To pundits, on the independent candidate phenomenon

[Nefertiti]

Well, I know you have 15 year track record of punditry... which has turned into massive ego and hubris. Omollo is dead wrong on Mutua but his prediction on your downfall might just come true. You said the MOAS come down to 51-50 Jubilee... down from 60 then 55 to 53%  One ground that has been shifting [sic] is the tribal nature of our politics to issues. So we have Sonkos, Johos and Mutuas, who would never win under tribe basis. Masters of tribalism will slowly lose power... along with tribal pundits That is the progress we want. So we vote out tribal master players like Ruto... no matter how sweet their lies be.

If I counted how many times you've been completely wrong; you'd rival Omollo. The recent one was PK - who got beaten like a luhya drum. The nonsense you wrote on that is all over here.

There is nothing like 50-50 split. Politics is dynamics so if there will be need to revise this - then I will revise the %.As of now - I am seeing Jubilee increase their 50.50% to 53% or more. We will crunch the numbers. Last time I had huge problems knowing how the Luhyas will flow - this time we know they will go Raila(NASA) - so make our work easier - add 4% to 44% (we can ignore the fact tha AMANI had wamalwa & gideon moi)- and you've Raila at max of 48% - now ran the numbers he has lost in battle ground counties from Turkana all the way to Kwale - and you'd be suprised it a lot - and so add 2% that Jubilee win thanks to incumbency - and remove 2% from Raila - and you'll get solid numbers - 53% versus 46% - with 1% going to others.

[RV Pundit]

Turkana - he has lost Munyes ( a seasoned politician) who is now front-runner for governor, host of Mps and Mcas - if that will bring jubilee zero extra votes from 30% they go there (through Senate Speaker - Ethuro) then I don't think we are talking politics.

The same can be applied in all battle ground states. Look at Taveta - Voi Mp- ODM Raila Minister - Sen Mwazo (plus other mps) now Jubilee - is for me front runner for govenor - as Odm Thomas Mwandegu and current govenor butcher themselves in Taita. In 2013-- Jubilee was so unpopular in Taita Taveta they got I think 18% of the vote. The same is happening in Kwale - ODM is fighting with Wiper - leaving Murvya to romp home.

You can pick any battle ground county -and Ruto work is very apparent. Mombasa - Jubilee has strong Shabbil with Mwaboza - fighting against Joho - they may not win but it will be close.

1. How has he lost in Turkana?
2. How has he lost in Kwale?

[RV Pundit]

There you go with lies to sooth your ego. I am not tribal master. I can just read politics better than you. I predicted Sonko would win due to his  low class non-tribal political base. It either you have the intelligence (IQ) to read these can kind of social events or you don't. I can read politician moves without talking to any politician - they've to make the moves in public chess board anyway. Never talked to Ruto nor even seen him up close - but I can read his moves all the way from Kampala where I am now based.

Well, I know you have 15 year track record of punditry... which has turned into massive ego and hubris. Omollo is dead wrong on Mutua but his prediction on your downfall might just come true. You said the MOAS come down to 51-50 Jubilee... down from 60 then 55 to 53%  One ground that has been shifting [sic] is the tribal nature of our politics to issues. So we have Sonkos, Johos and Mutuas, who would never win under tribe basis. Masters of tribalism will slowly lose power... along with tribal pundits That is the progress we want. So we vote out tribal master players like Ruto... no matter how sweet their lies be.

[Omollo]

I see you're getting angrier and angrier as facts stare at you. The last opinion poll I saw in Machakos - showed Dr Mutua enjoying 75% support. Mutuma and Kalonzo are spending their time now killing each other --- leave room for Mutua's Chap Chap and even Jubilee to win some.

Somebody who has tarmacked so many kms of roads, supplied ambulance to 70 hospitals, supplied water to nearly every household and etc cannot be beaten easily.

This is not someone like Isaac Ruto with Zero.Zero development record.

I can see Mutua got you with his PR. The fight is between Kiala (with Muthama's support) and Wavinya Ndeti (with Kalonzo support). There is no room in between for Mutua. He is going home. Look at the votes from 2013 and disabuse yourself of the Pundit MOAS madness. If he applied it as he claims he should arrive at Oblivion as the final destination of Mutua. But I keep hearing - The ground has shifted because some Tumbocrat sold himself to Jubilee.

