Dr Ndii on kenya debt, eurobond, jubilee, and SGR

[Omollo]

Pundit

I understand that you believe I know nothing about economics. Could be so or could be I have other interests.

This is what you call "Domestic Borrowing" right?

Is it the same thing he and Uhuru told us would stop once the Eurobond landed? Before you say it let me make it clear that Uhuru never said domestic borrowing would reduce only for that year or month or week. He indicated that domestic borrowing would diminish for good.

Omollo - today Rotich is issuing 30B treasury bonds - for budgetary support. This is a daily scandal or it not as sexy as Eurobond.
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Treasury-issues-Sh30-billion-bond-for-budgetary-support/539552-3523314-gyub9jz/index.html

[MOON Ki]

We've been thro this with Moonki. 2010 growth was 5.6. In 2014  GDP was re-based - that mean base year was moved from 2003 to I think 2009 - and GDP was revised - we discovered we had been underestimating the economy for sometime.

Kibadinga growth - 2008 1.7% 2009 2.9% 2010 5.6% 2011 4.2% 2012 4.6%....3.8% (4%)

Jubilee starts in -2013 5.7% 2014 5.3% 2015 5.6% 2016 -so far it average of 6% based on two quarters 5.7%(6%)

Didn't I just tell you to make a better effort with the numbers?     
 
(a) The whole point of rebasing was to get more accurate figures!    Read that again.    That is why after rebasing, KNBS went back and recomputed the figures starting from the year of the new base.    And all that is why  everyone, except Pundit, uses the new and more accurate numbers.

(b) With the numbers you give above, you are comparing numbers on one base (the old one) with numbers on a different base (the new one).    Which makes more sense? To do that, or to compare numbers on the same base (the new one)?    I hope you didn't cut all the Logic 101 classes.

Here, let me give you some guidance that will help you understand all that.     After rebasing, KNBS prepared a sort of "FAQ & Answers".  Very simple, straightforward document.  It explains why rebasing was necessary, why the GDP figures had to be recomputed and why the new numbers are better and so on.   You should read it and endeavour to understand it.   It is the second document here:

http://www.knbs.or.ke/index.php?option=com_phocadownload&view=category&id=119:national-accounts-rebasing&Itemid=599

Pay particular attention to page 12.

[RV Pundit]

Moonki..you're talking nonsense...as always.Your  cannot use rebased revised figures to compare.Nobody knows for sure when those figures went off.If we rebase today..to 2012..5yrs as is recommended..would you wait for new figures so we can compare.

[Omollo]

I am sure MoonKi will respond to your concerns. Mine is simple: Where are you getting your figures from? Can I also go there and get the same figures?

Moonki..you're talking nonsense...as always.Your  cannot use rebased revised figures to compare.Nobody knows for sure when those figures went off.If we rebase today..to 2012..5yrs as is recommended..would you wait for new figures so we can compare.

[MOON Ki]

Moonki..you're talking nonsense...as always.Your  cannot use rebased revised figures to compare.Nobody knows for sure when those figures went off.If we rebase today..to 2012..5yrs as is recommended..would you wait for new figures so we can compare.

Please see (b) above.    Instead of the usual petty insults,  take some time to try and understand it; it might also help  you to carefully read the KNBS explanations.    And, briefly: the rebased figures are used for the very simple reason that they are in fact more accurate; see (a) above.   They are the figures that KNBS now reports  and which everyone, except RV Pundit, now uses in analyses.   Take a look at, for example, what the World Bank has in its books and the basis on which it analyses the Kenyan economy (scroll down):

http://data.worldbank.org/country/kenya
(What figure does the World Bank give for, say, 2010?    When people look at the figure for that year, should they go with the World Bank or with RV Pundit of Nipate.org?)

And here is a randomly selected source reporting on Kenya's economic growth:

http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Kenya/Economic_growth/
(You can find plenty of such all over the place ... people using the new figures, and with good-and-obvious reason.)

It is possible that KNBS, World Bank, IMF, etc. that are all using the new figures for long-range analysis and comparison are also "talking nonsense", but I'm going to go with them.

If we rebase today, to 2012, the whole point would be to have more accurate figures.   Having obtained the more accurate figures, we would, as a matter of simple logic, base our comparisons on those more accurate figures.   Why? Because the whole point of rebasing would be to get more accurate figures to use in analysis.    (I hope that repetition helps.)

