Donald Trump, Tariffs and Mexico

[Omollo]

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Economists come here.

I need a little education on Trump's declared protectionist policies. He plans to impose tariffs on Mexican imports. How will that work? Mexico says it will simply retaliate against American goods. That sounds like a trade war.

Will DJT take on China as well? Could he pull off such a trick against two of the leading trading partners and win?

[Kadudu]

The Donald talks and tweets too much. He should know he is now POTUS and not in class one.

[RV Pundit]

Nobody knows for sure how this donald experiment will turn out;

[Omollo]

Nobody knows for sure how this donald experiment will turn out;

Mexico says she will retaliate with a similar tax should US impose one. Experts cite the NAFTA treaty which bans such tariffs. They also reportedly say most of Mexico's exports are actually products of American companies that ran away from high labor costs in the US.

So assuming US imposes a tax on Mexican goods, the cost is transferred to Trump's voters.

I am waiting to hear what he will do about China. How much in USD bonds does China hold as of today? Does anybody have any figures? What happens if China announces the re-sale of the same?

But I guess they won't  do that because the dollar might sink and undermine the Chinese exports.

[RV Pundit]

With or without protection; Us share of global economy is going to shrink further; I think right now it down to 15-17% from highs of 25-30% recently; so China and Mexico should simply look elsewhere; there is enough market for everyone.

What excite me about Donald Trump is that fact that he has no interest for anything outside the USA. Let him stay insular like North Korean hermitic regime. The world will breathe a sign of relief when yankees are not out there playing policy experiment (from "think tanks") on the world. Time they spent time fixing their messed up country - with horribly expensive health care & education system - institutionalized racism & apartheid mostly against black & brown people -with majority either on jail or food stamps or with debilitating criminal record - and of course huge mountain of private/public debt - yankees are likely to retire before they pay off college debt.

US has enough internal problems to keep them busy for 30yrs. Countries like those Northern Europe or Japan or South Korea - can go round lecturing the world and showing them how it can be done - coz they fewer problems.

After completing mexico wall he can go ahead and wall the pacific/altantic & canada border - and even close intl airports - I couldn't careless.Most US president have tended to think their job basically was foreign policy - Trump is a break - his policy and focus is domestic. For that reason I remain hopefully all with turn out well.

Chinese influence over the last few years has been overwhelmingly positive and as US retreats to fix it's domez - we should be ready for China & Russia stepping up to fill the void.

Mexico says she will retaliate with a similar tax should US impose one. Experts cite the NAFTA treaty which bans such tariffs. They also reportedly say most of Mexico's exports are actually products of American companies that ran away from high labor costs in the US.

So assuming US imposes a tax on Mexican goods, the cost is transferred to Trump's voters.

I am waiting to hear what he will do about China. How much in USD bonds does China hold as of today? Does anybody have any figures? What happens if China announces the re-sale of the same?

But I guess they won't  do that because the dollar might sink and undermine the Chinese exports.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Another recession to be fixed in four years by another Democrat.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

With or without protection; Us share of global economy is going to shrink further; I think right now it down to 15-17% from highs of 25-30% recently; so China and Mexico should simply look elsewhere; there is enough market for everyone.

What excite me about Donald Trump is that fact that he has no interest for anything outside the USA. Let him stay insular like North Korean hermitic regime. The world will breathe a sign of relief when yankees are not out there playing policy experiment (from "think tanks") on the world. Time they spent time fixing their messed up country - with horribly expensive health care & education system - institutionalized racism & apartheid mostly against black & brown people -with majority either on jail or food stamps or with debilitating criminal record - and of course huge mountain of private/public debt - yankees are likely to retire before they pay off college debt.

US has enough internal problems to keep them busy for 30yrs. Countries like those Northern Europe or Japan or South Korea - can go round lecturing the world and showing them how it can be done - coz they fewer problems.

After completing mexico wall he can go ahead and wall the pacific/altantic & canada border - and even close intl airports - I couldn't careless.Most US president have tended to think their job basically was foreign policy - Trump is a break - his policy and focus is domestic. For that reason I remain hopefully all with turn out well.

Chinese influence over the last few years has been overwhelmingly positive and as US retreats to fix it's domez - we should be ready for China & Russia stepping up to fill the void.