Ngilu joined Uhuru and went ahead to LOSE in her own backyard! If Ngilu can lose in Kitui how about better educated and more cosmopolitan Machakos? Ndeti too lost because of dalliance with Jubilee. Let us base our suppositions on facts not imaginary shifting grounds based on the size of Mutua's sycophancy.

[Nefertiti]

You are very clever and arrogant... I observe you as keenly as you observe Ruto Some columnists even copy your stuff. Omollo understands politics too but is blinded by anti-GEMA syndrome. He gave up driving the wedge with Kalenjin and is now cheering Raila with a false hype.

I have learnt to respect numbers. My backing of PK, besides principle, was based on the huge following by Nairobi MPs. Literally all Jubilee MPs minus Waweru. I was wrong. Unlike Omollo I don't oppose Uhuru out of spite but disappointment with snail progress he touts as outstanding performance. In China under one-party communism Xi Jinping leads a personal anti-corruption, anti-mediocracy crusade... in Kenya Uhuru is the silent partaker.

Bottomline I respect MOAS, but they are not hard and cold... more like smart speculation. Unlike 2013 you are no longer confident of UhuRuto victory and I sure hope they lose.

There you go with lies to sooth your ego. I am not tribal master. I can just read politics better than you. I predicted Sonko would win due to his  low class non-tribal political base. It either you have the intelligence (IQ) to read these can kind of social events or you don't. I can read politician moves without talking to any politician - they've to make the moves in public chess board anyway. Never talked to Ruto nor even seen him up close - but I can read his moves all the way from Kampala where I am now based.

[Omollo]

Pundit is a master of double standards.

It means a lack of logic and a love for trashing facts or bending them to one's convenience.

So let us use Mathematical Formulas:

Defection = Shifted Ground.

He says because Senator Munyes left FORD (CORD/NASA) to feed his stomach and is running on Jubilee, he will win the governorship. We shall return to that in a while.

However the same Pundit says that the defection of Isaac Ruto will bring zero votes to NASA!

I am bound to ask if the formula only applies when one is defecting from NASA to Jubilee!

He applies his formula to Kwale and is now squeezing it in Taita Taveta.

I want to say it all nonsense.

Fir starters the main issue in Turkana is Oil. The prevailing view is that Jubilee (or as the locals put it, Kikuyus) want to steal Turkana Oil. Uhuru had one chance to fix it but he opted to insult Nanok. Against that kind of message where a community feels it is being robbed, there is no politician who can swim against that. Come June and you will see scenes that will blow some reality in your cocoon or should I say Echo Chamber. If Uhuru eats humble pie and gives back the Turkana their 10% and removes caps, he might get the same votes he got in 2013 (minus the rigging). In the absence of that, he gets zilch. Munyes is looking to become a minister. He thinks Jubilee will rig and he will be appointed minister for Oil. What an idiot!
 
About Taveta: The issues remain land, Land and Land. The day Uhuru gives back the land, his mistress Naomi will start winning the seat for real and not stealing it. This time I can't see how she will steal. Her game is up.

Mwazo got his seat as Senator thanks to ODM. He leaves it with ODM to take air to Jubilee.

The next Governor of Kwale is Mwakwere. Take that to a foreign owned bank (the Uhuru ones will be collapsing soon). I have been over the Mvurya matter so much I need not waste my energy. You can review my previous analyses.

I take it you are no so bothered by Mung'aro and Kazungu splitting the vote and allowing Kingi back because that only happens in ODM areas.

Now come the absolute madness about Mombasa.

Shah-Baal got Wiper votes. These will go to Omar Hassan. The same Wagunya who voted to Uhuru and before that Kibaki may vote for him again. But since their man TSS died in poverty while Uhuru's tribesmen scavenged his wealth, he may get  a great deal fewer.

The Waitiki Farm debacle where he insulted the squatters sealed his fate in Likoni.

The refusal to devolve the ferry and use it to make money is hurting more than anything else.

Add to that the Dry Port in Naivasha and you should get a rough idea of how many votes Jubilee will get.

Now I can understand that Ruto needs to tell Uhuru that propaganda about having worked hard to get votes at the Coast, Western etc. We know that is how he was getting his billions. But please I am not Uhuru. I have my feet on the ground and can tell you exactly how many votes Uhuru will get in what village anywhere at the coast. The war is between Wiper and ODM for local seats. The Raila takes all the Presidential votes.

