2017 - Rough MOAS : Improving turn out in NASA stronghold won't help.

[Nefertiti]

No he's no conman, just smartly riding on devolution through performance. Unlike Isaac who has nothing to offer. The tide is on Mutua's side. Kalonzo would be redeemed by NASA win... which is not happening. So Mutua has 5yrs to replicate the Maendeleo model "countrywide" (read Ukambani). Come 2022 Raila won't step down for Kalonzo and that will be the last nail on his coffin.

Mutua is a political conman. He relies on PR so much that every move he makes is calculated based on that.He will lose Machakos seat, all those that will be elected on MCC will defect back to Kalonzo. It easier for them to stay with Kalonzo than try to fight the tide. His only luck is if NASA loses and he wins. As for now he made a costly mistake going against Kalonzo in Ukambani. It is the same mistake that Ruto made in Bomet.

[Kadame5]

No he's no conman, just smartly riding on devolution through performance. Unlike Isaac who has nothing to offer. The tide is on Mutua's side. Kalonzo would be redeemed by NASA win... which is not happening. So Mutua has 5yrs to replicate the Maendeleo model "countrywide" (read Ukambani). Come 2022 Raila won't step down for Kalonzo and that will be the last nail on his coffin.

Mutua is a political conman. He relies on PR so much that every move he makes is calculated based on that.He will lose Machakos seat, all those that will be elected on MCC will defect back to Kalonzo. It easier for them to stay with Kalonzo than try to fight the tide. His only luck is if NASA loses and he wins. As for now he made a costly mistake going against Kalonzo in Ukambani. It is the same mistake that Ruto made in Bomet.

I've heard from more than one person that Mutua is actually in a lot of trouble. Will wait to see if that is true. But what has made you change your tune re NASA loss? Is Pundit that convincing? 

[Globalcitizen12]

Robina,
There is no actual development that Mutua has really done in Machakos county. MCC is dead on arrival. CCM too has not been able to capture the hearts and minds of People in RV. Mutua should embraced Uhururuto at night and Kalonzo during the day. He should have played his cards like Kidero. His ego mislead him to think he could trounce Kalonzo entrenched machinery that easily.

[Kadame5]

Robina,
There is no actual development that Mutua has really done in Machakos county. MCC is dead on arrival. CCM too has not been able to capture the hearts and minds of People in RV. Mutua should embraced Uhururuto at night and Kalonzo during the day. He should have played his cards like Kidero. His ego mislead him to think he could trounce Kalonzo entrenched machinery that easily.

That's what I've heard too, lots of cosmetics and good early P.R. but no true development...at least that's the story that is going round town. I don't know how true it all is but I heard it from more than a few people at home.

[Globalcitizen12]

Kadame5,
That is true. I have not even talked to anyone in Machakos or being there but I can see no one defending him right now in terms of performance. If he had performed he would be standing a chance. I think Mutua went wild and wanted to do a lot with very limited funding. He should have concentrated on one area and done it well. Kabogo focused on improving health facilities and it worked well for him. Without  this he wouldn't even have a fighting chance against waititu but now people are giving him second look.

[Nefertiti]

I've heard from more than one person that Mutua is actually in a lot of trouble. Will wait to see if that is true. But what has made you change your tune re NASA loss? Is Pundit that convincing? 

Not really. Here is someone whose selling point is demonstrable development. I wish him well.

On the other hand, Ruto's adroit strategy will only cement tribalism. Yet he is working it so well. I firmly believe that a Jubilee loss would turn tribalism on its head and give meritocracy a shot. So you can see my disillusionment: I want NASA to win but Pundit's MOAS are hard and cold.

I have no horse this election.

[Kadame5]

I've heard from more than one person that Mutua is actually in a lot of trouble. Will wait to see if that is true. But what has made you change your tune re NASA loss? Is Pundit that convincing? 

Not really. Here is someone whose selling point is demonstrable development. I wish him well.

On the other hand, Ruto's adroit strategy will only cement tribalism. Yet he is working it so well. I firmly believe that a Jubilee loss would turn tribalism on its head and give meritocracy a shot. So you can see my disillusionment: I want NASA to win but Pundit's MOAS are hard and cold.