Mexico says she will retaliate with a similar tax should US impose one. Experts cite the NAFTA treaty which bans such tariffs. They also reportedly say most of Mexico's exports are actually products of American companies that ran away from high labor costs in the US.

So assuming US imposes a tax on Mexican goods, the cost is transferred to Trump's voters.

I am waiting to hear what he will do about China. How much in USD bonds does China hold as of today? Does anybody have any figures? What happens if China announces the re-sale of the same?

But I guess they won't  do that because the dollar might sink and undermine the Chinese exports.

While he has no interest with anything outside Trump, he is the whole world's problem as the Mexico drama clearly shows.  What was once a campaign issue restricted to America is now going global.  He has one solution for everything...his way or the highway.  Putin might have enough on him to use him as he wishes.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Mexico says she will retaliate with a similar tax should US impose one. Experts cite the NAFTA treaty which bans such tariffs. They also reportedly say most of Mexico's exports are actually products of American companies that ran away from high labor costs in the US.

So assuming US imposes a tax on Mexican goods, the cost is transferred to Trump's voters.

I am waiting to hear what he will do about China. How much in USD bonds does China hold as of today? Does anybody have any figures? What happens if China announces the re-sale of the same?

But I guess they won't  do that because the dollar might sink and undermine the Chinese exports.

With China the likely flash points are Taiwan and South China sea.  His logic of course is to wave a big military stick.  Trump is clinically insane.  But we have known this for over a year now.

[Georgesoros]

With this, I agree with you. USA has trade deficits with most of Africa, so should they allso impose the same things Trump is doing?
US companies build China to where it is now, with Bill Clintons blessing. The problem is they overdid it and now they are pulling back. But China is in a more powerful position all over the world and USA pulling back only strenghtens their resolve.

With or without protection; Us share of global economy is going to shrink further; I think right now it down to 15-17% from highs of 25-30% recently; so China and Mexico should simply look elsewhere; there is enough market for everyone.

What excite me about Donald Trump is that fact that he has no interest for anything outside the USA. Let him stay insular like North Korean hermitic regime. The world will breathe a sign of relief when yankees are not out there playing policy experiment (from "think tanks") on the world. Time they spent time fixing their messed up country - with horribly expensive health care & education system - institutionalized racism & apartheid mostly against black & brown people -with majority either on jail or food stamps or with debilitating criminal record - and of course huge mountain of private/public debt - yankees are likely to retire before they pay off college debt.

US has enough internal problems to keep them busy for 30yrs. Countries like those Northern Europe or Japan or South Korea - can go round lecturing the world and showing them how it can be done - coz they fewer problems.

After completing mexico wall he can go ahead and wall the pacific/altantic & canada border - and even close intl airports - I couldn't careless.Most US president have tended to think their job basically was foreign policy - Trump is a break - his policy and focus is domestic. For that reason I remain hopefully all with turn out well.

Chinese influence over the last few years has been overwhelmingly positive and as US retreats to fix it's domez - we should be ready for China & Russia stepping up to fill the void.

Mexico says she will retaliate with a similar tax should US impose one. Experts cite the NAFTA treaty which bans such tariffs. They also reportedly say most of Mexico's exports are actually products of American companies that ran away from high labor costs in the US.

So assuming US imposes a tax on Mexican goods, the cost is transferred to Trump's voters.

I am waiting to hear what he will do about China. How much in USD bonds does China hold as of today? Does anybody have any figures? What happens if China announces the re-sale of the same?

But I guess they won't  do that because the dollar might sink and undermine the Chinese exports.

[Georgesoros]

There seems to be no concerted efforts to anylyze these goon's ideas. Democrats have been quiet instead of being the loudest.
Retreating from the world scene only weakens USA.

Mexico says she will retaliate with a similar tax should US impose one. Experts cite the NAFTA treaty which bans such tariffs. They also reportedly say most of Mexico's exports are actually products of American companies that ran away from high labor costs in the US.

So assuming US imposes a tax on Mexican goods, the cost is transferred to Trump's voters.

I am waiting to hear what he will do about China. How much in USD bonds does China hold as of today? Does anybody have any figures? What happens if China announces the re-sale of the same?

But I guess they won't  do that because the dollar might sink and undermine the Chinese exports.

With China the likely flash points are Taiwan and South China sea.  His logic of course is to wave a big military stick.  Trump is clinically insane.  But we have known this for over a year now.

