A week to election in now - recapping 2013

[RV Pundit]

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This was my take - although I didn't see any reason to update MOAS (released a month pr two to election). Raila ended up eating MaDVD lunch in Western (which admittedly I didn't know that much). Right now I understand Luhya politics like the back of my hand.

http://nipate.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=23488&p=178426&hilit=MOAS+referendum#p178426

[RV Pundit]

For 2017 - pretty much the tribal numbers are solid - I am only worried about turn out. Everyone got 2013 turn out wrong. That really helped Raila - he got 2-3% bump. I had national turn out at 72% - using historical turn out  that really favored Jubilee - but it seem everyone turned up - maybe the excitement of BVR kits? Governors/Senators/Women Rep? This year I am keeping 2013 turn out and increasing turn out from coast+turkana to match the national average - around 83-86%.If turn out revert to historical average - NASA will lose 1-2% - drop to 45% - with Jubilee winning by 55%.

Conclusion  Uhuru still expected to win by 52-54%  and Raila lose with 45-47%.

[Omollo]

You still do not understand certain things:

1. Turnout in Central and RV is artificial and aided by the failure by CORD to deploy agents or corruption
2. The NIS monitors the turnout in opposition areas among other things so as to determine what turnout to set for Jubilee. (it ain't working this time bro. If anything it might work the opposite way)
3. Luhyas will not vote for Jubilee at all. Your two Bozos - Lusaka and Eunice - will melt like candles in the path of a hurricane

It is possible he may get more votes than his presidential candidate. But I do not see him winning.