Dr Ndii on kenya debt, eurobond, jubilee, and SGR

[MOON Ki]

And please 2009 n 2010 growth is something like 2.8 and 2.9.Not 5.8.NARA best was I think 3.4.....before rebasing in 2014.

oparanya who was the minister of planning can give you all the details...before rebasing by jubilee.

Sigh.   Here we go again.    Where did you get the figure for 2.8 or 2.9 for 2010?   Can you give a direct answer and save us the usual dancing-around?

That's your answer? That you heard Oparanya say it at some unspecified time and place?   And on that basis you are all worked up, arguing, and making assertions?

[RV Pundit]

Big picture thinking.Learn n practise that.

No time for that.  I'm too busy with real numbers and logic and stuff like that---the "predictable nonsense" and "childish nonsense" etc.  But I'll keep your suggestion in mind for when I'm stoned or drunk.   

way too much details...you always miss the point

[RV Pundit]

And please 2009 n 2010 growth is something like 2.8 and 2.9.Not 5.8.NARA best was I think 3.4.....before rebasing in 2014.

oparanya who was the minister of planning can give you all the details...before rebasing by jubilee.

Sigh.   Here we go again.    Where did you get the figure for 2.8 or 2.9 for 2010?   Can you give a direct answer and save us the usual dancing-around?

That's your answer? That you heard Oparanya say it at some unspecified time and place?   And on that basis you are all worked up, arguing, and making assertions?

of course.I relie on my memory more often than not.I don't google.I know for sure that knbs growth rate for 2009 and 2010 before rebasing was less than 3.where you get 5.8 ..which is way off...shows your    arguing about stuff you barely understand.

[MOON Ki]

way too much details...you always miss the point

It amuses me.   Anyways .... we went around quite a bit from RV Pundit's assertion (repeated) that

Official growth this yr was 6.2%

(6.2.  Not even rounded, by The Rounder, to 6)

to RV Pundit's revision that

To be precise we don't yet have 2016 data

Must we do the same with

2010 growth is something like 2.8 and 2.9.Not 5.8.

and the Oparanya story?

[MOON Ki]

I know for sure that knbs growth rate for 2009 and 2010 before rebasing was less than 3.where you get 5.8 ..which is way off...shows your    arguing about stuff you barely understand.

Really? You know for sure?   And do you want to stick with that, or should we get ready for a "big picture"/"rounding off"/"no exact figure" conclusion of the type we just had?

[RV Pundit]

Okay after googling we have 1.7 then 2.9 then 5.6 then 4.2  then 3 ...average...3 percent for nara...jubilee are averaging 6...remember to round off..big picture...jubilee are better stewards of our economy.

[MOON Ki]

Okay after googling we have 1.7 then 2.9 then 5.6 then 4.2  then 3 ...average...3 percent for nara...jubilee are averaging 6...remember to round off..big picture...jubilee are better stewards of our economy.

Suggestion: (a) Do some more and better  "googling".   (b) Make a better effort in understanding and interpreting the figures.

[RV Pundit]

If the topic was about figures - I certainly would have made effort. It about Jubilee having better managed the economy. Again the elephant in the house..Jubilee on average is rounding up to 6%...while NaRA is rounding down to 3%. And so Dr Ndii nonsense that Jubilee is worst regime is PLAIN NONSENSE. On the contrary facts are showing this is BEST regime.

Suggestion: (a) Do some more and better  "googling".   (b) Make a better effort in understanding and interpreting the figures.

[Omollo]

All Ndii, CORD and Omollo are asking for is an itemized list of the beneficiary projects ( as Rotich said) or general expenditure (as you now allege).

Eurobond..was for budgetary support..not ringfenced...the money ended all over.
.including counties,salaries.

[Omollo]

Don't forget the war fought to control KNBS. Now we know why that was crucial.

Official figures are from knbs.Jubilee has nearly doubled NARA growth.Those are FACTS

[RV Pundit]

2013-2014 & 2014-2015 Budget is itemized enough for Ndii and you. Rotich job was to finance (from collection of revenue, borrowing domestically and abroad) the budget and he did that. You cannot ask him for where the money went to - it went to each budget line. Rotich did borrow less money than year locally (from tbills/tbonds - which easy to verify - ) and used Eurobond. Eurobond or TBond are the same - the money comes from external entities - and you can confirm that - by checking tbonds & tbills.

