It depends on who leaves. If Mudavadi comes in at midnight and leaves just before dawn, means zero. He can't even take his family mongrel along with him.
If he becomes flagbearer I know Kalonzo will walk out.
When he came in KANU in 2002 we did a poll and advised that Moi gets someone from RV to deputize Uhuru or get Jirongo. Somehow they preferred the fellow. He likes being given things by people.
If NASA breaks its game over. Jubilee wins.
The worst Kalonzo can do is make a Lone Wolf Run. It would only damage Jubilee and lead to a runoff which would see even RV voting for opposition.
I'd worry more about kalonzo.I think rails will score well in luhya with or without raila. Madvd is fool who can easily fall anything