FINAL MOTHER OF ALL SPREADSHEETS (MOAS) FOR 2017 ELECTION.

[RV Pundit]

Why not wait for mere 3 weeks and don't come crying rigged

[Nefertiti]

Reminds me of a time Atwoli hired some people to conduct "research" to identify the Luhya spokesman. The results, which were a "secret" were locked up in a bank vault and presented on the day at Bukhungu. Noone had seen the results beforehand, not even Atwoli himself, as evidenced by the sealed and chain-wrapped briefcase. The secret results were revealed in front of cameras and the public... although all Luhya leaders had been invited only Madvd showed up... Weta, Ababu, Lusaka, Jirongo, Khalwale were a no-show. Miraculously, Madvd and the host Oparanya had been identified as the most popular leaders through this scientific research...

[RV Pundit]

Reminds me of a time Atwoli hired some people to conduct "research" to identify the Luhya spokesman. The results, which were a "secret" were locked up in a bank vault and presented on the day at Bukhungu. Noone had seen the results beforehand, not even Atwoli himself, as evidenced by the sealed and chain-wrapped briefcase. The secret results were revealed in front of cameras and the public... although all Luhya leaders had been invited only Madvd showed up... Weta, Ababu, Lusaka, Jirongo, Khalwale were a no-show. Miraculously, Madvd and the host Oparanya had been identified as the most popular leaders through this scientific research...

I am every ready to explain why I assign figure x or y but won't change this because it's free final

[Kichwa]

Red:  So, ouruto needed an issue namely- "ICC" -to bring the tribes together? Now, if ICC brought Kalenjins and Kikuyus together, do you think another issue can bring them apart?.    If an issue(s) can bring tribes apart/together then tell me,  what is King?, is it the "tribe" or the Issue?.  It appears to me that issues create tribal alliances/rivalry/enmity and not the other way round.  This means that MOAS should be based on issues and not tribes. However,  since the issues change and are more difficult to nail down, we fall for the easy explanation-TRIBE, because its is the low laying fruit explanation of all that ails Kenya- a constant and easy to blame/give credit to and manipulate. I call it intellectual laziness.

1. ICC brought two tribal blocs together, in its place we have incumbency. RVGEMA will vote them back almost to man to protect their power. Whether they benefit from it is another matter.

2. Tribe remains KING in Kenya no doubt. NASA is nothing but another tribal outfit. It is the perceived votes or control over their respective tribes that earned them those positions. Only Baba is relatively national meaning he has major appeal outside his kinsmen. Rutto was injected in as an attempt to chip off Kalenjins. So tribe was and still is a factor.

3. There's zero evidence of rigging in 2013. The numbers in parliament if nothing else tells it all, not to mention hordes of international observers. If you believe in Baba theories, then you probably subscribe to chemtrails nonsense.

4. I'd rate their performance at 5/6 in a scale of 1-10. Which means they will impress as well as piss off in equal measure, which means their performance is unlikely to affect their votes


The MOAS is a sensible prediction in my opinion.
[/quote]

[vooke]

Red:  So oruto needed and issue "ICC" to bring the tribes together? And NASA needed an issue (s) " we are left out/DP/unga/corruption/ etc."  to bring the NASA tribes together. So ICC brought Kalenjins and Kikuyus together, do you think another issue can bring them apart?.    Now tell me, what is King, is it the "tribe" or the Issue?

1. ICC brought two tribal blocs together, in its place we have incumbency. RVGEMA will vote them back almost to man to protect their power. Whether they benefit from it is another matter.

2. Tribe remains KING in Kenya no doubt. NASA is nothing but another tribal outfit. It is the perceived votes or control over their respective tribes that earned them those positions. Only Baba is relatively national meaning he has major appeal outside his kinsmen. Rutto was injected in as an attempt to chip off Kalenjins. So tribe was and still is a factor.

3. There's zero evidence of rigging in 2013. The numbers in parliament if nothing else tells it all, not to mention hordes of international observers. If you believe in Baba theories, then you probably subscribe to chemtrails nonsense.

4. I'd rate their performance at 5/6 in a scale of 1-10. Which means they will impress as well as piss off in equal measure, which means their performance is unlikely to affect their votes


The MOAS is a sensible prediction in my opinion.

[/quote]

Tribe and issue are not mutually exclusive; they complement.  Look at the Somalis. The issue is marginalization which drove them to hostility against governments. The solution is including many of their leaders into government. Is this clear?

