I believe that if most ingredients (90%) are put in place a miracle can happen.
Perhaps. But what would constitute the 90%?
What if we borrow trillions of dollars and build universal infrastructure in a few years? Roads, rail, subways, power, water, housing, sewers, etc. Would we be bankrupted by the loans or would swift development follow? I believe the latter.
Entirely possible, but for one awkward: we lack the record (or natural resources to milked) for truly "world-class" loans. And there is another thing: development of "attitude". Elsewhere, someone---I think it was
kichwa---noted that the average Kenyan's attitude towards "government property" has not changed since 1960: "it belongs to whomever, so I may help myself to it". Apart from the financial "eating", people also stole physical parts of the railway infrastructure. That is already happening with the SGR.
When the EAC developed its railways Master Plan, their Japanese consultant had this to say: (a) by the time you have spent all this money on this new SGR, you will have trains that run slower than what we have on
cargo lines that are much older than your lines, and (b) you can get actually better speeds and capacity by refurbishing your present lines and using
better signalling. (Silly man. How can refurbishing and better signalling show real "development" and "success" in the 21st ... I brought this
new thing to the village
vs. I fixed the problem with the
old one.)
Here's part of what I am trying to get at, beyond the "obvious" economic arguments of loan amounts and repayments and dot dot dot: why did the old line fail, and why do we believe that the new line will succeed without seemingly-impossible changes in our society? Once the SGR starts to carry a non-trivial amount of goods, are we sure that the sort of fiddling that happens at "weigh bridges" won't simply be transferred? Are we sure that money allocated for maintenance will go to maintenance, or will it be the usual, "it's still working, so let's just eat this money"? Let's see how all that shiny stuff looks like a year from now.
There is also this idea that the Chinese lending the money for the SGR shows that they are really confident of its success; I'm not so sure about that. First, Kenya is paying serious insurance for that loan. Second, while Kung Fu was flexible on the repayment of the principal and interest, it insisted on the insurance premium being paid upfront. Smart move: if the SGR collapses today, they still get paid. There's a "rap song" that testifies to this sort of thinking:
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Oh a word on the "hard economics" and "really cheap" fares and cargo rates. I have seen Sh. 700 fares with a flag of "promotional rates" ... on the orders of H. E. Uhuru, down from an initial Sh. 900. That has got many people really worked up. Now, as a matter of simple economics, charges on such infrastructure have to be sufficient to (
at least) maintain it. So what are the basis of the current charges? GoK has been very shy on that, but we know at least two things: (a) Kung Fu suggested much higher figures; (a) GoK's Canadian consultants recommended starting off with rates lower than for road and then jacking them up once the SGR had sufficient market-share. So, if I were down there, I would moderate my excitement.
Here's another part what I am trying to get at: borrowing money and throwing it into infrastructure, arming toddlers with laptops, ... these are of limited worth in developing a country such as our. We need to focus on serious fundamentals. Have mobile phone, can do the MPESA stuff, and ride on spanking new SGR ... but no food to eat (without the President leading the begging), constant diarrhoea from lack of clean water .... that's development? Really?