I start by wondering how it is you give Raila "more votes in Bomet" but here insist that
" But for Kalenjin or Kikuyu to vote Raila - forget it."I have learned that in politics you the most stupid word to use is "never". If Kikuyus could vote for Ruto and they called him the Butcher of Eldoret why would Kalenjins not vote for Raila? Again here we see your logic letting us down badly. Raila was wrongly accused of instigating the ICC cases and when Nyong'o wrote an ill advised letter of zero legal value, Ruto seized on it to blame Raila. Among Kikuyus they needed no priming as they knew "Odinga" was their natural enemy.
Another mistake Raila made was to go in to Mau. Kibaki sent him there knowing he would run into problems with the Kalenjin. He took the bait. At the time I wrote and protested but ran in to hardline Raila supporters who said I was overestimating my punditry and that RV would remain firmly Raila's.
So this is not new. They voted for Raila in 2007 and left him in 2013 when people (just like you now) thought it was not possible. Am saying Raila's share of the Kalenjin vote will increase this time. Ruto has caused just as many IDPs as Raila.
1) Unga is an issue that UhuRuto need to watch careful. That I admit is big issue now everywhere.I have seen queues. But for Kalenjin or Kikuyu to vote Raila - forget it. They know Unga is temporary issue that will go when next harvest come - but Raila is albatross on their neck for what years. Unga is only an issue in battle or swing grounds.
So Kalenjin will go hungry but make sure they queue and vote for Uhuru! That is the stuff I prefer to step aside and let Moon Ki interrogate because frankly I am not up to the job. I lack the competence to comprehend it.
2) Independent issue is everywhere - in Bondo & in Kericho - Jubilee party is dealing with sore losers calling themselves Jubilee Independent Candidates - these are mainly current MPS who were floored and cannot imagine life outside parliament. They are not against Jubilee or NASA.
Pundit,
We have an Independent issue because CORD stupidly went in for restrictive laws that led to it. I have hopes that that law along with many others will be nullified but this cycle is gone.
You on the other hand wanted more. You wanted ONE PARTY. It is a pity you could not reverse the entire multiparty provision in the constitution. In your own words, you wanted to follow the Moi Approach to power! You had sissy parties dissolved. URP went, Ford People followed. Some like PNU refused to die and shouted from the morgue being rescued just before they froze to death.
I think Ruto unleashed something against himself and he just won't see it until either next year (if they win) or 2020-ish if they lose.
3) Joyce is Bomet next governor. She will win by 85%. He won nomination by 57% against more likeable Dr Kones. It over for Isaac Ruto - I don't know who he still has - everyone in his county gov is basically quitting. Isaac would have lost by 30% but joining NASA basically left him with 10-15% of direhand - or maybe I am just generous - it could be usual 2% - Kipsigis voting Raila is not an easy thing now.
Those percentages of yours refer to the Jubilee nominations and by no means affect Isaac. You know we both know about those numbers in nominations. Candidates cook them to frighten opponents.
On this one we just have to let time tell.
In 2013 you had more arsenal in rift valley - than Isaac & Zakayo. This time round you'll get few few votes.
There are other people. Incase you happen to think seriously you may accept that Moi and Raila excel in one thing: Creating politicians. Raila has a factory and so did Moi.