2017 - Rough MOAS : Improving turn out in NASA stronghold won't help.

[Omollo]

Pundit

Let me be candid for once (you guys have less than two months to know you are going so what the heck)

I come from the old school of politics which goes by simple adages. Say for example this: Only real enemies can make peace. Or Friends have no business negotiating peace!

NASA's enemy is NOT Uhuru or Ruto. NASA / Raila has an enemy in the form of the NIS - which goes further to incorporate the State machinery.

The reason Raila has failed several times (even after winning) or if you wish to add Kenneth Matiba, Uhuru Kenyatta (2002) etc, is because they each focused on fighting the shadow while they forgot the real warrior. You can call it Reverse Lwanda Magere Syndrome in Kenyan politics.

Raila should have declared war on those entrenched government institutions that have over the years been fed on an anti-Raila diet. Most of them are easily identifiable by the deep primitive ethnicity within their ranks. The NIS briefly rose from that under Boinnet but Kibaki took it back to what it was before and they could not wait to get rid of Gichangi who tried to maintain the professionalism.

It is now the old killing machine, conducting torture, EJK and black ops. It can never accept Raila willingly. It has to be defeated not won over. The battle for the soul and liberation of Kenya is being fought against the NIS and all the institutions it coopts - safaricom, DCI, NPSC, IEBC, Ministry of Interior, Registration of Birth and Deaths, ID Cards, Passport offices etc

Now on the matter you raise about turnout. It is simple: Until we have a clean register with established numbers of registered voters, there is no way you can extrapolate 2017 from 2013. I too have a template waiting until there is something reliable.

Now while waiting for that, I have tried to explain to you that regardless of the polls, MOAS, Estimates etc, rigging can always turn everything upside down. I have indicated that my own "MOAS" will take into consideration the situation up to where we would be. If by then I am convinced that we have defeated all the rigging schemes and destroyed their ability to reenact them, I will give you my final % of NASA victory.

However if those networks would prove too hard to dismantle, I will concede way ahead of everybody.

The difference between me and you is that you believe there is no rigging. I know there was rigging in 2013 and there are efforts to repeat.

Omollo, you are of course obtuse by choice! CORD or NASA base is wider than Jubilee. As you well known Jubilee core is really Kalenjin+GEMA. Historically - I am talking every election or referendum - there are people who always almost turn up to vote - If I recall I'd place Kalenjin top, Kikuyu next, Luo 3rd(only coz they turn up for Raila - and didn't for Kibaki in 02) and Meru+Embu fourth. Whatever the election - Kalenjin always turned up on average 85-90%. It doesn't matter if national average turn out is 50-60% but 90% of kalenjin show up to vote (or well ballot stuffing happens). Historically our national turnout has been around 60-70%. Historically we know the places that don't turn up...North Eastern for obvious reason, COAST, Western and Gusii. These are regions if you study historical trends - have always turn up at 40-60%!.

Now if you want to win election and you're Jubilee - you don't want Gusii, Luhyas, Coast and all the hostile tribes - cranking up their numbers from the usual 55% to 86%

If Jubilee wanted to rig 2013 - clearly they wouldn't have engineered such huge turn out - they know their core base are ever reliable and turn out -

In short  - if you're not obtuse - thanks to turn out increasing from 70-72% (in election before 2013) to 86% - Raila gained more votes from western, gusii, coast and other areas - my calculation says he got 3% bump.He would have scored 40%.

If NASA want to win - they need to not only maintain that turn out but crank it up a little harder.

Jubilee have a reliable core base...that only Luos in NASA can rival.

It not rigging that gave 2-Kabila a win - it combination of higher registration & higher voter turn out - that suddenly transform GEMA+Kalenjin into 45% behemoth instead of says 37% - as per the population share!

Now reply with the usual NIS nonsense.

[Omollo]

18   Nairobi   40%
19   Kajiado   30%
20   Narok   40%
21   TranNzoia   40%
      
Total (8.7M are possibly GEMA+Kalenjin)
      44%

Turn out will probably pump this to 46%.

And all Mr Uhuru need to get is 4% nationally.

[Omollo]

[RV Pundit]

Crap.Nairobi is NASA leaning indeed - when Raila got 48% and Uhuru 46% last time.

