Author Topic: IPSOS Witchcraft Released  (Read 4333 times)

Offline Omollo

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IPSOS Witchcraft Released
« on: July 23, 2017, 01:27:20 PM »
... [the ICC case] will be tried in Europe, where due procedure and expertise prevail.; ... Second-guessing Ocampo and fantasizing ..has obviously become a national pastime.- NattyDread

Offline Omollo

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Re: IPSOS Witchcraft Released
« Reply #1 on: July 23, 2017, 02:30:39 PM »
... [the ICC case] will be tried in Europe, where due procedure and expertise prevail.; ... Second-guessing Ocampo and fantasizing ..has obviously become a national pastime.- NattyDread

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: IPSOS Witchcraft Released
« Reply #2 on: July 23, 2017, 03:18:03 PM »
I see Ambitho does her magic :) and cooks some stew to make ODM folks happy before their hopes are crushed in 2 weeks time.

Offline Kichwa

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Re: IPSOS Witchcraft Released
« Reply #3 on: July 23, 2017, 03:22:27 PM »
Pundito-you are the most predictable. I could write your comments for you.

I see Ambitho does her magic :) and cooks some stew to make ODM folks happy before their hopes are crushed in 2 weeks time.
"I have done my job and I will not change anything dead or a live" Malonza

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: IPSOS Witchcraft Released
« Reply #4 on: July 23, 2017, 03:28:01 PM »
Pundito-you are the most predictable. I could write your comments for you.

Offline Kichwa

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Re: IPSOS Witchcraft Released
« Reply #5 on: July 23, 2017, 03:34:54 PM »

Spin, spin, spin. Is there anything you do not spin. You sound like a used car salesperson.


Pundito-you are the most predictable. I could write your comments for you.
"I have done my job and I will not change anything dead or a live" Malonza

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: IPSOS Witchcraft Released
« Reply #6 on: July 23, 2017, 03:38:16 PM »
Msema kweli is 8.8.2017. Of course you'll cry it's rigged even when overwhelming evidence will shows it isn't. 8.8.2017 we will know btw Ambitho & MOAS who was right. Mere 15 days.

Spin, spin, spin. Is there anything you do not spin. You sound like a used car salesperson.


Offline Omollo

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Re: IPSOS Witchcraft Released
« Reply #7 on: July 23, 2017, 03:45:13 PM »
I see Ambitho does her magic :) and cooks some stew to make ODM folks happy before their hopes are crushed in 2 weeks time.
Zogby too?

I am glad that you believe you will win.
... [the ICC case] will be tried in Europe, where due procedure and expertise prevail.; ... Second-guessing Ocampo and fantasizing ..has obviously become a national pastime.- NattyDread

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: IPSOS Witchcraft Released
« Reply #8 on: July 23, 2017, 03:50:17 PM »
Seem even with your own pollster - you cannot get them to do better than 47% versus 46%. I mean why not make it 55% versus 45% for NASA advantage. I got my own stew - MOAS -
Zogby too?

I am glad that you believe you will win.

Offline Omollo

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Re: IPSOS Witchcraft Released
« Reply #9 on: July 23, 2017, 03:51:33 PM »
I do not see anything genius here from Pundit.

9.8.17 If Uhuru has won, you will be triumphant and boast about how you get it right.

If NASA wins as a majority of pollsters now say, you will accuse NASA of rigging by vote stuffing etc, with Homa Bay and Siaya top on your list.

Similarly, I will react in accordance with the events of the period.

For me I have said the following:
 
I will accept the result if:

1. All the elections are conducted by the elections system with voters identified by Biometrics and not ID cards
2. If at no time no voting anywhere takes place "manually"
3. No credible and verifiable reports of vote stuffing

... [the ICC case] will be tried in Europe, where due procedure and expertise prevail.; ... Second-guessing Ocampo and fantasizing ..has obviously become a national pastime.- NattyDread

Offline Omollo

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Re: IPSOS Witchcraft Released
« Reply #10 on: July 23, 2017, 04:01:06 PM »
There is a fundamental difference between me and you; NASA and Jubilee.

