To pundits, on the independent candidate phenomenon

[Nefertiti]

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Both RV- and Nyanza Pundit 

It is agreed devolution is a new dynamic in Kenyan politics. Instead of the cabinet, the governor's mansion is the rope to scale the height of national politics. But since the recent primaries, the number of independent candidates has risen dramatically. I have seen commentaries projecting the independent candidate as a potential faction in the 12th parliament, including the county assembly.

Your take? - is the independent candidate going to tame the party?

[RV Pundit]

That depend. I think six-piece voting patterns will still rule where primaries were seen as free and fair. Most independents are people who lost in primaries. I think jubilee conducted credible polls and so independent candidates say in RV & Central are not going anywhere.

ODM and Wiper conducted the most farcical nominations and so expect independent candidates to win some.

The loser here is small briefcase parties that use to wait for primaries to reap from the fall out- now people are going independent.

[Nefertiti]

And how do you see it impacting turnout? Most independents claim allegiance to UhuRuto or Raila/Kalonzo; NASA is bound to reap bigger on PORK while losing the downstream ballots. This occurred in Nairobi in 2013: rather than abstain, followers of primary defectors showed up big time. Raila beat Uhuru in Nairobi.

That depend. I think six-piece voting patterns will still rule where primaries were seen as free and fair. Most independents are people who lost in primaries. I think jubilee conducted credible polls and so independent candidates say in RV & Central are not going anywhere.

ODM and Wiper conducted the most farcical nominations and so expect independent candidates to win some.

The loser here is small briefcase parties that use to wait for primaries to reap from the fall out- now people are going independent.

[RV Pundit]

It's good for turn out.Raila won Nairobi coz he had bigger tribal coalition in Nairobi - Luo, Luhyas and Kambas - are already about 47% of the vote while  GEMA are probably 35%(including Merus). I don't see anything much changing in Nairobi. Raila has the small advantage although Sonko might be able to win some Kamba votes for Uhuru. I'd keep the same 45-48%(Jubilee) versus 52-55% (NASA).

And how do you see it impacting turnout? Most independents claim allegiance to UhuRuto or Raila/Kalonzo; NASA is bound to reap bigger on PORK while losing the downstream ballots. This occurred in Nairobi in 2013: rather than abstain, followers of primary defectors showed up big time. Raila beat Uhuru in Nairobi.

[Omollo]

Pundit

I think you should have responded to Robina without adding a heavy dose of Jubilee Propaganda to it.

Let me respond to her first before rebutting your shameless propaganda:

Robina

There is no room for Independent MPs or governors in Kenya. Those who manage to win will be independent in name and nothing else. Most if not all the independents will be aligned to one of the two main forces - NASA or Jubilee. Both camps witness the so called independents endorsing the alliance before asking for a vote.

We have the so called Third Way which is basically a Jubilee outfit run by Nancy Gitau. Euro Turncoat or is it Ekuru Aukot is a washed up Jubilee mouldwarp of many years who used to report to Kibaki on the progress of the Katiba. Baradhuli kabisa.

And now on the Jubilee propaganda:

There are objective ways one can judge who between Jubilee and NASA conducted shambolic primaries rather than declaratory statements from party hacks.

1. Jubilees primaries were attempted and were all cancelled on the first day amid acrimonious exchanges, rigging and interference
2. Jubilee now unable to carry them out as a party, enlisted the Provincial Administration in the manner Uhuru learnt from Moi. County Commissioners then took over with Ruto using them to rig in and out whoever he wanted ( i have posted unlimited evidence of that here and can repeat on request and unchallenged)
3. The conduct of the said primaries all over Kenya descended into violence and demonstrations. From Isaac Mwaura losing and ear, teargas in Nakuru (the first ever in a Jubilee zone), mass demos in Molo and running battles to gangland shootings in Central starting with Githurai;
4. The sheer number of complaints, appeals and protests dwarfed anything seen in ODM. At one time they had over 600 appeals and had locked the gate to prevent new ones coming in;
5. The number of high level complaints - from Governors and Governor aspirants, Senators and MPs dwarfed anything from the entire NASA
6. There have been more court injunctions against Jubilee than ODM / NASA
7. The number of complaints and appeals from MCAs in Jubilee is more than half of the total number of aspirants.

