The battle shift to the list of new millionaires - ROS

[RV Pundit]

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[Nefertiti]

Do we need to revise the MOAS to factor this? Since victory per constituency depends on the RO's tribe.

[RV Pundit]

Yeah RO tribe is very important.Kenyans are irredeemably tribal.I can imagine RO receiving a call from key tribal leaders to sway election this way or that. We are looking at chaos. Many elections at lower level have been found compromised and no returning officer has been found guilty. The criminal culpability will fall under Police/DPP. Therefore if someone is assured of criminal indemnity - he can do whatever they want.

Let hope electronic transmission will work. Last time they had 30% success rate. I have heard from testing - it's been working.

Obviously I see a real possibility of presidential election being annulled like it's been happening for others seats where ROs have been overseeing. National Tally Center has basically been making sure everything is kosher. Some ROs will make honest mistakes - that is given in huge undertaking where you're overseeing six elections  - while others will make deliberate mistakes. Ultimately Supreme Court will find fault and if election is close - that may have material impact - and we should be ready for another election in 2 months.

Do we need to revise the MOAS to factor this? Since victory per constituency depends on the RO's tribe.

[Omollo]

Pundit

ROs have been declaring MPs, MCAs. SEnators and Governors elected. You had no issue with them before. If I had opened my mouth to allege that the huge number of MPs URP and TNA obtained was due to bribery you would have called me names and dismissed it.

So please tell us how you benefited from these corrupt ROs so we can protect ourselves from them

I note that as soon as the court ruled that presidential elections are done in 290 constituencies, your claims about ROs resembled what you daily heap on Raila.

[RV Pundit]

They only declare MCA & MP. County RO declare Senator, Women Rep & Governor. PORK is serious serious serious business. This is no light matter. This could easily spark the country into chaos or military rule. I don't want that.I also don't want some stupid RO forcing us to spend another 100B (if you factor everything) on a repeat election - hopefully supreme court can order repeat in those places with issues only but going by MPS seats - the court seem to declare the entire thing null and void.

As far as rigging goes - RO will be discovered if someone appeals (scrutiny & verification will just nab them)  - so maybe you can help us with number of elections that were annuelled and which party they belong to. I don't recall any URP MP losing in petition. I know TNA lost few seats in Nairobi & Gusii.

I'd say most of rigging has been happening in Gusii-nyamira & kisii (as you would expect), Nairobi,Bungoma,Kajiado & machakos - & maybe Makueni & Kiambu - if my memory is right - and that is where we need to watch. they are probably happening there because elections are very competitive  in those counties- and any small mistake by RO - has huge impact.

I recall Ford - Kenya Principal Wetangula lost his election due to malpractise - and Kidero bribed ?

Pundit

ROs have been declaring MPs, MCAs. SEnators and Governors elected. You had no issue with them before. If I had opened my mouth to allege that the huge number of MPs URP and TNA obtained was due to bribery you would have called me names and dismissed it.

So please tell us how you benefited from these corrupt ROs so we can protect ourselves from them

I note that as soon as the court ruled that presidential elections are done in 290 constituencies, your claims about ROs resembled what you daily heap on Raila.

[RV Pundit]

http://idadihalisi.blogspot.co.ke/  -- You can use the MP seat as indicator of number of ROs supreme court will find at fault  - 10 - those could have been cured at national tallying - but now - it's repeat election for entire country.
19 - by-election were held due to petitions.
By-election by representative position
Governor - 1
Senator - 4
MP - 10
Member of county assembly (MCA) - 30

[Kichwa]

Pundit, you really do take liberties with your statements.  Do you know all these 10 cases well enough to categorically tell us that they would have been cured by  Hassan who was taken to court on the only case he  ROed.

http://idadihalisi.blogspot.co.ke/  -- You can use the MP seat as indicator of number of ROs supreme court will find at fault  - 10 - those could have been cured at national tallying - but now - it's repeat election for entire country.
19 - by-election were held due to petitions.
By-election by representative position
Governor - 1
Senator - 4
MP - 10
Member of county assembly (MCA) - 30

[RV Pundit]

Hassan was taken to court but was validated because he had done his homework before announcing final results - demanded for say affidavits or some document - when ROs had come up with cooked figures. Chebukati will be taken to court but with his hands tied to the back. He'll just present ROs - who will proceed to say - they made mathematical tranposition errors - and supreme court - hopefully has away to rectify - otherwise we go back for another election - which seeing NASA having no hope - you guys are probably praying for.

Pundit, you really do take liberties with your statements.  Do you know all these 10 cases well enough to categorically tell us that they would have been cured by  Hassan who was taken to court on the only case he  ROed.