[Omollo]

You can take 50% of Nairobi. Doesn't make a dent on NASA numbers

Crap.Nairobi is NASA leaning indeed - when Raila got 48% and Uhuru 46% last time.

[Kadame5]

You can take 50% of Nairobi. Doesn't make a dent on NASA numbers

Crap.Nairobi is NASA leaning indeed - when Raila got 48% and Uhuru 46% last time.

I'm not as optimistic as you, so those blue-leaning battle-ground votes, 3.27 M, should be halved IMO. So assuming your figures are correct: Jubilee 5.8 + 0.8 + 1. 6 would be 8.2 to 8.4 M, and NASA would be 8.6 + 1.6 M which is about 10.2 M; If you're right NASA has 2 M lead and people need to come out and vote. Me, I don't know, I'm just praying for Jubilee to go home on 08/08 and leaving things to God.

But someone I trust at home did his own numbers using 2013 voting patterns but based on the current register and told me that NASA and Jubilee in-the-bag votes are 7.2 M for Jubilee and 8.1 M for NASA; that true battle ground votes are around 4 M, with NASA leading Jubilee. This is why I thought it'll come down to GOTV, because NASA has a big lead in terms of raw numbers but Jubilee has reliable voter turn-out historically. I did not see his chart, so I'm just going off of the general figures but it is interesting the different projections people make from the current register and 2013 voting patterns. One thing I do know, he did not count Bomet as "battle-ground"...it is not. It's Jubilee. He simply counted on 2013 voting patterns to more or less hold.

We will see soon enough. As a NASA supporter, I obviously want your numbers to be true, hehehe.....

[Omollo]

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Where are you guys getting your data.  The registered voters, constituencies etc?

[RV Pundit]

Omollo...try basic maths classes again...and add jubilee column with help of manual calculator.That is crap.You forgot mandera.Assigned bomet and westpokot to battleground while moving garisa and wajir to cord stronghold.tranzoia is not nasa stronghold...it battleground

[patel]

No matter which way you slice and dice these numbers Jubilee will still come short by 1.5 - 2 million votes. jubilee they are done I hope they go home quietly without collapsing the shillings
the same way youth for Kanu did in 1992.  Dollars bank account looks attractive

[Kadame5]

I went through the numbers: it's true, the additions on Jubilee column should be slightly over 7M, roughly 7 M flat, not 5.7.

If I can attempt/suggest my own rudimentary MOAS formula, I'd say first of all that W.Pokot, Bomet and Mandera (around 670 K or 0.67M) are clear Jubilee based on 2013 patterns; Mandera had like 93 % Uhuru votes. So I would count that as Jubilee, bringing it to around 7.7 M. If we throw in Isiolo and Samburu, it'll be just slightly under 8 M.

For NASA, Western and Nyanza, Coast and Ukambani together are also slightly under 8 M.

That leaves battle ground as Nai, Kajiado, Narok, T. Nzoia, Turkana (debatable but we'll leave it here for now), Garissa, Wajir, Maarsabit, Lamu, which is roughly 3.8 M and if 2013 patterns hold, NASA has a clear edge i this category, it's not exactly 50/50.

NASA has more raw numbers but the gap is not as big as initially thought. People need to come out and vote like they did for registration. Hiyo tu. Turn out will make a very big difference in this election, however you dice it.

[RV Pundit]

Yeap that more or less accurate. Unlike Omollo you've tried to be objective. However this still sort of broad-brush where county like Kisii or Nyamira or Mombasa  are assign to coalition although Jubilee got nearly 25% of the vote there...which are not small figures.Anyway I took the trouble to help Omollo with figures. Jubilee stronghold except for Uasin Gishu & West Pokot is really solid - 95-80% - while some of what passes as CORD stronghold (see amber color) Jubilee will most likey score 25% or more -- they are "strongholds".

So until you refine this figures - this misleading.

I went through the numbers: it's true, the additions on Jubilee column should be slightly over 7M, roughly 7 M flat, not 5.7.

If I can attempt/suggest my own rudimentary MOAS formula, I'd say first of all that W.Pokot, Bomet and Mandera (around 670 K or 0.67M) are clear Jubilee based on 2013 patterns; Mandera had like 93 % Uhuru votes. So I would count that as Jubilee, bringing it to around 7.7 M. If we throw in Isiolo and Samburu, it'll be just slightly under 8 M.