[RV Pundit]

My biggest beef with Obama and previous US regime is starting wars - from vietnam to middle east now. Until Trump does that..he is in my good books. I really don't care if he goes protect local US industry or tighten immigration - all that - is all good - but unilaterally starting wars or overthrowing foreign governments - would be bad. That is when he cross my line.

I think what China and Putin have done recently is worth emulating. China esp has been commendable. Putin seem to also understand what works in Middle East than US wobbling policy experiments.

Yeah there are sign he is insane - some crazy ideas so far include- US embassy in Jerusalem and opening torture chambers all over the world - would point at insanity.  Trying to provoke 1B crazy muslim for some 5M isrealis is not a smart move.

While he has no interest with anything outside Trump, he is the whole world's problem as the Mexico drama clearly shows.  What was once a campaign issue restricted to America is now going global.  He has one solution for everything...his way or the highway.  Putin might have enough on him to use him as he wishes.

[RV Pundit]

Every country has the right to do whatever they wish within their borders. It not illegal to ban import or exports or build walls. Yesterday I was coming from Ug - and I was told - all maize export from Kenya are banned. US should do whatever they think is right for their country...but when it comes to some issues...then best to default to say the UN.

Let hope Trump will confine his madness to US - and we will live happly thereafter.

With this, I agree with you. USA has trade deficits with most of Africa, so should they allso impose the same things Trump is doing?
US companies build China to where it is now, with Bill Clintons blessing. The problem is they overdid it and now they are pulling back. But China is in a more powerful position all over the world and USA pulling back only strenghtens their resolve.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

There seems to be no concerted efforts to anylyze these goon's ideas. Democrats have been quiet instead of being the loudest.
Retreating from the world scene only weakens USA.

Mexico says she will retaliate with a similar tax should US impose one. Experts cite the NAFTA treaty which bans such tariffs. They also reportedly say most of Mexico's exports are actually products of American companies that ran away from high labor costs in the US.

So assuming US imposes a tax on Mexican goods, the cost is transferred to Trump's voters.

I am waiting to hear what he will do about China. How much in USD bonds does China hold as of today? Does anybody have any figures? What happens if China announces the re-sale of the same?

But I guess they won't  do that because the dollar might sink and undermine the Chinese exports.

With China the likely flash points are Taiwan and South China sea.  His logic of course is to wave a big military stick.  Trump is clinically insane.  But we have known this for over a year now.

The US crossed the Rubicon by electing a black man.  To the Republicans, this was the red line.  Worse than electing a lunatic.  They figure if Dems could do this, they have no moral standing to lecture them on expected behavior.  Trump will do what he wants, as long as they get their agenda going - cutting taxes for the very wealthy, gutting social programs and generally being assholes to those less fortunate or different than them.  It's an unfortunate fact that American history has been uniquely shaped by racism.

Dems have all along assumed they are dealing with sensible people only different views.  That might be changing from the grassroots.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Every country has the right to do whatever they wish within their borders. It not illegal to ban import or exports or build walls. Yesterday I was coming from Ug - and I was told - all maize export from Kenya are banned. US should do whatever they think is right for their country...but when it comes to some issues...then best to default to say the UN.

Let hope Trump will confine his madness to US - and we will live happly thereafter.

With this, I agree with you. USA has trade deficits with most of Africa, so should they allso impose the same things Trump is doing?
US companies build China to where it is now, with Bill Clintons blessing. The problem is they overdid it and now they are pulling back. But China is in a more powerful position all over the world and USA pulling back only strenghtens their resolve.

He can't confine it.  Some dude in another country might annoy him with a tweet.  Republicans, at least this current incarnation, have a messed up view of how the world ought to operate.  They internalize the notion that America should never have to obey international law.  If they have their way, the UN could be no more leaving the world to operate on the rules of pre-1940s.  They share that view with Trump.  But they differ on free trade. 

Apart from the Arab spring which I blame him for, Obama generally related more normally with the rest of the world.

[Kadudu]

Which war did Obama start?
Btw, do you think the Chinese are any better than the Americans? All the South Asians countries are deep scared of a mighty China. They would rather have the US presence to counter the Chinese aggression. Having one too powerful force in the world is not good. As of Russia, forget. Produces nothing worth the mention.