Turkana - he has lost Munyes ( a seasoned politician) who is now front-runner for governor, host of Mps and Mcas - if that will bring jubilee zero extra votes from 30% they go there (through Senate Speaker - Ethuro) then I don't think we are talking politics.

The same can be applied in all battle ground states. Look at Taveta - Voi Mp- ODM Raila Minister - Sen Mwazo (plus other mps) now Jubilee - is for me front runner for govenor - as Odm Thomas Mwandegu and current govenor butcher themselves in Taita. In 2013-- Jubilee was so unpopular in Taita Taveta they got I think 18% of the vote. The same is happening in Kwale - ODM is fighting with Wiper - leaving Murvya to romp home.

You can pick any battle ground county -and Ruto work is very apparent. Mombasa - Jubilee has strong Shabbil with Mwaboza - fighting against Joho - they may not win but it will be close.

1. How has he lost in Turkana?
2. How has he lost in Kwale?

[Omollo]

There are many factors behind Sonko's win.

Sonko is just a tribalist like any other. He has been all over Machakos accompanying Uhuru and Ruto to try to use his Kamba-ness to get them votes. He is cultivating the Kamba vote in Nairobi.

In the end he will get as many votes as Waititu. Kidero will carry the day.

I believe you about Ruto. If you had been close enough you would have advised him to trust money less and traitors (of other parties) even lesser.
 

There you go with lies to sooth your ego. I am not tribal master. I can just read politics better than you. I predicted Sonko would win due to his  low class non-tribal political base. It either you have the intelligence (IQ) to read these can kind of social events or you don't. I can read politician moves without talking to any politician - they've to make the moves in public chess board anyway. Never talked to Ruto nor even seen him up close - but I can read his moves all the way from Kampala where I am now based.

Well, I know you have 15 year track record of punditry... which has turned into massive ego and hubris. Omollo is dead wrong on Mutua but his prediction on your downfall might just come true. You said the MOAS come down to 51-50 Jubilee... down from 60 then 55 to 53%  One ground that has been shifting [sic] is the tribal nature of our politics to issues. So we have Sonkos, Johos and Mutuas, who would never win under tribe basis. Masters of tribalism will slowly lose power... along with tribal pundits That is the progress we want. So we vote out tribal master players like Ruto... no matter how sweet their lies be.

[Omollo]

I have no idea why you would suggest that I oppose Uhuru only because of his tribe. I am aware that there some who feel I hate Kikuyus.

I do not hate Kikuyus or Uhuru. I hate Kikuyuism and Uhuruism. It is sad and unfortunate that more often than not, people who support one also support the other. For the record, Uhuruism is Moism without Moi while Kikuyuism is built on tribal supremacy and bigotry.

There is something Pundit can learn from you: MPs do not translate to popular support. He believes MPs defecting to a party means the people follow. It used to happen before. These days it ruins the person. The most celebrated cases were Musalia Mudavadi defecting to KANU lost his seat and the vice-Presidency.

The Moody Awori joined PNU and he went home.

It will take Pundit a very long time to know people have become more sophisticated. They know MPs defect upon being paid huge amounts. They want their share of it or will resist being "sold".

You are very clever and arrogant... I observe you as keenly as you observe Ruto Some columnists even copy your stuff. Omollo understands politics too but is blinded by anti-GEMA syndrome. He gave up driving the wedge with Kalenjin and is now cheering Raila with a false hype.

I have learnt to respect numbers. My backing of PK, besides principle, was based on the huge following by Nairobi MPs. Literally all Jubilee MPs minus Waweru. I was wrong. Unlike Omollo I don't oppose Uhuru out of spite but disappointment with snail progress he touts as outstanding performance. In China under one-party communism Xi Jinping leads a personal anti-corruption, anti-mediocracy crusade... in Kenya Uhuru is the silent partaker.

Bottomline I respect MOAS, but they are not hard and cold... more like smart speculation. Unlike 2013 you are no longer confident of UhuRuto victory and I sure hope they lose.

There you go with lies to sooth your ego. I am not tribal master. I can just read politics better than you. I predicted Sonko would win due to his  low class non-tribal political base. It either you have the intelligence (IQ) to read these can kind of social events or you don't. I can read politician moves without talking to any politician - they've to make the moves in public chess board anyway. Never talked to Ruto nor even seen him up close - but I can read his moves all the way from Kampala where I am now based.

