gains over 55 percent things will get interesting

COAST.. Raila has to wipe the floor literally with Uhuru

Western not a factor there are no enough votes to swing raila away from 45%

RV - A miracle is need for raila to stay alive


I have no doubt MOAS will carry the day. I cannot deny what is so obvious.. As a Kikuyu i expected Raila to move a bigger outlier this time from his traditional under 10% to over 12% he hasn't done so ..even in cosmopolitan Kiambu county he is polling below 9%

NASA hope is to increase number of MPS and Governors and hope to join Ruto in coalition in 2022 to stop another 10 year of Kikuyus in 2032.. I will be too old then to give a shit anymore

[Globalcitizen12]

Lol kichwa is very cheeky.. wait until 8/9/17 and he will kumbafu you a few times..

Patel aka poor Kaloi has lost his marbles already..

[RV Pundit]

Get your own excel and share your thinking - and we can proceed. or Wait for 8.8.2017 for kichapo.

We do not have a problem with Excel. Its the information you are feeding into the excel that we have a problem with. There are all sorts of tribal voting patterns that can be fed into the excel.  They are all based on different political analysis and they will yield different results.  It is one thing to believe that yours is the correct political analysis but it is another to believe that it is the only way.  That's something you might expect your village fans to believe in but NOT here.

[RV Pundit]

Patel cannot be Poor Kaloi. Patel is certified moron. PK was someone I respected. He was quite intelligent. Kichwa will loop and loop over "issues" - so it's waste of time engaging him nowadays. He is so predictable. Omollo - is crazy. He picks a story - then spin an incredible yarn.

Lol kichwa is very cheeky.. wait until 8/9/17 and he will kumbafu you a few times..

Patel aka poor Kaloi has lost his marbles already..

[Globalcitizen12]

Yeah you are right poor Kaloi was very bright.. he was very hopeful Kenyans would see things his way and vote with CORD it didn't happen. I think most Kenyans have retreated and given up on Nationalism. Most who Kenyans who are 35 and over have realized how futile it is to try to fight the highly ingrained tribal identity. With devolution we are even going to me more and more divided as few nationalists compete for national posts.. Most good politicians are retreating to the counties..

The problem is devolution is so weak and has is poorly structured to groom national leaders

[Omollo]

Pundit

If you had a method that was consistent and which can be replicated and used by anybody I could think differently.

You system lacks in all those qualities (listed above generally). It is erratic and highly subjective. There is no explanation why a value/ practice employed in one scenario / situation is not being so employed in an exact same scenario elsewhere. It is in short topsyturvy!

Above all - and most crucial for me - is the clear perception that you first agreed on the final figures with Uhuru placed at 53% and then proceeded prepared your MOAS. For the final figure to remain 53% it is obvious that you have to add and subtract and divide and twist until the "desired" result remains intact.

My evidence and disgust came on the same day. When you posted the very first one and I asked if you were sure of it and you affirmed. However once a the figures were properly added and the zones / strongholds properly attributed, with NASA in a commanding lead, you "withdrew" the MOAS and declared that it was incomplete!

I therefore paid little attention to the subsequent "amended" MOAS.

It is a good working document for a person who seeks to start understanding Kenyan politics. But for those of us already on top of things, that is a clear piece of propaganda because I am not about to buy the apparent WILFUL stupidity.

On the other hand you could be falling victim to the propaganda of your own party and your surroundings. I sit around JP people and have to often conceal anger, frustration, laughter and all. I am usually grateful when it is all over and I have to take my leave. There is frankly a disconnect between wishful thinking and reality; The use of draconian powers and the use of democratic powers of persuasion.

I hear such things like we shall win come what may and the speaker somehow still imagines stealing an election is not undemocratic as long as Uhuru is "delivering" and Laira will give chang'aa to kids...
 

[Globalcitizen12]

Omollo,
All pundit is asking is for you do what he has done. Put together an analysis similar to his and let use wait to know the facts in 8 days

[Omollo]

Re-read what I have written and find the reasons why I (or anybody else) cannot and feel free to re-direct based on that.

