My dear friend Omollo don't burst a vein - just wait for

[RV Pundit]

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Final MOAS (too be out soon). I think you sat through last election and completely missed my explanation why Raila win was 1) impossible and 2) why Uhuru just had to win by 50%.I don't think anything has changed to warrant any different outcome.

I have attached a comparison of one of the 2013 MOAS (I'll get the final one for better comparison) and what IEBC finally declared. As you can see it was nearly bull-eyes except for turn out - which greatly favored Raila - who'm FINAL MOAS had given 40% against Uhuru 53%.

This year MOAS will even be more accurate....for
1) Lesson learnt from 2013.
2) I now have full tribal maths of counties.
3) Western is pretty easy - no AMANI - just NASA.
4) Turn out  - turn out - that is elephant delaying FINAL MOAS.

[Kichwa]

Really?  Nothing has changed?

Final MOAS (too be out soon). I think you sat through last election and completely missed my explanation why Raila win was 1) impossible and 2) why Uhuru just had to win by 50%.I don't think anything has changed to warrant any different outcome.

I have attached a comparison of one of the 2013 MOAS (I'll get the final one for better comparison) and what IEBC finally declared. As you can see it was nearly bull-eyes except for turn out - which greatly favored Raila - who'm FINAL MOAS had given 40% against Uhuru 53%.

This year MOAS will even be more accurate....for
1) Lesson learnt from 2013.
2) I now have full tribal maths of counties.
3) Western is pretty easy - no AMANI - just NASA.
4) Turn out  - turn out - that is elephant delaying FINAL MOAS.

[RV Pundit]

I am glad you no longer argue against tribal maths.That was long debate you know - sorry but issue-based politics is maybe 50-100yrs away.The premise of MOAS is short and clear. Our politics is mainly ethnic driven. That has not changed now. The tribal arithmetic for this election still mirrors 2013. You have GEMA+Kalenjin on Uhuru corner and LUO+Luhya+Kamba firmly on Raila corner.Those are places either will score 90%. Then you have other tribes...Gusii & Mijikenda - Raila has the edge...Somalis & related -Uhuru has the edge. And then you've got others that are basically 50-50 battle.

I don't see any significant change in tribal equation.

What will don't know as far as I am concerned is just turn out.

Really?  Nothing has changed?

[Globalcitizen12]

You are reslly obsessed with this tribal analysis. What I know is turnout in central will be at 78 ..take that and bake it in

[patel]

Baghdad Bob has to earn his keep. Can't wait for 8/8 so we can settle this one once and for all. Jubilee thieving duo will be in for a surprise. Hiyo tuu

You are reslly obsessed with this tribal analysis. What I know is turnout in central will be at 78 ..take that and bake it in

[RV Pundit]

You just don't throw numbers around. What the premise?

You are reslly obsessed with this tribal analysis. What I know is turnout in central will be at 78 ..take that and bake it in

[Kichwa]

I understood your argument but you never understood my argument. All Human beings relate at two levels, on humanity levels and on ideology/politics/issues/, etc. (I use them interchangeably). Tribal voting is informed by an ideology-the ideology that "my tribesmate in power is better than another tribe".  You can also make people vote against their tribesmate if you can convince them that voting for their tribesmate is not in their interest.  Kalenjins voted for Raila in 2007, not because of Raila's tribe but because of the ideology/ issues of that time. In 2013 Raila's tribe or Ruto's tribe did not change but the issues changed. Your MOAS would be way off if you did it before the fall-out between Ruto and Raila. This means that its not tribe alone that informs MOAS.   In 2002 luos voted for Kibaki but they did not in 2007-can MOAS explain the change?.  The tribes did not change but the issues changed.

This is why I do not believe in the conventional wisdom that Africans do not vote on issues but purely on tribe. Its a lazy political analysis because it does not inquire beyond tribe.    Regardless of who wins, you will see a different percentages in tribal composition in 2017 and 2013 on the tribal voting.   These changes can only be attributed to issues/ideologies/politics, etc. 

I can understand and even respect your argument that nothing has changed significantly enough to change the outcome of this elections but I will never accept the argument that Kenyans only vote along tribal lines regardless of the issues.  If I were to tell you now that in 2022, a Kalenjin and Luhyia will be the two major contenders, you will not be able to produce a MOAS based on that information alone.  You will probably need the names of those people and see if you can put together an ideology/issue before you can make an educated guess.

I am glad you no longer argue against tribal maths.That was long debate you know - sorry but issue-based politics is maybe 50-100yrs away.The premise of MOAS is short and clear. Our politics is mainly ethnic driven. That has not changed now. The tribal arithmetic for this election still mirrors 2013. You have GEMA+Kalenjin on Uhuru corner and LUO+Luhya+Kamba firmly on Raila corner.Those are places either will score 90%. Then you have other tribes...Gusii & Mijikenda - Raila has the edge...Somalis & related -Uhuru has the edge. And then you've got others that are basically 50-50 battle.

