Pundit, Name One Major Name That Has Defected to Jubilee Recently

[Omollo]

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Let's place the cutoff date to the formal declaration of the election.

During that time here are the Jubilee names that have defected to NASA (kindly add your own at will)

1. David Koech -  Former Jubilee Party director and URP Chief Executive Officer (CEO)
2. Elijah Lagat - Chesumei MP
3. Peris Simam (Former MP Eldoret South),
4. Stephen Tarus (Former MP Emgwen),
5. Jesse Maiz (Former MP Eldoret South),
6. John Cheruiyot (Former MP Aldai) and 
7. Judith Cheptoo Koskei - Former Kenya Tourism Board (KTB) Director

[RV Pundit]

Who are this? Kalenjin conducted a generational purge that saw few leaders older than WSR come back. The median age for Kalenjin politician is about 35-40yrs. You can take Moi Daniel, Biwott and any dead wood like Franklin Bett, Henry Kosgey  -and get 2% --but not these jokes who are as always looking to feed off Raila.

I see they all come from Nandi county which elected the youngest senator -28yrs old  (before Kericho took the mantle -27yrs old) and now have confirmed him as incoming governor - Arap Sang is now 33yrs old & beat all like Luhya Isukuti. That is the future. The likes of Murkomen, Aaron and most of incoming mps are 30-40yrs. All of them won with landslide. That is the future of Kalenjin politics.

And you're looking at the past....at politicians who cannot understand why electorate are choosing small boys over them.

The reason is simple. Ruto William has been accepted as de-facto Kalenjin leader...and at 51yrs of age... people have realized you cannot pair him with older folks..who have age-hang-over issues...so right now they are sending him 30-40yrs old kids who can prop him...coz Kalenjin are focussed at 2022 when WSR will take the mantle and will not drop the ball.

Let's place the cutoff date to the formal declaration of the election.

During that time here are the Jubilee names that have defected to NASA (kindly add your own at will)

1. David Koech -  Former Jubilee Party director and URP Chief Executive Officer (CEO)
2. Elijah Lagat - Chesumei MP
3. Peris Simam (Former MP Eldoret South),
4. Stephen Tarus (Former MP Emgwen),
5. Jesse Maiz (Former MP Eldoret South),
6. John Cheruiyot (Former MP Aldai) and 
7. Judith Cheptoo Koskei - Former Kenya Tourism Board (KTB) Director

[Omollo]

Who are this? Kalenjin conducted a generational purge that saw few leaders older than WSR come back. The median age for Kalenjin politician is about 35-40yrs. You can take Moi Daniel, Biwott and any dead wood like Franklin Bett, Henry Kosgey but not these jokes who are as always looking to feed off Raila.

That is Ruto's biggest mistake and I can tell you now that its completed (Napoleon warned against doing it earlier)

But on second thoughts ill wait until post mortem when you will be full of threats and claims after 9th September.

[patel]

Ruto will never run for president....every body knows that. ...2013 he faked some presidential run to box in kamatusa voters same case with 2022 talk. It's all a fake move to confuse kalenjin voters.

[Omollo]

Ruto will never run for president....every body knows that. ...2013 he faked some presidential run to box in kamatusa voters same case with 2022 talk. It's all a fake move to confuse kalenjin voters.

When people are asked at rallies if they think Kikuyus will vote for Ruto in 2022 most actually laugh.

Here we can see the double standards. Pundit counts MPs and rejected politicians in NASA areas and cites it as "shifting grounds". But you won't catch him doing the same with Jubilee areas. Now you can see him dismissing those MPs and community leaders.

In 2013 the tide of defections of current and old politicians was nearly equal both sides except in Kalenjin Land where they trooped to URP. Today the tide is ONE-WAY - NASA. We even have Jubilee candidates and allied candidates crossing to NASA. The one in Kajiado of course Pundit dismissed as inconsequential.

They rely on Nkaissery who was in ODM and of course failed to understand the new constitution thinking he could be appointed minister. ODM reclaimed the seat. In fact history will show that the government did not seize a single seat from the opposition except one place.

We see Uhuru being jeered everywhere and in some places people simply staying away. Ruto is worse off with nearly every country hostile. The chants of NASA in Elgeyo Marakwet must have sobered him a bit.