[MOON Ki]

Mine is simple: Where are you getting your figures from? Can I also go there and get the same figures?

Pundit is an interesting one with figures.   He forcefully asserted that the growth rate for 2016 is 6.2%.  I found that amusing because I know that KNBS has not even given figures for Q4 of 2016---in fact, I believe the figures for Q3 came out only last month---so I amused myself by chasing him around on that one .... the way that, years ago, I used to wield a cane as I chased my little brother.   

Then we had another one:

And please 2009 n 2010 growth is something like 2.8 and 2.9.Not 5.8.NARA best was I think 3.4.....before rebasing in 2014.

Sigh.   Here we go again.    Where did you get the figure for 2.8 or 2.9 for 2010?   Can you give a direct answer and save us the usual dancing-around?

And so on.

[Omollo]

Pundit

Since all figures show that Jubilee has under-performed NARA and since you based your decision to vote for Jubilee on the mistaken belief that Jubilee had done better than NARA, would you now commit to vote for Raila so he can continue with the good work?

Statistics show that there has been economic growth every time Raila was in government and a down ward trend whenever he was not in. The same statistics show that Uhuru has always caused a brake to be applied on Growth every time he enters government. Is that not another reason to decamp from Jubilee to CORD?

I assume your only consideration in determining who to vote for has been the best performer economically. Now that we have it in black and white, should you not be announcing your defection?

You need not apologize to David Ndii: I am sure he will understand.

[MOON Ki]

NARA borrowed 650M usd commercial loan to fund our election(dr ndoom obstuficate all that)

Astonishing.   That seems like a really huge figure just for elections.    Can we have some more information---sources etc.---so that we can have an objective discussion?

we are set to collect 14b usd from taxes - and couple more from AIA - what is 10B debt from Chinese???????????????

Presumably Kenyans would like to see tax money used to provide services, rather than mostly to pay debt?

[RV Pundit]

More predictable obtuseness.When we rebased our economy we realized it was 25% bigger than we thought and again nobody knows when those figures went off...but they to be factored from the new base year we chose..5yrs from 2014...if we had chosen to rebase it this year.
..and picked 2012 as base year..our 2012 revised growth rate wold be bigger...and some fool would attribute all that growth to 2012.If like Nigeria we waited for 30yrs before rebasing it to 2008..and revise growth that year to 100%...will you say economy of Nigeria grew 59% in 2010.Absolute obtuse nonsense.Revised growth rate always have * for that..caveat... Understand rebasing first.The figures become accurate post rebasing...but nobody knows wen it went off and where to allocate that growth..so we start from the base year we have chosen and recalculate all years upto present...from 2010 to 2013 in Kenya case..have revised growth rates.

[RV Pundit]

Talk about stuff you have some inkling about. My advice remain - you and odm lumanaries should take economics 101 and maybe public finance 101 - and we can talk things country's economy from the same level.

Even if we use re-based figures - NARA figures come to 4.8%

Kibadinga growth - 2008 02.% (rebased 1.5) 2009 (2.9% -rebased to 3.3%) 2010 (5.6% -rebased to 8.4%) 2011 4.2% (rebased 6.1%) 2012 4.6% (rebased to 4.7%)....3.8%  (rebased 4.8%)

Jubilee starts in -2013 5.7% 2014 5.3% 2015 5.6% 2016 -so far it average of 6% based on two quarters  - 5.8 - non-rebased - once re-based it will maybe 6.6% (7%) or more!

Technical note: figures away from 2009 - the current base year - are going to have to be re-based - again when we chose a new base year - so they are "tentative" - with most  distortion around the new base year..

-+
Pundit

Since all figures show that Jubilee has under-performed NARA and since you based your decision to vote for Jubilee on the mistaken belief that Jubilee had done better than NARA, would you now commit to vote for Raila so he can continue with the good work?
-Statistics show that there has been economic growth every time Raila was in government and a down ward trend whenever he was not in. The same statistics show that Uhuru has always caused a brake to be applied on Growth every time he enters government. Is that not another reason to decamp from Jubilee to CORD?

I assume your only consideration in determining who to vote for has been the best performer economically. Now that we have it in black and white, should you not be announcing your defection?

You need not apologize to David Ndii: I am sure he will understand.