I have no horse this election.

Well, Pundit is not an idiot, but maybe don't crown him grand prophet just yet. He is not infallible. Me, I've always been ODM but this time I can't vote and have decided to maintain a certain psychological distance and make peace with whatever outcome even though I'm obviously rooting for my guys as usual.

Thing is, I think Kenya split into two some years back. I have not met a single CORD voter who has moved over to Jubilee this time. So I have a hard time believing that people in certain areas have followed Jubilee just because certain leaders have moved this way or that way. I haven't met a single person who has chosen to support Jubilee who did not support it last time. I don't believe NASA will get anything from Bomet either. To me, that sounds like ndoto. I think CORD supporters have never left CORD (now NASA). I don't know a single person who has.

What it'll come down to this time is people showing up to vote or not, assuming there's no IEBC monkeying around. Last time CORD people didn't even register well. It's different this time. So presuming a fairly clean election, I think it comes down to who has a better GOTV strategy.

[Globalcitizen12]

I've heard from more than one person that Mutua is actually in a lot of trouble. Will wait to see if that is true. But what has made you change your tune re NASA loss? Is Pundit that convincing? 

Not really. Here is someone whose selling point is demonstrable development. I wish him well.

On the other hand, Ruto's adroit strategy will only cement tribalism. Yet he is working it so well. I firmly believe that a Jubilee loss would turn tribalism on its head and give meritocracy a shot. So you can see my disillusionment: I want NASA to win but Pundit's MOAS are hard and cold.

I have no horse this election.

Tribalism was cemented in 2007, 2013 and 2017 will just be crowning it as the only standard. One guy called Politicalmaniac who used to post in Jukwaa said this in 2007 " the fate of Kenya rests with Kikuyus and they have the destiny of the country on their hands" I have rephrased his comment. due to Tribalism you can see how hard it is to beat GEMA and Kalenjins.

What would motivate someone from Pokomo, Giriama, or other small communities at coast to get out to vote. They know if they vote for NASA or Jubilee they will still be ignored.

Think how tough it must be from a community like Aembu. They must lay low and make alliance with whichever group that will be in power because without it they will be victimized and lose the little they have.

MOAS really brings it home. I trust Pundit numbers as they have consistently held up. Plus due to nature of his work he has a better understanding Kenya demographics that most of us.

Even with GOTV it is hard for NASA to win.. Correction though on your statement about no changes in CORD support.. I think NASA has gained in Kisii and Western but those gains are not enough to close the margin. Raila may get about 1% more in central. psychological distance is good in this game, last time although i new the outcome was CORD would lose I still did not take it well

[Kadame5]

By the way, what does 'MOAS' stand for? I know it's Pundit's formula but what is it in full?

[Nefertiti]

By the way, what does 'MOAS' stand for? I know it's Pundit's formula but what is it in full?

Energizer of nipate.com called it the Mother Of All Spreadsheets or something like that.

[Globalcitizen12]

Yes it is mother of all spreadsheets.. It been accurate and scientific. Pundit is no longer objective as he is Ruto die hard but I know he will rely on science to deliver his prediction.

[Nefertiti]

Tribalism was cemented in 2007, 2013 and 2017 will just be crowning it as the only standard. One guy called Politicalmaniac who used to post in Jukwaa said this in 2007 " the fate of Kenya rests with Kikuyus and they have the destiny of the country on their hands" I have rephrased his comment. due to Tribalism you can see how hard it is to beat GEMA and Kalenjins.

What would motivate someone from Pokomo, Giriama, or other small communities at coast to get out to vote. They know if they vote for NASA or Jubilee they will still be ignored.

Think how tough it must be from a community like Aembu. They must lay low and make alliance with whichever group that will be in power because without it they will be victimized and lose the little they have.

MOAS really brings it home. I trust Pundit numbers as they have consistently held up. Plus due to nature of his work he has a better understanding Kenya demographics that most of us.