[RV Pundit]

I know you are never interested in facts which make arguing with you such a pointless thing - at least Robina has the humility to admit when she get it's wrong. When I am doing MOAS - I watch all variables - Tuju or Rege defecting will have zilch impact on Raila votes in Nyanza - the same with Kikuyu like Koigi or Mmukindia or Imanyara - or Isaac Ruto - on GEMA and Kalenjin. Those are areas that will vote 95% for a candidate and would take an earthquake kind of movement to crack. It plain waste of time to campaign there seriously. You've got to be as delusional as Moi or Raila were when they tried wooing GEMA.

Now there are areas where one can describe as battle-ground; these are counties like coastal ones; where local issues are as important as national issues; I think you know Kwale enough; so we can use that as an example  - the main tribes in kwale are duruma, digo and Akamba - each of these tribes have their local kingmaker(s) - and those are the folks I watch for - when they defect they most likely will defect with their small tribes or clans (otherwise they won't be leaders?) - which is why when I do MOAS - I like to go as granular as I can get - it also crucial to understand all local dynamics. The Duruma in Kinango will most likely sway with say Chirau Mwakere than the hypothetical Uhuru or Raila fights.You also have to factor urban Kwale - Ukunda - has lots of kikuyus. The same is true for every county in the battle ground - we will go to each county or each constituency - slice them into tribe or sub-tribes or clans - find the major player and see where they aligned and assign them votes accordingly - a kisii in borabu of borabu clan will most likely vote for borabu man - and the party the clan is supporting - if the borabu man is major player - then that count for something - otherwise claiming most GUSII will support NASA is plain bullshiet - it doesn't tell you how many?.

The problematic areas last election for me were places like Luhya (now mostly firmly in NASA -maybe parts of Bungoma is a little fuzzy) - it was apparent MaDVD had big play but Raila also did very well (I got it wrong there) - and this election I think there is a lot of noise in Ukambani - this one is going to be hardest to read -

In any case I don't think you ever been interested in truth or facts - all you do is endless fruitless campaign of the most inane propaganda you can conjure - day in day out - you must lead a really miserable life.

I have no idea why you would suggest that I oppose Uhuru only because of his tribe. I am aware that there some who feel I hate Kikuyus.

I do not hate Kikuyus or Uhuru. I hate Kikuyuism and Uhuruism. It is sad and unfortunate that more often than not, people who support one also support the other. For the record, Uhuruism is Moism without Moi while Kikuyuism is built on tribal supremacy and bigotry.

There is something Pundit can learn from you: MPs do not translate to popular support. He believes MPs defecting to a party means the people follow. It used to happen before. These days it ruins the person. The most celebrated cases were Musalia Mudavadi defecting to KANU lost his seat and the vice-Presidency.

The Moody Awori joined PNU and he went home.

It will take Pundit a very long time to know people have become more sophisticated. They know MPs defect upon being paid huge amounts. They want their share of it or will resist being "sold".

[Nefertiti]

I see. Yes it is for Jubilee to lose, and meticulous Ruto has it all worked out. Thing is his smooth operator is impressive but I don't so like the Kenya his "performance record" has created -- just Kibadinga II minus the squabbling... while we could do so much better. His last issue is to herd GEMA... I hoped PK will emerge as a good check but poor guy got walloped by a drug dealer.

Like you am impressed by Ruto's game which checkmated Raila, but not excited by his system. I have no horse to back.

You don't just form pentagon - even if you don't need it. This election was already won by Jubilee. All they had to do is maintain their 51% coalition that won in 2013. If they have - and I don't see any reason to suggest they haven't - unless you believe Isaac Ruto is better than Gideon Moi in Amani, Henry Kosgey, Sally Kosgey, Franklin Bett, Margager, Prof Sally & so many other ODM folks who supported Raila -- then it's given Uhuru will win at worse the same percentage.

All Ruto need to convince Uhuru was to bring on board the battle ground leaders who will influence local votes - from Munyes up north in Turkana to Murvya down south in Kwale - Uhuru has BUFFER - on add to his 51% of 2013. Ruto has soften the ground in many areas that was anti-Uhuru (coasterian would shake in anger in 2013 after raila propaganda over land - now it nearly 50-50 down there - right from Taveta where Naomi shaban was for first time feeling the heat in nomination) -- all this has been due to Ruto's hard work for 4yrs - soften the ground in battle ground to give Uhuru the comfort zone he need to nick this - so he can forgo bringing in more players like MaDVD or Kalonzo - who just complicate Ruto's 2022 bid!

