This election may schock everyone

[Kichwa]

I think I already addressed that phenomenon. The reason behind that is the belief that a tribes mate will be better suited to care for their political interest. That is not uniquely Kenyan if you substitute tribe with race, regionalism, clan, religion and other groupings in other political theatres. In 2002 we had to Kikuyus at the head of the ticket and we saw some strange political strange bedfellows. 2022 may see ISO Ruto and WSR heading the national tickets then the whole tribal math is no longer as predictable.

MOON Ki,

I'll add that I have seen a few of the NASA rallies in Western.  They make generic criticisms of things like failed local industries and poor infrastructure that the jubilant has not delivered.  Maybe that is what Kichwa means by issues.

Yet in those same rallies, you will see them tell the crowd that demonic Messi and Weta will not be left out of government.  That those two will get very serious rewards so to speak.  They say this because they know that if either of these two go jubilant, their people will go with them, in-spite of everything in paragraph one.  Meaning that the issues can be dismissed at a moment's notice.

[MOON Ki]

Windy, that supports my theory. My theory is that its easy to predict the tribal votes when a Kenyatta and Jaramogi is running against each other however when as in 2002, the whole tribal mathematics becomes less predictable.

As I have stated a couple of times elsewhere, 2002 was an exceptional election-year in Kenya's history.   Moi had beaten the crap out of Kenyans for so long that they simply had to get him out.  A well-endorsed goat running against Moi would have won.  Kenyans had in fact been ready to get Moi out well before that, but "our man" thinking had always splintered the opposition.

Kibaki's 2002 election actually confirms-the tribal sheep theory.   Moi would never have lasted that long had he had to face serious Luo-Kikuyu unity.   Once Raila said "Kibaki tosha", Luos were in the bag----and not because they had suddenly discovered Kibaki's hitherto unknown merits---and Moi was going home. 

I think the tribal votes are actually quite predictable: just look at your calculations of "60% done, 40% swing".  In that regard, I don't see much change relative to 2013.   I see only only one issue for the Opposition: did it get enough of its supporters registered and with that can it ensure a sufficient turnout to have a "rig-proof" margin?

There are only two major unpredictable things for 2022: (a) whether Raila will still be in the picture, and (b)  whether Ruto's friends will knife him or not.    Those might affect where the "collective" votes go, but they does not necessarily change the tribal nature of maths.    In fact, the tribal maths gets really hot with Raila's "former votes" up for grabs and Ruto looking for a "big partner".    The biggest change I see in 2022 is what auctioneers call the "hammer price".   

I might have one more, but I think I'm mostly done with this thread, so I should say this: Kenya need less tribal thinking, better governance, etc.    Looking past the coming elections, I hope we can have more discussions here on how it might be possible to really change Kenya in a positive way.  For example, one thing that we really need is serious civic education; there is never the slightest interest in that,  but I can't think of a better starting point.   

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I think I already addressed that phenomenon. The reason behind that is the belief that a tribes mate will be better suited to care for their political interest. That is not uniquely Kenyan if you substitute tribe with race, regionalism, clan, religion and other groupings in other political theatres. In 2002 we had to Kikuyus at the head of the ticket and we saw some strange political strange bedfellows. 2022 may see ISO Ruto and WSR heading the national tickets then the whole tribal math is no longer as predictable.

MOON Ki,

I'll add that I have seen a few of the NASA rallies in Western.  They make generic criticisms of things like failed local industries and poor infrastructure that the jubilant has not delivered.  Maybe that is what Kichwa means by issues.

Yet in those same rallies, you will see them tell the crowd that demonic Messi and Weta will not be left out of government.  That those two will get very serious rewards so to speak.  They say this because they know that if either of these two go jubilant, their people will go with them, in-spite of everything in paragraph one.  Meaning that the issues can be dismissed at a moment's notice.

There is no better(or even other) explanation for the strange bedfellows in 2002 than tribalism.  For instance, most(all) Kikuyus I knew were behind Uhuru until Kibaki was toshwad and became the Kikuyu with the best chance.  Nothing to do with NARC or KANU.

