Kiambu Voter Figures

[Omollo]

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An issue has been raised about the Kiambu Voter figures. I got this elsewhere:

I'm not trying to challenge the wisdom and the right of the people of Kiambu county to list as voters in large numbers. It is always good to have as many people as possible registering to vote. But how does one explain this: In the 2009 census report, Kiambu posted 1,623,282 as its population, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, which carried out the census. Today, it has 1,373,594 registered voters. This means that the population of underage people in Kiambu is 249,688. It is not possible to have the number of adults in any geographical region surpassing that of children. A proper demographic study needs to be carried out in this special county.

It is a piece by Op Ed piece in The Star by Philip Etale

I cross checked the figures. Obviously he should have used the 2017 figures which place the Kiambu population at 2,032,464. Which would mean the 1,373,594 represent 68% of the population.

Nakuru with a population of 2,046,395 has 948,668 voters representing 46% of the population.
Kakamega has a population of 2,028,324 registered  746,877 voters (37%).

So Kiambu with almost the exact population size as kakamega registers 68% of its population. I wish I had figures for Baringo for the elections of 1992 and 97.

So what percentage of the population is under 18 (i.e. 17 - under).That would be 853,314 persons = 42% of the population.

I doubt the figure of voters posted by Etale. I instead,  rely on the IEBC figures, which says Registered Kiambu voters Total 1,177,594.

If I add the Under-Age Population (17 and Under) I get the total of 2,026,908. This does NOT include adult (18+) persons who did not register to vote.

The Projected Population of Kiambu for 2017 ( which has just started) is = 2,032,464. That means only 5556 persons are NOT registered in Kiambu. Yet I am aware however that the IEBC says a large number in Kiambu did not register.

Now I could be very wrong. So I need the expert analysis of Pundit.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Omollo,

I appreciate a lot your contributions.  I don't say that enough.  That said, because there seem to be many angles woven into this discussion, it is not clear what you are saying.  Just try going over what you wrote as if you are new to the whole issue.

What are the actual IEBC official figures in terms of total population, eligible population, registered population for Kiambu?

[Omollo]

Termie

The information you are asking for is here somewhere. I posted it. That said, I find the IEBC information misleading.

The Total Population of Kiambu is 2,032,464.
The number of registered voters is 1,173,594,

In other words those registered voters are theoretically 18 and above. That means anybody 17 and below is NOT a registered voter and therefore not part of the 1,177,594.

I subtracted this figure from the total population and got 858, 870. These represent the Population of Kiambu that is either Unregistered as Voters or under age.

Now to find how many are Unregistered, I had to subtract the total number of Underage Citizens of Kiambu. The information is thankfully available at the Kiambu County Government website.

That came to 853,314 persons.

Can you proceed from there?

Again I am saying I could have made huge blunders in my findings or the process.  I will gladly admit any such mistakes and apologize.

Note that according to the IEBC, there are still thousands of people to register in Kiambu.

I mentioned Nakuru and Kakamega for comparison. I did not go all the way in comparing. I just looked at the percentages.

It looks to me like the Kiambu % is too high for a area so close to Nairobi - a major urban area with a completely different voter outlook.

There are bound to be people who would simply not be bothered to register or vote. Rural populations tend to be different based on other variables like education. Such an exercise can total fail or succeed by 90% plus. For example a Chief or respected Community leader like an Imam could ask people to register and the y would all go.

What about the voters allegedly "imported" from Kiambu to vote in Nairobi?

Omollo,

I appreciate a lot your contributions.  I don't say that enough.  That said, because there seem to be many angles woven into this discussion, it is not clear what you are saying.  Just try going over what you wrote as if you are new to the whole issue.

What are the actual IEBC official figures in terms of total population, eligible population, registered population for Kiambu?

[Omollo]

According to the Kiambu County Government figures derived from The Kenya national Bureau of Statistics;

• The Total Population of Kiambu for 2017 is 2,032,464.
  
• The number of Registered Voters is 1,173,594 (IEBC),
  
• The Total Population of Underage Persons is 853,314 Persons - (Kiambu County Figures)
  
• That leaves 85,8870 Persons Unregistered.
  
