Is 2017 a forgone conclusion..

[Globalcitizen12]

• Tweet

It seems like Jubilee is laying strategy  for 2022 and has concluded that their numbers will still carry the day in August 2017.  what do you think? I see central middle class threatening to stay home due to corruption but I doubt if the voters can carry out this threat. Raila will need to turn up his base to 90% to beat Uhuru. As it stands no one knows what the registration of voters breakdown is. With a weakened IEBC there is no way to beat incumbent.

[Pajero]

Too early to predict.Ipsos are refusing to release a new poll showing Uhuru 40%,Raila 38%.

[Gumzo]

It seems like Jubilee is laying strategy  for 2022 and has concluded that their numbers will still carry the day in August 2017.  what do you think? I see central middle class threatening to stay home due to corruption but I doubt if the voters can carry out this threat. Raila will need to turn up his base to 90% to beat Uhuru. As it stands no one knows what the registration of voters breakdown is. With a weakened IEBC there is no way to beat incumbent.

The middle class Kiuk is looking to get in on the eating action
The entire Kikuyu will come out and vote specifically for corruption to go on
They are already saying that 2017 is already decided and
what is happening now is that Ruto is campaigning for 2022

respectfully;
 

[Empedocles]

It seems like Jubilee is laying strategy  for 2022 and has concluded that their numbers will still carry the day in August 2017.  what do you think? I see central middle class threatening to stay home due to corruption but I doubt if the voters can carry out this threat. Raila will need to turn up his base to 90% to beat Uhuru. As it stands no one knows what the registration of voters breakdown is. With a weakened IEBC there is no way to beat incumbent.

The middle class Kiuk is looking to get in on the eating action
The entire Kikuyu will come out and vote specifically for corruption to go on
They are already saying that 2017 is already decided and
what is happening now is that Ruto is campaigning for 2022

respectfully;
 

That's quite unfair and a wee bit, how do I say it, tribalistic.

Just like Trumps supporters were conned with dreams of the wall, nice jobs, jailing Hillary, a middle finger to the establishment, and other ridiculous promises made by Trump, so are the central Kiuks being cheated by Uhuru, just like Nyanza by RAO, RV by Ruto, Ukambani by Kalonzo, etc.

The promise of feasting in a country with very limited employment possibilities such as ours does have something to do with many wanting to join the eating.

[hk]

Most middle class and above kiuks that I know off are more focused on who'll be governor of counties they either reside in or hail from. The notion that kiuks middleclass are looking to partake on the looting is just utter nonsense since most kenyans don't even derive their income from government or counties.   

[RV Pundit]

Nothing has changed (in tribal coalition) btw 2013 and this coming election to warrant any other conclusion. Forgone conclusion. Uhuru has maintained his winning coalition and is expected to romp home. Let talk about 2022.

[Globalcitizen12]

Most middle class and above kiuks that I know off are more focused on who'll be governor of counties they either reside in or hail from. The notion that kiuks middleclass are looking to partake on the looting is just utter nonsense since most kenyans don't even derive their income from government or counties.

Agreed but this is not the right approach since counties only get a small percentage of tax revenue ..I think Central voters should make a decision whether corruption is such a factor that reelection of Uhuru should hinge on this issue.

[Gumzo]

Most middle class and above kiuks that I know off are more focused on who'll be governor of counties they either reside in or hail from. The notion that kiuks middleclass are looking to partake on the looting is just utter nonsense since most kenyans don't even derive their income from government or counties.

Agreed but this is not the right approach since counties only get a small percentage of tax revenue ..I think Central voters should make a decision whether corruption is such a factor that reelection of Uhuru should hinge on this issue.

You are right using the word SHOULD regarding the re election of Uhuru,
but his re election will not hinge on corruption or any other ISSUE.

Hapa ni Kenya, the only issue elections hinge on is TRIBE........period

 
Respectfully;

[Globalcitizen12]

The tribal question now is with Kikuyu voters. All the other voters have at least voted for someone outside their base as president. It is now for central voters to decide whether they will vote with Oligarchs within their nation or vote against it.

[Globalcitizen12]

http://mobile.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Uhuru-begins-tour-amid-voter-apathy-fears/3126390-3466102-item-1-qv00oc/index.html

Looks like the King is aware of this and is about to go and ask voters to save him. I think Raila is doing a superb job of avoiding verbal shouting contest with Jubilee.