So yeah this election is about laying foundation for Ruto. Ruto has spawn several attempts to incorporate Mudavadi into Jubilee. He was coming to complicate issues. Wamalwa was allowed in before he had no issues deputizing Ruto. Anybody that basically has issues with Ruto is not going to go far in Jubilee. Earlier on Ruto worked hard to kick Kalonzo out of Jubilee pre-2013 - he too was just going to bring trouble to Jubilee - he is better out there being taken for a ride by Raila.

The formation of a strong party Jubilee by collapsing 14 parties and the need to ran a fair & credible nomination are all part of LAYING THE GROUND work for KANU like behemoth that will drive Ruto straight to statehouse. Come Sept you'll not even dare oppose a party with 200 out of 350 mps....that is without factoring many more who will be bough to join Jubilee post election.

So yeah you've read this late....this election is Ruto to lose. Ruto is just too meticulous to lose.

So we can proceed to talk 2012 - Ruto only major problem is how to herd GEMA (non-gema in Jubilee already owes him direct allegiance) - he has 4 arrows in his quicker - he has Jubilee party, he has Uhuru kenyatta, he literally has arrows facing 1m plus diaspora kikuyus in RV and he solid record as performer - to convince GEMA - and once that is done - it all the way to statehouse in 2022.

[RV Pundit]

There is no gema leader post -uhuru that has path to 50%- if it was before the 2010 constitution - peter or any ambitious gema politician- would have thought winning the GEMA vote was all they needed - now it not enough.Raila is going to get the HIGHEST ever votes he has ever gotten - about 47% - and yet still lose. The game changed. There is no quickie - like PK waking up from slumber 3 months to election and saying he's gonna be Nairobi Governor coz he is so good looking he doesn't have to campaign - while Sonko been at it for 5yrs

Therefore I see smart leaders like Laikipia's Kiunjuri playing it smart - fighting for Deputy Presidency under Ruto for 10 yrs - building their network & amazing wealth. I think in terms of GEMA vote - the complication is really btw whose turn it is - Muranga and Diaspora Kikuyu feel their turn is on - so far Kiunjuri has the head-way - he plays it smart - he become the 6th President of Kenya.

Anyway let me tell you what a wait you main PK - DOOM. He was played like a song so Sonko could beat him like a song. Then he has been played by being told he will be appointed a minister so he doesn't complicate matters by running as independent. After that he is well done. You can put a fork on him. There won't be any minister position coming his way. Ruto is not going to sharpen the knife that can be used to finish him off (kalenjin saying - don't sharpen the knife of your enemy).

Ruto will simply vetoe any appointment that threaten him - like he did for maDVD. PK will be given a colorless job as chairman of something and that is it. He takes it or leave it...if he decide to divide GEMA with other losers...mandago will shot a warning arrow and Uhuru will bring the hammer down. You don't want to mess with Uhuru - when he get angry.

I see. Yes it is for Jubilee to lose, and meticulous Ruto has it all worked out. Thing is his smooth operator is impressive but I don't so like the Kenya his "performance record" has created -- just Kibadinga II minus the squabbling... while we could do so much better. His last issue is to herd GEMA... I hoped PK will emerge as a good check but poor guy got walloped by a drug dealer.

Like you am impressed by Ruto's game which checkmated Raila, but not excited by his system. I have no horse to back.

[Nefertiti]

DOOM

Yes Mister, your analysis is cold and calculating. I try hard to divorce my attachments to these alpha males from reality. You gotta admit it is Raila-Ruto system ours. Ruto revised the Draft in Naivasha then Raila passed it. Ruto checkmated him again with GEMA deal. Now Ruto is running Government under Uhuru banner... he just suggests ideas for Uhuru to run with... even calls him C-in-C. Apart from Kibadinga roads SGR and other Jubilee agenda are all Ruto URP speech at Bomas... except TNA digital the big flop.

It is RUTO SYSTEM  for two terms - and Raila is powerless to stop him.

There is no gema leader post -uhuru that has path to 50%- if it was before the 2010 constitution - peter or any ambitious gema politician- would have thought winning the GEMA vote was all they needed - now it not enough.Raila is going to get the HIGHEST ever votes he has ever gotten - about 47% - and yet still lose. The game changed. There is no quickie - like PK waking up from slumber 3 months to election and saying he's gonna be Nairobi Governor coz he is so good looking he doesn't have to campaign - while Sonko been at it for 5yrs

Therefore I see smart leaders like Laikipia's Kiunjuri playing it smart - fighting for Deputy Presidency under Ruto for 10 yrs - building their network & amazing wealth. I think in terms of GEMA vote - the complication is really btw whose turn it is - Muranga and Diaspora Kikuyu feel their turn is on - so far Kiunjuri has the head-way - he plays it smart - he become the 6th President of Kenya.

