IEBC Cannot Explain 2013 Results

[Omollo]

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I know there are those who insist that the b2013 election was clean and that this one will be even cleaner without the changes CORD is demanding. So I will be posting some things that I hope those people (who insist Uhuru won) will try to explain.

Here are results for Kitui. Notice the similarities between Kitui West and Mwingi West.

Termie is there a natural explanation for that?

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Omollo,

I am not convinced 2013 was clean.  There were too many things, most I can't recall because of passage of time, that didn't add up.  But the key was not the electronic system, but rather the avoidance of it at key points.  Biometric verification died on the spot and we were left with an election no different from 2007 catching CORD unprepared logistically for a manual election.

The important thing to learn for CORD, having wasted 3 to 4 years, before bringing these issues up, is that the electronic system is not ready for 2017.  In other words, they should prepare for a manual election with all the necessary logistics that they did not have in place in 2013.  Ensure an agent at every count at polling station level recording on video(cell phones, camcorders and what have you) for instance.  In fact given the state of the election system, CORD should insist on and prepare for a purely manual election in 2017.

[Omollo]

Termie

Once an election goes to court it means you have lost. We shall not be going to court. I hope Uhuru has got it clearly.

Omollo,

I am not convinced 2013 was clean.  There were too many things, most I can't recall because of passage of time, that didn't add up.  But the key was not the electronic system, but rather the avoidance of it at key points.  Biometric verification died on the spot and we were left with an election no different from 2007 catching CORD unprepared logistically for a manual election.

The important thing to learn for CORD, having wasted 3 to 4 years, before bringing these issues up, is that the electronic system is not ready for 2017.  In other words, they should prepare for a manual election with all the necessary logistics that they did not have in place in 2013.  Ensure an agent at every count at polling station level recording on video(cell phones, camcorders and what have you) for instance.  In fact given the state of the election system, CORD should insist on and prepare for a purely manual election in 2017.

[Omollo]

Now this Termie:

5000 out of 6000 people who enrolled in NYS are shocked to find their details already registered as voter by @IEBCKenya #VoterCardScandal

— Hon Lee Makwiny (@leemakwiny) January 23, 2017

[Omollo]

I have not heard of ID duplication in Ukambani,Nyanza or Coast . The cases are only in central and Rift Valley @IEBCKenya #VoterCardScandal

— Rein (@Asamoh_) January 23, 2017

[Omollo]

What makes the ID duplication suspect is that it's rampant in Central Kenya and Rift Valley which are Jubilee strongholds #VoterCardScandal

— nyandiga (@nyandiga001) January 23, 2017

[Omollo]

a friend of mine is also a victim of these sharing IDs menace. 'coincidentally' he shares the ID with a wairimu #VoterCardScandal

— HEMEDI MOHA® (@HemediMoha) January 23, 2017

[Omollo]

Just have a look at this crap. He says that no legitimately registered voter will be turned away.

So Omollo goes to the polling station at 11 am and finds that somebody with his details has already voted. How then does he vote?

Now if Omollo is allowed alongside ten other people sharing his ID card, then how credible is the election?

[Omollo]

Who can explain this:

[MOON Ki]

The important thing to learn for CORD, having wasted 3 to 4 years, before bringing these issues up, is that the electronic system is not ready for 2017.  In other words, they should prepare for a manual election with all the necessary logistics that they did not have in place in 2013.  Ensure an agent at every count at polling station level recording on video(cell phones, camcorders and what have you) for instance.  In fact given the state of the election system, CORD should insist on and prepare for a purely manual election in 2017.

Exactly.

[Omollo]

MoonKi and Termie

I still don't understand your reasoning. CORD has done nothing but seek a free and fair election since the 2013 elections.