My biggest beef with Obama and previous US regime is starting wars - from vietnam to middle east now. Until Trump does that..he is in my good books. I really don't care if he goes protect local US industry or tighten immigration - all that - is all good - but unilaterally starting wars or overthrowing foreign governments - would be bad. That is when he cross my line.

I think what China and Putin have done recently is worth emulating. China esp has been commendable. Putin seem to also understand what works in Middle East than US wobbling policy experiments.

Yeah there are sign he is insane - some crazy ideas so far include- US embassy in Jerusalem and opening torture chambers all over the world - would point at insanity.  Trying to provoke 1B crazy muslim for some 5M isrealis is not a smart move.

[Globalcitizen12]

USA need cheap labor to keep manufacturing the rest is hog wash..will AGOA BE renegotiated too

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Which war did Obama start?
Btw, do you think the Chinese are any better than the Americans? All the South Asians countries are deep scared of a mighty China. They would rather have the US presence to counter the Chinese aggression. Having one too powerful force in the world is not good. As of Russia, forget. Produces nothing worth the mention.

My biggest beef with Obama and previous US regime is starting wars - from vietnam to middle east now. Until Trump does that..he is in my good books. I really don't care if he goes protect local US industry or tighten immigration - all that - is all good - but unilaterally starting wars or overthrowing foreign governments - would be bad. That is when he cross my line.

I think what China and Putin have done recently is worth emulating. China esp has been commendable. Putin seem to also understand what works in Middle East than US wobbling policy experiments.

Yeah there are sign he is insane - some crazy ideas so far include- US embassy in Jerusalem and opening torture chambers all over the world - would point at insanity.  Trying to provoke 1B crazy muslim for some 5M isrealis is not a smart move.

Russia is desperate but I think they have Trump by his dick.  He will do what is in Putin's interests - that seems to be the only predictable thing about him thus far.  Everywhere else, you have to look at how anything affects his sense of importance to make anything approaching a projection.

[veritas]

Economists come here.

I need a little education on Trump's declared protectionist policies. He plans to impose tariffs on Mexican imports. How will that work? Mexico says it will simply retaliate against American goods. That sounds like a trade war.

Will DJT take on China as well? Could he pull off such a trick against two of the leading trading partners and win?

This isn't a new concept.

It doesn't work. 20% isn't a safe trade deal. It's not just a case of imposing those costs on Americans. There are other insurance type policies and conditions that won't safe guard for such a price hike.

In cases where dictators have imposed high tariffs on foreign imports, investors just leave that country and take the business elsewhere. Zimbabwe is an example of tariffs whenever that dictator felt like kicking out foreigners but economically it doesn't work: http://www.chronicle.co.zw/zesa-tariffs-hike-panic-business-warns-of-imminent-closure/

Mexico can just take their business elsewhere like China or Russia. Maybe it's for the best. Americans are too entitled anyway. Poverty might be the solution to make America great again.

[Empedocles]

Economists come here.

I need a little education on Trump's declared protectionist policies. He plans to impose tariffs on Mexican imports. How will that work? Mexico says it will simply retaliate against American goods. That sounds like a trade war.

Will DJT take on China as well? Could he pull off such a trick against two of the leading trading partners and win?

This isn't a new concept.

It doesn't work. 20% isn't a safe trade deal. It's not just a case of imposing those costs on Americans. There are other insurance type policies and conditions that won't safe guard for such a price hike.

In cases where dictators have imposed high tariffs on foreign imports, investors just leave that country and take the business elsewhere. Zimbabwe is an example of tariffs whenever that dictator felt like kicking out foreigners but economically it doesn't work: http://www.chronicle.co.zw/zesa-tariffs-hike-panic-business-warns-of-imminent-closure/

Mexico can just take their business elsewhere like China or Russia. Maybe it's for the best. Americans are too entitled anyway. Poverty might be the solution to make America great again.

Trump is an idiot trying to run the US like a his own company which stiffs other companies (Contractor Says Trump Refusing to Pay for Work at DC Hotel). For someone who gets his alternative facts from Fox News, he's living in his own alternate reality (this is the idiot who proudly admits he gets his military information from watching "shows" on cable TV and is too smart to read the daily security briefings.).

