I think you need to understand MERU tribal arithmetic to understand why Kiraitu simply cannot lose. Kiraitu is Imenti. They are about 50% of Meru county. Imentis immensely benefited Kibaki regime. Imenti south especially is the most developed const in Eastern if not kenya.Kiraitu & Muthaura made that largely possible. Munya became governor thanks to Kiraitu - rumours was he was dating or married to Kiraitus but in any case he had been kiraitu protege at the law firm.
Kiraitu can choose any seat in Meru and just win.
I just don't see how Munya can overcome this. He comes from smaller Tigania..where also Kilemi Mwiria come from (Kilemi did a lot for education there)...so already he is splitting the vote there. And he hopes he can get Igembe north. In the meantime Kiraitu is taking Igembe south to make it beyond Munya dream.
Kiraitu will win with 60-65%; Munya with 20-30% and Kilemi & Kintoi (from Buuri) with 5-10%.
It won't even be close. It a whitewash. Kiraitu like many senators made miscalculation in 2013 thinking the senate was more prestigious and governor was village mayor. Now Kiraitu wants the big seat. Munya option would have been to maybe switch to senate
.
In Embu it the same scenario.. Wambora is comiing back because Lenny Kivuitu in Maendeleo Chap Chap has to figure out how to beat Embus who are 50% plus of Embu county. It's tribal arithmetic stupid. In Tharaka I don't know the full arithmetic...but I bet Chuka's based Muthoni wa something is going to beat current governor.
Kiraitu made a gamble... thinking Munya would be a walkover... so he dissolved Mbus and "asked" Munya to switch places. What a moron. What choice did poor Munya have except to fight or join Jubilee and be rigged out? Obviously running for PORK is a ruse so Ameru can face quandary over King Kiraitu and supporting their son to give him 2022 momentum. Munya is no threat to Ruto but has to invent a contest to deal with Kiraitu the project. Someone will be left with egg in the face no doubt - you are quite sure it'll be Munya, am not. It'll depend on how many people swallow the "it's our turn" bait.