Imagine if Uhuru lost: he retires and Ruto is left with a mammoth Jubilee that crumbles like a balloon. He goes back to the drawing board, minus the patronage, suddenly RV and GEMA blocks are up for grabs. In such a disruption, tribalism losens its iron grip on Kenya. There has been no president from out of Kikuyu and Kalenjin. We need that.

[Globalcitizen12]

A loss by Uhuru will not change tribal Dynamics in Kenya politics it will just postpone it trajectory. Tribal politics won't end any time soon ..in 40 year when Kenya is urbanized and about 40 percent of population is consompolitant then tribalism will cease being a factor. Right now the non tribal Kenyan are still an outlier.

[Nefertiti]

Well, Pundit is not an idiot, but maybe don't crown him grand prophet just yet. He is not infallible. Me, I've always been ODM but this time I can't vote and have decided to maintain a certain psychological distance and make peace with whatever outcome even though I'm obviously rooting for my guys as usual.

Thing is, I think Kenya split into two some years back. I have not met a single CORD voter who has moved over to Jubilee this time. So I have a hard time believing that people in certain areas have followed Jubilee just because certain leaders have moved this way or that way. I haven't met a single person who has chosen to support Jubilee who did not support it last time. I don't believe NASA will get anything from Bomet either. To me, that sounds like ndoto. I think CORD supporters have never left CORD (now NASA). I don't know a single person who has.

What it'll come down to this time is people showing up to vote or not, assuming there's no IEBC monkeying around. Last time CORD people didn't even register well. It's different this time. So presuming a fairly clean election, I think it comes down to who has a better GOTV strategy.

Pundit is a tribal oracle. He is saying exactly what you have: each side keeps their base and Jubilee wins. See the title.

[gout]

Mutua has worked for Machakos but he is done. He just like Isaac picked (bad) cards too early - seems everybody was certain that Kalonzo won't say no to the Jubilee billions.  The anti-kikuyu sentiments among the Kamba could be surprisingly higher than the Luos!! This must be what informed/complicated Kalonzo's game plan. NASA has Kamba vote under lock and key if these sentiments persists.

[Omollo]

Day In Day out, you make so many unsubstantiated claims nobody takes them seriously. I will only respond to the serious stuff...

Issue no 1; TURN OUT

I have no problem backing up my claims unchallenged. All you have to do is point out what you need backed up.

I checked the 2013 turn out - and it was really good everywhere except - Turkana, Mombasa, Kwale & Kilifi. Those are facts. 2013 turn out is off the charts - Luhyas who normally turn up at 50-60% turned up at 86%(Bungoma)-88%(Busia).

Let's use the No Show Voter Numbers: These are the top no show counties and which coalition they leaned. 6 0ut of ten were CORD areas representing 540,000 votes versus 200K Jubilee. That points at an active vote suppression

1. Nairobi-318,138-Fifty/Fifty
2. Mombasa-136,429-CORD
3. Kilifi-117,958-CORD
4. Kakamega-92,682-CORD/Amani
5. Kiambu-80,093-Jubilee
6. Nakuru-79,001-Jubilee
7. Machakos-73,018-CORD
8. Kisii-64,283-CORD
9. Bungoma-59,457-CORD
10. Meru-57,446-Jubilee

The Turn-OUT riddle that will be answered in 9th August is...

1) Can we replicate 2013 turn out (86%), the highest in kenya history  - previously the highest we have ever turned out was 72% - this one thing MOAS got wrong .I didn't in my wildest imagination  foresee 86% And this was across the board. I am leaning towards IEBC machines failing and when manual backup was allowed - it become free for all? . And Raila(CORD) ought to be thankful for that turn out - coz Uhuru was winning by 53%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

And where do you pluck 53% from ?

2) If turn out goes back to "normal"  -Kenya goes to historical average of 70% - then CORD is in BIG trouble - Jubilee core base of GEMA+Kalenjin have historical turned out at  85-90%. In the NASA coalition -only Luo Nyanza can boast of similar record. That will knock 3% of NASA sails! Uhuru win goes to 55%.

