The Lid Bursts Open: Kabogo to Run Independent

[Omollo]

• Tweet

It is either a game to hoodwink Ruto or Kabogo has decided to run off the reserve. He today announced an independent run citing a shambolic nomination exercise.

There are similar murmurings all over central.

Uhuru will lose nothing in a competition between Kabogo and Waititu. Both will ask their supporters to vote for Muthamaki.  The possible loser is of course Ruto, incase Kabogo wins and returns to the scene an angry man.

There is a rumor that Peter Kenneth might run. The two may need to coordinate because many Kiambu voters streamed down in to Nairobi to influence the vote. Kabogo needs them back in Kiambu and Kenneth probably likes it that way especially if they will follow the instructions of the Kamandas of this world to vote for Sonko. Waititu has already vacuum cleaned every unemployed Kikuyu riff raff to register in Kiambu.

I have no idea what this means for Sonko and Kidero. I think the "audited" IEBC database will be very interesting.

[Nefertiti]

I don't see any of these independent runners making it in Central. None with Ruto issues. RV is a different area. PK won't be able to rock Sonko's boat sufficiently thanks to his urban-poor coalition and of course Uhuru's influence. Sonko is taking his time to settle on a runningmate.

Meticulous Ruto is yet to be tested in GEMA. Munya looks likely to sail through with 2022 promises but he is a struggler with little say beyond muguka region.

NASA needs to snap the carpet from under Ruto's board instead of praying on the elements. Coalition-wise there is more drama in Ukambani where Mutua has declared a 2022 run to top the Wiper troubles.

The crystal ball so far looks like Present Ruto and long live tribal politics. Bad for our democracy.

[Omollo]

On Ruto the strategy is to avoid attacking him while "encouraging" him to attack NASA and its leaders. The most stupid mistake one can make in an election period is to attack a populist demagogue. He transforms that in to votes. So NASA decided to let him do it and it is working. He faced anger in Mumias and Bungoma. All NASA can do is ask a junior functionary to apologize and urge the youth to respect all people - even those who come to insult them.

I am hoping they will "return the hand" and send the police or the "youth" to disrupt a NASA rally.

For now they have their hands full. Kikuyu youth are demonstrating and burning tyres all over Nairobi over the promised SGR jobs. We didn't even know Uhuru had promised to employ all of them on the SGR

Sonko has run short of cash. He relied on WSR to bankroll him to send Kenneth home. Unless Kenneth makes an independent run and Kidero appears weak, Ruto is likely to play Machiavellian politics and nudge Kidero to victory. I think he wants a boring easy to beat thief in Nairobi and Kidero fits the bill.

Like I said, Sonko and Waititu depend on the same thugs. Waititu has gathered them from all tribes. He needs them in Kiambu. Sonko wants the same floating votes. Kennth's from Murang'a would most likely vote against Sonko if Kenneth is not running. There in lies the dilemma: If they stay in Kiambu to vote for Waititu, they leave Sonko naked in Nairobi. If they go to Kiambu to ensure Kabogo stays out, may be Kenneth makes it. Which is why I think Kenneth must coordinate with Kabogo or else both won't make it.

To explain further: The primaries for Nairobi, Murang'a and Kiambu should have been done at the same time. That was the plan. WSR staggered them. Thus he took a chance that Sonko will manage to get his buses from everywhere to beat Kenneth. In which case they just had to vote multiple times after the rules were relaxed to allow an ID card and the use of ordinary ink on the finger which was washed off.

Waititu did the same in Kiambu.

But with real elections, there will be scrutiny. All parties will be watching to ensure they are not robbed.

I don't see any of these independent runners making it in Central. None with Ruto issues. RV is a different area. PK won't be able to rock Sonko's boat sufficiently thanks to his urban-poor coalition and of course Uhuru's influence. Sonko is taking his time to settle on a runningmate.

Meticulous Ruto is yet to be tested in GEMA. Munya looks likely to sail through with 2022 promises but he is a struggler with little say beyond muguka region.

NASA needs to snap the carpet from under Ruto's board instead of praying on the elements. Coalition-wise there is more drama in Ukambani where Mutua has declared a 2022 run to top the Wiper troubles.

The crystal ball so far looks like Present Ruto and long live tribal politics. Bad for our democracy.

[Nefertiti]

NASA has no winning strategy and are betting on luck aka Jubilee's failure... a slam dunk on Kibaki that won't work with Ruto. Ruto is not winning because of the magic transformation of Kenya which we know is voodoo. He is a tribal master. Uhuru is the springboard and Pundit and Duale the cheerleaders.