For NASA, Western and Nyanza, Coast and Ukambani together are also slightly under 8 M.

That leaves battle ground as Nai, Kajiado, Narok, T. Nzoia, Turkana (debatable but we'll leave it here for now), Garissa, Wajir, Maarsabit, Lamu, which is roughly 3.8 M and if 2013 patterns hold, NASA has a clear edge i this category, it's not exactly 50/50.

NASA has more raw numbers but the gap is not as big as initially thought. People need to come out and vote like they did for registration. Hiyo tu. Turn out will make a very big difference in this election, however you dice it.

[Kadame5]

That is true, mine is just a rough estimate but Nakuru is not 90% Jubilee, is it? Maybe 80%? I am thinking Kisii votes will be like Coast votes this time; around 80% but for projection better to use 2013 patterns.

[RV Pundit]

In what I have classified as Jubilee strongholds - the laggards in 2013-  were Uasin Gishu(73%),West pokot(75%), Nakuru(80%), Laikipia(85%)..others are pretty solid 90% plus...as for CORD you have many counties where CORD scored around 70%(+-5)..with majority around 80%...and only Luo Nyanza+Kamba+Western scored around 90%...so once you nailed down the details...you'll realize NASA has an uphill task.

Uhuru's GEMA+Kalenjin registered votes is nearly 45% of all the registered voters, are reliable in turn out and all Uhuru really need to win nationally to cross 50% is not much (get 4% nationally)- which is why he won in 2013 when Raila beat him in most counties. This time round Uhuru is going to generally do better than he did in 2013 - I can tell you for fact that he'll do better (even if slightly) than 2013 in Turkana, WestPokot,Bungoma,Tranzoia,Marsabit, Isiolo, Lamu, Tana River, Kilifi, Taita Taveta, Kwale, Mombasa, Wajir & Garissa..and possibly even Busia, Nyamira & Gusii...and maybe Machakos/Makueni/Kitui !

As for Gusii - I don't think Raila will improve - Uhuru this time round has solid ground game in Obure-Nyachae (and more than half the mps)- compared to 2013 - when it was only Magara/Nyangeso.ODM/NASA tend to attract loud younger supporters amongst the Gusii but reliable older votes will vote Jubilee...then add the clan matrix.

That is true, mine is just a rough estimate but Nakuru is not 90% Jubilee, is it? Maybe 80%? I am thinking Kisii votes will be like Coast votes this time; around 80% but for projection better to use 2013 patterns.

[Kadame5]

For the Gusii, I only have word of mouth info from people who listen to Gusii radio and talk to folk at home, not much more. The word is that the trend has shifted even further into opposition than 2013 which was itself a very strong shift into the opposition compared to previous elections (minus the Nyachae as candidate once-off thing). Before then, Gusiis tended to be 50/50 more or less. I think it best to assume 90% for Luo-Nyanza and Western, 85% for Ukambani, and 80% for Coast and Kisii, but like I said, it's probably better to presume 2013 patterns for Gusii. Uhuru improving there is highly unlikely in my opinion. New voters are younger, not older, and some of the older have dumped Jubilee, but not all. Anyway, we'll see. NASA needs to make sure its people are at the polls and not at home on election day. That is the battle IMO.

[RV Pundit]

Interesting. What making them mad. That Jubilee is two tribe coalition and perhaps that all benefits has gone to Nyachae family. I'll try find the 2013 discourse on the same..you know I scored a bull-eye in Gusii where I predicted to CORD would win 68/69% and Jubilee 23-25%.

Looking the opinion polls - western is quite interesting - NASa ought to be worried - esp of Bungoma county.

For the Gusii, I only have word of mouth info from people who listen to Gusii radio and talk to folk at home, not much more. The word is that the trend has shifted even further into opposition than 2013 which was itself a very strong shift into the opposition compared to previous elections (minus the Nyachae as candidate once-off thing). Before then, Gusiis tended to be 50/50 more or less. I think it best to assume 90% for Luo-Nyanza and Western, 85% for Ukambani, and 80% for Coast and Kisii, but like I said, it's probably better to presume 2013 patterns for Gusii. Uhuru improving there is highly unlikely in my opinion. New voters are younger, not older, and some of the older have dumped Jubilee, but not all. Anyway, we'll see. NASA needs to make sure its people are at the polls and not at home on election day. That is the battle IMO.

