I get my % mainly from tribal arithmetic - and then I consider other factors - normally just to cross-check that tribal maths are indeed right. This opinion poll is just confirming what I know -
As for Nairobi - this repeat of 2013 - Sonko won Senator - by huge margin (coz he won GEMA+Kamba+ low-class ) - than Raila - who also won Nairobi - while Jubilee won the women rep.
Raila will win Nairobi (check MOAS) by small margin - 50% versus 47%.
Nairobi Gikiyu 29%,Akamba 17%,Luo 16%,Luhya 15%, - Uhuru 47% - Raila 50%.
My money is also on Sakaja winning this. Edwin Sifuna is just a nobody. He has no name recognition and is basically riding on Raila coat tails but Nairobi enjoy very slight advantage in Nairobi (which has a little more non-tribal base) - and Sifuna just need more than that - he couldn't hack Kanduyi for crying out loud.
I am also putting my money on Passaris - I think Shebesh will lose.
As always whether my punditry is good or bad will be known on 9th. Kidero will be in Asumbi before that.
You know where he plucks his percentages from, don't you by now?
He decided that Jubilee will be the first ruling party in Africa to win votes in the capital city. The very ANC lost Johannesburg, Tshwane (where Pretoria lies) and many other major cities but Jubilee will control Nairobi. There are just some things that define a fallen brain and that is one of them
Kidero Team would stand no chance if CORD had won in 2013. As of now, he is walking back in.
Miguna has no traction. Sonko lost the Luhyas and his anti-establishment credentials. He is too close to Uhuru and the Jubilee government. That comes with a price. His decision to openly screw Shebesh angered many traditionalist Luhyas.
Again, he paraded his Sonko Rescue. That was before he ran out of drug money and shut down most of his operations. he has tried to resuscitate it but the ongoing Jubilee cash crunch has affected him badly as Gout revealed.
But try getting a single one of these hard facts in some thick heads and you will find why people love to protect their stupidity.