As you note all that is conditional on turnout being higher in Jubilee Strongholds and being low in NASA areas.

What you are not stating is why there should be such a scenario. Is there any factor akin to ICC where kalenjins were told that Raila was saying they were all murderers? How about Kikuyuland where the usual scare-mongering occurred?

Clearly you are upping the possibility of a high turn out and completely ignoring the factors suggesting it may not be that high.

There is also the electronic tinkering which you naturally deny but which we know happens and working hard to see an end to it.

3) If the answer is yes - then I doubt anybody can top up 2013 - except in those few counties -mainly in COAST - where turn out can be improved - which would add 1% advantage to NASA.

This is how the NIS topped up Uhuru (read very carefully because you have moved in to an echo chamber):

1. Having gained access to the IEBC database with administrative authority, Jubilee - NIS raided the database early in the morning and grabbed about 2 million voters from across the country.
2. They did this by indicating that the said voters had already voted. Thus whenever they surfaced at any polling station to vote they would be sent away and told they had already voted. To maximize their gains they targeted CORD areas so that they did not inadvertently grab voters who were already voting for Jubilee
3. "Armed" with these voters, they carefully "transferred" most to other areas where there would be little scrutiny. Here Polling officers could be told what figures to transmit to the IEBC after the elections. They distributed these 2 million votes across the country, making phone calls to Polling officers and ROs to receive and enter the results. In fact CORD only got evidence of some of these (the smaller fraction) from CORD strongholds where they were forced to doctor results after it became impossible to add any more in Jubilee zones without attracting attention or breaking the turnout and registered voters total.
4. The NIS working with the IEBC would then adjust the number of registered voters in a given location to include the new inflated numbers and keep within the "normal" turnout and under the Registered Voters. Hence Only the IEBC could tell how many voters were in any given area.
5. To guard against recounts ordered by activist judges, centres were created where ballots already obtained from friendly printers and augmented by those printed locally (when NIS using a commissioner obtained samples from the printer) they would mark the actual ballots and then deliver them for storage at "secure" locations. One such centre was at Kenyatta University.

It would be harder but not impossible to repeat. They can't set up fake polling stations or inflate figures at existing ones because of the 700 voter limit and the demand that ALL polling stations be published, complete with the number of voters.

N

note: these % are not idle talk - but based on my multivariate regression analysis .

I must say while doing MOAS - turn out has always been very very hard to model. It pretty easy to assign ethnic votes to various basket but turn out is nearly impossible to nail...which is why in my MOAS I always have +_3% error margin (otherwise if you understand the tribal tapestry of our great nation kenya - you can nail how people will vote - long before they turn up).

You are trying hard to doctor the process to given you the desired outcome. That can not work.

Issue No 2: Registration.
Without going into details - the stars if I can remember were Kiambu, Kajiado, Meru - those are Jubilee leaning zones. I can ran comparison per county for newly added votes and see which side did well.

And please don't monitor me. I am simple man.

[Omollo]

Mutua has worked for Machakos but he is done. He just like Isaac picked (bad) cards too early - seems everybody was certain that Kalonzo won't say no to the Jubilee billions.  The anti-kikuyu sentiments among the Kamba could be surprisingly higher than the Luos!! This must be what informed/complicated Kalonzo's game plan. NASA has Kamba vote under lock and key if these sentiments persists.

I am glad when someone states facts without considering vested interests.

I find it comical reading about Mutua's popularity and how he will beat Kalonzo. When this comes from Pundit, I find it even harder to believe his percentages (the ones he grabs from the polluted Kampala air).

Mutau is going nowhere. Jirongo is going nowhere! Nyaga is going nowhere!

Kalonzo will get the highest share of the vote in Ukambani he has ever gotten - even when he ran for president. He has consolidated his hold, he has Ngilu in the tent and no real opposition to him. He is the King having brought in Jubilee surrogates like Wavinya Ndeti and Kibaki holdover Kibwana. The rest are Jubilee Tumbocrats like Mutambo Joe and Ndile etc. They have zero traction.