Anyway let me tell you what a wait you main PK - DOOM. He was played like a song so Sonko could beat him like a song. Then he has been played by being told he will be appointed a minister so he doesn't complicate matters by running as independent. After that he is well done. You can put a fork on him. There won't be any minister position coming his way. Ruto is not going to sharpen the knife that can be used to finish him off (kalenjin saying - don't sharpen the knife of your enemy).

Ruto will simply vetoe any appointment that threaten him - like he did for maDVD. PK will be given a colorless job as chairman of something and that is it. He takes it or leave it...if he decide to divide GEMA with other losers...mandago will shot a warning arrow and Uhuru will bring the hammer down. You don't want to mess with Uhuru - when he get angry.

[Omollo]

On the contrary my arguments are based on facts and logic. Where something defies logic I seek to provide an explanation as to the nature of the aberration. I simply seek the same from you.

First I am glad (again) that you now admit you were wrong about Western. It will be a clean Opposition sweep. The Wamalwa Project failed when the plan to impose him in Nairobi collapsed. Sending him to run in Trans Nzoia would have just reminded people those things people believe about our Kikuyu brothers. So Eunice is politically dead and he takes with him Lusaka.

Abou Kwale:

There are some factors you ignore as do many GEMA. They believe that Coast Politicians make Raila and that Raila needs them to get votes. The truth faces them but they refuse to accept because of their tribal conditioning. Let me see if it will work on you:

I have attached Presidential and Gubernatorial results for Kwale. I added Mombasa for enhanced comparison (if I have time may introduce the historical perspective).

You will note that both Joho and Mvurya got fewer votes that Raila. In Kwale Raila got almost twice the votes Mvurya scored. That is largely because he was unpopular and came from a minority of minorities.

There was a considerable pro-Raila protest vote against Mvurya. That alone combined would have come within hundreds of votes of knocking him out. He won because of Raila.

Now Jubilee thinks they have a catch and you say the ground has shifted. I find it a comedy of sorts. So If it is because he has built roads, and hospitals and so like Mutua and therefore he is popular, isn't Isaac Ruto equally "popular" on account of having delivered those things?

Mwakwere like Kamotho has suffered from being in the wrong party. Form the days he joined NARC and won then crossed to Kibaki's wing, his fortunes changed. When I met him at various fora while he was minister for Foreign Affairs, he was clear that he wanted wealth and thus made his choice. I think he has made enough and genuinely wants to work with his people. It would be a miracle for Mvurya to beat him. I can assure you they will not count Mwakwere's votes in Kwale! They will weigh them. He only needs Raila to calm the forces that have fought him for years and have adjustment issues. Again look at the Kinango votes for Raila.

Mwakwere comes from Matuga.

The only problem is in Lunga Lunga from trouble maker and womanizer Mwashetani. He controls about 20K Tanzanian Digo votes which he deploys. He may well donate those to Uhuru. The last time he couldn't donate all. NASA will take steps to neutralize him even without Juma Boy.

Uhuru can forget Luhyaland unless Raila kills a man in public in Kakamega. But it will depend on the man's tribe.

Lastly I respect places where Uhuru scored 80 plus. I know any such majority takes years to wipe out except special circumstances.

So explain to me why you believe Uhuru will wipe out 80% support given to Raila in Kilifi? What special circumstances are there? Gideon Mungaro? You put it to the test and lost.

Mwisho Kabisa: How many by-elections did Jubilee win while in power? Do not ignore that indicator. It will tell you if you truly have take some of NASA's votes or if they have taken yours.

 

I know you are never interested in facts which make arguing with you such a pointless thing - at least Robina has the humility to admit when she get it's wrong. When I am doing MOAS - I watch all variables - Tuju or Rege defecting will have zilch impact on Raila votes in Nyanza - the same with Kikuyu like Koigi or Mmukindia or Imanyara - or Isaac Ruto - on GEMA and Kalenjin. Those are areas that will vote 95% for a candidate and would take an earthquake kind of movement to crack. It plain waste of time to campaign there seriously. You've got to be as delusional as Moi or Raila were when they tried wooing GEMA.

