Dr Ndii on kenya debt, eurobond, jubilee, and SGR

[Omollo]

Pundit
Is any of the following true?

• Before Jubilee, interest on foreign debt was costing us less than $5 out of every $100 dollars of foreign exchange earnings.
• Today, it is costing us $15 dollars, and rising fast.
• Spending 40 per cent of our revenue servicing debt means less money to provide services.
• It is also a threat to devolution. The constitution mandates national priorities before the counties revenue share is determined.

You can lie to others but not me. Under NARA - when economy was being "well managed" - by Raila & Kibaki - economy was growing at - 2012/2013 - about 3.4%- Jubilee have steadily move that growth from 4% to 5%(2015) to 6.2% in 2016 & we shall soon do(7%).1% in 70B usd gdp is 0.7B - 6% is 3.6BUSd (more than SGR loan). Jubilee is adding 400B to the economy every year.

Where was Dr Doom when economy was growing at 3.4% in 2012 - and - now he comes predict doom - when the economy is growing at 6.2%! Nearly double what NARA did?

This is by far the best regime - when all is considered. Kibaki took over from really low base after Moi mess -he tried economically - but he screwed up politically & in all other areas - so landed us in kenya lowest point (2017) when we nearly went into civil war.

Jubilee will win by huge margin coz kenyans are not stupid.

Typical jubilee thinking: Truth by majority vote

[MOON Ki]

You can lie to others but not me. Under NARA - when economy was being "well managed" - by Raila & Kibaki - economy was growing at - 2012/2013 - about 3.4%- Jubilee have steadily move that growth from 4% to 5%(2015) to 6.2% in 2016 & we shall soon do(7%).

I'm curious to know where this figure comes from.    The latest projections I have seen are for 5.9% for 2016.

And: what were the growth rates in 2010 and 2011?     Perhaps returning even to those levels should be targets for present and future governments.   

[Omollo]

Nonsense from Dr Ndii that have failed to get any traction years later.

The article was published on the 13th of January 2017. Hardly a month has passed, leave alone a year!

Amazingly he makes not a SINGLE sensible argument.

I find what he says sensible and I believe many other people too. I haven't read a single intelligent response to him. All  I read are ad hominem attacks and threats directed at him.

Jubilee deserves Kudos for floating the first ever Eurobond - kenya and many countries have tried to do this - and I am glad we might soon be floating another Eurobond.

Ndii has stated that there is no evidence of the projects on which Eurobond was used.
I recall Jubilee Minister Rotich promising to provide the list of the projects. Would like to share them here?

This is our developed countries easily finance their projects - by tapping into huge debt market - rather than borrowing internally.

Right. Domestic borrowing: Ndii says contrary to Jubilee claims it has actually spiked. Is he lying and can you prove he is?

We borrowed less in that yr and all Eurobond monies have been accounted for.

How have they been accounted for? By the declaration from Rotich or the Corruption convicted Lagarde of IMF? Which projects were Eurobond finaced Pundit. It shopuld be easy to list them and even put a placard on them: This Project was financed by Eurobond...

The issue of SGR has been clarified severally. We couldn't upgrade MGR because of that rail-line has been concession-ed till 2025 by both Kenya and Uganda.We are getting Class A rail with ability to move 20-30m tonnes and have really long tunnels to ensure tsavo & nairobi national park are unaffected. Ethiopia will get class 2 railway coz they need to move mere 10m metric tonnes.

Concessions do not preclude upgrades. No sir. Sweden was the first to go the way of concessions. All companies involved were Swedish. I am well versed with the concept for reasons I can't say here.

We can go on and on...by dr ndoom..should realize that our economy cannot grow at 6% if there was massive looting & mismanagement going on.

We can take more debt - coz we have the ability to repay - our economy is way bigger than in NARA (after re-basing in 13/14) - our tax collection is growing at double digit - set to collect 14B USD this year.

[Omollo]

It is a Jubilee figure cooked by Jubilee mandarins.

I will apologize if it turns out to be credible.


It is sad that we are in 2017 and mandarins churn out figures and we spread them unquestioningly.

Rotich promised to publish the list of projects financed by Eurobond. I have been asking for it. I travel alot and sometimes lose contact with the civilized world. So I have been begging to see an itemized list showing project and how much was spent on it.

You can lie to others but not me. Under NARA - when economy was being "well managed" - by Raila & Kibaki - economy was growing at - 2012/2013 - about 3.4%- Jubilee have steadily move that growth from 4% to 5%(2015) to 6.2% in 2016 & we shall soon do(7%).

I'm curious to know where this figure comes from.    The latest projections I have seen are for 5.9% for 2016.     

[Omollo]

Mr. Zachary Mwangi - Director General

[Georgesoros]

You can never get a true picture of what happned to the monies. Govt officials are afraid to give a true pic because Jubilee gang will have them fired or even worse. Its a govt by the gang for a few gang members.

[RV Pundit]

More predictable nonsense.Rebased growth rate cannot be attributed to a year or two.Official growth this yr was 6.2%.Projection from various players for 2017 and figures so far from first two quarters point to another stellar growth...6% plus.

[RV Pundit]

Eurobond..was for budgetary support..not ringfenced...the money ended all over.
.including counties,salaries.

[MOON Ki]

More predictable nonsense.Rebased growth rate cannot be attributed to a year or two.Official growth this yr was 6.2%.Projection from various players for 2017 and figures so far from first two quarters point to another stellar growth...6% plus.