I want Jubilee to lose because that would turn Ruto's plan on its head, DISRUPT tribal politics, and create a window of opportunity for meritocracy... with the likes of Dr Mutua getting a shot.

[gout]

Unless those nominated become just too callous, careless and arrogant like Kabogo pre nominations, there won't be any elections in the strongholds. 

Given our recycling culture those who lost out want to keep their names relevant for 2022 given we will be throwing away 70% of the incumbents.

[Nefertiti]

Omollo if you want to assess Raila's roadmap to nowhere just see the mediocre attempt to recreate 2007 with NASA Pentagon. Is that the best brand name to energize his base? For starters there should be a serious MATUSA at the table. And a Somali too.

[RV Pundit]

http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Kiunjuri-denies-plot-to-kick-out-Mt-Kenya-MPs/1064-3928498-7vdq00z/index.html
I see a whole lot of folks who lost are blaming kiunjuri too. The fact of the matter is that Jubilee nomination were seen as largely free and fair - I just don't see how these independent candidate hope to spring a win - they are making wild allegations that Ruto and Kiunjuri engineered their losses from all over - - but wananachi ni wale wale.

In the meantime Omollo is still getting the heat whenever Ruto visit his western homeground  - Jubilee I doubt is taking western that seriously  - athough Bungoma & Kakamega Jubilee crew seem unaware that western is nasa zone.

http://nipate.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=68494&tmx=1494912068

[hk]

http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Kiunjuri-denies-plot-to-kick-out-Mt-Kenya-MPs/1064-3928498-7vdq00z/index.html
I see a whole lot of folks who lost are blaming kiunjuri too. The fact of the matter is that Jubilee nomination were seen as largely free and fair - I just don't see how these independent candidate hope to spring a win - they are making wild allegations that Ruto and Kiunjuri engineered their losses from all over - - but wananachi ni wale wale.

In the meantime Omollo is still getting the heat whenever Ruto visit his western homeground  - Jubilee I doubt is taking western that seriously  - athough Bungoma & Kakamega Jubilee crew seem unaware that western is nasa zone.

http://nipate.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=68494&tmx=1494912068

This legislators are delusional, in nyeri Mutahi kagwe was a distant third in gubernatorial race, Kabando was fourth in mukurweini, gethinji was 3rd in tetu. Let them run as independents they'll be humiliated. The only person who I think might win is Nderitu mureithi in laikipia. Kiunjuri strikes fear in all this legislators because he communicates directly to citizens via local radios and tv stations. Mt. Kenya region has what's equivalent of talk radio and Tv stations that are very influential.
On another note I am excited of likely election of Wahome Gakuru as governor of Nyeri. He's former CEO of Vision 2030, as marketing strategist of equity bank, he came up and implemented "I am a member" campaign which catapulted equity bank from a small bank to the behemoth is now. The guy is not moneyed unlike his competitors its us who're contributing small amounts to make sure he wins.

[RV Pundit]

That is insightful - these folks were floored so badly I don't know how they can recover - Kabogo lost 1:6 votes. Yeah Wahome is good one. 

This legislators are delusional, in nyeri Mutahi kagwe was a distant third in gubernatorial race, Kabando was fourth in mukurweini, gethinji was 3rd in tetu. Let them run as independents they'll be humiliated. The only person who I think might win is Nderitu mureithi in laikipia. Kiunjuri strikes fear in all this legislators because he communicates directly to citizens via local radios and tv stations. Mt. Kenya region has what's equivalent of talk radio and Tv stations that are very influential.
On another note I am excited of likely election of Wahome Gakuru as governor of Nyeri. He's former CEO of Vision 2030, as marketing strategist of equity bank, he came up and implemented "I am a member" campaign which catapulted equity bank from a small bank to the behemoth is now. The guy is not moneyed unlike his competitors its us who're contributing small amounts to make sure he wins.

[Omollo]

Western, Nyanza and Coast are all my home grounds. I merely report what is going on. It is amazing a man knows he is unwanted and continues to waste energy on rallies. Why can't he concentrate on plugging leaking support in RV?

Incidentally are you aware Ruto's friend and contact man in Kisii - Deputy Governor Maangi - just returned to ODM? This leaves Obure (who has stated that he has been blackmailed to join Jubilee or he'll end up in prison and lose his businesses as well as the turncoat Nyachae family that no longer commands the respect of the dogs on their own doorsteps

Jubilee nominations were not seen to be free. That is your spin and it ain't working. You had more cases in your tribunal and had to lock the gates to stop more. That resulted in people rushing to the Parties Tribunal and when they realized that it had been compromised after Laikipia Governor used it, most went independent and a few rushed to the courts. Kabogo is just an example of that mess and no amount of white-washing by Tuju will change that

http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Kiunjuri-denies-plot-to-kick-out-Mt-Kenya-MPs/1064-3928498-7vdq00z/index.html
I see a whole lot of folks who lost are blaming kiunjuri too. The fact of the matter is that Jubilee nomination were seen as largely free and fair - I just don't see how these independent candidate hope to spring a win - they are making wild allegations that Ruto and Kiunjuri engineered their losses from all over - - but wananachi ni wale wale.