[Kichwa]

If tribe was a leading reliable indicator on how a Kenyan would vote then you would be able to tell me now, knowing I am a luo, how I will vote in 2022 even without telling me who the candidates are. If Tuju were to ran on Jubilee ticket and Joho ran on NASA in 2022, can you predict with a degree of certainity that Tuju will get more  luo votes than Tuju based on their tribal affiliation alone.

The whole theory that Kenyans vote on tribal lines is not sustainable under close examination.

In 2002, Moi, the professor of politics, had his own tribal math, then Raila did "Kibaki Tosha" and Moi's tribal  math went south. Was that election decided by tribe or issues.  This is the best illustration  that the tribe is not even a reliable indicator otherwise Moi's  tribal math would have worked. 

The tribe is just a dressing or a weapon to deliver the political message.

I  just read an article about how the Kindiki brother's in Taraka Nithi are divided politically and yet they are all GEMA.  My brother and I are supporting Raila in 2017, however, I cannot assure you that my brother and I  will be voting for the same candidate in 2022 just because we are trbe mates.  How my brother and I vote in 2022 will depend on "other factors".  These "other factors" hold the key and not our tribal affiliation.

Tribe is therefore not a leading indicator  but a lagging indicator and that is why Pundit has to wait until almost two months to elections before he can come up with MOAS. I know he said he was waiting for the IEBC numbers but if he got the IEBC numbers before NASA and Jubilee picked their line up he would not be able to do the MOAS.   Tribe is just the dressing but that is all some of us see because we are intellectually lazy.

I think I already addressed that phenomenon. The reason behind that is the belief that a tribes mate will be better suited to care for their political interest. That is not uniquely Kenyan if you substitute tribe with race, regionalism, clan, religion and other groupings in other political theatres. In 2002 we had to Kikuyus at the head of the ticket and we saw some strange political strange bedfellows. 2022 may see ISO Ruto and WSR heading the national tickets then the whole tribal math is no longer as predictable.

MOON Ki,

I'll add that I have seen a few of the NASA rallies in Western.  They make generic criticisms of things like failed local industries and poor infrastructure that the jubilant has not delivered.  Maybe that is what Kichwa means by issues.

Yet in those same rallies, you will see them tell the crowd that demonic Messi and Weta will not be left out of government.  That those two will get very serious rewards so to speak.  They say this because they know that if either of these two go jubilant, their people will go with them, in-spite of everything in paragraph one.  Meaning that the issues can be dismissed at a moment's notice.

There is no better(or even other) explanation for the strange bedfellows in 2002 than tribalism.  For instance, most(all) Kikuyus I knew were behind Uhuru until Kibaki was toshwad and became the Kikuyu with the best chance.  Nothing to do with NARC or KANU.

[Kichwa]

If tribe was a leading reliable indicator on how a Kenyan would vote then you would be able to tell me now, knowing I am a luo, how I will vote in 2022 even without telling me who the candidates are. If Tuju were to ran on Jubilee ticket and Joho ran on NASA in 2022, can you predict with a degree of certainity that Tuju will get more  luo votes than Joho based on their tribal affiliation alone and that ideology will not play any role?.

The whole theory that Kenyans reliably vote on tribal lines is not sustainable under close examination.

In 2002, Moi, the professor of politics, had his own tribal math, then Raila did "Kibaki Tosha" and Moi's tribal  math went south. Was that election decided by tribe or issues.  This is the best illustration  that the tribe is not even a reliable indicator otherwise Moi's  tribal math would have worked. 

The tribe is just a dressing or a weapon to deliver the political message.

I  just read an article about how the Kindiki brother's in Taraka Nithi are divided politically and yet they are all GEMA.  My brother and I are supporting Raila in 2017, however, I cannot assure you that my brother and I  will be voting for the same candidate in 2022 just because we are trbe mates.  How my brother and I vote in 2022 will depend on "other factors".  These "other factors" hold the key and not our tribal affiliation.