I have no way of expressing it without being exceedingly rude. Let me say some of the ideas you express are nauseating and gut wrenching. Understand that there are people who have values and principles which they have cultivated over years.

If NASA was interested in propaganda polls like Jubilee, it would hire, through a proxy, one of the briefcase pollsters in Nairobi who would then do what you are suggesting.

Internal polls cannot be used in that manner. Internal polls are usually ordered by the campaign management - usually a professional body, person. They are intended to fine tune the message and the campaign. Hence they are expected to be brutally honest.

It helps to identify the best use of time and which group of voters to focus on and which would be a waste of time to pursue.

The Zogby poll was not intended to be released - like many which NASA has undertaken including the preference for flagbearer etc. However the leakages started and NASA decided to go ahead and release.

Zogby is not some washed up mzungu Kimbo hired by some Tribal Bigots to run a franchise of a poll company like Ipsos. Zogby runs a reputable international poll company that would not engage in that kind of crap and end up suffering the Arthur Andersen fate.


Seem even with your own pollster - you cannot get them to do better than 47% versus 46%. I mean why not make it 55% versus 45% for NASA advantage. I got my own stew - MOAS -
Zogby too?

I am glad that you believe you will win.
... [the ICC case] will be tried in Europe, where due procedure and expertise prevail.; ... Second-guessing Ocampo and fantasizing ..has obviously become a national pastime.- NattyDread

Offline Kichwa

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Re: IPSOS Witchcraft Released
« Reply #11 on: July 23, 2017, 04:30:45 PM »
What makes you think you will NOT be the one crying rigged. Your world is stuck in 2013.  A lot has changed my friend.  The number to watch is 61% of Kenyans believe Ouruto is taking this country in the wrong direction. Only 23% think we are headed in the right direction.  You should be very worried about that because that is how it may end up breaking.

Msema kweli is 8.8.2017. Of course you'll cry it's rigged even when overwhelming evidence will shows it isn't. 8.8.2017 we will know btw Ambitho & MOAS who was right. Mere 15 days.

Spin, spin, spin. Is there anything you do not spin. You sound like a used car salesperson.

"I have done my job and I will not change anything dead or a live" Malonza

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: IPSOS Witchcraft Released
« Reply #12 on: July 23, 2017, 05:16:16 PM »
MOAS tells me there is NO WAY Raila will win. I believe in it. 8.9.2017. Be here. I will be here.
What makes you think you will NOT be the one crying rigged. Your world is stuck in 2013.  A lot has changed my friend.  The number to watch is 61% of Kenyans believe Ouruto is taking this country in the wrong direction. Only 23% think we are headed in the right direction.  You should be very worried about that because that is how it may end up breaking.

Offline vooke

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Re: IPSOS Witchcraft Released
« Reply #13 on: July 23, 2017, 06:19:29 PM »
Babu can't win. Gaitho says NASWA refused to surrender the breakdown of the sample used by their own, and they only released it once requested by media houses.

It is IMPOSSIBLE for Babu to win, but if he wins, I will change my mind about Tribe being key. I will subscribe to Kichwa's issues
2 Timothy 2:4  No man that warreth entangleth himself with the affairs of this life; that he may please him who hath chosen him to be a soldier.

Offline Omollo

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... [the ICC case] will be tried in Europe, where due procedure and expertise prevail.; ... Second-guessing Ocampo and fantasizing ..has obviously become a national pastime.- NattyDread

Offline vooke

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Re: IPSOS Witchcraft Released
« Reply #15 on: July 23, 2017, 09:55:35 PM »
Looking at IPSOS and Infotrak, I don't think either are bribed to cook results, I lean towards Pundits theory of tribal stratification. They miss on this and they get it bad.

