Herman Manyora MOAS:Jubilee is losing

[vooke]

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In a nutshell,
-Rutto delivers something in South Rift

-Bandit counties like Baringo,Turkana,Elgeyo Marakwet,LaikipiaSamburu..., all reeling from extrajudicial killings are NASWAd

-The KANU factor

-Nyambene and Tharaka are NASWAd in Mt Kenya plus the place is yet to benefit from kamwana...

-The impossibility of getting the 'necessary' top-up votes from Luo,Luhya,Kamba and Coastal communities (like they did in 2013?)

-Dwindling fortunes in Maasai & NEP


https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001247979/opposition-outsmarting-jubilee-in-campaigns

Not bad for a keynote speaker at Babu's book launch

[RV Pundit]

Wishful thinking.

[Omollo]

Wishful thinking.

Pundit

I would have expected a more robust response with facts. You dislike when others dismiss your own MOAS as witchcraft but here you are...

Uhuru was in Lamu, gave money and food publicly as has now become normal for Jubilee but when he mounted the stage to call for Jubilee he got NASA. The same happened in Kilifi and Mombasa. He was humiliated in Kisii and Nyamira forcing the cancellation of many rallies and resorted to mass transportation of the "Red Army" an ever expanding standing army of youth being transported from one rally to another all over the country for 527 per day plus food.

So on the loss of TOP UP I say Manyora is spot on.

The question of Baringo and other RV counties mired in violence is obvious. First the Shoot to Kill order is resented by all the sides in the clashes. When you go to Pokot, the decision to by Ruto to be seen dishing out guns to their "enemies" has rubbed them the wrong way. It led to an urgent and rushed harambee to seek "defensive" weapons from outside Kenya.

Ruto is therefore toxic in Baringo on his own and add the supporters of Gideon in both Pokot and Baringo and you have a problem. I think Elgeyo Marakwet is gone too.

The idea that people would jeer Ruto but vote for Uhuru so Ruto - the man they hate - remains in office is a bit of a stretch. Unless you want to tell me that is possible and likely.

[Omollo]

[vooke]

Wishful thinking.

Pundit

I would have expected a more robust response with facts. You dislike when others dismiss your own MOAS as witchcraft but here you are...

Uhuru was in Lamu, gave money and food publicly as has now become normal for Jubilee but when he mounted the stage to call for Jubilee he got NASA. The same happened in Kilifi and Mombasa. He was humiliated in Kisii and Nyamira forcing the cancellation of many rallies and resorted to mass transportation of the "Red Army" an ever expanding standing army of youth being transported from one rally to another all over the country for 527 per day plus food.

So on the loss of TOP UP I say Manyora is spot on.

The question of Baringo and other RV counties mired in violence is obvious. First the Shoot to Kill order is resented by all the sides in the clashes. When you go to Pokot, the decision to by Ruto to be seen dishing out guns to their "enemies" has rubbed them the wrong way. It led to an urgent and rushed harambee to seek "defensive" weapons from outside Kenya.

Ruto is therefore toxic in Baringo on his own and add the supporters of Gideon in both Pokot and Baringo and you have a problem. I think Elgeyo Marakwet is gone too.

The idea that people would jeer Ruto but vote for Uhuru so Ruto - the man they hate - remains in office is a bit of a stretch. Unless you want to tell me that is possible and likely.

Where on earth does he get the idea that for Uhuru to win he needs 20% from 'Luhya,Kamba,Kisii, and Coastal communities'?

Manyora is a NASWA apologist and he really struggles to mask it

[Omollo]

You problem is comprehension. Simple things just don't seem to penetrate your thick skull. Let me try to help (amid the storm of stones you will throw):

Uhuru won in 2013 by getting:

1. GEMA
2. KAMATUSA vote
2. An average of 20% in each of the  Top Up Counties

For this he managed a thin victory in the first round.

That, he says has changed.

Your beef is that Uhuru does not need the top up votes he got in 2013. Well then I really wonder if you ever read and comprehend anything. Go through Pundit's MOAS again and see how he arrives at 53% then re-read the shit you posted.

This guy is thick jameni! I wonder who used to write for him those theology posts he bored me with here at some point.

Where on earth does he get the idea that for Uhuru to win he needs 20% from 'Luhya,Kamba,Kisii, and Coastal communities'?

Manyora is a NASWA apologist and he really struggles to mask it

[RV Pundit]

What is there to critically examine - this is not MOAS - but wishful thinking - I need someone to put figures out there that come from somewhere - tribal arithmatics, key political players, opinion polls, crowds, social media, historical voting trends,name it

[vooke]

You problem is comprehension. Simple things just don't seem to penetrate your thick skull. Let me try to help (amid the storm of stones you will throw):

Uhuru won in 2013 by getting:

1. GEMA
2. KAMATUSA vote
2. An average of 20% in each of the  Top Up Counties

For this he managed a thin victory in the first round.

That, he says has changed.

Your beef is that Uhuru does not need the top up votes he got in 2013. Well then I really wonder if you ever read and comprehend anything. Go through Pundit's MOAS again and see how he arrives at 53% then re-read the shit you posted.