GEMA have remained a bloc for years. PEV since 1992 and especially 2007 drove a wedge between them and Kales. ICC brought them together; their best were being crucified for or in their behalf. ICC was among the ISSUES that brought the TRIBES together.

If you don't get it then ponder this;tribes have issues real or imagined, urgent or historical. You warm to tribes using issues. Whether you resolve the issues is another matter.

Incumbency is a real issue. Kales voted Moi to man due to this issue. In 2007, Okoyus voted Kibaki due to the same Incumbency issue.  In 2013, RVGEMA voted the suspects because they were convinced they were best placed to deal with their issues....and nauseum

[Kichwa]

The one thing that can make tribes come together or fall apart is issues. Kikuyus and Luos were bossom buddies during the fight for independence then the Jaramogi/Kenyatta ideological differences set them apart.  Kikuyus and Luos then came together again to fight Moi but then separated during the Matiba/jaramogi fallout. Then 2002 we saw them come back together again because of "kibaki tosha, and Kanu fatigue", then another fallout.  What makes you think the Kalenjin/ Kikuyu alliance is unique and will last for ever.  Any issue can split Kalenjin and Kikuyus anytime and make them bitter enemies just as easily as Ruto's support for Ouru made them buddies after Kalenjins slaughtered kikuyus like chicken during the 2008 PEV.  Do not kid yourself ma brada-mamabo yabadilika. If Ruto or Ouru drops dead today, the MOAS goes through the window-that's how unreliable and issue dependent it is.  MOAS is not based on tribe but it is based on the issues uniting the tribes remaining constant, if the issues change then MOAS changes.

Red:  So oruto needed and issue "ICC" to bring the tribes together? And NASA needed an issue (s) " we are left out/DP/unga/corruption/ etc."  to bring the NASA tribes together. So ICC brought Kalenjins and Kikuyus together, do you think another issue can bring them apart?.    Now tell me, what is King, is it the "tribe" or the Issue?

1. ICC brought two tribal blocs together, in its place we have incumbency. RVGEMA will vote them back almost to man to protect their power. Whether they benefit from it is another matter.

2. Tribe remains KING in Kenya no doubt. NASA is nothing but another tribal outfit. It is the perceived votes or control over their respective tribes that earned them those positions. Only Baba is relatively national meaning he has major appeal outside his kinsmen. Rutto was injected in as an attempt to chip off Kalenjins. So tribe was and still is a factor.

3. There's zero evidence of rigging in 2013. The numbers in parliament if nothing else tells it all, not to mention hordes of international observers. If you believe in Baba theories, then you probably subscribe to chemtrails nonsense.

4. I'd rate their performance at 5/6 in a scale of 1-10. Which means they will impress as well as piss off in equal measure, which means their performance is unlikely to affect their votes


The MOAS is a sensible prediction in my opinion.

Tribe and issue are not mutually exclusive; they complement.  Look at the Somalis. The issue is marginalization which drove them to hostility against governments. The solution is including many of their leaders into government. Is this clear?

GEMA have remained a bloc for years. PEV since 1992 and especially 2007 drove a wedge between them and Kales. ICC brought them together; their best were being crucified for or in their behalf. ICC was among the ISSUES that brought the TRIBES together.

If you don't get it then ponder this;tribes have issues real or imagined, urgent or historical. You warm to tribes using issues. Whether you resolve the issues is another matter.

Incumbency is a real issue. Kales voted Moi to man due to this issue. In 2007, Okoyus voted Kibaki due to the same Incumbency issue.  In 2013, RVGEMA voted the suspects because they were convinced they were best placed to deal with their issues....and nauseum
[/quote]

[vooke]

The one thing that can make tribes come together or fall apart is issues. Kikuyus and Luos were bossom buddies during the fight for independence then the Jaramogi/Kenyatta ideological differences set them apart.  Kikuyus and Luos then came together again to fight Moi but then separated during the Matiba/jaramogi fallout. Then 2002 we saw them come back together again because of "kibaki tosha, and Kanu fatigue", then another fallout.  What makes you think the Kalenjin/ Kikuyu alliance is unique and will last for ever.  Any issue can split Kalenjin and Kikuyus anytime and make them bitter enemies just as easily as Ruto's support for Ouru made them buddies after Kalenjins slaughtered kikuyus like chicken during the 2008 PEV.  Do not kid yourself ma brada-mamabo yabadilika. If Ruto or Ouru drops dead today, the MOAS goes through the window-that's how unreliable and issue dependent it is.  MOAS is not based on tribe but it is based on the issues uniting the tribes remaining constant, if the issues change then MOAS changes.