Unlike Pundit, the duo have realized they are losing and have resorted to rigging plans:

1. They are determined that a ruling which restated a supreme court finding that votes be counted at polling stations and the result by the RO is final must be appealed and set aside;
2. Uhuru Kenyatta is printing ballot papers for a contest he is a participant. Chiloba said the other day that the ballots had already been printed. Chebukati issued a statement denying after NASA through own sources determined that it was true;
3. The NIS has hatched a plan to rig Uhuru back
4. Violence is being planned with Uhuru engaged in doublespeak meant for foreign envoys to hoodwink them that he is a man of peace. We know he did the same in 2008 but the ICC saw through it.

The attempts to recycle the ICC narrative might just work but not the way he thinks. He still has an open case and is inciting and planning new violence in the same country.

[RV Pundit]

You always lie. I don't count defecting Luo politicians because Raila has it under wraps. I don't count defecting Kalenjin because Ruto has it under wraps - 2007, 2010 constituion & 2013 should be enough evidence but we had people thinking Daniel Moi or Henry Kosgey or Isaac Ruto will chip off Kalenjin votes. The same case I didn't count Martha or Peter Keneth when Uhuru has GEMA under wraps. Kalonzo has ukambani but there some significant noise there - Ngilu use to chip off 15% of Kitui - but we don't know how this will go - but still I think Kalonzo will take 90%.

Where I watch defecting politician are places without strong leaders who sway entire communities. That is hard part. This are places were politician x or y has sway in some small region or clan or district. MaDVD we know can only really sway Maragolis.Wetangula can only sway half-Bukusus. The rest of Luhyas sub-tribe will sway their own leaders. Bunyore will listen say to Oparanya. Itosho or idakho maybe to Khawale. Otuoma maybe will influence his Samia people. Then in places like Somalis - or Maasai - or Gusii - it's down to clans.

When people are asked at rallies if they think Kikuyus will vote for Ruto in 2022 most actually laugh.

Here we can see the double standards. Pundit counts MPs and rejected politicians in NASA areas and cites it as "shifting grounds". But you won't catch him doing the same with Jubilee areas. Now you can see him dismissing those MPs and community leaders.

In 2013 the tide of defections of current and old politicians was nearly equal both sides except in Kalenjin Land where they trooped to URP. Today the tide is ONE-WAY - NASA. We even have Jubilee candidates and allied candidates crossing to NASA. The one in Kajiado of course Pundit dismissed as inconsequential.

They rely on Nkaissery who was in ODM and of course failed to understand the new constitution thinking he could be appointed minister. ODM reclaimed the seat. In fact history will show that the government did not seize a single seat from the opposition except one place.

We see Uhuru being jeered everywhere and in some places people simply staying away. Ruto is worse off with nearly every country hostile. The chants of NASA in Elgeyo Marakwet must have sobered him a bit.

Unlike Pundit, the duo have realized they are losing and have resorted to rigging plans:

1. They are determined that a ruling which restated a supreme court finding that votes be counted at polling stations and the result by the RO is final must be appealed and set aside;
2. Uhuru Kenyatta is printing ballot papers for a contest he is a participant. Chiloba said the other day that the ballots had already been printed. Chebukati issued a statement denying after NASA through own sources determined that it was true;
3. The NIS has hatched a plan to rig Uhuru back
4. Violence is being planned with Uhuru engaged in doublespeak meant for foreign envoys to hoodwink them that he is a man of peace. We know he did the same in 2008 but the ICC saw through it.

The attempts to recycle the ICC narrative might just work but not the way he thinks. He still has an open case and is inciting and planning new violence in the same country.

[Omollo]

You pick NASA areas where Raila scored over 80% and list them as places where you proceed to award Uhuru 30 - 50% of the vote. You justification is the defected Tumbocrats. For example Kilifi.

Like all Jubilee people you are promoting the "Kalonzo will defect" thing to this day - even when it is clear that is a train that left the station and has arrived at the final destination! For your part you keep harping at Jubilee votes in Kitui. Today you came up with the most laughable of explanations: That Ngilu crossed to NASA but left her supporter for Jubilee. Pundit ALL of Ngilu's supporters left Jubilee the day she was arrested and charged then fired. It is her supporters who urged her to join Kalonzo to defeat Uhuru. She held a series of meetings in Kitui and Machakos and visited churches before making up her mind.