Tribe is therefore not a leading indicator  but a lagging indicator and that is why Pundit has to wait until almost two months to elections before he can come up with MOAS. I know he said he was waiting for the IEBC numbers but if he got the IEBC numbers before NASA and Jubilee picked their line up he would not be able to do the MOAS.   Tribe is just the dressing but that is all some of us see because we are intellectually lazy.

I think I already addressed that phenomenon. The reason behind that is the belief that a tribes mate will be better suited to care for their political interest. That is not uniquely Kenyan if you substitute tribe with race, regionalism, clan, religion and other groupings in other political theatres. In 2002 we had to Kikuyus at the head of the ticket and we saw some strange political strange bedfellows. 2022 may see ISO Ruto and WSR heading the national tickets then the whole tribal math is no longer as predictable.

MOON Ki,

I'll add that I have seen a few of the NASA rallies in Western.  They make generic criticisms of things like failed local industries and poor infrastructure that the jubilant has not delivered.  Maybe that is what Kichwa means by issues.

Yet in those same rallies, you will see them tell the crowd that demonic Messi and Weta will not be left out of government.  That those two will get very serious rewards so to speak.  They say this because they know that if either of these two go jubilant, their people will go with them, in-spite of everything in paragraph one.  Meaning that the issues can be dismissed at a moment's notice.

There is no better(or even other) explanation for the strange bedfellows in 2002 than tribalism.  For instance, most(all) Kikuyus I knew were behind Uhuru until Kibaki was toshwad and became the Kikuyu with the best chance.  Nothing to do with NARC or KANU.

[Kadame5]

@Moon Ki, the way you come across when you are talking to people you disagree with is VEEEERRRY condescending, just to inform you. Ive noticed it when you are talking to Pundit especially, whom you seem to mock rather than disagree with. You are wont to assume this preacher air, like a bible thumper without a bible, honestly. I know this post will come across like it's unfriendly, but it's really not intended to be. Please check the way you talk to people you disagree with. Don't come across like you assume/you just know/its settled you are holier than thou and know so much better. As someone who expresses a sharp dislike of religion, I hope you understand that your manner of communicating disagreements comes across very pharisaical. You sound like you are trying to teach a child or someone you think is childish when you are talking to adults, none of whom are idiots. You did it to me a few weeks ago and I opted not to point it out then but really, I think it's something you need to check. Iyo tu.

[RV Pundit]

This is nonsense. The last 4.5yrs has been nothing than transformative. The only issue now is Unga otherwise Jubilee have over-delivered.

[Kichwa]

If tribe is the only indicator then it should not matter whether Jubilee delivered or not. As far as most of you are concerned Kenyans do not care about any issue except the tribe of the candidate.

This is nonsense. The last 4.5yrs has been nothing than transformative. The only issue now is Unga otherwise Jubilee have over-delivered.

[MOON Ki]

@Moon Ki, the way you come across when you are talking to people you disagree with is VEEEERRRY condescending, just to inform you. Ive noticed it when you are talking to Pundit especially, whom you seem to mock rather than disagree with.

You think so?  Would that be the same Pundit who served me the following in just one recent thread?

There you start with you ignorance. Why not google stuff. Why not do you homework.

Do your homework. Google. That is what we software engineers do. Help ignorant people look smart.

Okay this is just too much foolishness on a friday. You want me to help with English comprehension too?.

Perhaps I should instead be offering him blowjobs? 

As for Kichwa, he did get an apology, which Jesus apparently missed in the rush to denounce the Pharisee.

You are wont to assume this preacher air, like a bible thumper without a bible, honestly. I know this post will come across like it's unfriendly, but it's really not intended to be. Please check the way you talk to people you disagree with. Don't come across like you assume/you just know/its settled you are holier than thou and know so much better. As someone who expresses a sharp dislike of religion, I hope you understand that your manner of communicating disagreements comes across very pharisaical. You sound like you are trying to teach a child or someone you think is childish when you are talking to adults, none of whom are idiots. You did it to me a few weeks ago and I opted not to point it out then but really, I think it's something you need to check. Iyo tu.