[Georgesoros]

PPLe need a reason to vote. Trump won because the old guard keeps making the rules imposing their ideas over the electorate.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I haven't seen the opposition quite this disorganized in a while.  It seems like a formality.  I wish Raila could also treat it that way.  That way, he can push for longer term changes that involve more than just him winning the next election.

[hk]

Most middle class and above kiuks that I know off are more focused on who'll be governor of counties they either reside in or hail from. The notion that kiuks middleclass are looking to partake on the looting is just utter nonsense since most kenyans don't even derive their income from government or counties.

Agreed but this is not the right approach since counties only get a small percentage of tax revenue ..I think Central voters should make a decision whether corruption is such a factor that reelection of Uhuru should hinge on this issue.

County governments have direct impact on county residents and their impact is felt immediately. Whether its murraming of roads or tarmacking new roads. The easy of getting business permits etc. Pushing of kplc to put up substation to ease on power blackouts . Making sure water is readily available for companies, farmers and residents etc. This is what matters that's why a vote for MCA and Governor is very important. Our solution is more federalism and the sooner we elect capable governor the sooner we can increase counties allocation tied to economic activity of the counties.

[Globalcitizen12]

Glad to hear this because during Narc government central leadership was opposed to devolution.

[hk]

The tribal question now is with Kikuyu voters. All the other voters have at least voted for someone outside their base as president. It is now for central voters to decide whether they will vote with Oligarchs within their nation or vote against it.

So kikuyus shouldn't vote for their oligarchs but vote for other tribe oligarchs so as not be tribal?

[RV Pundit]

Central have come full circle on this. Luos were equally opposed to majimbo in 60s and came round in 90s.

Glad to hear this because during Narc government central leadership was opposed to devolution.

[Globalcitizen12]

Hk,
I think I responded to your inbox by mistake. Anyway my point is that the current politics in Kenya are not ideological they are all based on tribal domination and hegemony. So I would urge Kikuyus to vote for other tribal oligarchs just for tribal harmony sake. It seems they are prepared to do so for ruto in 2022. they can do it too in 2017 as a start.

RV Pundit,
CORD is  be beaten badly this time around. Raila has given up on Rift Valley and central. He only has lower eastern. if Kalonzo flips then Cord won't scrape 30%. CORD needed 840K votes to beat uhuru in 2013. Voter apathy cannot account for this chunk so CORD needs to out register Jubilee by 1.5M and also get out to vote in the upper 80s in all Cord zones. as for now Jubilee sits in a very good position

[Gumzo]

Hk,
I think I responded to your inbox by mistake. Anyway my point is that the current politics in Kenya are not ideological they are all based on tribal domination and hegemony. So I would urge Kikuyus to vote for other tribal oligarchs just for tribal harmony sake. It seems they are prepared to do so for ruto in 2022. they can do it too in 2017 as a start.

RV Pundit,
CORD is  be beaten badly this time around. Raila has given up on Rift Valley and central. He only has lower eastern. if Kalonzo flips then Cord won't scrape 30%. CORD needed 840K votes to beat uhuru in 2013. Voter apathy cannot account for this chunk so CORD needs to out register Jubilee by 1.5M and also get out to vote in the upper 80s in all Cord zones. as for now Jubilee sits in a very good position

Who told you Kikuyu's are prepared to vote in Ruto in 2022 ?
After the times kabogo and that Naivasha Njoroge guy were
yap yapping telling Ruto not to expect kiuk votes in 2022,

An "internal" agreement was crafted that kiuks should not yap yap about
not electing Ruto in 2022 and instead reassure all how Ruto 2022
is a forgone conclusion.......until Uhuru is re-elected then people can
yap yap whatever they want 

[RV Pundit]

That yapping will have consequence for 1m kikuyu diaspora and their economic interest in the rift. Kikuyus have boxed themselves in. Not voting Ruto is equivalent to declaring war. The war kalenjin are confident of winning. This is big difference with Kalonzo or Raila yapping.

An "internal" agreement was crafted that kiuks should not yap yap about
not electing Ruto in 2022 and instead reassure all how Ruto 2022
is a forgone conclusion.......until Uhuru is re-elected then people can
yap yap whatever they want 

[Globalcitizen12]

what if Kikuyus in diaspora vote for ruto and mainland goes for someone else? will there be repercussions