Which part is the nonsense?   First, nowhere has the rebasing been attributed to just a  year or two.   Second, as is the norm and necessary, after rebasing all growth rates starting from the year of the rebasing were recomputed.  What I have selected are two of those years.  KNBS, Kenyan Treasury, World Bank, IMF, ... all work with the recomputed figures.     Are we to take it that they are all wrong but RV Pundit is correct?

You have again repeated the claim of 6.2% for 2016.    Again, I ask: What is your "official" source for that number?    A source would help us have a more objective discussion than "more predictable nonsense".   

[RV Pundit]

Official figures are from knbs.Jubilee has nearly doubled NARA growth.Those are FACTS

[MOON Ki]

Official figures are from knbs.Jubilee has nearly doubled NARA growth.Those are FACTS

Can you specifically point us to where KNBS gives the 6.2% for 2016 that you keep insisting on?  That would help a great deal.

By the way, you might not be aware of this, but growth in 2008 and 2009 was greatly affected by the PEV.   That is partly why I skipped those and selected  2010 and 2011.    In fact, it may be said that the government did very well to go from 0.2% in 2008 to 8.4% in 2010, the latter a historically very high figure.   Before the PEV, the growth was 6.9%  in 2007, well above what is causing you so much excitement.

[RV Pundit]

2010 is rebased growth....base year was moved to 2009..in 2014 by Jubilee....so those are revised figures...otherwise growth rate for 2010 was most likely 3 percent....you're so ignorant of these stuff and it such pain arguing with ignorant folks.The underestion that rebasing exposed cannot be attributed to one year except for accounting purposes.NARA growth averaged 3...jubilee are doing twice as good.That is a fact.

[MOON Ki]

2910 is rebased growth....base year was moved there...you're so ignorant of these stuff and it such pain arguing with ignorant folk.NARA growth averaged 3...jubilee are doing twice as good.

First, let's start with where you have stated, repeatedly that growth rate for 2016 is 6.2%, and I have repeatedly asked for your exact source for that number.   So far, I don't see any answers, but I see you jumping all around.     Once we get past that one, we can get to rebasing and why everyone else is wrong but RV Pundit is right.   Somewhat amusingly you, as usual emphasizing guesswork and fantasy, as usual, and hoping that hopeful assertion will triumph over reality, write that:

otherwise growth rate for 2010 was most likely 3 percent...

We do have an actual and real figure: before rebasing in was 5.8%.   But, let's leave rebasing for later.   Let's take these things one at a time. Let's start here:

One more time: you have categorically stated, repeatedly, that the growth rate for 2016 is 6.2%.   What is your exact source for that figure.?

[RV Pundit]

Omollo has put chart up there....with all quarterly growth rate since 2014.Jubilee are averaging 6..if you round off.To be precise we don't yet have 2016 data..Q1 grew by 6.2. The point before we got into hair splitting business of yours remain that previous regime averaged 3 percent whilt Jubilee are doing a great job ...growing it twice thro stuff like SGR.This growth is not happenstance.It been driven mainly by heavy investment in infrastructure.

[RV Pundit]

And please 2009 n 2010 growth is something like 2.8 and 2.9.Not 5.8.NARA best was I think 3.4.....before rebasing in 2014.

[MOON Ki]

Omollo has put chart up there....with all quarterly growth rate since 2014.Jubilee are averaging 6..if you round off.   To be precise we don't yet have 2016 data..Q1 grew by 6.2.

Did I just read that correctly?  And you have been arguing and making assertions about what?

Still, you are getting the hang of it.  Getting closer to reality instead of simply asserting, forcefully and repeatedly,  that the growth rate for 2016 was 6.2%.   I take it that you now understand that the growth rate for one quarter does not determine the growth rate for the whole year?

You state that "Omollo has put chart up there....with all quarterly growth rate since 2014.Jubilee are averaging 6".   I'll leave it to others to look at the Omollo figures and work out the averages.

[MOON Ki]

And please 2009 n 2010 growth is something like 2.8 and 2.9.Not 5.8.NARA best was I think 3.4.....before rebasing in 2014.

Sigh.   Here we go again.    Where did you get the figure for 2.8 or 2.9 for 2010?   Can you give a direct answer and save us the usual dancing-around?

[RV Pundit]

Omollo has put chart up there....with all quarterly growth rate since 2014.Jubilee are averaging 6..if you round off.   To be precise we don't yet have 2016 data..Q1 grew by 6.2.

Did I just read that correctly?  And you have been arguing and making assertions about wht?

Still, you are getting the hang of it.  Getting closer to reality instead of simply asserting, forcefully and repeatedly,  that the growth rate for 2016 was 6.2%.   I take it that you now understand that the growth rate for one quarter does not determine the growth rate for the whole year?

You state that "Omollo has put chart up there....with all quarterly growth rate since 2014.Jubilee are averaging 6".   I'll leave it to others to look at the Omollo figures and work out the averages.

Big picture thinking.Learn n practise that.Your too detailed oriented you often miss the point.The uncontested point remain that jubilee thro nailing stuff like sgr are doing twie as good as kibakidinga did.

[RV Pundit]

And please 2009 n 2010 growth is something like 2.8 and 2.9.Not 5.8.NARA best was I think 3.4.....before rebasing in 2014.

oparanya who was the minister of planning can give you all the details...before rebasing by jubilee.

Sigh.   Here we go again.    Where did you get the figure for 2.8 or 2.9 for 2010?   Can you give a direct answer and save us the usual dancing-around?

[MOON Ki]

Big picture thinking.Learn n practise that.

No time for that.  I'm too busy with real numbers and logic and stuff like that---the "predictable nonsense" and "childish nonsense" etc.  But I'll keep your suggestion in mind for when I'm stoned or drunk.