As you read various comments on nipate.org, try applying the red standard to them. If you come across anyone who seems to assume or just know or ... you should take out your firimbi and do the needful. (Thank you for your valuable services to Nipate.

OK, you've expressed your views, for which just one sentence (or two at the most) would have sufficed.   Now run along and find something useful to do.

[RV Pundit]

I think you need to understand it more deeply. For Uhuru to win GEMA tribal vote - he has had to win & deliver issues - the same - for Ruto to win against Isaac/Gideon/others in Kalenjin land - he has to talk and deliver issues -that is how they've rose over the years from being MPS to PORK.If you fail to deliver (roads, schools, jobs, electricity, water)- votes will punish you - long before you become a tribal king. So yeah these issues matters to the base. Outside you tribal base - it probably matters only for 2-5% non-tribal kenyans. Whatever UhuRuto will do - Luos will not appreciate it. The same with Raila and say Kalenjin.

We are more nation of tribes. It like Canada and US - a canadian will be patriotic to his country - and doesn't care what Yankee POTUS do or whatever- he'd go to war for Canada - but within Canada -internally - issue-based politics do matter. The same with Kenya small nations.

If tribe is the only indicator then it should not matter whether Jubilee delivered or not. As far as most of you are concerned Kenyans do not care about any issue except the tribe of the candidate.

[Kichwa]

Ahaaa!  Now we are talking!!. I thought Kenyans do not care about anything but tribe. Now you are telling me that these tribal kingpins have to deliver something to get tribal votes. What comes first then, the delivery or the tribe?  Could it be that Luhyia's will be voting for Raila because they believe he would deliver to them more than Ouru or is it because Mdvd and Weta told them how to vote. According to your admission, it is evident that tribe is not a leading indicator but "delivery" seems to be.

If only tribe matters then  Why is  Joho and Iso Ruto the darling of NASA crowd and not Kidero or Kalonzo? Why is Duale the darling of Jubilee crowd. Could it be Possibly because of the way they articulate the issues/ideology that resonate with the NASA or  Jubilee crowd? Maybe the NASA and  Jubilee crowds actually have issues they care about and are not tribal voting machines as the elites perceive them to be. 

I think you need to understand it more deeply. For Uhuru to win GEMA tribal vote - he has had to win & deliver issues - the same - for Ruto to win against Isaac/Gideon/others in Kalenjin land - he has to talk and deliver issues -that is how they've rose over the years from being MPS to PORK.If you fail to deliver (roads, schools, jobs, electricity, water)- votes will punish you - long before you become a tribal king. So yeah these issues matters to the base. Outside you tribal base - it probably matters only for 2-5% non-tribal kenyans. Whatever UhuRuto will do - Luos will not appreciate it. The same with Raila and say Kalenjin.

We are more nation of tribes. It like Canada and US - a canadian will be patriotic to his country - and doesn't care what Yankee POTUS do or whatever- he'd go to war for Canada - but within Canada -internally - issue-based politics do matter. The same with Kenya small nations.

If tribe is the only indicator then it should not matter whether Jubilee delivered or not. As far as most of you are concerned Kenyans do not care about any issue except the tribe of the candidate.

[RV Pundit]

You desperate to force "issues" again because you've always believed Raila has the best "issues" - when in fact he he has nothing.

The are so many criterias that voters apply depending on the seat. Presidential election is really about tribal alliance. The coalition that craft the largest tribal alliance wins. And you craft it by aligning or buying tribal kings who rule their tribe - Joho is small time tribal king of coast .

Obviously when it comes to MP election in Homabay where 98% of people are Luo - then tribe is not a factor - what is a factor will be clannism or regionalism - it could be war btw mawego and kendu bay - and of course local issues(schools, electricity) do matter a lot at that level but people are likely to vote their village mate before voting someone 10kms from their residence.

There is nothing complicated here.