County polls in homogeneous counties should be more accurate,right? But there's one on Jubilee primaries that they got it bad and good.

Kabogo performed dismally 70K vs 354K
http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/04/26/waititu-wins-kiambu-seat-with-353604-votes-against-kabogos-69916_c1550534

Yet he had a 48% lead on Baba Yao's 31%. Even when you factor the huge Undecided, nothing explains how he lost it. Some hypothesized he was rigged out
http://infotrakresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/KIAMBU-COUNTYTRAK-APRIL-2017-FIN.pdf

Women Rep I think it was on point
http://upesinews.co.ke/2017/04/26/gathoni-muchomba-wins-kiambu-county-women-rep-jubilee-ticket/

But on Senators, it was totally off. The incumbent Wamatangi was leading the poll with 49% while number 2 had 7%. 40% were undecided. Yet come the primaries and while he won with 206K, the 7% number 2 had a whole 178K. It's hard to argue that a better portion of 40% suddenly went for the mr 7%
http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/04/26/senator-wamatangi-secures-jubilee-ticket-for-august-8-polls_c1550774


So what happened here?
I think outside tribal dynamics, Kenyans are generally distrustful and they tend to be dishonest during polling.

So our polls are relatively inaccurate. What is amusing is the hypocrisy I see with NASWA and Jubilee. They will trash them and pretend they don't matter but it's obvious they are spooked. They take the results seriously. Nobody should cheat you that Jubilee is not excited by the better 'scores' they are getting in Western and Coast or NASWA's fortunes in NBO. Clearly the polls mean something.
2 Timothy 2:4  No man that warreth entangleth himself with the affairs of this life; that he may please him who hath chosen him to be a soldier.

Offline Kadame5

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Re: IPSOS Witchcraft Released
« Reply #16 on: July 23, 2017, 10:06:18 PM »
Looking at IPSOS and Infotrak, I don't think either are bribed to cook results, I lean towards Pundits theory of tribal stratification. They miss on this and they get it bad.

County polls in homogeneous counties should be more accurate,right? But there's one on Jubilee primaries that they got it bad and good.

Kabogo performed dismally 70K vs 354K
http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/04/26/waititu-wins-kiambu-seat-with-353604-votes-against-kabogos-69916_c1550534

Yet he had a 48% lead on Baba Yao's 31%. Even when you factor the huge Undecided, nothing explains how he lost it. Some hypothesized he was rigged out
http://infotrakresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/KIAMBU-COUNTYTRAK-APRIL-2017-FIN.pdf

Women Rep I think it was on point
http://upesinews.co.ke/2017/04/26/gathoni-muchomba-wins-kiambu-county-women-rep-jubilee-ticket/

But on Senators, it was totally off. The incumbent Wamatangi was leading the poll with 49% while number 2 had 7%. 40% were undecided. Yet come the primaries and while he won with 206K, the 7% number 2 had a whole 178K. It's hard to argue that a better portion of 40% suddenly went for the mr 7%
http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/04/26/senator-wamatangi-secures-jubilee-ticket-for-august-8-polls_c1550774


So what happened here?
I think outside tribal dynamics, Kenyans are generally distrustful and they tend to be dishonest during polling.

So our polls are relatively inaccurate. What is amusing is the hypocrisy I see with NASWA and Jubilee. They will trash them and pretend they don't matter but it's obvious they are spooked. They take the results seriously. Nobody should cheat you that Jubilee is not excited by the better 'scores' they are getting in Western and Coast or NASWA's fortunes in NBO. Clearly the polls mean something.
There maybe something to this theory. It's the same thing that happened with Brexit n Trump. People, probably out of embarrassment, lied to pollstars. I don't know why Kenyans would lie though, but it's a credible theory. Personally, Brexit n Trump convinced me to ignore opinion polls forever more. I just cant bring myself to take them seriously after that. I don't believe they are cooked. I just don't think they can tell us about the results of the vote.

