Raila in Western - Matungu

[Simanova]

Donors

Looks like the 2017 campaign is already on.  Where is Raila getting his campaign money?

[RV Pundit]

Where is Amos Wako btw? Marende I know is Jubilee but Wako? Western with it's 17 subtribes will be hard nut to unite. Bungoma - Jubilee might sneak there - if 1/3 of Bukusu who support Ken Lusaka works with Tachoni (Webuye East & West I think) and of course Sabaot of Mt Elgon with 2 mps - Ken Lusaka has a chance against Ford-K Wetangula group. ODM is dead as dodo in Bungoma - only leader there is Khangati. When you go to Busia - it bit tricky - Tesos have little to do with Luhyas - but Sospeter being a governor thanks to Raila "holding" down the more populous Marachis, Samia & Banyalas -that I think is the beef Busia leaders have with Raila-- look like come 2017 has to choose btw Teso & the rest. Coming to Kakamega - Mumias have serious beet with Raila (although Raila claims to have wanga ancestry -) - He'll get the Oparanya people in Butere - and has to contend with fireband Khawale for east of Kakamega tribes. Vihiga - apart from Luanda -- banyalas - likes of Otichillo of Map center Kasarani  - i think Maragoli remain forever indebted to Mudavadi father - and Mudavadi the lazy one - will continue to reap from the densely populated ridges of Maragoli & Tachonis. Lugari & Kitale - plus diaspora Luhyas - in Nairobi - are likely to identify with ODM than the rest.

And which leader has he by passed bro?

He was along with ALL the ODM MPs in Vihiga ( Omulele and Ottichilo)
He had the governor and MPs from Busia
and he is with local leaders including MPs in Mumias (plus governor who is busy organizing for Kakamega).

Don't believe the media.

What Raila decided is NOT to promote any leader and appear to be endorsing that one against his opponents in ODM. Note that it was one of the issues raised by the MPs Namwamba tried to hoodwink. Raila accepted that appearances can be deceptive and hence the new arrangement.

If I were Raila I would not ignore RV this time. I think there are more votes to get there now that Ruto's magic has waned.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

BTW Nation TV, Radio, Newspapers and KTN along with KBC are repeating that the above rally was CANCELLED!

Just to show the contradictions, one of them then cites a drunken heckler and ignores the other speakers. The Nation list of those attended is tailored to ignore Luhya leaders in the entourage and cast it as a "Luo affair".

Now I know such activities are therapeutic for TNA and some URP but they do not change the reality on the ground. Kakamega (including Mumias where we shall get rid of Washiali), Busia and Vihiga are ODM. Bungoma is 3/4 ODM but could become 100% if Wetangula bolts. Jubilee should accept that today or keep wasting money

Incidentally MPs report that Ruto seems to be short of cash. They did not get their regular stipends. Looks like TNA has shut the money taps for a while. Could be the debacle with Ababu.

I agree that the media is probably working overtime for the jubilant. I still consider the Luhya vote essentially Raila's to lose.  In 2016, most people understand that there are only two ways to power.  Raila and whatever other group happens to be there.

[Simanova]

Pictures from the "Cancelled" Mumias Rally

[Simanova]

Pundit

It is a pity that you would ask where Amos Wako is now and not during the IEBC demos. We know Amos and we do not expect him at such events.

I have no idea why you mention Marende. But now that you did, let me clarify one thing: Most of the politicians you could think of got their power from Raila and not vice versa. Marende was a nobody before he was elected to MP and later Speaker. His moral turpitude and depravity caused him to become more of a liability and we were happy to see him relocate to Jubilee. I personally hope Jubilee will deploy him to sink votes for them because then we will not need to shore up the areas he will campaign in as we shall get automatic votes.

Is it the same Bungoma where Jubilee sponsored a by-election and LOST with a bigger margin than the real election? Keep dreaming about Bungoma. The New Governor of Bungoma will be Khang'ati. Tell me you don't find Lusaka a retard and I will worry about your own abilities. Ken Lusaka was already in bad shape. But the move to Jubilee has killed him. If you were willing to pay attention I would liken that to an MP in Kalenjin land moving to contest on an ODM ticket in 2013. What would be the chances bro? But its months away lets bet on Lusaka. If he wins collect 1000 Usd from me (to be paid via Veritas). I can up it at your choice anytime.
 
ODM is dead in Bungoma? Why do you think Wetangula came to CORD? We have a small problem when it comes to ODM supporters in Bungoma who do not want Wetangula. They are substantial.