Ahaaa!  Now we are talking!!. I thought Kenyans do not care about anything but tribe. Now you are telling me that these tribal kingpins have to deliver something to get tribal votes. What comes first then, the delivery or the tribe?  Could it be that Luhyia's will be voting for Raila because they believe he would deliver to them more than Ouru or is it because Mdvd and Weta told them how to vote. According to your admission, it is evident that tribe is not a leading indicator but "delivery" seems to be.

If only tribe matters then  Why is  Joho and Iso Ruto the darling of NASA crowd and not Kidero or Kalonzo? Why is Duale the darling of Jubilee crowd. Could it be Possibly because of the way they articulate the issues/ideology that resonate with the NASA or  Jubilee crowd? Maybe the NASA and  Jubilee crowds actually have issues they care about and are not tribal voting machines as the elites perceive them to be. 

[Kichwa]

Yes I believe Raila has the best issues but that is not the thrust of this debate and I am going to ignore the unnecessary ad hominems.

Back to the issue.  Saying that the coalition that puts together the largest  tribal alliance will  win is like saying that the team that scores the most goals will win-of course. The issue here is how do you score the goals or how do you win the votes.

In 2002 Moi did not have an issue but he put together what he perceived to be a winning tribal coalition.  Raila countered with what he believed to be a winning issue "Moi/KANU must Go" and the tribal coalition just fell in place.

Luos and other Kenyans voted for Kibaki in 2002 not because the tribal kingpins told them to but because they wanted to get rid of Moi/Kanu and the so called tribal kingpins read the mood of the public and trooped in.

Right now, Mdvd and Wetangula are not telling the Luhyia folks how to vote, but instead they read the mood of the Luyhia people and are following them.  Contrast that  to Ababu who is sinking because he misread the mood of the Mulembe nation.

The so called tribal kingpins can have a very rough time if their goals are not aligned to the peoples wishes. This is why Kiraitu is going through a rough time and this is what WSR must be prepared for in 2022 if he is around to ran.  He may assemble what he believes to be the best tribal kingpins but if he is not a saleable, the tribal kingpins will not help him. They will read the mood and ran.  That is what  happened to Jubilee in Kisii.  They assembled what they believed to be tribal Kingpins but could not sale Ouruto there.

Joho or Duale may come from a small tribes but if they are saleable to the big tribes and if they have money, they will get the tribal kingpins.

My question to you, who is on the driver seat, the people or the tribal kingpins.

You desperate to force "issues" again because you've always believed Raila has the best "issues" - when in fact he he has nothing.

The are so many criterias that voters apply depending on the seat. Presidential election is really about tribal alliance. The coalition that craft the largest tribal alliance wins. And you craft it by aligning or buying tribal kings who rule their tribe - Joho is small time tribal king of coast .

Obviously when it comes to MP election in Homabay where 98% of people are Luo - then tribe is not a factor - what is a factor will be clannism or regionalism - it could be war btw mawego and kendu bay - and of course local issues(schools, electricity) do matter a lot at that level but people are likely to vote their village mate before voting someone 10kms from their residence.

There is nothing complicated here.

Ahaaa!  Now we are talking!!. I thought Kenyans do not care about anything but tribe. Now you are telling me that these tribal kingpins have to deliver something to get tribal votes. What comes first then, the delivery or the tribe?  Could it be that Luhyia's will be voting for Raila because they believe he would deliver to them more than Ouru or is it because Mdvd and Weta told them how to vote. According to your admission, it is evident that tribe is not a leading indicator but "delivery" seems to be.

If only tribe matters then  Why is  Joho and Iso Ruto the darling of NASA crowd and not Kidero or Kalonzo? Why is Duale the darling of Jubilee crowd. Could it be Possibly because of the way they articulate the issues/ideology that resonate with the NASA or  Jubilee crowd? Maybe the NASA and  Jubilee crowds actually have issues they care about and are not tribal voting machines as the elites perceive them to be. 

[RV Pundit]

Here we go with your never ending debate. You've been proven wrong severally but you continue to lie. Kibaki won because the only way to beat Uhuru was to front another kikuyu to split the GEMA vote. The rest of your theories I no longer have the time or energy to go on and on.