1. The Supreme Court ruled that Hassan and the IEBC be investigated and sanctioned. Uhuru had a simple way of delaying the investigations: He started the long process of disabling the EACC along with other delaying tactics.
2. Wafula Buke filed a petition for the removal of the IEBC. Jubilee used its numbers to frustrate the petition

3. CORD supported the Petition by Buke and in fact withheld its own petition as drawn by Anyang Nyong'o
4. CORD met the IEBC and filed specific demands. This was to rule out any possibility of arguing that CORD had not tried to meet the IEBC. No results


Another link: CORD meets Hassan, wants IEBC to prove it can hold fair polls

5. When dialogue failed and Hassan and Jubilee resorted to arrogance including vowing that the IEBC will stay put CORD launched OKOA Kenya with a view of getting a popular removal of IEBC and securing a free and fair election. The IEBC blatantly rigged the process and caused the plebiscite to fail before a vote.
6. CORD having realized that the IEBC as constituted was incorrigible made the decision to get rid of it in one swoop through street demonstrations. Your views on the demos are forever preserved here and multiple search engines
7. CORD opted for structural changes to ensure that it mattered not who was heading the IEBC. Many asked what it is we had achieved when Uhuru was to name the Commissioners
8. Uhuru gets advice from Ndung'u, Abdi Kadir, Njee Muturi and Issack Hassan about the implications of the changes. He scuttles some of the changes in parliament.

I have given a survey of what CORD has done since 2014 to date. I have left out many small details but picked the key moments.

So would you stop this monotonous refrain: What has CORD done the last 4 years.

Note that free and fair elections are the responsibility of all Kenyans as dictated by the constitution which states:

3. (1) Every person has an obligation to respect, uphold and defend this Constitution.

Exactly.

The important thing to learn for CORD, having wasted 3 to 4 years, before bringing these issues up, is that the electronic system is not ready for 2017.  In other words, they should prepare for a manual election with all the necessary logistics that they did not have in place in 2013.  Ensure an agent at every count at polling station level recording on video(cell phones, camcorders and what have you) for instance.  In fact given the state of the election system, CORD should insist on and prepare for a purely manual election in 2017.

[RV Pundit]

If you ethnic maths don't add up; you'll lose; our election do not need iebc; you just need a piece of paper and pen - basic knowledge of our tribal terrain - and you're good to go. I don't see how combined opposition expect to beat Jubilee.

[RV Pundit]

Two things..1) nature of demographic - central as you can see from number of household - have more adults than western - less kids per household  - western has more children than adults - 2) Someone has to go and register - maybe many in western are not bothered.Basically use the number of household - as good indicator of number of adults in each province- assume each household will have two adults - the man & the wife. Kenyans pretty much marry at 21 yrs on average...so few linger longer in their parents household.

Central & nairobi are enjoying demographic transition - but as time goes by - and as more in other areas become adult - the ethnic maths will change drastically. RV for instance has 10m people..but only 2m household - the more they age - the more votes you expect.

Who can explain this:

[Omollo]

Pundit

This has nothing to do with:

1. Underage persons being issued with ID cards in Central while Western, North Eastern and Nyanza youth are ignored or doubted? People in Busia and Bungoma being treated as Ugandans while those in NEP treated as Somalians?
2. This has nothing to do with historically inflated population figures that started with Kenyatta, tamed but not eliminated under Moi and resumed Under Kibaki and got worse under Uhuru? Why did the voter numbers in Central double after 2002 but DECREASE in 2013?
3. The Voter register not being properly cleaned in 2013 and being further contaminated by the NIS working with the outgoing commissioners under Isaack Hassan?

Pundit we have a Nigerian situation where the truth about how many people are in Kenya has not been established. It follows that there are strong vested interests that do not wish to see that happen. When a census showed a decline in Luo population (which I still doubt) there was jubilation is some quarters and anger in others. Kibaki tried to suppress the Somali population which is at 2 million.

Only Raila will settle the population figures problem.

[RV Pundit]

I give up.

Pundit

This has nothing to do with:

1. Underage persons being issued with ID cards in Central while Western, North Eastern and Nyanza youth are ignored or doubted? People in Busia and Bungoma being treated as Ugandans while those in NEP treated as Somalians?
2. This has nothing to do with historically inflated population figures that started with Kenyatta, tamed but not eliminated under Moi and resumed Under Kibaki and got worse under Uhuru? Why did the voter numbers in Central double after 2002 but DECREASE in 2013?
3. The Voter register not being properly cleaned in 2013 and being further contaminated by the NIS working with the outgoing commissioners under Isaack Hassan?

Pundit we have a Nigerian situation where the truth about how many people are in Kenya has not been established. It follows that there are strong vested interests that do not wish to see that happen. When a census showed a decline in Luo population (which I still doubt) there was jubilation is some quarters and anger in others. Kibaki tried to suppress the Somali population which is at 2 million.