The consequences of a tariff  fight with Mexico over the payment of the wall is going to reverse the immigration problem which has been declining since the tanking of the Peso in the mid-90s. Like, what happens if the Mexican economy tanks again, due to many companies in Mexico shutting down and moving back to the US to avoid the 20% tariff (plus add the massive differences in hourly wages between Mexican and US employees)? The jobless rate is going to start climbing faster leading to more Mexicans crossing over the border into the US of A looking for work in the same companies which left Mexico, which will be relying very heavily on advanced technology to cut labor costs to the bone.

Trump will not win this war. But then again, Trump and his flag-waving America First Fox-addicted supporters want to continue (falsely) believing it's the illegal aliens who are responsible for the decline of the American middle class (it isn't and it ain't coming back. Period.).

The concept of a large, affluent middle class is the cornerstone of the American dream. A dream in which anyone with a high school diploma and hard work could easily afford a nice house in the suburbs and 2 cars. Americans assume that this is the way the universe should work. That Americans have the "God given right" to the American dream. However, this reality of a wealthy and prosperous middle class is not the natural state of things, but a by product of a very unique set of historical circumstances, specifically, the end of World war II.

At the end of the Second World war, the US was the only major industrial power left with its industry and infrastructure unscathed. This gave the US a dramatic economic advantage over the rest of the world, as all other nations had to buy pretty much all the manufactured goods they needed from the US, and use their cheap natural resources as form of payment As a consequence, the American owners of the capital and means of production had to rely heavily on the American relatively small (on a Global scale) and highly skilled work force, since they had no one else to hire to men the factories. This gave the working class a lot of leverage to claim for itself a decent share of the high profits the American industrial complex in the post world war II world. This allowed for the phenomenal growth of the US middle class we saw in the 50s and 60s. A growth so incredible, that while the US middle class made up less than 5% of the world's population, it consumed 1/3 of its resources.

However, over time, the other industrial powers in Europe and Asia rebuild themselves and started to compete with the US. Not only that, but countries like Brazil, South Africa, Argentina, India, China, Mexico, Thailand, Turkey, South Korea, Vietnam and more also became industrialized. This meant that they were no longer selling their natural resources cheaply in exchange for US made industrial goods. Quite the contrary, they themselves started to bid against the US for natural resources to fuel their own industries. And more importantly, the US work force was no longer was the only one qualified to work on modern factories and to have proficiency over modern industrial processes. This meant that the US middle class could no longer easily outbid pretty much everyone else for natural resources, and the owners of the capital and means of production no longer dependent solely on this small and highly skilled work force. Many other countries now had an industrial base that rivals or surpasses that of the US, and a qualified work force to operate modern factories, if US companies chose to move productions out of the US. This meant that they also had their own middle classes that was able to bid against the US middle class for those limited global resources. And more importantly, manufacturers now can engage in global wage arbitrage, by moving production to a country with cheaper labor.

And the consequences of this global wage arbitrage? A dramatic, unprecedented and unimaginable drop in world poverty. Where once the American middle class was so wealthy that it voraciously consumed 1/3 of the world resources, that wealth has been redistributed around the world, thanks to globalization. This means that We are going back to the normal, where the US middle class is not that different from the middle classes from the rest of the world. The US middle class will get poorer, while the rest of the world will leave poverty and abject poverty and join a new, more modest middle class. And both the poorer US middle class and the emerging global middle class will meet at some middle ground. It is a "return to the mean" and that cannot be changed. ? This is where the decline of the US middle class is coming from. There are no political solutions for it. It is the way it is. Any politician who claims to be able to restore "the good old days" is lying.

Source

[veritas]

that's what they're selling to the public but i think the underbelly is just pure right wing. putting up tariffs and protectionist policies is typically far right. it won't work in america because the conditions in america aren't totalitarian. trump doesn't have the village to support his policies. states function autonomously but if he pushes too much, it'll lead to secession elections.

mexico isn't going to pay for the wall. for gimmicks like that, incoming presidents are expected to pay for that using their own pockets. like the time president lee in south korea promised a large river in seoul and he paid for that with his own pocket. the more trump pushes for sh!t like that, the more it'll isolate america from trade partners, researchers, tourism, every sector really. i mean the only thing i see happening for america under trump is poverty (he won't have the labor and investors to fund vast infrastructure projects), nuclear war, anarchy and secessions.