• If 853,314 of them are Underage (Under 17 Years)
  
• Then there are only 5,556 Persons in Kiambu who have NOT registered to vote.
  
• The IEBC says there are still thousands of people in Kiambu eligible to vote but unregistered.

If out of a population of 2,032,464 persons we had 117,915,099 Persons Eligible to Register and 1,173,594 Persons actually registered then 99.5% Registered. How is that possible???

I stand to be corrected.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

According to the Kiambu County Government figures derived from The Kenya national Bureau of Statistics;

• The Total Population of Kiambu for 2017 is 2,032,464.
• The number of Registered Voters is 1,173,594 (IEBC),
• The Total Population of Underage Persons is 853,314 Persons - (Kiambu County Figures)
• That leaves 85,8870 Persons Unregistered.
• If 853,314 of them are Underage (Under 17 Years)
• Then there are only 5,556 Persons in Kiambu who have NOT registered to vote.
• The IEBC says there are still thousands of people in Kiambu eligible to vote but unregistered.

If out of a population of 2,032,464 persons we had 117,915,099 Persons Eligible to Register and 1,173,594 Persons actually registered then 99.5% Registered. How is that possible???

I stand to be corrected.

Does this number include those registered before for 2013?  If that is the case, you would have to subtract a few who died over that period to get actual living voters.  I don't know if IEBC takes that into account, but I doubt it(how would they know?).  We have to guess how many of those registered are now deceased from a death rate for Kiambu.   Still, it seems too high.

[Omollo]

IEBC released a document which I posted here. It is hard to read but it indicates the number of dead voters. The assumption is that all dead voters are removed.

On the other hand, I heard of no epidemics in Kiambu lately. There would have died over 270,000 people to bring those numbers within what can be called reasonable.

Yes, it includes those registered earlier.

The dead are subtracted by the IEBC for all areas.

Does this number include those registered before for 2013?  If that is the case, you would have to subtract a few who died over that period to get actual living voters.  I don't know if IEBC takes that into account, but I doubt it(how would they know?).  We have to guess how many of those registered are now deceased from a death rate for Kiambu.   Still, it seems too high.

[Kichwa]

There will always be dead voters in any voter roll in any country because people die all the time and there is no mechanism to remove them as soon as they die.  The problem is when dead voters actually vote.

IEBC released a document which I posted here. It is hard to read but it indicates the number of dead voters. The assumption is that all dead voters are removed.

On the other hand, I heard of no epidemics in Kiambu lately. There would have died over 270,000 people to bring those numbers within what can be called reasonable.

Yes, it includes those registered earlier.

The dead are subtracted by the IEBC for all areas.

Does this number include those registered before for 2013?  If that is the case, you would have to subtract a few who died over that period to get actual living voters.  I don't know if IEBC takes that into account, but I doubt it(how would they know?).  We have to guess how many of those registered are now deceased from a death rate for Kiambu.   Still, it seems too high.

[RV Pundit]

All deaths in kenya are reported by chiefs to the register of persons and that list should be available for IEBC to clean the register.

Let wait for IEBC to release the final figures after cleaning and auditing the registry.

And then we can proceed from there. Right now we've been bombarded with baseless CORD/NASA propaganda against IEBC.

[Omollo]

If your concern is dead voters for Kiambu, see the following document (scroll to the last page) . The population projections take into consideration the dead.

[pdf]https://www.iebc.or.ke/admin/uploads/resources/HaG0IkuoAS.pdf[/pdf]

I hope this answers your earlier questions:


We have a situation where 99.5% of a County's Adults are registered voters.

There will always be dead voters in any voter roll in any country because people die all the time and there is no mechanism to remove them as soon as they die.  The problem is when dead voters actually vote.

IEBC released a document which I posted here. It is hard to read but it indicates the number of dead voters. The assumption is that all dead voters are removed.

On the other hand, I heard of no epidemics in Kiambu lately. There would have died over 270,000 people to bring those numbers within what can be called reasonable.