We got great deal with eurobond - at about 5-6% interest rate - compared to nearly 10% in domestic borrowing (treasury bonds).

so you chose euro-bond versus treasury bonds. Rotich floats those things every day in his business of financing the budget.

All Ndii, CORD and Omollo are asking for is an itemized list of the beneficiary projects ( as Rotich said) or general expenditure (as you now allege).

[Omollo]

2010 is rebased growth....base year was moved to 2009..in 2014 by Jubilee....so those are revised figures...otherwise growth rate for 2010 was most likely 3 percent....you're so ignorant of these stuff and it such pain arguing with ignorant folks.The underestion that rebasing exposed cannot be attributed to one year except for accounting purposes.NARA growth averaged 3...jubilee are doing twice as good.That is a fact.

When I look at the figures by Uhuru's mandarins, I seem to wonder whether your base your statements facts as you claim. In fact I would like to suggest there was a huge decline the moment Jubilee took over.

Am I right or just sowing ignorance Ndugu Pundit?

[Omollo]

Pundit

Keep going and with a little luck will appreciate that Eurobond was stolen.

I disagree that all revenue is lumped up together and dished out without any knowledge of what money came from where.

1. Are you saying that the Eurobond was factored in the budget?

I can't help but to shudder at what you have written below. Advise Rotich never to come to work under me in Finance. If he cannot segregate Funds based on source and Spending then he is unqualified for the job.

Allow me to ask one question at a time

2013-2014 & 2014-2015 Budget is itemized enough for Ndii and you. Rotich job was to finance (from collection of revenue, borrowing domestically and abroad) the budget and he did that. You cannot ask him for where the money went to - it went to each budget line. Rotich did borrow less money than year locally (from tbills/tbonds - which easy to verify - ) and used Eurobond. Eurobond or TBond are the same - the money comes from external entities - and you can confirm that - by checking tbonds & tbills.

We got great deal with eurobond - at about 5-6% interest rate - compared to nearly 10% in domestic borrowing (treasury bonds).

so you chose euro-bond versus treasury bonds. Rotich floats those things every day in his business of financing the budget.

All Ndii, CORD and Omollo are asking for is an itemized list of the beneficiary projects ( as Rotich said) or general expenditure (as you now allege).

[Omollo]

If the topic was about figures - I certainly would have made effort. It about Jubilee having better managed the economy. Again the elephant in the house..Jubilee on average is rounding up to 6%...while NaRA is rounding down to 3%. And so Dr Ndii nonsense that Jubilee is worst regime is PLAIN NONSENSE. On the contrary facts are showing this is BEST regime.

I found this from your mandarins. Can I trust it?

[Omollo]

Pundit

I found this too. It stretches from 1990. Would you like to help me interpret it?

From my ignorance this is what I can say:
1. There is a steady growth from 2003 all the way to 2007 (6.2%) - an election year (Raila was in the government until 2005 while Uhuru was OUT)
2. Then there is a sharp drop in 2008 (0.5% )following PEV
3. NARA government then takes over and the growth resumes from 2009 at over 3%
4. 2010 records growth of nearly 9%

[RV Pundit]

It obvious you're ignorant on matters public finance. No need to argue.

Pundit

Keep going and with a little luck will appreciate that Eurobond was stolen.

I disagree that all revenue is lumped up together and dished out without any knowledge of what money came from where.

1. Are you saying that the Eurobond was factored in the budget?

I can't help but to shudder at what you have written below. Advise Rotich never to come to work under me in Finance. If he cannot segregate Funds based on source and Spending then he is unqualified for the job.

Allow me to ask one question at a time

2013-2014 & 2014-2015 Budget is itemized enough for Ndii and you. Rotich job was to finance (from collection of revenue, borrowing domestically and abroad) the budget and he did that. You cannot ask him for where the money went to - it went to each budget line. Rotich did borrow less money than year locally (from tbills/tbonds - which easy to verify - ) and used Eurobond. Eurobond or TBond are the same - the money comes from external entities - and you can confirm that - by checking tbonds & tbills.