[Kadame5]

Interesting. What making them mad. That Jubilee is two tribe coalition and perhaps that all benefits has gone to Nyachae family. I'll try find the 2013 discourse on the same..you know I scored a bull-eye in Gusii where I predicted to CORD would win 68/69% and Jubilee 23-25%.

Looking the opinion polls - western is quite interesting - NASa ought to be worried - esp of Bungoma county.

For the Gusii, I only have word of mouth info from people who listen to Gusii radio and talk to folk at home, not much more. The word is that the trend has shifted even further into opposition than 2013 which was itself a very strong shift into the opposition compared to previous elections (minus the Nyachae as candidate once-off thing). Before then, Gusiis tended to be 50/50 more or less. I think it best to assume 90% for Luo-Nyanza and Western, 85% for Ukambani, and 80% for Coast and Kisii, but like I said, it's probably better to presume 2013 patterns for Gusii. Uhuru improving there is highly unlikely in my opinion. New voters are younger, not older, and some of the older have dumped Jubilee, but not all. Anyway, we'll see. NASA needs to make sure its people are at the polls and not at home on election day. That is the battle IMO.

I don't think they are mad. I have not been living at home, to be honest. All my information I'm getting from talking to people. I have not been immersed in Kenyan politics for a good while, I'm learning things everyday on this board, playing catch-up if you will. I didn't even know the nitty gritty of that IEBC case. So everything I'm telling you, I have heard from someone else. Family, frienda and friends of friends...that's my source, hehehe.....If I were to venture a guess, I'd say it's just the perception that the Govt ina wenyewe in two tribes and others feeling like they can only belong in a perceived bigger tent in opposition. I've heard a lot about unga and cost of living from regular folk. I don't think it's anything bigger than that.

[RV Pundit]

Totally get it. Yeah Unga is big and perception that Jubilee is 2-tribe arrangment also valid. Unga was Uhuru biggest threat to second time so he has respond to that.

For the Gusii, I only have word of mouth info from people who listen to Gusii radio and talk to folk at home, not much more. The word is that the trend has shifted even further into opposition than 2013 which was itself a very strong shift into the opposition compared to previous elections (minus the Nyachae as candidate once-off thing). Before then, Gusiis tended to be 50/50 more or less. I think it best to assume 90% for Luo-Nyanza and Western, 85% for Ukambani, and 80% for Coast and Kisii, but like I said, it's probably better to presume 2013 patterns for Gusii. Uhuru improving there is highly unlikely in my opinion. New voters are younger, not older, and some of the older have dumped Jubilee, but not all. Anyway, we'll see. NASA needs to make sure its people are at the polls and not at home on election day. That is the battle IMO.

[/quote]
I don't think they are mad. I have not been living at home, to be honest. All my information I'm getting from talking to people. I have not been immersed in Kenyan politics for a good while, I'm learning things everyday on this board, playing catch-up if you will. I didn't even know the nitty gritty of that IEBC case. So everything I'm telling you, I have heard from someone else. Family, frienda and friends of friends...that's my source, hehehe.....If I were to venture a guess, I'd say it's just the perception that the Govt ina wenyewe in two tribes and others feeling like they can only belong in a perceived bigger tent in opposition. I've heard a lot about unga and cost of living from regular folk. I don't think it's anything bigger than that.
[/quote]

[Omollo]

Kadame

Let me indulge you and Pundit:

So let's just say any place (county) where the losing candidate got below 30% is a stronghold of the winner. Thi9s was the original defintion of "Stronghold" before it proved awry for Jubilee pundits and they dumped it for "shifting grounds".

Let's go to work: Here is what I found: (it is done in a hurry and there could be some errors).



So where is NASA is trouble? If you look at the % of the battleground counties, Raila won 9 out of 11. It means he gets most of the remaining 4M battleground votes in any Pundit-prepared MOAS where the 2013 % is factored. He can't cook figures (not that he hasn't done before!)

Pundit ana mchezo wake.

[Omollo]

I am re-checking Mandera voters. Pundit, what is your source for mandera voters?