In the meantime Omollo is still getting the heat whenever Ruto visit his western homeground  - Jubilee I doubt is taking western that seriously  - athough Bungoma & Kakamega Jubilee crew seem unaware that western is nasa zone.

http://nipate.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=68494&tmx=1494912068

[Omollo]

Unless those nominated become just too callous, careless and arrogant like Kabogo pre nominations, there won't be any elections in the strongholds. 

Given our recycling culture those who lost out want to keep their names relevant for 2022 given we will be throwing away 70% of the incumbents.

You can't know the outcome beforehand. Every election has its own dynamics.

[RV Pundit]

Maangi like Mwakere long fell in favour  and had to ran to ODM after Obure nominated Nyangweso as deputy governor - as you know Obure won with 200,000 votes - and is very popular in Gusii.

Western, Nyanza and Coast are all my home grounds. I merely report what is going on. It is amazing a man knows he is unwanted and continues to waste energy on rallies. Why can't he concentrate on plugging leaking support in RV?

Incidentally are you aware Ruto's friend and contact man in Kisii - Deputy Governor Maangi - just returned to ODM? This leaves Obure (who has stated that he has been blackmailed to join Jubilee or he'll end up in prison and lose his businesses as well as the turncoat Nyachae family that no longer commands the respect of the dogs on their own doorsteps

Jubilee nominations were not seen to be free. That is your spin and it ain't working. You had more cases in your tribunal and had to lock the gates to stop more. That resulted in people rushing to the Parties Tribunal and when they realized that it had been compromised after Laikipia Governor used it, most went independent and a few rushed to the courts. Kabogo is just an example of that mess and no amount of white-washing by Tuju will change that

http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Kiunjuri-denies-plot-to-kick-out-Mt-Kenya-MPs/1064-3928498-7vdq00z/index.html
I see a whole lot of folks who lost are blaming kiunjuri too. The fact of the matter is that Jubilee nomination were seen as largely free and fair - I just don't see how these independent candidate hope to spring a win - they are making wild allegations that Ruto and Kiunjuri engineered their losses from all over - - but wananachi ni wale wale.

In the meantime Omollo is still getting the heat whenever Ruto visit his western homeground  - Jubilee I doubt is taking western that seriously  - athough Bungoma & Kakamega Jubilee crew seem unaware that western is nasa zone.

http://nipate.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=68494&tmx=1494912068

[Omollo]

NASA knows that:

1. Central will largely vote for Uhuru regardless of who they vote for in Gubernatorial, Senatorial, etc contests
2. There will be attempts to stuff ballots but multiple competing candidates may reduce but not eliminate that.
 

This legislators are delusional, in nyeri Mutahi kagwe was a distant third in gubernatorial race, Kabando was fourth in mukurweini, gethinji was 3rd in tetu. Let them run as independents they'll be humiliated. The only person who I think might win is Nderitu mureithi in laikipia. Kiunjuri strikes fear in all this legislators because he communicates directly to citizens via local radios and tv stations. Mt. Kenya region has what's equivalent of talk radio and Tv stations that are very influential.
On another note I am excited of likely election of Wahome Gakuru as governor of Nyeri. He's former CEO of Vision 2030, as marketing strategist of equity bank, he came up and implemented "I am a member" campaign which catapulted equity bank from a small bank to the behemoth is now. The guy is not moneyed unlike his competitors its us who're contributing small amounts to make sure he wins.

[Omollo]

Maangi like Mwakere long fell in favour  and had to ran to ODM after Obure nominated Nyangweso as deputy governor - as you know Obure won with 200,000 votes - and is very popular in Gusii

Obure and Ongeri are equally popular. However Ongeri was in the wrong party and paid for it while Obure was in ODM and won along with a man who had been Kibaki's PS but shifted to the rid won.

I keep trying to teach you lessons you just don't pick. Remember Kamotho? For years he stuck with KANU for the money and power. In 2002 he saw the writing on the wall and did what he knew he should have done years ago: Joined the opposition to KANU. He won hands down and without a single campaign rally in his native constituency.

I am willing to bet you on Obure. In fact any amount.

