Shifting Ground in Rift Valley

[Omollo]

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Raila today received hundreds of defectors from Jubilee. Yesterday Lyndia Ntimama stated what we have known for a while now: Jubilee is a hard sell in Narok and Maasailand generally.

The National Super Alliance (NASA) has said that it does not consider Rift valley a Jubilee zone and told Deputy President William Ruto to forget the 'six-piece suit' voting pattern.

NASA officials in Ruto's home turf said the Deputy President should be prepared for a rude shock in the August polls, arguing that the region was warming up to the Opposition and other parties outside Jubilee.

The DP is said to be keen to have the region adopt a 'six-piece suit' voting pattern to ensure the Jubilee party has majority representatives at all levels.

Independent candidates are however posing a big threat to Jubilee's supremacy in the region after disgruntled nomination losers decided to go it alone.

An ODM official in the region, David Songok, said the party was targeting more than 300,000 votes in Uasin Gishu alone and close to 2.5 million in the former Rift Valley Province.

But Nandi Jubilee Senate nominee Kiprotich Cherargei insisted that Rift Valley was a Jubilee stronghold.

ALSO READ: Top ODM leaders fail to agree on candidates

"There is fanatical support for Jubilee in the region. We are soon launching a serious campaign to dispel any doubts," he said.

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001240874/rift-valley-votes-belong-to-raila-leaders-tell-dp-ruto

[RV Pundit]

Let the dream on. We had the same in run-up to 2013 and when results came it was whitewash. This time round it a rout.

[Kichwa]

Pundit, they say the generals fight the last battle.  You are stuck in 2013.  A lot has changed since then. Jubilee is the incumbent party in power with all the trappings of power but its going into this elections worse off than it was in 2013.  There is no emotive ICC maneno; they failed to "finish" Raila as was predicted and promised; they are now a known commodity and there is buyers remorse; corruption through the roof; blatant tribalism; unemployment in stratosphere, a horrible economy for Wanjikus all over the land; etc.   This is not 2013 my friend.

Let the dream on. We had the same in run-up to 2013 and when results came it was whitewash. This time round it a rout.

[Omollo]

KM

Wachana na Pundit. Recall when we also failed to read all the clear signs that were spelled out for the blind to read?

The worst campaign that Raila ever ran was 2013. He made serious mistakes and he allowed his core retinue to be infiltrated. Jubilee reached a fellow like Owalo (he like Namwamba has come out lately to confirm he was a poisonous snake hiding in a hole in the bedroom all these years. He wants to force Raila to campaign against winners of party nominations for the so called "independents")

Uhuru stole the elections openly. He calculated that Raila would not call for mass action.

My take is this: Raila has NOT lost any bit of his constituency unlike Jubilee (not that Pundit would see that with a million magnifying glasses!). If we went to elections today he would win hands down.

Jubilee is got incumbency hanging around its neck like a dead and stinking albatross. Where they presented Raila as the incumbent in 2013 (and carefully ignored mentioning Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru) it is not washing this time. They have tried to claim that Raila, Kalonzo, Mudavadi and Wetangula have served collectively longer than them but they got it back in their faces when proper calculations showed Uhuru had been in government LONGER than Raila by the time he was becoming President.

It is amazing one can come to power with the arrogance that characterized Ruto and Uhuru and then return to people to seek votes. Uhuru perfected tribalism. Even as he seeks office, he makes no effort to take corrective measures and appoint non Kikuyus to key positions : https://kenyastockholm.com/2015/05/08/the-face-of-tribalism-in-uhurus-government-what-the-charts-say/

Pundit, they say the generals fight the last battle.  You are stuck in 2013.  A lot has changed since then. Jubilee is the incumbent party in power with all the trappings of power but its going into this elections worse off than it was in 2013.  There is no emotive ICC maneno; they failed to "finish" Raila as was predicted and promised; they are now a known commodity and there is buyers remorse; corruption through the roof; blatant tribalism; unemployment in stratosphere, a horrible economy for Wanjikus all over the land; etc.   This is not 2013 my friend.

Let the dream on. We had the same in run-up to 2013 and when results came it was whitewash. This time round it a rout.

[RV Pundit]

Like I said dream on and wake me up on morning on 9th August - two months - from now - for the usual - Kura imeibwa.

[Omollo]

Like I said dream on and wake me up on morning on 9th August - two months - from now - for the usual - Kura imeibwa.

I will indeed wake you up. Just note that this time it will be you saying tumeibiwa. We are not planning to lose to theft again. It happened in 2007 (which acknowledge) and 2013 (which you refuse to admit). The difference is that in 2007 you were aggrieved but in 2013 you were part of the perpetrators.

[RV Pundit]

Nope there were evidence of Kibaki blatant theft all-over which was documented by most election observers and that is why we had NARA. In 2013 - Jubilee won it clean - beating CORD with nearly 1m votes - I don't know how much more you wanted beaten. Jubilee won outright majority in parliament.Kibaki's PNU ha 45mps and ODM proceeded to win Speaker & Deputy Speaker.Jubilee basically won on all seats by same margin. And CORD went to supreme court and they lost 6 - nil. Majority of election observers gave the election thumb ups. All circumstantial evidence pointed an big Uhuru win...CORD wanted a second round hoping they would attract MaDVD votes..and now you've that chance now.

This election is more or less a repeat of 2013- Uhuru will at worse case win with 50.5% like he did in 2013 but most likely more - having made inroads in opposition strongholds from Turkana to Kwale .

Pretty booring elections if you ask me. The outcome is well known. Uhuru retains his PORK having kept intact his 2013 coalition. Raila takes maDVD 4% (Amani - Kanu+New Ford Kenya -basically ANC) and end up around 47-48%.

I will indeed wake you up. Just note that this time it will be you saying tumeibiwa. We are not planning to lose to theft again. It happened in 2007 (which acknowledge) and 2013 (which you refuse to admit). The difference is that in 2007 you were aggrieved but in 2013 you were part of the perpetrators.

[Nefertiti]

A Jubilee loss would be a great disruption of our tribal politics but I don't bet on it.  Look at Narok and  Ukambani, NASA doesn't have it together.