Yes, it includes those registered earlier.

The dead are subtracted by the IEBC for all areas.

Does this number include those registered before for 2013?  If that is the case, you would have to subtract a few who died over that period to get actual living voters.  I don't know if IEBC takes that into account, but I doubt it(how would they know?).  We have to guess how many of those registered are now deceased from a death rate for Kiambu.   Still, it seems too high.

[Omollo]

If dead people is what it will take to bring about an expansive population pyramid for Kiambu, there would be need to explain whether there has been an epidemic of biblical proportions.
 

All deaths in kenya are reported by chiefs to the register of persons and that list should be available for IEBC to clean the register.

Let wait for IEBC to release the final figures after cleaning and auditing the registry.

And then we can proceed from there. Right now we've been bombarded with baseless CORD/NASA propaganda against IEBC.

[Kichwa]

...and kiambu will probably vote 95%.

If your concern is dead voters for Kiambu, see the following document (scroll to the last page) . The population projections take into consideration the dead.

[pdf]https://www.iebc.or.ke/admin/uploads/resources/HaG0IkuoAS.pdf[/pdf]

I hope this answers your earlier questions:


We have a situation where 99.5% of a County's Adults are registered voters.

There will always be dead voters in any voter roll in any country because people die all the time and there is no mechanism to remove them as soon as they die.  The problem is when dead voters actually vote.

IEBC released a document which I posted here. It is hard to read but it indicates the number of dead voters. The assumption is that all dead voters are removed.

On the other hand, I heard of no epidemics in Kiambu lately. There would have died over 270,000 people to bring those numbers within what can be called reasonable.

Yes, it includes those registered earlier.

The dead are subtracted by the IEBC for all areas.

Does this number include those registered before for 2013?  If that is the case, you would have to subtract a few who died over that period to get actual living voters.  I don't know if IEBC takes that into account, but I doubt it(how would they know?).  We have to guess how many of those registered are now deceased from a death rate for Kiambu.   Still, it seems too high.

[gout]

Kiambu is a Nairobi dormitory. A sizeable Western population being said not to have registered back home has registered in Kiambu. IEBC using 2009 census data for the voter registering projections was bound to have issues. 

[Omollo]

Why has it not occurred in Nairobi, Kajiado, Mombasa etc which have even larger "migrant" populations?

Kiambu is a Nairobi dormitory. A sizeable Western population being said not to have registered back home has registered in Kiambu. IEBC using 2009 census data for the voter registering projections was bound to have issues. 

[gout]

Kiambu is a peculiar case. Take the number of students in schools. What does such a figure really mean given Kiambu has quite a number of National & County schools drawing students from all over the country. Is the figure about children born and growing up in Kiambu who have gone to schools all over the country or does it mean those in schools in Kiambu County from all over the country?

Nairobi and Mombasa are 'mature' urban centres.

Kajiado overshot its IEBC projections at 240%!!

[Globalcitizen12]

Omollo,
My 4 properties in Kiambu have 40% people from outside Kiambu. Most of these renters will vote in Kiambu or relocate to shags if they can afford to. every farm I know has 55% employees from Nyanza and Western province .. That is why Raila gets 8% in Kiambu and not in Muranga so stop your propaganda

[Omollo]

When a census is carried out ALL those present are counted regardless of origin. Similarly, the iEBC bases its figures on the Kiambu population - which includes the migrant workers and other "outsiders" you allude to.

This is a uniform policy. I challenge you to produce figures of any other county (outside Central) which would give the same outcome. I have no knowledge of any county where Uhuru or Raila scored 0%. Raila getting 8% in Kiambu makes sense.

However 99.5% of the population registering to vote does not. There is country on earth where pre-registration is a requirement where you achieve that level of registration.
 

Omollo,
My 4 properties in Kiambu have 40% people from outside Kiambu. Most of these renters will vote in Kiambu or relocate to shags if they can afford to. every farm I know has 55% employees from Nyanza and Western province .. That is why Raila gets 8% in Kiambu and not in Muranga so stop your propaganda

[Omollo]

Pay attention to the age. Under 17. Technically society is obliged to provide education to "Children". In kenya they are defined as being under 18. Now they can't list under 18 for obvious reasons. So they list 17 and under.