[RV Pundit]

Yeah the economy grew from 2.9% to whopping 8.2% in 2010. Who if not KNBS & WB announced GDP growth rate of 5.6% for 2010.  Try understand re-basing first. We can only compare apples to apples. We have re-based gdp figures from 2013. We have to wait until we do another re-basing before we can compare revised gdp of 2008-2012 with 2013-2017.  As of now the comparison that make sense will be un-revised gdp figures. Otherwise you'r comparing accurate figures (rebased) and with distorted figures. KNBS did rebasing in 2006 (base yr moved to 2002) - so figures from 2006 were revised  & are accurate and then again in 2013 (base yr 2009) -we have accurate revised gdp figures from 2006 to 2013. The next re-basing will have to correct figures from 2014 up! --Jubilee figures will most likely go up. So you cannot compare apples and oranges.

Please see (b) above.    Instead of the usual petty insults,  take some time to try and understand it; it might also help  you to carefully read the KNBS explanations.    And, briefly: the rebased figures are used for the very simple reason that they are in fact more accurate; see (a) above.   They are the figures that KNBS now reports  and which everyone, except RV Pundit, now uses in analyses.   Take a look at, for example, what the World Bank has in its books and the basis on which it analyses the Kenyan economy (scroll down):

http://data.worldbank.org/country/kenya
(What figure does the World Bank give for, say, 2010?    When people look at the figure for that year, should they go with the World Bank or with RV Pundit of Nipate.org?)

And here is a randomly selected source reporting on Kenya's economic growth:

http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Kenya/Economic_growth/
(You can find plenty of such all over the place ... people using the new figures, and with good-and-obvious reason.)

It is possible that KNBS, World Bank, IMF, etc. that are all using the new figures for long-range analysis and comparison are also "talking nonsense", but I'm going to go with them.

If we rebase today, to 2012, the whole point would be to have more accurate figures.   Having obtained the more accurate figures, we would, as a matter of simple logic, base our comparisons on those more accurate figures.   Why? Because the whole point of rebasing would be to get more accurate figures to use in analysis.    (I hope that repetition helps.)

[Omollo]

Pundit

The subject of my ignorance is very important to me. That is why I have been asking you to help me understand your figures.

Kindly share with me the sources of your figures, especially the Non Rebased figures.

And while at it there is the little matter of your earlier figures and the current ones. How do you reconcile the two? Or I need an economics degree for that? For example you authoritatively understated Kibaki-Raila growth record for 2010. I am missing an explanation there.

But lest we forget I need the source of the Pre-Rebasing Figures so I can understand your stance.

Talk about stuff you have some inkling about. My advice remain - you and odm lumanaries should take economics 101 and maybe public finance 101 - and we can talk things country's economy from the same level.

Even if we use re-based figures - NARA figures come to 4.8%

Kibadinga growth - 2008 02.% (rebased 1.5) 2009 (2.9% -rebased to 3.3%) 2010 (5.6% -rebased to 8.4%) 2011 4.2% (rebased 6.1%) 2012 4.6% (rebased to 4.7%)....3.8%  (rebased 4.8%)

Jubilee starts in -2013 5.7% 2014 5.3% 2015 5.6% 2016 -so far it average of 6% based on two quarters  - 5.8 - non-rebased - once re-based it will maybe 6.6% (7%) or more!

Technical note: figures away from 2009 - the current base year - are going to have to be re-based - again when we chose a new base year - so they are "tentative" - with most  distortion around the new base year..

Pundit

Since all figures show that Jubilee has under-performed NARA and since you based your decision to vote for Jubilee on the mistaken belief that Jubilee had done better than NARA, would you now commit to vote for Raila so he can continue with the good work?
-Statistics show that there has been economic growth every time Raila was in government and a down ward trend whenever he was not in. The same statistics show that Uhuru has always caused a brake to be applied on Growth every time he enters government. Is that not another reason to decamp from Jubilee to CORD?

I assume your only consideration in determining who to vote for has been the best performer economically. Now that we have it in black and white, should you not be announcing your defection?

You need not apologize to David Ndii: I am sure he will understand.

[Omollo]

Pundit

I am not holding a brief for MoonKi. However I am finding some very interesting things every day. Since I am learning from you I have to remain respectable:

• You write and allow me to quote:

  the comparison that make sense will be un-revised gdp figures. Otherwise you're comparing accurate figures (rebased) and with distorted figures... [they] were revised  & are accurate.

  
  This is slightly shocking because you have never tired of comparing Jubilee's "distorted figures" to NARA's "accurate" figures. In short are you not accusing MoonKi of exactly what you have been doing for sometime?
  