Red:  So oruto needed and issue "ICC" to bring the tribes together? And NASA needed an issue (s) " we are left out/DP/unga/corruption/ etc."  to bring the NASA tribes together. So ICC brought Kalenjins and Kikuyus together, do you think another issue can bring them apart?.    Now tell me, what is King, is it the "tribe" or the Issue?

1. ICC brought two tribal blocs together, in its place we have incumbency. RVGEMA will vote them back almost to man to protect their power. Whether they benefit from it is another matter.

2. Tribe remains KING in Kenya no doubt. NASA is nothing but another tribal outfit. It is the perceived votes or control over their respective tribes that earned them those positions. Only Baba is relatively national meaning he has major appeal outside his kinsmen. Rutto was injected in as an attempt to chip off Kalenjins. So tribe was and still is a factor.

3. There's zero evidence of rigging in 2013. The numbers in parliament if nothing else tells it all, not to mention hordes of international observers. If you believe in Baba theories, then you probably subscribe to chemtrails nonsense.

4. I'd rate their performance at 5/6 in a scale of 1-10. Which means they will impress as well as piss off in equal measure, which means their performance is unlikely to affect their votes


The MOAS is a sensible prediction in my opinion.

Tribe and issue are not mutually exclusive; they complement.  Look at the Somalis. The issue is marginalization which drove them to hostility against governments. The solution is including many of their leaders into government. Is this clear?

GEMA have remained a bloc for years. PEV since 1992 and especially 2007 drove a wedge between them and Kales. ICC brought them together; their best were being crucified for or in their behalf. ICC was among the ISSUES that brought the TRIBES together.

If you don't get it then ponder this;tribes have issues real or imagined, urgent or historical. You warm to tribes using issues. Whether you resolve the issues is another matter.

Incumbency is a real issue. Kales voted Moi to man due to this issue. In 2007, Okoyus voted Kibaki due to the same Incumbency issue.  In 2013, RVGEMA voted the suspects because they were convinced they were best placed to deal with their issues....and nauseum

[/quote]

I'm not saying the RVGEMA juggernaut is eternal, just that it is intact for now.

As I said, MOAS is a clever or intelligent guesstimate. Just watched Baba saying they have done polling and have 'facts' proving they are winning bla de bla. Point is you can wait till after nane nane to know the winner or you can employ reason and make a prediction.

As you rightly said, so many things can change between now and nane nane that leaves MOAS unreliable, but MOAS is predicated on ceteris paribus, meaning as it is, Uhuruto are headed for a hard fought victory. I will quote Baba and say that nothing short of a miracle can see them lose this thing

[Kichwa]

 In summary all Pundit is saying is that things have not changed significantly enough to change the 2013 voting patterns. He makes it sound sophisticated by making and coloring what looks like a mathematical table with numbers based on the last voting patterns. If you want to sound like you know what you are doing, just throw around some numbers. He then he evokes the Solomonic  mantra of Kenyan politics" all voting is tribal". It means absolutely nothing when you think about it. It reminds me of the sports commentator who was asked which team will win and he posed, and with the tone and mannerisms of a sage "predicted" "the team that scores the most goals will win tonight". I would respect Pundits opinion if he just said without MOAS, that he believes strongly  that the issues that brought kalenjins and Kikuyus to vote together in 2013 are still intact and will deliver them victory. I may disagree but I will respect that as a valid opinion. Trying to make an obvious political opinion to be a scientific fact is the height of arrogance.

[RV Pundit]

You're misrepresenting issues - for each row - I have analyzed carefully the factors that will sway votes - assign them weights - and given the final percentage. That is why I have given Raila whopping 14% of Bomet - about 40,000 votes from 10,000 votes he got in 2013. I have for instance increased Uhuru votes in Bungoma - because I think NFK wing of AMANI have moved to Uhuru while ANC part moved to Raila. If you go to NEP - I have given Jubilee big win in Mandera and small win in Garissa - but given NASA a win in Wajir - this because of the clan factor in somali politics & how the clan leadership has aligned - Mandera is still Jubilee because the leading mandera leadership is split btw Jubilee & Jubilee supporting Frontier Party - in Garissa - the alliance of Duale's clan Abudwak (the majority) -of garisa, balambla, fafi & samawadhal(Yusu Haji) -ijara - mean Jubilee will carry leaving Maalim/Nathif clan of Lagdera/Daadab on it's trail. In wajir - the degodia are the majority - the governor comes from there and has been endorsed by the clan - so I think NASA will win there and Ahmed will retain his seat.