I can only laugh at what you say about Tesos. I will not comment.

Why do the Wanga have beef with Raila? They have been voting for him regularly. I'll wait to hear about your "beef".

I have already commented on Kakamega in detail elsewhere. It is ODM territory and if there is dissent it goes to FORD K not Jubilee.

Vihiga is ODM territory. MaDVD is not going to scrap 5K votes this time round. The law of diminishing returns has caught up with him. Nobody believes he has a chance. In 2013 he was DPM. Today you are better than him. The problem with making people get used to handouts is that they figure out when to dump you. Jubilee may give him some Eurobond but I would expect him to take care of his own debts and expensive family. So that would be money in a deep bottomless pit.

Pay heed to the anger against Uhuru bro. Otherwise you will be caught unawares.

Where is Amos Wako btw? Marende I know is Jubilee but Wako? Western with it's 17 subtribes will be hard nut to unite. Bungoma - Jubilee might sneak there - if 1/3 of Bukusu who support Ken Lusaka works with Tachoni (Webuye East & West I think) and of course Sabaot of Mt Elgon with 2 mps - Ken Lusaka has a chance against Ford-K Wetangula group. ODM is dead as dodo in Bungoma - only leader there is Khangati. When you go to Busia - it bit tricky - Tesos have little to do with Luhyas - but Sospeter being a governor thanks to Raila "holding" down the more populous Marachis, Samia & Banyalas -that I think is the beef Busia leaders have with Raila-- look like come 2017 has to choose btw Teso & the rest. Coming to Kakamega - Mumias have serious beet with Raila (although Raila claims to have wanga ancestry -) - He'll get the Oparanya people in Butere - and has to contend with fireband Khawale for east of Kakamega tribes. Vihiga - apart from Luanda -- banyalas - likes of Otichillo of Map center Kasarani  - i think Maragoli remain forever indebted to Mudavadi father - and Mudavadi the lazy one - will continue to reap from the densely populated ridges of Maragoli & Tachonis. Lugari & Kitale - plus diaspora Luhyas - in Nairobi - are likely to identify with ODM than the rest.

[RV Pundit]

We will go through severally.A year - ago - western were hostile towards Jubilee - now Jubilee has soften the ground -Mumias & Panpaper bailout from NARA era & appointment of many luhyas in parastals have greatly helped- I expect they'll do really well. Mukisari Kombo/Wamalwa/Ken Lusaka are going to split Bukusu. Raila supporting Teso in Busia - will not be without consquences from Banyala/Samia/Marachi. Vihiga - I just don't buy that - they gave maDVD 4% in 13 and he was a national joke as he is now. Khawale & Wetangula are "snakes" who can bite you anytime - don't go to bed with them - what is in it for Wetangula? Duale position -He'll cut a deal with Jubilee faster than you say mulembe.

Pundit

It is a pity that you would ask where Amos Wako is now and not during the IEBC demos. We know Amos and we do not expect him at such events.

I have no idea why you mention Marende. But now that you did, let me clarify one thing: Most of the politicians you could think of got their power from Raila and not vice versa. Marende was a nobody before he was elected to MP and later Speaker. His moral turpitude and depravity caused him to become more of a liability and we were happy to see him relocate to Jubilee. I personally hope Jubilee will deploy him to sink votes for them because then we will not need to shore up the areas he will campaign in as we shall get automatic votes.

Is it the same Bungoma where Jubilee sponsored a by-election and LOST with a bigger margin than the real election? Keep dreaming about Bungoma. The New Governor of Bungoma will be Khang'ati. Tell me you don't find Lusaka a retard and I will worry about your own abilities. Ken Lusaka was already in bad shape. But the move to Jubilee has killed him. If you were willing to pay attention I would liken that to an MP in Kalenjin land moving to contest on an ODM ticket in 2013. What would be the chances bro? But its months away lets bet on Lusaka. If he wins collect 1000 Usd from me (to be paid via Veritas). I can up it at your choice anytime.
 
ODM is dead in Bungoma? Why do you think Wetangula came to CORD? We have a small problem when it comes to ODM supporters in Bungoma who do not want Wetangula. They are substantial.

I can only laugh at what you say about Tesos. I will not comment.

Why do the Wanga have beef with Raila? They have been voting for him regularly. I'll wait to hear about your "beef".

I have already commented on Kakamega in detail elsewhere. It is ODM territory and if there is dissent it goes to FORD K not Jubilee.

