Pundito. Of course you are a jubilee fanatical supporter and you have to believe that your side will win mbig. Nobody wants to take that away from you.
What some of us have serious problems with is the premise that "Kenyan voting is substantially based on tribe" and therefore one can reliably predict, with a very reliable/mathematical/scientific degree of certainty how Kenyans will vote on nane nane this year. To top it off, you are very dismissive of anybody who dares to question the premises of your argument/belief/opinion. You dismiss all the other factors that have been known to influence elections all over the world by insisting that Kenya is unique in this regard. You dismiss the overwhelming evidence presented to you that we are not unique and that Kenyans too care about other issues which are NONE tribal. Naisitoshe, you base all this on the 2013 voting patterns although a lot has changed since then and "mambo yabadilika" is hit. Lastly, when people disagree, you are known to become abusive and start bragging about how many times you have been right in the past as if that is an indication that you are infallible. You were only right about Ouru's presidency but you are wrong on how he won. I believe Ouru never made 50% in 2013 and there should have been a run-off. This country would have been better off but Mutunga court failed this country.
Your premise is wrong as far as I am concerned even if Ouru were to win.
Okay I changed MOAS. Raila is now leading. Don't hate the players; hate the game. I didn't invent tribal voting in kenya. All I tried to do is to capture that in an excel . I am not sure when that became part of Jubilee.