That depend. I think six-piece voting patterns will still rule where primaries were seen as free and fair. Most independents are people who lost in primaries. I think jubilee conducted credible polls and so independent candidates say in RV & Central are not going anywhere.

ODM and Wiper conducted the most farcical nominations and so expect independent candidates to win some.

The loser here is small briefcase parties that use to wait for primaries to reap from the fall out- now people are going independent.

[Omollo]

Tribunal orders Jubilee to repeat Narok North Constituency primaries within 48 hrs following petition by Agnes Nailantei Shonko. pic.twitter.com/0b7XjkBCQo

— Citizen TV Kenya (@citizentvkenya) May 10, 2017

[RV Pundit]

Omollo - I think Jubilee aspirants trusted Jubilee enough to appeal - majority of those who went through ODM or Wiper farcical nomination just immediately jumped ship without wasting in a tribunal that was rigged - starting with Busia Otuoma - who I think is gonna win as Busia Independent Governor.

The verdict.As always we will find out in August 9th when Omollo as always will be MIA.

I mean Omollo records pretty speak for itself; make all ridiculous angry accusation alleging all sort of conspiracies and when the day comes - disappear or appear with even bigger conspiracies or lame excuses.

My political punditry speak for itself - for more than 15yrs  - and I haven't had to disappear in shame.

Jubilee party are gonna win close to 200mps of the 290 elected Mps...leaving NASA with about 90. I don't even know how NASA think they can win elections when they are clearly going to be hammered in parliament.

[Omollo]

Well, you are entitled to your opinion. ODM tribunal was most open and handled all the cases fast and professionally. That is why there have been very few cases of court injunctions or directives from the lesser Political Parties Tribunal. Jubilee is still battling it.

The list of Independent candidates will be out soon and we shall put your theory to the test. Most of the Jubilee aspirants looked ahead and saw Ruto's hand and decamped to KANU, Chap Chap, CCM, PNU, NARC etc. Those are the parties to watch not Ruto's Jubilee.

I not only predicted the NARC win in 2002 but I told WSR and Sunkuli to their faces before I walked out.

In 2007 I clearly stated that my intelligences sources told me Kibaki had decided that since ODM floored him at the Referendum, he would not take another chance to gamble. He planned to steal. You were among those who called me names. I withdrew and watched from a distance and returned to Kenya to help who I could.

In 2013 - I did not say a single word about the elections. Google all day and you will find nothing. I saw Uhuru stealing the election and Raila watching helplessly as he played the statesman.

Since 2002 this is the first election I am participating fully. I never lose an election Brother. If I get any indication between now and the date of nomination that we may lose, I will tell you.

Right now Uhuru is trying his best to lay the groundwork to steal it. He has no chance of winning failry and even you know it.

Omollo - I think Jubilee aspirants trusted Jubilee enough to appeal - majority of those who went through ODM or Wiper farcical nomination just immediately jumped ship without wasting in a tribunal that was rigged - starting with Busia Otuoma - who I think is gonna win as Busia Independent Governor.

The verdict.As always we will find out in August 9th when Omollo as always will be MIA.

I mean Omollo records pretty speak for itself; make all ridiculous angry accusation alleging all sort of conspiracies and when the day comes - disappear or appear with even bigger conspiracies or lame excuses.

My political punditry speak for itself - for more than 15yrs  - and I haven't had to disappear in shame.

Jubilee party are gonna win close to 200mps of the 290 elected Mps...leaving NASA with about 90. I don't even know how NASA think they can win elections when they are clearly going to be hammered in parliament.