[RV Pundit]

Obviously Obure has not got your memo despite his long political experience ...longer than Ongwae.Clannism in Kisii is big factor. Obure aligning with Nyachaes is counter-punch against Ongwae/Onyonka/Ongeri.Seeing the nomination numbers he got - I am not going to dismiss Obure numbers that much.

Gusii have always voted nearly 50-50 in every election. Last time they had issues with Ruto (due to PEV of 2007) so Uhuru scored 30% and as of  now that anger seem to have dissipated. Going by by-elections results I am thinking this contest is now 60-40 - I am willing to give ODM 20% advantage. Definitely Jubilee willl do much better than it did in 2013 - now they've got more serious politician doing it's bidding from Kisii and Nyamira county.

Obure and Ongeri are equally popular. However Ongeri was in the wrong party and paid for it while Obure was in ODM and won along with a man who had been Kibaki's PS but shifted to the rid won.

I keep trying to teach you lessons you just don't pick. Remember Kamotho? For years he stuck with KANU for the money and power. In 2002 he saw the writing on the wall and did what he knew he should have done years ago: Joined the opposition to KANU. He won hands down and without a single campaign rally in his native constituency.

I am willing to bet you on Obure. In fact any amount.

[Omollo]

Pundit

There is "clanism" in Central too but not when it comes to the Presidential vote.

I rely more on facts than my own declarations or beliefs based on some undefined "shifting grounds". When Maangi defected it was hailed as evidence of the "shifting ground". He has now un- defected but that ground remains unshifted. We had MPs led by Onyonka defecting and that was a shifting ground. They un-defected and that did not affect the ground. Clearly there is no logic to this shifting ground or it is only discernible when the defections are heading towards Jubilee and that, Pundit will be Jubilee's downfall. Remember it when doing your post-mortem in September this year.

I do recall you saying both governors in Kisii had defected to Ruto. Nothing came of it. Let me let you in to a secret: Many ODM MPs are financing their campaigns thanks to the free flowing cash from Ruto. He was known as the Jubilee Mobile ATM

Obviously Obure has not got your memo despite his long political experience ...longer than Ongwae. Clannism in Kisii is big factor. Obure aligning with Nyachaes is counter-punch against Ongwae/Onyonka/Ongeri. Seeing the nomination numbers he got - I am not going to dismiss Obure numbers that much.

Gusii have always voted nearly 50-50 in every election. Last time they had issues with Ruto (due to PEV of 2007) so Uhuru scored 30% and as of  now that anger seem to have dissipated. Going by by-elections results I am thinking this contest is now 60-40 - I am willing to give ODM 20% advantage. Definitely Jubilee willl do much better than it did in 2013 - now they've got more serious politician doing it's bidding from Kisii and Nyamira county.

[RV Pundit]

My record in these things is out there - and your dismal record is out there - and come september as always you'll have gone MIA. Last time it was 30%;70% (MOAS I think predicted that) and this time round i am seeing (60%;40%); Jubilee has certainly clawed back some significant support. That is why Obure won with 200,000 plus votes in Jubilee nomination.

Pundit

There is "clanism" in Central too but not when it comes to the Presidential vote.

I rely more on facts than my own declarations or beliefs based on some undefined "shifting grounds". When Maangi defected it was hailed as evidence of the "shifting ground". He has now un- defected but that ground remains unshifted. We had MPs led by Onyonka defecting and that was a shifting ground. They un-defected and that did not affect the ground. Clearly there is no logic to this shifting ground or it is only discernible when the defections are heading towards Jubilee and that, Pundit will be Jubilee's downfall. Remember it when doing your post-mortem in September this year.

I do recall you saying both governors in Kisii had defected to Ruto. Nothing came of it. Let me let you in to a secret: Many ODM MPs are financing their campaigns thanks to the free flowing cash from Ruto. He was known as the Jubilee Mobile ATM

Obviously Obure has not got your memo despite his long political experience ...longer than Ongwae. Clannism in Kisii is big factor. Obure aligning with Nyachaes is counter-punch against Ongwae/Onyonka/Ongeri. Seeing the nomination numbers he got - I am not going to dismiss Obure numbers that much.

Gusii have always voted nearly 50-50 in every election. Last time they had issues with Ruto (due to PEV of 2007) so Uhuru scored 30% and as of  now that anger seem to have dissipated. Going by by-elections results I am thinking this contest is now 60-40 - I am willing to give ODM 20% advantage. Definitely Jubilee willl do much better than it did in 2013 - now they've got more serious politician doing it's bidding from Kisii and Nyamira county.