Offline Kichwa

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Re: IPSOS Witchcraft Released
« Reply #17 on: July 23, 2017, 10:13:09 PM »
Of course, MOAS is to you what pebbles are to a witchdoctor.

What makes you think you will NOT be the one crying rigged. Your world is stuck in 2013.  A lot has changed my friend.  The number to watch is 61% of Kenyans believe Ouruto is taking this country in the wrong direction. Only 23% think we are headed in the right direction.  You should be very worried about that because that is how it may end up breaking.

Msema kweli is 8.8.2017. Of course you'll cry it's rigged even when overwhelming evidence will shows it isn't. 8.8.2017 we will know btw Ambitho & MOAS who was right. Mere 15 days.

Spin, spin, spin. Is there anything you do not spin. You sound like a used car salesperson.

"I have done my job and I will not change anything dead or a live" Malonza

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: IPSOS Witchcraft Released
« Reply #18 on: July 23, 2017, 10:18:05 PM »
Vooke...info track is normally crappy.Synovate are better...so I am not suprised they got it wrong

Offline vooke

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Re: IPSOS Witchcraft Released
« Reply #19 on: July 23, 2017, 10:19:22 PM »
Looking at IPSOS and Infotrak, I don't think either are bribed to cook results, I lean towards Pundits theory of tribal stratification. They miss on this and they get it bad.

County polls in homogeneous counties should be more accurate,right? But there's one on Jubilee primaries that they got it bad and good.

Kabogo performed dismally 70K vs 354K
http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/04/26/waititu-wins-kiambu-seat-with-353604-votes-against-kabogos-69916_c1550534

Yet he had a 48% lead on Baba Yao's 31%. Even when you factor the huge Undecided, nothing explains how he lost it. Some hypothesized he was rigged out
http://infotrakresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/KIAMBU-COUNTYTRAK-APRIL-2017-FIN.pdf

Women Rep I think it was on point
http://upesinews.co.ke/2017/04/26/gathoni-muchomba-wins-kiambu-county-women-rep-jubilee-ticket/

But on Senators, it was totally off. The incumbent Wamatangi was leading the poll with 49% while number 2 had 7%. 40% were undecided. Yet come the primaries and while he won with 206K, the 7% number 2 had a whole 178K. It's hard to argue that a better portion of 40% suddenly went for the mr 7%
http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/04/26/senator-wamatangi-secures-jubilee-ticket-for-august-8-polls_c1550774


So what happened here?
I think outside tribal dynamics, Kenyans are generally distrustful and they tend to be dishonest during polling.

So our polls are relatively inaccurate. What is amusing is the hypocrisy I see with NASWA and Jubilee. They will trash them and pretend they don't matter but it's obvious they are spooked. They take the results seriously. Nobody should cheat you that Jubilee is not excited by the better 'scores' they are getting in Western and Coast or NASWA's fortunes in NBO. Clearly the polls mean something.
There maybe something to this theory. It's the same thing that happened with Brexit n Trump. People, probably out of embarrassment, lied to pollstars. I don't know why Kenyans would lie though, but it's a credible theory. Personally, Brexit n Trump convinced me to ignore opinion polls forever more. I just cant bring myself to take them seriously after that. I don't believe they are cooked. I just don't think they can tell us about the results of the vote.
Why lie? Probably because our political views are driven by tribe which is quite primitive and we know it.

Look at this forum; there are those who cling to Baba primarily because he is their kinsmen or is closest to their ethnically, or because say they feel Kikuyus have been at the helm for the longest....but nobody will say that; they will spin yarns about corruption and unemployment.

If that is uncomfortable, think about Obama. It's not his eloquence that won niggas, it was his skin. But how many educated black men will admit as such? Or a better example is Obama's popularity post election. Blacks probably stuck with him regardless of his failures while whites were more critical of him purely for his skin.

2 Timothy 2:4  No man that warreth entangleth himself with the affairs of this life; that he may please him who hath chosen him to be a soldier.