We can go on and on - but for every percentage I have assigned - I have researched and carefully thought about the issues, the actors and factors.

Kenya tribal or ethnic politics is easy to read -you just watch the leaders - if Raila moves - Luos everywhere move with him - whatever the issue - if Ruto moves - like he did with NO campaign - people will sheeply move with him -  after you've knocked down the major players - then you go to regional or small time tribal kings for small tribes - and you just need to know who has influence here or there -- and you can make a prediction - --- that is pretty much rough moas - then you refine it by looking at other issues or small time players who can dent votes here or there .

In summary all Pundit is saying is that things have not changed significantly enough to change the 2013 voting patterns. He makes it sound sophisticated by making and coloring what looks like a mathematical table with numbers based on the last voting patterns. If you want to sound like you know what you are doing, just throw around some numbers. He then he evokes the Solomonic  mantra of Kenyan politics" all voting is tribal". It means absolutely nothing when you think about it. It reminds me of the sports commentator who was asked which team will win and he posed, and with the tone and mannerisms of a sage "predicted" "the team that scores the most goals will win tonight". I would respect Pundits opinion if he just said without MOAS, that he believes strongly  that the issues that brought kalenjins and Kikuyus to vote together in 2013 are still intact and will deliver them victory. I may disagree but I will respect that as a valid opinion. Trying to make an obvious political opinion to be a scientific fact is the height of arrogance.

[RV Pundit]

Robina - I am told Info-track has latest governor polling - here is Buzeki v Mandago.

[vooke]

Waaa..won't DPORK swallow his own words after publicly admonishing Buzeki?

[RV Pundit]

Why - either one of them is close to WSR - and would do just fine.
https://citizentv.co.ke/news/buzeki-leading-in-hotly-contested-uasin-gishu-race-pollster-170626/

Waaa..won't DPORK swallow his own words after publicly admonishing Buzeki?

[Kichwa]

Exactly, moving the numbers around and appearing to be objective is the rug you throw on the faces of the guillable while your bottom line remains the same-53% win for Ouru. You can just say you believe Ouru will win by 53% as your educated political opinion without trying to make it superior to the dueling political opinions of who is going to win. I am sure NASA people can produce a table showing that they will get 10 million votes.

[Omollo]

Exactly, moving the numbers around and appearing to be objective is the rug you throw on the faces of the guillable while your bottom line remains the same-53% win for Ouru. You can just say you believe Ouru will win by 53% as your educated political opinion without trying to make it superior to the dueling political opinions of who is going to win. I am sure NASA people can produce a table showing that they will get 10 million votes.

Guess what when the next cooked poll comes it will be 53%

[vooke]

Why - either one of them is close to WSR - and would do just fine.
https://citizentv.co.ke/news/buzeki-leading-in-hotly-contested-uasin-gishu-race-pollster-170626/

Waaa..won't DPORK swallow his own words after publicly admonishing Buzeki?

Roughly, seems like only Nandi are backing Mandago

[Nefertiti]

Pundit - is there a poll for Meru governor?

[Omollo]

I am very pleased with Uasin Gishu. Finally Ruto has to choose between sitting on burning embers or getting shafted. Whatever the the choice, his ass is gonna hurt real bad .

[RV Pundit]

Unlike Raila - Ruto never impose candidates on people - that is why he remain more popular in such a fractious tribe like Kalenjin with about 10 sub-tribes than Moi ever got. Uasin Gishu people have thrown out Ruto close friends before and even in this election - they lost quest to become MPs.

This is something Raila need to learn....oops it's too late.

Mandago is a foot solider - Buzeki is Ruto business partner.

I am very pleased with Uasin Gishu. Finally Ruto has to choose between sitting on burning embers or getting shafted. Whatever the the choice, his ass is gonna hurt real bad .

[RV Pundit]

Nope - and if they did they haven't yet shared - previously they have done lot more polls. The last poll in Meru was in April - and Munya was leading with 45% against Kiraitu 28%. That may give you some comfort however I believe Kiraitu will take it.

Pundit - is there a poll for Meru governor?

[Omollo]

Now if this does not beat logic, tell me what does!

Nope - and if they did they haven't yet shared - previously they have done lot more polls. The last poll in Meru was in April - and Munya was leading with 45% against Kiraitu 28%. That may give you some comfort however I believe Kiraitu will take it.

Pundit - is there a poll for Meru governor?