This guy is thick jameni! I wonder who used to write for him those theology posts he bored me with here at some point.

Where on earth does he get the idea that for Uhuru to win he needs 20% from 'Luhya,Kamba,Kisii, and Coastal communities'?

Manyora is a NASWA apologist and he really struggles to mask it

It's a lie that Uhuru garnered an average of 20% among Luhya,Kisii,Kamba and coastal 'communities' in 2013

Kamba communities (Machakos,Kitui,Makueni) gave 9%
Coastal communities (Kwale,Kilifi,Mombasa,Taita,Tana River,Lamu) gave 22%
Luhya (Busia,Bungoma,Vihiga,Kakamega) gave 5%
Kisii (Nyamira,Kisii) gave 28%

About 15% on average and not 20%. He's exaggerating Jubilee deficiencies in these areas

[Omollo]

I agree now that your wording of your opprobrium is much clearer.

However figures may be blown out of proportion but Uhuru did not have much of a majority votes that he could forgo any and stand strong. Before the Kuria case, he hung by 8000 votes. Now his 5% (66,000) in Western denied would have caused him ulcers.

If we go by Pundit's 100K (after Kuria - which I need to verify due to Pundit's recent tendency to fudge and misstate simple facts for political advantage) the Kamba vote is not that insignificant. The truth is without the top up votes, we could have had a runoff at best for Uhuru.

That said, I think Uhuru lost the 2013 elections badly and wouldn't have made it with Isaac Hassan.

One of my fantasies is to have Isaac Hassan in an NIS torture chamber having bicycle tyre tube rubber bands tied tightly around his balls as he begs to be allowed to reveal how he rigged.

It's a lie that Uhuru garnered an average of 20% among Luhya,Kisii,Kamba and coastal 'communities' in 2013

Kamba communities (Machakos,Kitui,Makueni) gave 9%
Coastal communities (Kwale,Kilifi,Mombasa,Taita,Tana River,Lamu) gave 22%
Luhya (Busia,Bungoma,Vihiga,Kakamega) gave 5%
Kisii (Nyamira,Kisii) gave 28%

About 15% on average and not 20%. He's exaggerating Jubilee deficiencies in these areas

[vooke]

I agree now that your wording of your opprobrium is much clearer.

However figures may be blown out of proportion but Uhuru did not have much of a majority votes that he could forgo any and stand strong. Before the Kuria case, he hung by 8000 votes. Now his 5% (66,000) in Western denied would have caused him ulcers.

If we go by Pundit's 100K (after Kuria - which I need to verify due to Pundit's recent tendency to fudge and misstate simple facts for political advantage) the Kamba vote is not that insignificant. The truth is without the top up votes, we could have had a runoff at best for Uhuru.

That said, I think Uhuru lost the 2013 elections badly and wouldn't have made it with Isaac Hassan.

One of my fantasies is to have Isaac Hassan in an NIS torture chamber having bicycle tyre tube rubber bands tied tightly around his balls as he begs to be allowed to reveal how he rigged.

It's a lie that Uhuru garnered an average of 20% among Luhya,Kisii,Kamba and coastal 'communities' in 2013

Kamba communities (Machakos,Kitui,Makueni) gave 9%
Coastal communities (Kwale,Kilifi,Mombasa,Taita,Tana River,Lamu) gave 22%
Luhya (Busia,Bungoma,Vihiga,Kakamega) gave 5%
Kisii (Nyamira,Kisii) gave 28%

About 15% on average and not 20%. He's exaggerating Jubilee deficiencies in these areas

On exactly how far Uhuru exceeded 50% do the maths

Total presidential ballots cast- 12,330,028
Spoilt ballots-108,975
Valid votes - 12,221,053

Uhunye-6,173,433

His votes rose from 50.07% to 50.51%. 0.51% is 62,907.

So you're right; he Was daylights away from a runoff.

But he had no pointmant in Western and he never visited there. Coast campaigns were next to nonexistent. Ngilu delivered nothing in Ukambani so she won't be missed

[Omollo]

As your own figures show a loss of 62K votes would have seen a runoff.

That said The NIS campaigned for Uhuru aggressively.

On exactly how far Uhuru exceeded 50% do the maths

Total presidential ballots cast- 12,330,028
Spoilt ballots-108,975
Valid votes - 12,221,053

Uhunye-6,173,433

His votes rose from 50.07% to 50.51%. 0.51% is 62,907.

So you're right; he Was daylights away from a runoff.

But he had no pointmant in Western and he never visited there. Coast campaigns were next to nonexistent. Ngilu delivered nothing in Ukambani so she won't be missed

[RV Pundit]

Western was pretty bad after he betrayed MaDVD like a boy. I mean their biggest pointman was former Bundalangi Mp - Raphael Wanjala & Stanley Livondo - now oppinion polls are consistently (couple of both Infotrak & Ipsos) showing Uhuru at 30% of western - has strong backing of New Ford Kenya Grp (Bungoma-Tranzoia),  some key men in Kakamega and Busia. I mean it's only in Vihiga where Jubilee are dead on arrival.