[Omollo]

Pundit

It is shameful when you parade nomination figures. Wavinya Ndeti scored close to 300K in Machakos.

Good luck with your 70% in Kisii. Note that Obure scored less than Raila in Kisii.

My record in these things is out there - and your dismal record is out there - and come september as always you'll have gone MIA. Last time it was 30%;70% (MOAS I think predicted that) and this time round i am seeing (60%;40%); Jubilee has certainly clawed back some significant support. That is why Obure won with 200,000 plus votes in Jubilee nomination.

[RV Pundit]

Omollo,
You're wasting your time. I am excellent in reading our political space. I scored a bull-eye on Gusii (and many places except for Western -maDVD/Amani were turned inside out by Raila -  and turn out nearly blew the perfect MOAS- which was historically higher than anything we've seen -- this really help Raila because he was not going to get 40%. MOAS was so accurate you need to take it seriously. None of opinion poll came even close to that.

Here is recap  - I predicted Raila would score 67% with Uhuru scoring 27% madvd 4% and others 2%  in Gusii & Kuria----- and see how that turned out [exactly] like that -67% in Gusii and 66% in Nyamira for Raila- with uhuru scoring 28-29%. And you wonder how did I know that - by reading the political tea leaves - and now I am telling you that Uhuru this time round will do well (40% against 60%).


" NO.
"   "CONSTITUENCY NAME
"   "Registered votes
"   "%estimate IEBC Age Registration
"   2002 General Elections Turnout   
2005 Referendum Turn out
2010 Referendum
Turn out   
Historical Turn out Average   
"Projected 2013 Turn out
"   "Expected Cast Votes
"   "CORD
"   "JUBILEE
"   AMANI   "OTHERS
"   "Total
"   CORD   "JUBILEE
"   "AMANI
"   "Others
259 "KURIA WEST
"   36,956 "51.5%
"   53%   53%   82.66   60   60   30548   67   27   4   2   100   20468   8248   1222   291   
260 "KURIA EAST
"   25,842 "54.3%
"   53%   53%   72.8   60   60   18813   67   27   4   2   100   12605   5080   753   549   
261 "BONCHARI
"   38,749 "72.5%
"   45%   45%   50.39   60   60   19526   67   27   4   2   100   13083   5273   782   313   
262 "SOUTH MUGIRANGO
"   51,020 "68.8%
"   41%   41%   51.1   60   60   26072   67   27   4   2   100   17469   7040   1043   271   
263 "BOMACHOGE
BORABU
"   39,286 "78.6%
"   39%   39%   62.83   60   60   24684   67   27   4   2   100   16539   6665   988   317   
264 "BOBASI
"   67,959 "76.7%
"   42%   42%   62.06   60   60   42176   67   27   4   2   100   28258   11388   1688   332   
265 "BOMACHOGE
CHACHE
"   31,459 "72.1%
"   42%   42%   65.76   60   60   20688   67   27   4   2   100   13861   5586   828   304   
266 "NYARIBARI MASABA
"   43,976 "77.3%
"   43%   43%   63.31   60   60   27842   67   27   4   2   100   18655   7518   1114   258   
267 "NYARIBARI CHACHE
"   58,574 "96.8%
"   40%   40%   64.38   60   60   37710   67   27   4   2   100   25266   10182   1509   347   
268 "KITUTU CHACHE
NORTH
"   37,841 "78.1%
"   45%   45%   63.18   60   60   23908   67   27   4   2   100   16019   6456   957   399   
269 "KITUTU CHACHE
SOUTH
"   45,629 "74.1%
"   41%   41%   62.97   60   60   28733   67   27   4   2   100   19252   7758   1150   611   
270 "KITUTU MASABA
"   75,563 "81.4%
"   39%   39%   63.31   60   60   47839   67   27   4   2   100   32053   12917   1914   377   
271 "WEST MUGIRANGO
"   60,459 "81.2%
"   42%   42%   64.38   60   60   38924   67   27   4   2   100   26080   10510   1557   391   
272 "NORTH MUGIRANGO
"   42,029 "73.7%
"   42%   42%   63.18   60   60   26554   67   27   4   2   100   17792   7170   1063   522   
273 "BORABU
"   41,565 "76.1%
"   43%   43%   62.97   60   60   26174   67   27   4   2   100   17537   7067   1047   494   

[Omollo]

If I sat in some NIS safe house fixing results having hacked the IEBC I too would get it 100%. You have been at the front of denying rigging and never explained the uncanny figures which prove doctoring.

I can assure you one thing: Uhuru better campaign and get normal votes. If not he accepts to lose and foreswears rigging. Otherwise there will be no country for him. He knows where Gbagbo and wife are