[RV Pundit]

Omollo,
Here is what I predicted would be the final parliamentary score in 2013 -for 290 elective constituency seats.
URP 60
TNA 85
Wiper 28
ODM 87
Amani 16
Others 14
And here is what final score was
URP 62
TNA 72  - lost some seat to ARP(mbus)   
ODM 78 - lost some seats to ford k & small parties after bungling nomination - expect the same.
UDF/NFK 16
Wiper 19 - fumbling kalonzo lost many seats in Ukambani to small parties - expect the same.

Then I predicted Uhuru will win first round with 53% with Raila 37% and Amani (8%); All opinion polls were showing Raila would win and there would be a second round.
Then go back to 2010 referendum. Opinion polls and everyone predicted NO would score 18-21% - I predicted bull eyes of 31%.

I can tell you for a fact this election is very easy to predict -the major players have consolidated- compared to 2013 - and from where I stand Jubilee are set for parliamentary majority - a huge one.

I am just waiting for IEBC to release the final tally and we can make this go to bed early - and wake up on 9th August to discuss the post-portem.

No need for long drawn arguments.

[Omollo]

Omollo,
Here is what I predicted would be the final parliamentary score in 2013 -for 290 elective constituency seats.
URP 60
TNA 85
Wiper 28
ODM 87
Amani 16
Others 14
And here is what final score was
URP 62
TNA 72  - lost some seat to ARP(mbus)   
ODM 78 - lost some seats to ford k & small parties after bungling nomination - expect the same.
UDF/NFK 16
Wiper 19 - fumbling kalonzo lost many seats in Ukambani to small parties - expect the same.

Then I predicted Uhuru will win first round with 53% with Raila 37% and Amani (8%); All opinion polls were showing Raila would win and there would be a second round.
Then go back to 2010 referendum. Opinion polls and everyone predicted NO would score 18-21% - I predicted bull eyes of 31%.

I can tell you for a fact this election is very easy to predict -the major players have consolidated- compared to 2013 - and from where I stand Jubilee are set for parliamentary majority - a huge one.

I am just waiting for IEBC to release the final tally and we can make this go to bed early - and wake up on 9th August to discuss the post-portem.

No need for long drawn arguments.

[Nefertiti]

My take is that this is tight. Jubilee has lost tyranny it had in 2013 when they scored 50.08% and surprisingly have narrowed down to 2 principals. They think PK's and Karua's cosmopolitan constituency is bankable... while Raila has pulled in 2 more principals to up his chances.

I think Jubilee is overconfident and COMPLACENT. No Ocampo to scare them now. If Kenya joins the right side of history by sending this duo packing it will be a big win for our democracy. There is nothing transformational Uhuru has done that would make me want Ruto as next PORK. Roads, rails, blah. C plain.

A Jubilee loss would scuttle Ruto's game and open the way for performers like Dr Mutua, etc. Tribal MOUs are bad for democracy.

[Nefertiti]

  What happened to 56% (200/350)?

It will split 50-50 in Parliament just like PORK. The best we can have is PORK without MP majority so appointments can reflect the face of Kenya.

Jubilee party are gonna win close to 200mps of the 290 elected Mps...leaving NASA with about 90. I don't even know how NASA think they can win elections when they are clearly going to be hammered in parliament.

[Omollo]

Without ballot stuffing, its gonna be difficult for Jubilee to get anything close to the MPs it got in 2013.

The IEBC has tentatively been told by KPMG that there are 2.5 million Ghost Voters (the same figure Raila kept saying and being pilloried by the media and Pundit). There is the 100% registration in Kiambu, abnormal registration in Murang'a, Nakuru, Nyeri and Nyandarua. Pundit has surprisingly withheld his Normal Curves which he would be brandishing had it been any other issue.

What Pundit is saying is that Kalenjins and Kikuyus constitute 70% of Kenya. Because 200 MPs represent 70% of the 290 big parliament.