Mutua's candidates in Ukambani have changed tactics and are supporting NASA and opposing Jubilee. Several asked him to stay away and when he turned up, they were no show.

Any way, hatuko mbali, Pundit will pay 100 USD to Veritas if Mutua loses. I will pay the same if he wins. Mine will be donated to any charity Veritas chooses.

[RV Pundit]

Omollo, you are of course obtuse by choice! CORD or NASA base is wider than Jubilee. As you well known Jubilee core is really Kalenjin+GEMA. Historically - I am talking every election or referendum - there are people who always almost turn up to vote - If I recall I'd place Kalenjin top, Kikuyu next, Luo 3rd(only coz they turn up for Raila - and didn't for Kibaki in 02) and Meru+Embu fourth. Whatever the election - Kalenjin always turned up on average 85-90%. It doesn't matter if national average turn out is 50-60% but 90% of kalenjin show up to vote (or well ballot stuffing happens). Historically our national turnout has been around 60-70%. Historically we know the places that don't turn up...North Eastern for obvious reason, COAST, Western and Gusii. These are regions if you study historical trends - have always turn up at 40-60%!.

Now if you want to win election and you're Jubilee - you don't want Gusii, Luhyas, Coast and all the hostile tribes - cranking up their numbers from the usual 55% to 86%

If Jubilee wanted to rig 2013 - clearly they wouldn't have engineered such huge turn out - they know their core base are ever reliable and turn out -

In short  - if you're not obtuse - thanks to turn out increasing from 70-72% (in election before 2013) to 86% - Raila gained more votes from western, gusii, coast and other areas - my calculation says he got 3% bump.He would have scored 40%.

If NASA want to win - they need to not only maintain that turn out but crank it up a little harder.

Jubilee have a reliable core base...that only Luos in NASA can rival.

It not rigging that gave 2-Kabila a win - it combination of higher registration & higher voter turn out - that suddenly transform GEMA+Kalenjin into 45% behemoth instead of says 37% - as per the population share!

Now reply with the usual NIS nonsense.

Day In Day out, you make so many unsubstantiated claims nobody takes them seriously. I will only respond to the serious stuff...

Issue no 1; TURN OUT

I have no problem backing up my claims unchallenged. All you have to do is point out what you need backed up.

I checked the 2013 turn out - and it was really good everywhere except - Turkana, Mombasa, Kwale & Kilifi. Those are facts. 2013 turn out is off the charts - Luhyas who normally turn up at 50-60% turned up at 86%(Bungoma)-88%(Busia).

Let's use the No Show Voter Numbers: These are the top no show counties and which coalition they leaned. 6 0ut of ten were CORD areas representing 540,000 votes versus 200K Jubilee. That points at an active vote suppression

1. Nairobi-318,138-Fifty/Fifty
2. Mombasa-136,429-CORD
3. Kilifi-117,958-CORD
4. Kakamega-92,682-CORD/Amani
5. Kiambu-80,093-Jubilee
6. Nakuru-79,001-Jubilee
7. Machakos-73,018-CORD
8. Kisii-64,283-CORD
9. Bungoma-59,457-CORD
10. Meru-57,446-Jubilee

The Turn-OUT riddle that will be answered in 9th August is...

1) Can we replicate 2013 turn out (86%), the highest in kenya history  - previously the highest we have ever turned out was 72% - this one thing MOAS got wrong .I didn't in my wildest imagination  foresee 86% And this was across the board. I am leaning towards IEBC machines failing and when manual backup was allowed - it become free for all? . And Raila(CORD) ought to be thankful for that turn out - coz Uhuru was winning by 53%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

And where do you pluck 53% from ?

2) If turn out goes back to "normal"  -Kenya goes to historical average of 70% - then CORD is in BIG trouble - Jubilee core base of GEMA+Kalenjin have historical turned out at  85-90%. In the NASA coalition -only Luo Nyanza can boast of similar record. That will knock 3% of NASA sails! Uhuru win goes to 55%.

As you note all that is conditional on turnout being higher in Jubilee Strongholds and being low in NASA areas.