Coast was pretty bad - It was token Balala & Kambi  doing all the bidding.

As for Isiolo, Marsabit & NEP - Raila had huge upper-hand - now ODM is completely totally out except maybe in Wajir & part of Garissa - it competition btw Jubilee & Frontier party&  Kanu up there.

But he had no pointmant in Western and he never visited there. Coast campaigns were next to nonexistent. Ngilu delivered nothing in Ukambani so she won't be missed

[vooke]

As your own figures show a loss of 62K votes would have seen a runoff.

That said The NIS campaigned for Uhuru aggressively.

On exactly how far Uhuru exceeded 50% do the maths

Total presidential ballots cast- 12,330,028
Spoilt ballots-108,975
Valid votes - 12,221,053

Uhunye-6,173,433

His votes rose from 50.07% to 50.51%. 0.51% is 62,907.

So you're right; he Was daylights away from a runoff.

But he had no pointmant in Western and he never visited there. Coast campaigns were next to nonexistent. Ngilu delivered nothing in Ukambani so she won't be missed

ICC stigma cost them many votes as well

We can go back and forth on conspiracies

[Omollo]

I see nowhere in western where Uhuru will get votes. His Jirongo project to repeat the Mudavadi betrayal of cord hasn't taken off due to cash flow problems.

Musikari kombo is finally rotten. Lusaka is damaged goods. Eugene Wamalwa is a source ridicule wherever he appears. Washiali has finally given in after squandering all the cash and sticking Uhuru in Bukungu stadium in an empty Kakamega.

In Busia The SiGIRi bridge did jubilee in badly. Anyway the deal between Khayo, Teso, Samia and Marachi is intact. The bukusu will get one parliamentary seat while the Luo have to contend with Two MCAs in exchange for voting out Ababu - which they could still have done for free.

Bungoma considers itself the leader of western and the foundation of the second liberation. They sent Kibaki-Loving Mukhisa Kituyi home in ignominy. If one has followed history, Eugene is a beneficiary of the same arrangement. He has never won a seat in luhyaland only being rigged-in in 2007 and since then avoided humiliation by staying out.

I am sure Uhuru realized and trashed the plan to sponsor him for governorship in Nairobi. He like Mudavadi wants to be given things. If that's who pundit banks on for 30% I gladly pin up the moas for ridicule next month.

One thing I realize is that perhaps jubilee plans to give itself 30% through remote voting and all this is to immunize us ahead of the theft.

[Nefertiti]

I don't see much hope for Jubilee in Western either - Jubilee has pawns for foot soldiers. Unlike the Coast where title deeds have rained nothing significant has changed in Western to benefit Jubilee. Lusaka is no Mutua. Only Mudavadi's move to NASA founder which has sealed Jubilee's fate. Looks more like 3% from 5% last round.

[RV Pundit]

Uhuru in Taita Taveta county

[RV Pundit]

JUbilee will do well in western compared to 2013(5% - mostly Mt elgon & diaspora kikuyus). NFK brigade were rewarded while ANC (MaDVD) were rejected. I think Jubilee will get 1/3 Bukusu votes - Bunguma & Tranzoia- and the Wanga vote in Mumias (Mumias east, Navakholo, Matungu and possibly Mumias West). I don't think Ababu & Okemo will do much in Busia - Jubilee will also score zero in Vihiga after rejecting maDVD. Opinion polls have been showing Jubilee doing about 20-30% for quite some time. NASA would be buried if it got there....Jubilee will definitely improve their 5%.

[vooke]

I see nowhere in western where Uhuru will get votes. His Jirongo project to repeat the Mudavadi betrayal of cord hasn't taken off due to cash flow problems.

Musikari kombo is finally rotten. Lusaka is damaged goods. Eugene Wamalwa is a source ridicule wherever he appears. Washiali has finally given in after squandering all the cash and sticking Uhuru in Bukungu stadium in an empty Kakamega.

In Busia The SiGIRi bridge did jubilee in badly. Anyway the deal between Khayo, Teso, Samia and Marachi is intact. The bukusu will get one parliamentary seat while the Luo have to contend with Two MCAs in exchange for voting out Ababu - which they could still have done for free.

Bungoma considers itself the leader of western and the foundation of the second liberation. They sent Kibaki-Loving Mukhisa Kituyi home in ignominy. If one has followed history, Eugene is a beneficiary of the same arrangement. He has never won a seat in luhyaland only being rigged-in in 2007 and since then avoided humiliation by staying out.

I am sure Uhuru realized and trashed the plan to sponsor him for governorship in Nairobi. He like Mudavadi wants to be given things. If that's who pundit banks on for 30% I gladly pin up the moas for ridicule next month.

One thing I realize is that perhaps jubilee plans to give itself 30% through remote voting and all this is to immunize us ahead of the theft.

Given Jubilee did NOTHING in 2013 other than pissing the region off over MaDVD, it's hard to see the rationale for a poorer performance now with all the henchmen(however fickle) and visits to the place.

Bear in mind Jubilee fared worst. Once you hit the bottom, you can only move up. All Jubilee needs is a better performance than in 2013, and they sure as hell are getting it