I have no issues with IEBC projections.

Kiambu is a peculiar case. Take the number of students in schools. What does such a figure really mean given Kiambu has quite a number of National & County schools drawing students from all over the country. Is the figure about children born and growing up in Kiambu who have gone to schools all over the country or does it mean those in schools in Kiambu County from all over the country?

Nairobi and Mombasa are 'mature' urban centres.

Kajiado overshot its IEBC projections at 240%!!

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Basically what this thread is bringing up is how much should we trust the system?  I think there has to be a minimum level of trust, otherwise the next logical option is to forcefully change the system.

Still, 99.5% is pretty high.  I think you see those kinds of numbers in countries where people are required to vote by law.

[Omollo]

The key to ending electoral fraud will be found when there is a credible Population Register.

I have a feeling there is a deliberate attempt to curtail the use of ICT in government. For instance, the courts still rely on the so called "Finger Prints experts" at a time when every adult with an ID card has been fingerprinted. It would take a few minutes for any police station to find out the identity of any suspect whose finger prints are found at a murder scene.

We have a situation where the IEBC collects fingerprints but then releases a list of persons who have registered multiple times. In fact they are not based on fingerprints. They are based on ID cards - something Nkaissery "corrected" by now issuing unique ID numbers. Most of the Biometrics have been disabled in the IEBC database to allow for multiple registration.

Today NASA upped the ante by demanding answers to specific questions they sent to the IEBC. I am aware that Jubilee having suffered reverses over their control of the IEBC are unhappy with Chibukati and are planning "something". Jubilee would not let go of the IEBC without admitting defeat.

@IEBCKenya has refused to provide answers to questions regarding: stakeholder involvement, transparency & the voter register integrity. pic.twitter.com/hx0sfAFaHs

— Raila Odinga (@RailaOdinga) March 2, 2017

"We will not settle for anything less than free, fair and Credible Elections, we say no to Kangaroo Elections.." NASA Principals tell IEBC pic.twitter.com/IlW5l8vxGc

— Kenyan Report (@Kenyan_Report) March 2, 2017

Basically what this thread is bringing up is how much should we trust the system?  I think there has to be a minimum level of trust, otherwise the next logical option is to forcefully change the system.

Still, 99.5% is pretty high.  I think you see those kinds of numbers in countries where people are required to vote by law.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

The key to ending electoral fraud will be found when there is a credible Population Register.

I have a feeling there is a deliberate attempt to curtail the use of ICT in government. For instance, the courts still rely on the so called "Finger Prints experts" at a time when every adult with an ID card has been fingerprinted. It would take a few minutes for any police station to find out the identity of any suspect whose finger prints are found at a murder scene.

We have a situation where the IEBC collects fingerprints but then releases a list of persons who have registered multiple times. In fact they are not based on fingerprints. They are based on ID cards - something Nkaissery "corrected" by now issuing unique ID numbers. Most of the Biometrics have been disabled in the IEBC database to allow for multiple registration.

Today NASA upped the ante by demanding answers to specific questions they sent to the IEBC. I am aware that Jubilee having suffered reverses over their control of the IEBC are unhappy with Chibukati and are planning "something". Jubilee would not let go of the IEBC without admitting defeat.

Basically what this thread is bringing up is how much should we trust the system?  I think there has to be a minimum level of trust, otherwise the next logical option is to forcefully change the system.

Still, 99.5% is pretty high.  I think you see those kinds of numbers in countries where people are required to vote by law.

They can find those fingerprints in minutes.  I remember Yebei's body double fingerprints were found almost immediately his body was discovered.  Obviously there is a problem with embracing technology in government in a meaningful way beyond the empty digital mantra.  Hard to know if it's incompetence or deliberate - neither can be ruled out with confidence.  More importantly, I think it is at best useless for purposes of 2017.  People have to prepare for the election like there is none of that digital stuff.