Yes I believe Raila has the best issues but that is not the thrust of this debate and I am going to ignore the unnecessary ad hominems.

Back to the issue.  Saying that the coalition that puts together the largest  tribal alliance will  win is like saying that the team that scores the most goals will win-of course. The issue here is how do you score the goals or how do you win the votes.

In 2002 Moi did not have an issue but he put together what he perceived to be a winning tribal coalition.  Raila countered with what he believed to be a winning issue "Moi/KANU must Go" and the tribal coalition just fell in place.

Luos and other Kenyans voted for Kibaki in 2002 not because the tribal kingpins told them to but because they wanted to get rid of Moi/Kanu and the so called tribal kingpins read the mood of the public and trooped in.

Right now, Mdvd and Wetangula are not telling the Luhyia folks how to vote, but instead they read the mood of the Luyhia people and are following them.  Contrast that  to Ababu who is sinking because he misread the mood of the Mulembe nation.

The so called tribal kingpins can have a very rough time if their goals are not aligned to the peoples wishes. This is why Kiraitu is going through a rough time and this is what WSR must be prepared for in 2022 if he is around to ran.  He may assemble what he believes to be the best tribal kingpins but if he is not a saleable, the tribal kingpins will not help him. They will read the mood and ran.  That is what  happened to Jubilee in Kisii.  They assembled what they believed to be tribal Kingpins but could not sale Ouruto there.

Joho or Duale may come from a small tribes but if they are saleable to the big tribes and if they have money, they will get the tribal kingpins.

My question to you, who is on the driver seat, the people or the tribal kingpins.

You desperate to force "issues" again because you've always believed Raila has the best "issues" - when in fact he he has nothing.

The are so many criterias that voters apply depending on the seat. Presidential election is really about tribal alliance. The coalition that craft the largest tribal alliance wins. And you craft it by aligning or buying tribal kings who rule their tribe - Joho is small time tribal king of coast .

Obviously when it comes to MP election in Homabay where 98% of people are Luo - then tribe is not a factor - what is a factor will be clannism or regionalism - it could be war btw mawego and kendu bay - and of course local issues(schools, electricity) do matter a lot at that level but people are likely to vote their village mate before voting someone 10kms from their residence.

There is nothing complicated here.

Ahaaa!  Now we are talking!!. I thought Kenyans do not care about anything but tribe. Now you are telling me that these tribal kingpins have to deliver something to get tribal votes. What comes first then, the delivery or the tribe?  Could it be that Luhyia's will be voting for Raila because they believe he would deliver to them more than Ouru or is it because Mdvd and Weta told them how to vote. According to your admission, it is evident that tribe is not a leading indicator but "delivery" seems to be.

If only tribe matters then  Why is  Joho and Iso Ruto the darling of NASA crowd and not Kidero or Kalonzo? Why is Duale the darling of Jubilee crowd. Could it be Possibly because of the way they articulate the issues/ideology that resonate with the NASA or  Jubilee crowd? Maybe the NASA and  Jubilee crowds actually have issues they care about and are not tribal voting machines as the elites perceive them to be. 

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Kichwa,

I notice you will continue wriggle and twist to fit a simple explanation into your narrative.  The fact is that Kenyans care about issues.   They don't enjoy starving or struggling to survive.  I am not aware of anyone disputing that fact. 

The point about tribe is simply that it overwhelms the other issues.  If I am Gitau, I might love some ideas that Raila suggests.  I might even prefer his platform.  But on August 8th, I am voting for my man.  That outcome might be different if Raila were Kikuyu with a strong chance of making it.

By your own and other explanations on this thread, tribe is irrelevant when it cannot be a consideration such as when considering two candidates from the same tribe.  Even then it's still in play as in 2002. 

Even at MP level, you first need to know the tribe of the candidate, and then the issues.  Most people at this level are simply non-starters because they are not part of the local tribe.  In cosmopolitan areas like Nairobi, the MPs tend to win based on where there are large concentrations of their tribe.  Luos in Kibra, Luhyas in Kangemi etc.