Only Raila will settle the population figures problem.

[Omollo]

[Pajero]

Looks like jubilee are hell bent on rigging 2017 elections come whatever may.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Now this Termie:

5000 out of 6000 people who enrolled in NYS are shocked to find their details already registered as voter by @IEBCKenya #VoterCardScandal

— Hon Lee Makwiny (@leemakwiny) January 23, 2017

Like I mention earlier, the system is not ready for 2017.  If we insist on relying on it, even while acknowledging it's crappy, it will just end in tears.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

MoonKi and Termie

I still don't understand your reasoning. CORD has done nothing but seek a free and fair election since the 2013 elections.

1. The Supreme Court ruled that Hassan and the IEBC be investigated and sanctioned. Uhuru had a simple way of delaying the investigations: He started the long process of disabling the EACC along with other delaying tactics.
2. Wafula Buke filed a petition for the removal of the IEBC. Jubilee used its numbers to frustrate the petition

3. CORD supported the Petition by Buke and in fact withheld its own petition as drawn by Anyang Nyong'o
4. CORD met the IEBC and filed specific demands. This was to rule out any possibility of arguing that CORD had not tried to meet the IEBC. No results


Another link: CORD meets Hassan, wants IEBC to prove it can hold fair polls

5. When dialogue failed and Hassan and Jubilee resorted to arrogance including vowing that the IEBC will stay put CORD launched OKOA Kenya with a view of getting a popular removal of IEBC and securing a free and fair election. The IEBC blatantly rigged the process and caused the plebiscite to fail before a vote.
6. CORD having realized that the IEBC as constituted was incorrigible made the decision to get rid of it in one swoop through street demonstrations. Your views on the demos are forever preserved here and multiple search engines
7. CORD opted for structural changes to ensure that it mattered not who was heading the IEBC. Many asked what it is we had achieved when Uhuru was to name the Commissioners
8. Uhuru gets advice from Ndung'u, Abdi Kadir, Njee Muturi and Issack Hassan about the implications of the changes. He scuttles some of the changes in parliament.

I have given a survey of what CORD has done since 2014 to date. I have left out many small details but picked the key moments.

So would you stop this monotonous refrain: What has CORD done the last 4 years.

Note that free and fair elections are the responsibility of all Kenyans as dictated by the constitution which states:

3. (1) Every person has an obligation to respect, uphold and defend this Constitution.

Exactly.

The important thing to learn for CORD, having wasted 3 to 4 years, before bringing these issues up, is that the electronic system is not ready for 2017.  In other words, they should prepare for a manual election with all the necessary logistics that they did not have in place in 2013.  Ensure an agent at every count at polling station level recording on video(cell phones, camcorders and what have you) for instance.  In fact given the state of the election system, CORD should insist on and prepare for a purely manual election in 2017.

I don't recall any campaign to fix the electronic system whose obvious flaws were readily apparent in 2013, if not earlier.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Pundit

This has nothing to do with:

1. Underage persons being issued with ID cards in Central while Western, North Eastern and Nyanza youth are ignored or doubted? People in Busia and Bungoma being treated as Ugandans while those in NEP treated as Somalians?
2. This has nothing to do with historically inflated population figures that started with Kenyatta, tamed but not eliminated under Moi and resumed Under Kibaki and got worse under Uhuru? Why did the voter numbers in Central double after 2002 but DECREASE in 2013?
3. The Voter register not being properly cleaned in 2013 and being further contaminated by the NIS working with the outgoing commissioners under Isaack Hassan?

Pundit we have a Nigerian situation where the truth about how many people are in Kenya has not been established. It follows that there are strong vested interests that do not wish to see that happen. When a census showed a decline in Luo population (which I still doubt) there was jubilation is some quarters and anger in others. Kibaki tried to suppress the Somali population which is at 2 million.

Only Raila will settle the population figures problem.

That is also a possibility.  A counter-argument could be made that Ugandans are boosting Western numbers.   Neither claim presents reliable evidence.  I think the Pundit household number theory is more plausible.

If you assume only 2 members(adults) of each household are registered, at a 100% rate you come up with

Central - 2,449,484  (register figure is 2,398,815)
Western - 1,808,150 (register figure is 1,616,518)

Not too far off from the actual figures.