I don't see any significant change in tribal equation.

What will don't know as far as I am concerned is just turn out.

Really?  Nothing has changed?

[Globalcitizen12]

My political instinct. Very acute. I knew trump was winning And I called Obama president before he won senator seat..my pulse on Central is good ..

[Kichwa]

I think we can all predict that ouru will win central. The jury is still out on whether he will win the presidency. How do you know your instincts are not influenced by your wishful thinking, MOAS and other factors you have seen or read about recently.  The notion that because somehow your instinct was right with Obama and Trump then somehow its infallible is warped reasoning.

My political instinct. Very acute. I knew trump was winning And I called Obama president before he won senator seat..my pulse on Central is good ..

[Nefertiti]

Global's arrogance seriously rivals Pundit's... he thinks typos also make him clever

[Globalcitizen12]

I think we can all predict that ouru will win central. The jury is still out on whether he will win the presidency. How do you know your instincts are not influenced by your wishful thinking, MOAS and other factors you have seen or read about recently.  The notion that because somehow your instinct was right with Obama and Trump then somehow its infallible is warped reasoning.

My political instinct. Very acute. I knew trump was winning And I called Obama president before he won senator seat..my pulse on Central is good ..

my instinct is good I can even predict when you gonna call me Kumbaff.

[Nefertiti]

Global could you publish your alternative facts so we can line you alongside the mock party on 9th, when it will be clear what a joke you are 

Unlike the economy, food issues, etc on this one there is marking scheme... Remember it's a sin to kill a mockingbird.

[Globalcitizen12]

I polled 12 locations

[Omollo]

Pundit

Add one column showing % gain or loss after each candidate. For example Uhuru scoring 13% from 0.5 represents what % increase. It will give us an idea of just how much the ground has shaken.

Please have respect for people other than Kalenjin and Kikuyu. If Meru's in your view will not change their vote and consider Raila, what makes you think the Luhya will change in those large numbers?

Pundit the general move is towards NASA. All roads are leading from Jubilee to NASA. Your sponsored candidate Jirongo - who had a free senate seat vacated by Khalwale - has not made any traction in the presidential race. Jubilee ran out of cash and the promised billions just did not materialize. You can't run a campaign with thieves. I need not tell you what a broke campaign means Bro.

[Nefertiti]

I think he got it, although he would arrogantly dismiss your explanation as "insha". MOAS is not tribal math, it has parameters including the items you put forth like local influencers, local issues, etc. So that unga can make or break and must be addressed. It just happens that the tribe parameter has 90% weight in present Kenya. If an enigma like Sonko has to court Gema to ease his way to power. In 2017-2022 Gema especially Meru, due to the Uhuru succession, will be the most pampered.

I understood your argument but you never understood my argument. All Human beings relate at two levels, on humanity levels and on ideology/politics/issues/, etc. (I use them interchangeably). Tribal voting is informed by an ideology-the ideology that "my tribesmate in power is better than another tribe".  You can also make people vote against their tribesmate if you can convince them that voting for their tribesmate is not in their interest.  Kalenjins voted for Raila in 2007, not because of Raila's tribe but because of the ideology/ issues of that time. In 2013 Raila's tribe or Ruto's tribe did not change but the issues changed. Your MOAS would be way off if you did it before the fall-out between Ruto and Raila. This means that its not tribe alone that informs MOAS.   In 2002 luos voted for Kibaki but they did not in 2007-can MOAS explain the change?.  The tribes did not change but the issues changed.

This is why I do not believe in the conventional wisdom that Africans do not vote on issues but purely on tribe. Its a lazy political analysis because it does not inquire beyond tribe.    Regardless of who wins, you will see a different percentages in tribal composition in 2017 and 2013 on the tribal voting.   These changes can only be attributed to issues/ideologies/politics, etc. 

I can understand and even respect your argument that nothing has changed significantly enough to change the outcome of this elections but I will never accept the argument that Kenyans only vote along tribal lines regardless of the issues.  If I were to tell you now that in 2022, a Kalenjin and Luhyia will be the two major contenders, you will not be able to produce a MOAS based on that information alone.  You will probably need the names of those people and see if you can put together an ideology/issue before you can make an educated guess.

[RV Pundit]

Precisely. You have a way with words.

I think he got it, although he would arrogantly dismiss your explanation as "insha". MOAS is not tribal math, it has parameters including the items you put forth like local influencers, local issues, etc. So that unga can make or break and must be addressed. It just happens that the tribe parameter has 90% weight in present Kenya. If an enigma like Sonko has to court Gema to ease his way to power. In 2017-2022 Gema especially Meru, due to the Uhuru succession, will be the most pampered.