Now there are areas where one can describe as battle-ground; these are counties like coastal ones; where local issues are as important as national issues; I think you know Kwale enough; so we can use that as an example  - the main tribes in kwale are duruma, digo and Akamba - each of these tribes have their local kingmaker(s) - and those are the folks I watch for - when they defect they most likely will defect with their small tribes or clans (otherwise they won't be leaders?) - which is why when I do MOAS - I like to go as granular as I can get - it also crucial to understand all local dynamics. The Duruma in Kinango will most likely sway with say Chirau Mwakere than the hypothetical Uhuru or Raila fights.You also have to factor urban Kwale - Ukunda - has lots of kikuyus. The same is true for every county in the battle ground - we will go to each county or each constituency - slice them into tribe or sub-tribes or clans - find the major player and see where they aligned and assign them votes accordingly - a kisii in borabu of borabu clan will most likely vote for borabu man - and the party the clan is supporting - if the borabu man is major player - then that count for something - otherwise claiming most GUSII will support NASA is plain bullshiet - it doesn't tell you how many?.

The problematic areas last election for me were places like Luhya (now mostly firmly in NASA -maybe parts of Bungoma is a little fuzzy) - it was apparent MaDVD had big play but Raila also did very well (I got it wrong there) - and this election I think there is a lot of noise in Ukambani - this one is going to be hardest to read -

In any case I don't think you ever been interested in truth or facts - all you do is endless fruitless campaign of the most inane propaganda you can conjure - day in day out - you must lead a really miserable life.

[RV Pundit]

Omollo - I see you missed my main point when you dived into the details ( I guess obstufication) - my point is every player has to be analyzed - Raila 80% in Kwale & Kilifi - without even going far - we know is not gonna hold - coz he has lost many of his key lieutenant who hold sway in their own small enclaves.Coast was not always Raila - it was actually KANU's (bar Mombasa - lots of -wabara kambas/Kikuyus/Luos/Luhya there) - but we know Raila's NDP trojan horse that saw Raila turning from a centrist to devolution/majimbo guy - I think Ruto has been going around exposing Raila for the fraud he is - he is just empty talk of "majimbo" but has nothing to show for that Majimbo - Just like Isaac Ruto who is shouting Mashinani -but cannot account for billions Bomet received - with zero development. You cannot compare what Prof Chepkowny (who was rebel did) with Isaac has done (nothing) or what Mandago has done-- that is why Mandago, Chepkwony & Tolgos came back - their develpoment record speak for itself - Joho/Kingi mmh iko shida.

You're in for a shock if you think governors will be re-elected based on anything else than development record - closeness to Raila or Ruto or Uhuru count for nothing for the governors - people know they received billions - and they want to see Machakos like results.


In short politics is very fluid - Raila is not holding his 80% in many part of coasts - it been eroded ferociously by WSR who has spent 4yrs working on it - while Raila flies down there to collect money from Joho & Kingi. I think main reason why coast governors fell out with Raila is because they refused to contribute money to pamper Raila.

The main reason why Uhuru was such hard sell in coast was because he is a kenyatta - his father land grab in coast - sent shivers down coastarian and Raila capitalized on it - and now coastarian have had Uhuru for 5yrs - and they don't see the land grab  - they see someone who has given them 4m title deeds, settled waitiki land finally and has delivered lots of tarmac roads. That is gonna count. Selling Uhuru in coast now is way easier.

The last by-election showed the numbers were tightening - the coast is now soft enough for incumbent to play it's advantage.

And  lets not get carried away - the coast from lamu,tana river, kilifi,mombasa, kwale and taita tavet - is mere  1.5-2m votes - which Kiambu alone can handle -- even if you score 80% - it not a lot of votes. It like western - not that many votes - in four counties!!

On the contrary my arguments are based on facts and logic. Where something defies logic I seek to provide an explanation as to the nature of the aberration. I simply seek the same from you.

First I am glad (again) that you now admit you were wrong about Western. It will be a clean Opposition sweep. The Wamalwa Project failed when the plan to impose him in Nairobi collapsed. Sending him to run in Trans Nzoia would have just reminded people those things people believe about our Kikuyu brothers. So Eunice is politically dead and he takes with him Lusaka.