Omollo,
All pundit is asking is for you do what he has done. Put together an analysis similar to his and let use wait to know the facts in 8 days

[RV Pundit]

The proof of the pudding is in the eating. 8.8.2017. Every election I do this - I start with rough moas - I share the figures -with lots of errors - and eventually when figures are stable like now - I realize the final MOAS. As for your nonsense about me agreeing with Uhuru -  clearly you're unhinged and in serious need of mental health care.

Pundit

If you had a method that was consistent and which can be replicated and used by anybody I could think differently.

You system lacks in all those qualities (listed above generally). It is erratic and highly subjective. There is no explanation why a value/ practice employed in one scenario / situation is not being so employed in an exact same scenario elsewhere. It is in short topsyturvy!

Above all - and most crucial for me - is the clear perception that you first agreed on the final figures with Uhuru placed at 53% and then proceeded prepared your MOAS. For the final figure to remain 53% it is obvious that you have to add and subtract and divide and twist until the "desired" result remains intact.

My evidence and disgust came on the same day. When you posted the very first one and I asked if you were sure of it and you affirmed. However once a the figures were properly added and the zones / strongholds properly attributed, with NASA in a commanding lead, you "withdrew" the MOAS and declared that it was incomplete!

I therefore paid little attention to the subsequent "amended" MOAS.

It is a good working document for a person who seeks to start understanding Kenyan politics. But for those of us already on top of things, that is a clear piece of propaganda because I am not about to buy the apparent WILFUL stupidity.

On the other hand you could be falling victim to the propaganda of your own party and your surroundings. I sit around JP people and have to often conceal anger, frustration, laughter and all. I am usually grateful when it is all over and I have to take my leave. There is frankly a disconnect between wishful thinking and reality; The use of draconian powers and the use of democratic powers of persuasion.

I hear such things like we shall win come what may and the speaker somehow still imagines stealing an election is not undemocratic as long as Uhuru is "delivering" and Laira will give chang'aa to kids...
 

[Globalcitizen12]

Re-read what I have written and find the reasons why I (or anybody else) cannot and feel free to re-direct based on that.

Omollo,
All pundit is asking is for you do what he has done. Put together an analysis similar to his and let use wait to know the facts in 8 days

Stop escapeism ..it is like raila 10 million strong nonsense .you just a dishonest spin master.. anyway I am out

[Kichwa]

Actually that's the disagreement.  The reason why I do not have my own excel is because  unlike you, I do not believe you can capture Kenyan voting patterns into an excel spreadsheet even before they vote do the degree of certainty that you are claiming. You can do it with the past when the numbers are all in.  There are certain immeasurable things happening right now that cannot be captured in a spreadsheet and we will have to wait until after the elections for folks to spin, create excel,  colored bar charts, line graphs, etc.  It is my strong belief that NASA will prevail NOT based on  some tribal voting pseudo-science/math but based on old fashioned political observation and analysis.  In other words, I do not buy into your MOAS crap.  Hiyo tuu.

Get your own excel and share your thinking - and we can proceed. or Wait for 8.8.2017 for kichapo.

We do not have a problem with Excel. Its the information you are feeding into the excel that we have a problem with. There are all sorts of tribal voting patterns that can be fed into the excel.  They are all based on different political analysis and they will yield different results.  It is one thing to believe that yours is the correct political analysis but it is another to believe that it is the only way.  That's something you might expect your village fans to believe in but NOT here.

[patel]

The common denominator between Baghdad Bob MOAS and Hornsby tribal math numbers is kimetrica. The source of tribal math.
 

Like I predicted, Pundit was preparing us for the pre-agreed rigging figure. Here is their "poll". Guess the final figure:

Opinion poll by Centre for African Progress places President Uhuru in the lead with 53%, with NASA flag-bearer Raila at 42%; 5% undecided. pic.twitter.com/hH7V7jwAAX

— InooroKe (@inooroke) July 30, 2017