[Omollo]

This is how it is supposed to happen:

1. The RO will announce the results of the constituency Presidential election at the same time as he announces those of the MP and MCAs.
2. He will then send the tallies for Governor, Senator and WR to the County RO but AFTER announcing the same
3. The County Returning Officer (I noticed you are trying to insinuate that he is not a "proper" RO) will tally the results for the above and announce/ declare the winner;

Like Kichwa says without massive coordination the topping up becomes a problem. For example if they had calculated on a turnout of 75% for NASA areas and the turnout is 90% or their own turnout fails and is under 80% there would be need to adjust the figures. Usually there are delays orchestrated by the NIS. The NIS feeds the ROs with the "correct figures" to enter.

In 2007 this was done at KICC in plain view. As ROs returned from the field, they were handed new forms to sign with new figures.

The fallacy of doing that means there would have to be delays in announcing results at mostly Jubilee areas but also some NASA areas where the ROs are on the payroll of the NIS.

I do not see such an attempt ending well. Uhuru would be looking to stage a fresh 2007 and he knows how well that ended.

They only declare MCA & MP. County RO declare Senator, Women Rep & Governor. PORK is serious serious serious business. This is no light matter. This could easily spark the country into chaos or military rule. I don't want that.I also don't want some stupid RO forcing us to spend another 100B (if you factor everything) on a repeat election - hopefully supreme court can order repeat in those places with issues only but going by MPS seats - the court seem to declare the entire thing null and void.

As far as rigging goes - RO will be discovered if someone appeals (scrutiny & verification will just nab them)  - so maybe you can help us with number of elections that were annuelled and which party they belong to. I don't recall any URP MP losing in petition. I know TNA lost few seats in Nairobi & Gusii.

I'd say most of rigging has been happening in Gusii-nyamira & kisii (as you would expect), Nairobi,Bungoma,Kajiado & machakos - & maybe Makueni & Kiambu - if my memory is right - and that is where we need to watch. they are probably happening there because elections are very competitive  in those counties- and any small mistake by RO - has huge impact.

I recall Ford - Kenya Principal Wetangula lost his election due to malpractise - and Kidero bribed ?

Pundit

ROs have been declaring MPs, MCAs. SEnators and Governors elected. You had no issue with them before. If I had opened my mouth to allege that the huge number of MPs URP and TNA obtained was due to bribery you would have called me names and dismissed it.

So please tell us how you benefited from these corrupt ROs so we can protect ourselves from them

I note that as soon as the court ruled that presidential elections are done in 290 constituencies, your claims about ROs resembled what you daily heap on Raila.

[RV Pundit]

You naivety amazes me. If Moi in 1997 knew how much top up he needed to beat Kibaki - why do you think Uhuru won't know by 9pm what top up to do. Moi claimed ballot boxes had arrived late or never in some places...and Kivuitu had to extend voting..likes of Kipkalya Kones were flying in my place urging people to go back and vote again on day 2 - until all papers ECK had brought were finished.

 You see there will be PROVISIONAL electronic tranmission from IEBC and from NASA/Jubilee Tallying Center - so before the ballots & results get to RO - they would have known what need to be top up - and where - and all it will take is for phone call to RO to add or substract votes as needed. This will be true for both parties.

Obviously top up will be safe in each one strongholds...and for Jubilee who enjoy incumbency - remote places like Mandera will be perfect to inflate.

I think right now it's more a race of who can influence ROs to intelligently alter figures - and you can bet upon petition -these will be overtuned - leading to new election. That is the only scenario I am seeing here.

Unless of course one buys ROs and SCOK...then he can become PORK so easily.

This is how it is supposed to happen:

1. The RO will announce the results of the constituency Presidential election at the same time as he announces those of the MP and MCAs.
2. He will then send the tallies for Governor, Senator and WR to the County RO but AFTER announcing the same
3. The County Returning Officer (I noticed you are trying to insinuate that he is not a "proper" RO) will tally the results for the above and announce/ declare the winner;

Like Kichwa says without massive coordination the topping up becomes a problem. For example if they had calculated on a turnout of 75% for NASA areas and the turnout is 90% or their own turnout fails and is under 80% there would be need to adjust the figures. Usually there are delays orchestrated by the NIS. The NIS feeds the ROs with the "correct figures" to enter.

In 2007 this was done at KICC in plain view. As ROs returned from the field, they were handed new forms to sign with new figures.

The fallacy of doing that means there would have to be delays in announcing results at mostly Jubilee areas but also some NASA areas where the ROs are on the payroll of the NIS.

I do not see such an attempt ending well. Uhuru would be looking to stage a fresh 2007 and he knows how well that ended.