NASA will rain on their party in Narok. This time it will be a clean sweep of Narok and Kajiado. The war is in Bomet and that war will decide the fate of WSR in politics. Should Isaac expand his influence outside Bomet to Kericho (where unpopular Keter is facing serious setbacks) he would have broken the back of WSR in places and ways that cannot be mended. NASA needs 150K votes from him but so far my calculations suggest he has already gone beyond that cumulatively to close to 600K. There is a possibility of 1M depending on how many matusi's WSR will hurl.

What happened to 56% (200/350)?

It will split 50-50 in Parliament just like PORK. The best we can have is PORK without MP majority so appointments can reflect the face of Kenya.

Jubilee party are gonna win close to 200mps of the 290 elected Mps...leaving NASA with about 90. I don't even know how NASA think they can win elections when they are clearly going to be hammered in parliament.

[Omollo]

I can see Mutua got you with his PR. The fight is between Kiala (with Muthama's support) and Wavinya Ndeti (with Kalonzo support). There is no room in between for Mutua. He is going home. Look at the votes from 2013 and disabuse yourself of the Pundit MOAS madness. If he applied it as he claims he should arrive at Oblivion as the final destination of Mutua. But I keep hearing - The ground has shifted because some Tumbocrat sold himself to Jubilee.

Ngilu joined Uhuru and went ahead to LOSE in her own backyard! If Ngilu can lose in Kitui how about better educated and more cosmopolitan Machakos? Ndeti too lost because of dalliance with Jubilee. Let us base our suppositions on facts not imaginary shifting grounds based on the size of Mutua's sycophancy.

My take is that this is tight. Jubilee has lost tyranny it had in 2013 when they scored 50.08% and surprisingly have narrowed down to 2 principals. They think PK's and Karua's cosmopolitan constituency is bankable... while Raila has pulled in 2 more principals to up his chances.

I think Jubilee is overconfident and COMPLACENT. No Ocampo to scare them now. If Kenya joins the right side of history by sending this duo packing it will be a big win for our democracy. There is nothing transformational Uhuru has done that would make me want Ruto as next PORK. Roads, rails, blah. C plain.

A Jubilee loss would scuttle Ruto's game and open the way for performers like Dr Mutua, etc. Tribal MOUs are bad for democracy.

[RV Pundit]

If I counted how many times you've been completely wrong; you'd rival Omollo. The recent one was PK - who got beaten like a luhya drum. The nonsense you wrote on that is all over here.

There is nothing like 50-50 split. Politics is dynamics so if there will be need to revise this - then I will revise the %.As of now - I am seeing Jubilee increase their 50.50% to 53% or more. We will crunch the numbers. Last time I had huge problems knowing how the Luhyas will flow - this time we know they will go Raila(NASA) - so make our work easier - add 4% to 44% (we can ignore the fact tha AMANI had wamalwa & gideon moi)- and you've Raila at max of 48% - now ran the numbers he has lost in battle ground counties from Turkana all the way to Kwale - and you'd be suprised it a lot - and so add 2% that Jubilee win thanks to incumbency - and remove 2% from Raila - and you'll get solid numbers - 53% versus 46% - with 1% going to others.

What happened to 56% (200/350)?

It will split 50-50 in Parliament just like PORK. The best we can have is PORK without MP majority so appointments can reflect the face of Kenya.

[RV Pundit]

I see you're getting angrier and angrier as facts stare at you. The last opinion poll I saw in Machakos - showed Dr Mutua enjoying 75% support. Mutuma and Kalonzo are spending their time now killing each other --- leave room for Mutua's Chap Chap and even Jubilee to win some.

Somebody who has tarmacked so many kms of roads, supplied ambulance to 70 hospitals, supplied water to nearly every household and etc cannot be beaten easily.

This is not someone like Isaac Ruto with Zero.Zero development record.