I noticed you keep bringing up other examples of why it's no different than the US.  But it is.  If Ben Carson or even John Lewis ran on a Republican ticket, he has no chance of bringing African Americans with him.  If it were like Kenya, they would decamp en masse and vote Republican for that election because of his tribe.

[Kichwa]

In 2002 Raila had an issue to split GEMA- namely "KANU/MOI Fatigue".  Kibaki was just an icing on the cake. Kibaki was not even that popular among the kikuyu but Moi/Kanu fatigue was a winning issue. Ignore ISSUE and focus on tribe at your own peril.   

Here we go with your never ending debate. You've been proven wrong severally but you continue to lie. Kibaki won because the only way to beat Uhuru was to front another kikuyu to split the GEMA vote. The rest of your theories I no longer have the time or energy to go on and on.

Yes I believe Raila has the best issues but that is not the thrust of this debate and I am going to ignore the unnecessary ad hominems.

Back to the issue.  Saying that the coalition that puts together the largest  tribal alliance will  win is like saying that the team that scores the most goals will win-of course. The issue here is how do you score the goals or how do you win the votes.

In 2002 Moi did not have an issue but he put together what he perceived to be a winning tribal coalition.  Raila countered with what he believed to be a winning issue "Moi/KANU must Go" and the tribal coalition just fell in place.

Luos and other Kenyans voted for Kibaki in 2002 not because the tribal kingpins told them to but because they wanted to get rid of Moi/Kanu and the so called tribal kingpins read the mood of the public and trooped in.

Right now, Mdvd and Wetangula are not telling the Luhyia folks how to vote, but instead they read the mood of the Luyhia people and are following them.  Contrast that  to Ababu who is sinking because he misread the mood of the Mulembe nation.

The so called tribal kingpins can have a very rough time if their goals are not aligned to the peoples wishes. This is why Kiraitu is going through a rough time and this is what WSR must be prepared for in 2022 if he is around to ran.  He may assemble what he believes to be the best tribal kingpins but if he is not a saleable, the tribal kingpins will not help him. They will read the mood and ran.  That is what  happened to Jubilee in Kisii.  They assembled what they believed to be tribal Kingpins but could not sale Ouruto there.

Joho or Duale may come from a small tribes but if they are saleable to the big tribes and if they have money, they will get the tribal kingpins.

My question to you, who is on the driver seat, the people or the tribal kingpins.

You desperate to force "issues" again because you've always believed Raila has the best "issues" - when in fact he he has nothing.

The are so many criterias that voters apply depending on the seat. Presidential election is really about tribal alliance. The coalition that craft the largest tribal alliance wins. And you craft it by aligning or buying tribal kings who rule their tribe - Joho is small time tribal king of coast .

Obviously when it comes to MP election in Homabay where 98% of people are Luo - then tribe is not a factor - what is a factor will be clannism or regionalism - it could be war btw mawego and kendu bay - and of course local issues(schools, electricity) do matter a lot at that level but people are likely to vote their village mate before voting someone 10kms from their residence.

There is nothing complicated here.

Ahaaa!  Now we are talking!!. I thought Kenyans do not care about anything but tribe. Now you are telling me that these tribal kingpins have to deliver something to get tribal votes. What comes first then, the delivery or the tribe?  Could it be that Luhyia's will be voting for Raila because they believe he would deliver to them more than Ouru or is it because Mdvd and Weta told them how to vote. According to your admission, it is evident that tribe is not a leading indicator but "delivery" seems to be.

If only tribe matters then  Why is  Joho and Iso Ruto the darling of NASA crowd and not Kidero or Kalonzo? Why is Duale the darling of Jubilee crowd. Could it be Possibly because of the way they articulate the issues/ideology that resonate with the NASA or  Jubilee crowd? Maybe the NASA and  Jubilee crowds actually have issues they care about and are not tribal voting machines as the elites perceive them to be. 

[RV Pundit]

I come from "scientific" kind of field where theories need to be backed by empirical data. There is a strong correlation that our voting is tribal. But as we know correlation doesn't mean causality. Good luck with that.

