Well I been doubting you over Turkana - where you claim the people have done political somersault cause defections - while saying the shifting ground is just 10-20% every elsewhere - Kilifi, Kwale, Marsabit, etc. This poll is more in line with your own logic on the effect of defections.
Ditto Kwale & Meru & Tharaka & Kajiado - Jubilee crew watanyoroshwa.
Bungoma it is the entire Amani that split NASA-Jubilee - prodigal sons back to sweet home - no hearts & minds needed to change. I see this as why Lusaka gets an easy pass compared to likes of Mvurya or Munyes or Isaac - proper defectors with mountain to climb.