But again your reason for the 15% vote in Kitui is based on what? Defecting MPs and a loser like Nyenze. How many votes did Uhuru score there for all the support Ngilu gave him? = 40,752 to Raila's 219,588. Logic indicates that he will get fewer votes now that Ngilu is no longer supporting him or let's say Ngilu is now actively fighting him in Kitui.

Please check Mudavadi's votes in Bungoma then make your statements. I have posted that here so many times I have tired of posting it.

Correction: It is NOT maybe to Khalwale. Ask Uhuru why he threatened the good doctor and then understand what kind of hold he has over the Luhya from Idakho, Isukha, Tsotso, Kabras and Wanga. Frankly Western is 100% locked to NASA.

watch Endebess - Trans Nzoia where you say you have votes:

LIVE IN ENDEBESShttps://t.co/SMJNCeGklb

— Raila Odinga (@RailaOdinga) June 22, 2017

You always lie. I don't count defecting Luo politicians because Raila has it under wraps. I don't count defecting Kalenjin because Ruto has it under wraps - 2007, 2010 constituion & 2013 should be enough evidence but we had people thinking Daniel Moi or Henry Kosgey or Isaac Ruto will chip off Kalenjin votes. The same case I didn't count Martha or Peter Keneth when Uhuru has GEMA under wraps. Kalonzo has ukambani but there some significant noise there - Ngilu use to chip off 15% of Kitui - but we don't know how this will go - but still I think Kalonzo will take 90%.

Where I watch defecting politician are places without strong leaders who sway entire communities. That is hard part. This are places were politician x or y has sway in some small region or clan or district. MaDVD we know can only really sway Maragolis.Wetangula can only sway half-Bukusus. The rest of Luhyas sub-tribe will sway their own leaders. Bunyore will listen say to Oparanya. Itosho or idakho maybe to Khawale. Otuoma maybe will influence his Samia people. Then in places like Somalis - or Maasai - or Gusii - it's down to clans.

[Kichwa]

Raila and Ruto are not in the same league and therefore you cannot treat them equally even for MOAS purposes.

Who are this? Kalenjin conducted a generational purge that saw few leaders older than WSR come back. The median age for Kalenjin politician is about 35-40yrs. You can take Moi Daniel, Biwott and any dead wood like Franklin Bett, Henry Kosgey  -and get 2% --but not these jokes who are as always looking to feed off Raila.

I see they all come from Nandi county which elected the youngest senator -28yrs old  (before Kericho took the mantle -27yrs old) and now have confirmed him as incoming governor - Arap Sang is now 33yrs old & beat all like Luhya Isukuti. That is the future. The likes of Murkomen, Aaron and most of incoming mps are 30-40yrs. All of them won with landslide. That is the future of Kalenjin politics.

And you're looking at the past....at politicians who cannot understand why electorate are choosing small boys over them.

The reason is simple. Ruto William has been accepted as de-facto Kalenjin leader...and at 51yrs of age... people have realized you cannot pair him with older folks..who have age-hang-over issues...so right now they are sending him 30-40yrs old kids who can prop him...coz Kalenjin are focussed at 2022 when WSR will take the mantle and will not drop the ball.

Let's place the cutoff date to the formal declaration of the election.

During that time here are the Jubilee names that have defected to NASA (kindly add your own at will)

1. David Koech -  Former Jubilee Party director and URP Chief Executive Officer (CEO)
2. Elijah Lagat - Chesumei MP
3. Peris Simam (Former MP Eldoret South),
4. Stephen Tarus (Former MP Emgwen),
5. Jesse Maiz (Former MP Eldoret South),
6. John Cheruiyot (Former MP Aldai) and 
7. Judith Cheptoo Koskei - Former Kenya Tourism Board (KTB) Director

[RV Pundit]

You have a problem with selective misreading. I don't just award votes. For example -TURKANA- if you check my MOAS of 2013- I clearly thought Rail's CORD would take 2/3 with Uhuru taking 1/3- and the reason was simple - Raila had Munyes and governor - while Senate speaker was on that corner. Now I am tempted to flip...but will wait for few more indicators (opinion polls etc).