  
  
• Apparently you ignore your own admonishments here as you write: The next re-basing will have to correct figures from 2014 up! --Jubilee figures will most likely go up. So you cannot compare apples and oranges..
  
• I humbly ask again: What is the source of your "Un-revised, [inaccurate] and Distorted figures"? (your own words)

You have suggested that your figures were first announced by the WB and KNBS. If that be the case is there a reason they have not kept them publicly available?

Yeah the economy grew from 2.9% to whopping 8.2% in 2010. Who if not KNBS & WB announced GDP growth rate of 5.6% for 2010. 

Try understand re-basing first. We can only compare apples to apples. We have re-based gdp figures from 2013. We have to wait until we do another re-basing before we can compare revised gdp of 2008-2012 with 2013-2017.  As of now the comparison that make sense will be un-revised gdp figures. Otherwise you'r comparing accurate figures (rebased) and with distorted figures. KNBS did rebasing in 2006 (base yr moved to 2002) - so figures from 2006 were revised  & are accurate and then again in 2013 (base yr 2009) -we have accurate revised gdp figures from 2006 to 2013. The next re-basing will have to correct figures from 2014 up! --Jubilee figures will most likely go up. So you cannot compare apples and oranges.

[RV Pundit]

Omollo, Let me help you understand these technical stuff. I know unlike smart alec moonki who spend all his time nitpicking and hairsplitting - your ignorance on these matters is genuine. When measuring complex phenomenon like the economy or hunger or name it; we start from a base year; so we can measure against it; In my daughter's school they give them opener exams that would be similar to end of term exam;base exam. Economy is very dynamic (one sector today could become obselete while another could spring up and become very key - see m-pesa now for example or whole mobile telecom sector) - so we have to keep re-basing after every couple years. The UN recommend we re-base every 5yrs. Most developed countries do this - including census every 5yrs - coz they can afford to collect data regularly. We cannot do that. Most africa countries rebase from anything 30-10yrs. Kenya is one of stars - it re-bases nearly every 9-10 yrs and hold regular census every 10yrs.

So long story short...in recent memory..KNBS rebased the economy in 2006(nyongo era)....re-adjusted or revised growth rate for all those years since it was last re-based in 90s to 2006. The base year was set to 2002 or 2003 I think.In 2014...KNBS..rebased/revised again...all figures from 2013 till 2006. All GDP figures in that period are re-based and "FINAL".The figures from 2014 till now...are NOT FINAL. Until we re-base again...those are preliminary figures. More often than not - we know we understimate the size of our economy...so the current interim gdp figures are understating growth. Instead of 6% now...we might discovered we actually grew by 10%!

You cannot compare final with interim. Revised with non-revised figures.

Note 1) Moonki was sometime recently deriding the re-based figures. Now he is happy to tout them coz NARA's 2010's 8.4%.
Note 2) When I throw figures.. I am throwing ballparks...I don't care about fact-checking them..I simply relie on my memory to recall stuff..but I focus on the big picture.

Conclusion: Jubilee has grown economy nearly twice the rate of NARA.

[Omollo]

Pundit

Of course my ignorance is genuine. That is why I am asking questions.

If you don't mind could you share with me the figures for 2007? I mean the pre and post rebasing growth rate?

Thank you in advance.

[Omollo]

Conclusion: Jubilee has grown economy nearly twice the rate of NARA.

You cannot compare final with interim. Revised with non-revised figures.

Pundit, would you guess why I am laughing?

[RV Pundit]

We can compare interim with interim. we have interim figures for both regimes. NARA gdp were revised upwards after rebasing. Jubilee numbers are waiting for re-basing.

Conclusion: Jubilee has grown economy nearly twice the rate of NARA.

You cannot compare final with interim. Revised with non-revised figures.

Pundit, would you guess why I am laughing?

[Omollo]

Heaven be praised. Finally you get my question. Where can I find the figures? I know you have them in your head but I need a different source.

We can compare interim with interim. we have interim figures for both regimes.

Conclusion: Jubilee has grown economy nearly twice the rate of NARA.

You cannot compare final with interim. Revised with non-revised figures.

Pundit, would you guess why I am laughing?

[RV Pundit]

Omolo surely you can search.

[Omollo]

There lies the problem. I have searched. So has MoonKi (from what he has written below) but no I get nothing. So since you are dropping them I assumed you have a source that we can all look at.

Omolo surely you can search.