We got great deal with eurobond - at about 5-6% interest rate - compared to nearly 10% in domestic borrowing (treasury bonds).

so you chose euro-bond versus treasury bonds. Rotich floats those things every day in his business of financing the budget.

All Ndii, CORD and Omollo are asking for is an itemized list of the beneficiary projects ( as Rotich said) or general expenditure (as you now allege).

[RV Pundit]

We've been thro this with Moonki. 2010 growth was 5.6. In 2014  GDP was re-based - that mean base year was moved from 2003 to I think 2009 - and GDP was revised - we discovered we had been underestimating the economy for sometime.

Kibadinga growth - 2008 1.7% 2009 2.9% 2010 5.6% 2011 4.2% 2012 4.6%....3.8% (4%)

Jubilee starts in -2013 5.7% 2014 5.3% 2015 5.6% 2016 -so far it average of 6% based on two quarters 5.7%(6%)

Verdict: Jubilee have been the better stewards of the economy. That extra 2% is attributed to stuff like SGR - which is expected to pump 1.5-2% to our economy annual during construction phase.

Again noted in 2014 the economy was rebased...so be careful with revised figures

Pundit

I found this too. It stretches from 1990. Would you like to help me interpret it?

From my ignorance this is what I can say:
1. There is a steady growth from 2003 all the way to 2007 (6.2%) - an election year (Raila was in the government until 2005 while Uhuru was OUT)
2. Then there is a sharp drop in 2008 (0.5% )following PEV
3. NARA government then takes over and the growth resumes from 2009 at over 3%
4. 2010 records growth of nearly 9%

[RV Pundit]

Omollo - today Rotich is issuing 30B treasury bonds - for budgetary support. This is a daily scandal or it not as sexy as Eurobond.
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Treasury-issues-Sh30-billion-bond-for-budgetary-support/539552-3523314-gyub9jz/index.html

[Omollo]

Pundit

My problem as usual is evidence.

The figures I have posted come from KNBS. Where do yours come from?

We've been thro this with Moonki. 2010 growth was 5.6. In 2014  GDP was re-based - that mean base year was moved from 2003 to I think 2009 - and GDP was revised - we discovered we had been underestimating the economy for sometime.

Kibadinga growth - 2008 1.7% 2009 2.9% 2010 5.6% 2011 4.2% 2012 4.6%....3.8% (4%)

Jubilee starts in -2013 5.7% 2014 5.3% 2015 5.6% 2016 -so far it average of 6% based on two quarters 5.7%(6%)

Verdict: Jubilee have been the better stewards of the economy. That extra 2% is attributed to stuff like SGR - which is expected to pump 1.5-2% to our economy annual during construction phase.

Again noted in 2014 the economy was rebased...so be careful with revised figures

Pundit

I found this too. It stretches from 1990. Would you like to help me interpret it?

From my ignorance this is what I can say:
1. There is a steady growth from 2003 all the way to 2007 (6.2%) - an election year (Raila was in the government until 2005 while Uhuru was OUT)
2. Then there is a sharp drop in 2008 (0.5% )following PEV
3. NARA government then takes over and the growth resumes from 2009 at over 3%
4. 2010 records growth of nearly 9%

[Omollo]

Did you say I should be careful with the figures? Why? I extract my figures from the KNBS where I believed you too were extracting yours.

Now according to them (post rebasing) here are the figures. The figures show that so far Jubilee has NOT beaten Kibaki-Raila record of 2010. I do not attach much to your figures because you have not disclosed the source. If you supply the link I should be able to access the site :

We've been thro this with Moonki. 2010 growth was 5.6. In 2014  GDP was re-based - that mean base year was moved from 2003 to I think 2009 - and GDP was revised - we discovered we had been underestimating the economy for sometime.

Kibadinga growth -
2008 1.7%
2009 2.9%
2010 5.6%
2011 4.2%
2012 4.6%....3.8% (4%)

Jubilee starts in -

2013 5.7%
2014 5.3%
2015 5.6%
2016 -so far it average of 6% based on two quarters 5.7%(6%)

Verdict: Jubilee have been the better stewards of the economy. That extra 2% is attributed to stuff like SGR - which is expected to pump 1.5-2% to our economy annual during construction phase.

Again noted in 2014 the economy was rebased...so be careful with revised figures