As regard Ukambani - I am just saying Kalonzo has always had Ukambani at 85-90% - not 99% like Raila or Uhuru has Luo or GEMA - Kibaki took some votes from him in 2007, Ngilu took some to Uhuru in 2013 and now I am seeing more than half MPs taking some votes from Kalonzo to Ukambani. I am seeing ChapChap that attracted 900 candidates - mostly from Ukambani - and Wiper key financier - Muthama still sulking while Peter Muthoka is working with Uhuru. MOAS cannot ignore all that. I am sorry.

As regard western - you're talking 17 sub-tribes. MaDVD has maragolis. If he had votes outside Maragoli - we could have seen it in Busia. The votes he got from Bungoma & Tranzoia - belonged to NFK - which won the governor (Lusaka) and some Mps seats. MaDVD has zero Bukusu votes. He has Tachoni votes from Sambu . Wetangula has about 2/3 of Bukusu now - the other 1/3 listen to Ken Lusaka/Kombo/etc. Those I am going to give Jubilee. I have seen opinion polls data showing NASA is doing badly in western...Raila has 60%...both Synovate & Infotrak....so it could be worse.

As for the other 17 Luhya sub-tribes....Raila has most of them...I don't think directly..but through key leaders of those small tribes..Oparanya.We will find out how good Washiali/Were/Rashid will do on Mumias Wangas..they are seasoned politicians who are no push-over..and Jubilee will definitely get something there.

Tranzoia ethnic maths is well known -Luhya 52%,Kalenjin 30%,Kikuyu & others 20% - Uhuru got 38% - Raila 47% and MaDVD -12% - I am seeing 50-50 split thanks to Wamalwa Eugene donating 10% to Uhuru.

You can disagree but please try facts.

You pick NASA areas where Raila scored over 80% and list them as places where you proceed to award Uhuru 30 - 50% of the vote. You justification is the defected Tumbocrats. For example Kilifi.

Like all Jubilee people you are promoting the "Kalonzo will defect" thing to this day - even when it is clear that is a train that left the station and has arrived at the final destination! For your part you keep harping at Jubilee votes in Kitui. Today you came up with the most laughable of explanations: That Ngilu crossed to NASA but left her supporter for Jubilee. Pundit ALL of Ngilu's supporters left Jubilee the day she was arrested and charged then fired. It is her supporters who urged her to join Kalonzo to defeat Uhuru. She held a series of meetings in Kitui and Machakos and visited churches before making up her mind.

But again your reason for the 15% vote in Kitui is based on what? Defecting MPs and a loser like Nyenze. How many votes did Uhuru score there for all the support Ngilu gave him? = 40,752 to Raila's 219,588. Logic indicates that he will get fewer votes now that Ngilu is no longer supporting him or let's say Ngilu is now actively fighting him in Kitui.

Please check Mudavadi's votes in Bungoma then make your statements. I have posted that here so many times I have tired of posting it.

Correction: It is NOT maybe to Khalwale. Ask Uhuru why he threatened the good doctor and then understand what kind of hold he has over the Luhya from Idakho, Isukha, Tsotso, Kabras and Wanga. Frankly Western is 100% locked to NASA.

watch Endebess - Trans Nzoia where you say you have votes:

LIVE IN ENDEBESShttps://t.co/SMJNCeGklb

— Raila Odinga (@RailaOdinga) June 22, 2017

You always lie. I don't count defecting Luo politicians because Raila has it under wraps. I don't count defecting Kalenjin because Ruto has it under wraps - 2007, 2010 constituion & 2013 should be enough evidence but we had people thinking Daniel Moi or Henry Kosgey or Isaac Ruto will chip off Kalenjin votes. The same case I didn't count Martha or Peter Keneth when Uhuru has GEMA under wraps. Kalonzo has ukambani but there some significant noise there - Ngilu use to chip off 15% of Kitui - but we don't know how this will go - but still I think Kalonzo will take 90%.

Where I watch defecting politician are places without strong leaders who sway entire communities. That is hard part. This are places were politician x or y has sway in some small region or clan or district. MaDVD we know can only really sway Maragolis.Wetangula can only sway half-Bukusus. The rest of Luhyas sub-tribe will sway their own leaders. Bunyore will listen say to Oparanya. Itosho or idakho maybe to Khawale. Otuoma maybe will influence his Samia people. Then in places like Somalis - or Maasai - or Gusii - it's down to clans.