In 2002 Raila had an issue to split GEMA- namely "KANU/MOI Fatigue".  Kibaki was just an icing on the cake. Kibaki was not even that popular among the kikuyu but Moi/Kanu fatigue was a winning issue. Ignore ISSUE and focus on tribe at your own peril.   

[Kichwa]

Windy, How do you explain a poor uninsured republican in Texas who votes against Obama care and for tax cuts to the wealthy and yet he does not have healthcare or is not wealthy enough to benefit from the proposed taxes. This Texan will tell you that he believes in the capitalist system and that Obama care is socialism and cutting taxes is consistent with his capitalist beliefs.  I bet you will take this Texan at his words.  Now what if a Kikuyu tells you that he will vote for Ouru because he believes ouru did a good job and deserves a second term, will you dismiss this person as only voting for ouru because of his tribe.  What about a luo who believes that ouru did a horrible job and must go-is he saying this just because he is a luo.  I think we are too quick to use the tribal label as an explanation for everything.  I personally think ouru did a horrible job and I do not think my tribe influenced me but I believe my ideology has something to do with it.

Kichwa,

I notice you will continue wriggle and twist to fit a simple explanation into your narrative.  The fact is that Kenyans care about issues.   They don't enjoy starving or struggling to survive.  I am not aware of anyone disputing that fact. 

The point about tribe is simply that it overwhelms the other issues.  If I am Gitau, I might love some ideas that Raila suggests.  I might even prefer his platform.  But on August 8th, I am voting for my man.  That outcome might be different if Raila were Kikuyu with a strong chance of making it.

By your own and other explanations on this thread, tribe is irrelevant when it cannot be a consideration such as when considering two candidates from the same tribe.  Even then it's still in play as in 2002. 

Even at MP level, you first need to know the tribe of the candidate, and then the issues.  Most people at this level are simply non-starters because they are not part of the local tribe.  In cosmopolitan areas like Nairobi, the MPs tend to win based on where there are large concentrations of their tribe.  Luos in Kibra, Luhyas in Kangemi etc.

I noticed you keep bringing up other examples of why it's no different than the US.  But it is.  If Ben Carson or even John Lewis ran on a Republican ticket, he has no chance of bringing African Americans with him.  If it were like Kenya, they would decamp en masse and vote Republican for that election because of his tribe.

[Kichwa]

I will accept that observation.

My theory is that you need to have an issue then you need the tribal infrastructure for it to grow and spread.

We always cite the successful stories like that of Ouru, Raila, Ruto, but we fail to study them in depth enough to know why they have been successful.  Its much easier to just lazily credit tribe for their successful mobilization of votes across the country. 

There is more lessons to be learned from those who have tried to use the tribe as a vehicle and failed. The reason why they have failed is that they only had tribe to go with and no issue.

Those who want to influence policy by winning elections cannot just go around complaining that Kenyans vote along tribal lines or came up with lazy answers and refuse to study exactly how this phenomenon works.

I come from "scientific" kind of field where theories need to be backed by empirical data. There is a strong correlation that our voting is tribal. But as we know correlation doesn't mean causality. Good luck with that.

In 2002 Raila had an issue to split GEMA- namely "KANU/MOI Fatigue".  Kibaki was just an icing on the cake. Kibaki was not even that popular among the kikuyu but Moi/Kanu fatigue was a winning issue. Ignore ISSUE and focus on tribe at your own peril.   

[RV Pundit]

That make sense.

I will accept that observation.

My theory is that you need to have an issue then you need the tribal infrastructure for it to grow and spread.

We always cite the successful stories like that of Ouru, Raila, Ruto, but we fail to study them in depth enough to know why they have been successful.  Its much easier to just lazily credit tribe for their successful mobilization of votes across the country. 

There is more lessons to be learned from those who have tried to use the tribe as a vehicle and failed. The reason why they have failed is that they only had tribe to go with and no issue.

Those who want to influence policy by winning elections cannot just go around complaining that Kenyans vote along tribal lines or came up with lazy answers and refuse to study exactly how this phenomenon works.