Abou Kwale:

There are some factors you ignore as do many GEMA. They believe that Coast Politicians make Raila and that Raila needs them to get votes. The truth faces them but they refuse to accept because of their tribal conditioning. Let me see if it will work on you:

I have attached Presidential and Gubernatorial results for Kwale. I added Mombasa for enhanced comparison (if I have time may introduce the historical perspective).

You will note that both Joho and Mvurya got fewer votes that Raila. In Kwale Raila got almost twice the votes Mvurya scored. That is largely because he was unpopular and came from a minority of minorities.

There was a considerable pro-Raila protest vote against Mvurya. That alone combined would have come within hundreds of votes of knocking him out. He won because of Raila.

Now Jubilee thinks they have a catch and you say the ground has shifted. I find it a comedy of sorts. So If it is because he has built roads, and hospitals and so like Mutua and therefore he is popular, isn't Isaac Ruto equally "popular" on account of having delivered those things?

Mwakwere like Kamotho has suffered from being in the wrong party. Form the days he joined NARC and won then crossed to Kibaki's wing, his fortunes changed. When I met him at various fora while he was minister for Foreign Affairs, he was clear that he wanted wealth and thus made his choice. I think he has made enough and genuinely wants to work with his people. It would be a miracle for Mvurya to beat him. I can assure you they will not count Mwakwere's votes in Kwale! They will weigh them. He only needs Raila to calm the forces that have fought him for years and have adjustment issues. Again look at the Kinango votes for Raila.

Mwakwere comes from Matuga.

The only problem is in Lunga Lunga from trouble maker and womanizer Mwashetani. He controls about 20K Tanzanian Digo votes which he deploys. He may well donate those to Uhuru. The last time he couldn't donate all. NASA will take steps to neutralize him even without Juma Boy.

Uhuru can forget Luhyaland unless Raila kills a man in public in Kakamega. But it will depend on the man's tribe.

Lastly I respect places where Uhuru scored 80 plus. I know any such majority takes years to wipe out except special circumstances.

So explain to me why you believe Uhuru will wipe out 80% support given to Raila in Kilifi? What special circumstances are there? Gideon Mungaro? You put it to the test and lost.

Mwisho Kabisa: How many by-elections did Jubilee win while in power? Do not ignore that indicator. It will tell you if you truly have take some of NASA's votes or if they have taken yours.

 

I know you are never interested in facts which make arguing with you such a pointless thing - at least Robina has the humility to admit when she get it's wrong. When I am doing MOAS - I watch all variables - Tuju or Rege defecting will have zilch impact on Raila votes in Nyanza - the same with Kikuyu like Koigi or Mmukindia or Imanyara - or Isaac Ruto - on GEMA and Kalenjin. Those are areas that will vote 95% for a candidate and would take an earthquake kind of movement to crack. It plain waste of time to campaign there seriously. You've got to be as delusional as Moi or Raila were when they tried wooing GEMA.

Now there are areas where one can describe as battle-ground; these are counties like coastal ones; where local issues are as important as national issues; I think you know Kwale enough; so we can use that as an example  - the main tribes in kwale are duruma, digo and Akamba - each of these tribes have their local kingmaker(s) - and those are the folks I watch for - when they defect they most likely will defect with their small tribes or clans (otherwise they won't be leaders?) - which is why when I do MOAS - I like to go as granular as I can get - it also crucial to understand all local dynamics. The Duruma in Kinango will most likely sway with say Chirau Mwakere than the hypothetical Uhuru or Raila fights.You also have to factor urban Kwale - Ukunda - has lots of kikuyus. The same is true for every county in the battle ground - we will go to each county or each constituency - slice them into tribe or sub-tribes or clans - find the major player and see where they aligned and assign them votes accordingly - a kisii in borabu of borabu clan will most likely vote for borabu man - and the party the clan is supporting - if the borabu man is major player - then that count for something - otherwise claiming most GUSII will support NASA is plain bullshiet - it doesn't tell you how many?.

The problematic areas last election for me were places like Luhya (now mostly firmly in NASA -maybe parts of Bungoma is a little fuzzy) - it was apparent MaDVD had big play but Raila also did very well (I got it wrong there) - and this election I think there is a lot of noise in Ukambani - this one is going to be hardest to read -

In any case I don't think you ever been interested in truth or facts - all you do is endless fruitless campaign of the most inane propaganda you can conjure - day in day out - you must lead a really miserable life.

[Omollo]

I give up. Let's wait to count Kilifi votes.