What you are not stating is why there should be such a scenario. Is there any factor akin to ICC where kalenjins were told that Raila was saying they were all murderers? How about Kikuyuland where the usual scare-mongering occurred?

Clearly you are upping the possibility of a high turn out and completely ignoring the factors suggesting it may not be that high.

There is also the electronic tinkering which you naturally deny but which we know happens and working hard to see an end to it.

3) If the answer is yes - then I doubt anybody can top up 2013 - except in those few counties -mainly in COAST - where turn out can be improved - which would add 1% advantage to NASA.

This is how the NIS topped up Uhuru (read very carefully because you have moved in to an echo chamber):

1. Having gained access to the IEBC database with administrative authority, Jubilee - NIS raided the database early in the morning and grabbed about 2 million voters from across the country.
2. They did this by indicating that the said voters had already voted. Thus whenever they surfaced at any polling station to vote they would be sent away and told they had already voted. To maximize their gains they targeted CORD areas so that they did not inadvertently grab voters who were already voting for Jubilee
3. "Armed" with these voters, they carefully "transferred" most to other areas where there would be little scrutiny. Here Polling officers could be told what figures to transmit to the IEBC after the elections. They distributed these 2 million votes across the country, making phone calls to Polling officers and ROs to receive and enter the results. In fact CORD only got evidence of some of these (the smaller fraction) from CORD strongholds where they were forced to doctor results after it became impossible to add any more in Jubilee zones without attracting attention or breaking the turnout and registered voters total.
4. The NIS working with the IEBC would then adjust the number of registered voters in a given location to include the new inflated numbers and keep within the "normal" turnout and under the Registered Voters. Hence Only the IEBC could tell how many voters were in any given area.
5. To guard against recounts ordered by activist judges, centres were created where ballots already obtained from friendly printers and augmented by those printed locally (when NIS using a commissioner obtained samples from the printer) they would mark the actual ballots and then deliver them for storage at "secure" locations. One such centre was at Kenyatta University.

It would be harder but not impossible to repeat. They can't set up fake polling stations or inflate figures at existing ones because of the 700 voter limit and the demand that ALL polling stations be published, complete with the number of voters.

N

note: these % are not idle talk - but based on my multivariate regression analysis .

I must say while doing MOAS - turn out has always been very very hard to model. It pretty easy to assign ethnic votes to various basket but turn out is nearly impossible to nail...which is why in my MOAS I always have +_3% error margin (otherwise if you understand the tribal tapestry of our great nation kenya - you can nail how people will vote - long before they turn up).

You are trying hard to doctor the process to given you the desired outcome. That can not work.

Issue No 2: Registration.
Without going into details - the stars if I can remember were Kiambu, Kajiado, Meru - those are Jubilee leaning zones. I can ran comparison per county for newly added votes and see which side did well.

And please don't monitor me. I am simple man.

[RV Pundit]

NASA will take Ukambani presidential votes but by slighly lower percentage (2-5% less than 2013) - But Kalonzo will struggle to win the other seats. That I am willing to bet.

I am glad when someone states facts without considering vested interests.

I find it comical reading about Mutua's popularity and how he will beat Kalonzo. When this comes from Pundit, I find it even harder to believe his percentages (the ones he grabs from the polluted Kampala air).

Mutau is going nowhere. Jirongo is going nowhere! Nyaga is going nowhere!

Kalonzo will get the highest share of the vote in Ukambani he has ever gotten - even when he ran for president. He has consolidated his hold, he has Ngilu in the tent and no real opposition to him. He is the King having brought in Jubilee surrogates like Wavinya Ndeti and Kibaki holdover Kibwana. The rest are Jubilee Tumbocrats like Mutambo Joe and Ndile etc. They have zero traction.

Mutua's candidates in Ukambani have changed tactics and are supporting NASA and opposing Jubilee. Several asked him to stay away and when he turned up, they were no show.

Any way, hatuko mbali, Pundit will pay 100 USD to Veritas if Mutua loses. I will pay the same if he wins. Mine will be donated to any charity Veritas chooses.

[RV Pundit]