I can see Mutua got you with his PR. The fight is between Kiala (with Muthama's support) and Wavinya Ndeti (with Kalonzo support). There is no room in between for Mutua. He is going home. Look at the votes from 2013 and disabuse yourself of the Pundit MOAS madness. If he applied it as he claims he should arrive at Oblivion as the final destination of Mutua. But I keep hearing - The ground has shifted because some Tumbocrat sold himself to Jubilee.

Ngilu joined Uhuru and went ahead to LOSE in her own backyard! If Ngilu can lose in Kitui how about better educated and more cosmopolitan Machakos? Ndeti too lost because of dalliance with Jubilee. Let us base our suppositions on facts not imaginary shifting grounds based on the size of Mutua's sycophancy.

[Nefertiti]

It is not NASA that wins, it is Jubilee that loses. There is a difference. Just as the ICC referendum -- this is a rerun. Uhuru does not have a Pentagon because of hubris. He thinks Kenyans are impressed by trains and highways while we see sacks of money disappear as people starve. The CS in charge of emergency service is his key campaigner

I am pessimistic about magic reforms under a NASA government, please forgive me. The reason I will vote out Uhuru is not so graft can disappear, no it won't, but to reset the board that is in Ruto's grip. Once his URP Trojan horse crumbles ala Raila's in 2002... Kenya will be ushered into a moment of hope again. The window of opportunity might just deal a blow to the tribal lineup nonsense. Leaders should be elected on performance and such a disruption would be a step in that direction.

I can see Mutua got you with his PR. The fight is between Kiala (with Muthama's support) and Wavinya Ndeti (with Kalonzo support). There is no room in between for Mutua. He is going home. Look at the votes from 2013 and disabuse yourself of the Pundit MOAS madness. If he applied it as he claims he should arrive at Oblivion as the final destination of Mutua. But I keep hearing - The ground has shifted because some Tumbocrat sold himself to Jubilee.

Ngilu joined Uhuru and went ahead to LOSE in her own backyard! If Ngilu can lose in Kitui how about better educated and more cosmopolitan Machakos? Ndeti too lost because of dalliance with Jubilee. Let us base our suppositions on facts not imaginary shifting grounds based on the size of Mutua's sycophancy.

[RV Pundit]

Ignoring the usual fitina which never turn out to be true - let me help you with Kajiado - Uhuru still wins - Narok - Raila loses (it's only the Purko who have issue with Tunai & UhuruRuto) while the rest cannot wait to stick to them. You should go for ODM and Jubilee nomination in Narok - and see how that cookie crumbled. Purko are split into two camps - CCM & ODM - and therefore both get nothing - leading to more and more anger . As for Kipsigis - you got jokes - let talk in 8.8 and you tell me how many votes Isaac would have won NASA - just about nothing.

Without ballot stuffing, its gonna be difficult for Jubilee to get anything close to the MPs it got in 2013.

The IEBC has tentatively been told by KPMG that there are 2.5 million Ghost Voters (the same figure Raila kept saying and being pilloried by the media and Pundit). There is the 100% registration in Kiambu, abnormal registration in Murang'a, Nakuru, Nyeri and Nyandarua. Pundit has surprisingly withheld his Normal Curves which he would be brandishing had it been any other issue.

What Pundit is saying is that Kalenjins and Kikuyus constitute 70% of Kenya. Because 200 MPs represent 70% of the 290 big parliament.

NASA will rain on their party in Narok. This time it will be a clean sweep of Narok and Kajiado. The war is in Bomet and that war will decide the fate of WSR in politics. Should Isaac expand his influence outside Bomet to Kericho (where unpopular Keter is facing serious setbacks) he would have broken the back of WSR in places and ways that cannot be mended. NASA needs 150K votes from him but so far my calculations suggest he has already gone beyond that cumulatively to close to 600K. There is a possibility of 1M depending on how many matusi's WSR will hurl.

[RV Pundit]

You don't just form pentagon - even if you don't need it. This election was already won by Jubilee. All they had to do is maintain their 51% coalition that won in 2013. If they have - and I don't see any reason to suggest they haven't - unless you believe Isaac Ruto is better than Gideon Moi in Amani, Henry Kosgey, Sally Kosgey, Franklin Bett, Margager, Prof Sally & so many other ODM folks who supported Raila -- then it's given Uhuru will win at worse the same percentage.

All Ruto need to convince Uhuru was to bring on board the battle ground leaders who will influence local votes - from Munyes up north in Turkana to Murvya down south in Kwale - Uhuru has BUFFER - on add to his 51% of 2013. Ruto has soften the ground in many areas that was anti-Uhuru (coasterian would shake in anger in 2013 after raila propaganda over land - now it nearly 50-50 down there - right from Taveta where Naomi shaban was for first time feeling the heat in nomination) -- all this has been due to Ruto's hard work for 4yrs - soften the ground in battle ground to give Uhuru the comfort zone he need to nick this - so he can forgo bringing in more players like MaDVD or Kalonzo - who just complicate Ruto's 2022 bid!

So yeah this election is about laying foundation for Ruto. Ruto has spawn several attempts to incorporate Mudavadi into Jubilee. He was coming to complicate issues. Wamalwa was allowed in before he had no issues deputizing Ruto. Anybody that basically has issues with Ruto is not going to go far in Jubilee. Earlier on Ruto worked hard to kick Kalonzo out of Jubilee pre-2013 - he too was just going to bring trouble to Jubilee - he is better out there being taken for a ride by Raila.

The formation of a strong party Jubilee by collapsing 14 parties and the need to ran a fair & credible nomination are all part of LAYING THE GROUND work for KANU like behemoth that will drive Ruto straight to statehouse. Come Sept you'll not even dare oppose a party with 200 out of 350 mps....that is without factoring many more who will be bough to join Jubilee post election.

So yeah you've read this late....this election is Ruto to lose. Ruto is just too meticulous to lose.

So we can proceed to talk 2012 - Ruto only major problem is how to herd GEMA (non-gema in Jubilee already owes him direct allegiance) - he has 4 arrows in his quicker - he has Jubilee party, he has Uhuru kenyatta, he literally has arrows facing 1m plus diaspora kikuyus in RV and he solid record as performer - to convince GEMA - and once that is done - it all the way to statehouse in 2022.

It is not NASA that wins, it is Jubilee that loses. There is a difference. Just as the ICC referendum -- this is a rerun. Uhuru does not have a Pentagon because of hubris. He thinks Kenyans are impressed by trains and highways while we see sacks of money disappear as people starve. The CS in charge of emergency service is his key campaigner

I am pessimistic about magic reforms under a NASA government, please forgive me. The reason I will vote out Uhuru is not so graft can disappear, no it won't, but to reset the board that is in Ruto's grip. Once his URP Trojan horse crumbles ala Raila's in 2002... Kenya will be ushered into a moment of hope again. The window of opportunity might just deal a blow to the tribal lineup nonsense. Leaders should be elected on performance and such a disruption would be a step in that direction.

[Omollo]

1. How has he lost in Turkana?
2. How has he lost in Kwale?

If I counted how many times you've been completely wrong; you'd rival Omollo. The recent one was PK - who got beaten like a luhya drum. The nonsense you wrote on that is all over here.

There is nothing like 50-50 split. Politics is dynamics so if there will be need to revise this - then I will revise the %.As of now - I am seeing Jubilee increase their 50.50% to 53% or more. We will crunch the numbers. Last time I had huge problems knowing how the Luhyas will flow - this time we know they will go Raila(NASA) - so make our work easier - add 4% to 44% (we can ignore the fact tha AMANI had wamalwa & gideon moi)- and you've Raila at max of 48% - now ran the numbers he has lost in battle ground counties from Turkana all the way to Kwale - and you'd be surprised it a lot - and so add 2% that Jubilee win thanks to incumbency - and remove 2% from Raila - and you'll get solid numbers - 53% versus 46% - with 1% going to others.