Vihiga is ODM territory. MaDVD is not going to scrap 5K votes this time round. The law of diminishing returns has caught up with him. Nobody believes he has a chance. In 2013 he was DPM. Today you are better than him. The problem with making people get used to handouts is that they figure out when to dump you. Jubilee may give him some Eurobond but I would expect him to take care of his own debts and expensive family. So that would be money in a deep bottomless pit.

Pay heed to the anger against Uhuru bro. Otherwise you will be caught unawares.

Where is Amos Wako btw? Marende I know is Jubilee but Wako? Western with it's 17 subtribes will be hard nut to unite. Bungoma - Jubilee might sneak there - if 1/3 of Bukusu who support Ken Lusaka works with Tachoni (Webuye East & West I think) and of course Sabaot of Mt Elgon with 2 mps - Ken Lusaka has a chance against Ford-K Wetangula group. ODM is dead as dodo in Bungoma - only leader there is Khangati. When you go to Busia - it bit tricky - Tesos have little to do with Luhyas - but Sospeter being a governor thanks to Raila "holding" down the more populous Marachis, Samia & Banyalas -that I think is the beef Busia leaders have with Raila-- look like come 2017 has to choose btw Teso & the rest. Coming to Kakamega - Mumias have serious beet with Raila (although Raila claims to have wanga ancestry -) - He'll get the Oparanya people in Butere - and has to contend with fireband Khawale for east of Kakamega tribes. Vihiga - apart from Luanda -- banyalas - likes of Otichillo of Map center Kasarani  - i think Maragoli remain forever indebted to Mudavadi father - and Mudavadi the lazy one - will continue to reap from the densely populated ridges of Maragoli & Tachonis. Lugari & Kitale - plus diaspora Luhyas - in Nairobi - are likely to identify with ODM than the rest.

[Simanova]

1. I have to know what it is that Jubilee has done to change Western. Panpaper? Get serious Pundit. Majority of people did not want that stinking factory revived. It brought no benefits. They have no raw materials to sell and the jobs are few compared to the damage to their houses and crops which it refuses to pay for.

Those in the know are also questioning the "revival". It was a net sell of the asset to Uhuru's indian friends. That you call it some kind of rescue is testimony of how deep Jubilee propaganda has taken you. Fortunately most Kenyans have inoculated themselves against it.

Mumias bailout? Well go there and see if there is any change. All know that Mumias is being brought down so it is bought on the cheap. The same people who licensed multiple sugar companies in Western are laying waiting. Mumias is dead unless Raila comes to power fast. Sugar barons will use the money they get from importing cheap sugar to buy it up. Mumias also (unlike Panpaper) owns a lot of land. Most survived Kidero and is another target.

Musikari Kombo and Wamalwa! I laughed so loud reading it. When will Musikari win an election in Western? Eunice is a good showman but elections? No. He will be walloped in Trans Nzoia. Just wondering why is Jubilee buying crap from these self seekers? Eunice, MaDVD and Kombo belong together in a dust bin. Lusaka??  You are full of jokes.

Raila is NOT supporting the Teso. The Teso fanatically support Raila. Tesos and Luos .... get it???

There is no animosity between Luhyas and Tesos. Positions are dished out by negotiated democracy means. After two terms, a Luhya will be Governor and a Teso Deputy. The minority went first - something you should have borrowed in respect of your deal with Kikuyus. So there you lose again.

MaDVD lost Sabatia in 2002. Remember that? Study the 2013 election results (however imperfect). Take in to consideration that Raila and ODM did not campaign in Vihiga. Yet ODM got 2 MPs and I CORD MP. CORD has therefore MORE MPs in Vihiga than MaDVD. Both Sabatia and Vihiga lacked strong candidates.

Khalwale will follow the people. However we know if he loses to Oparanya he will defect. We are also not sure of Wetangula. He is a PNU man remember. His support is limited to Bungoma. If he crosses to Jubilee that would be his MaDVD moment in 2002. No worries there.

Frankly I am only hoping Kalonzo does not bolt.

We will go through severally.A year - ago - western were hostile towards Jubilee - now Jubilee has soften the ground -Mumias & Panpaper bailout from NARA era & appointment of many luhyas in parastals have greatly helped- I expect they'll do really well.

Mukisari Kombo/Wamalwa/Ken Lusaka are going to split Bukusu.

Raila supporting Teso in Busia - will not be without consquences from Banyala/Samia/Marachi.

Vihiga - I just don't buy that - they gave maDVD 4% in 13 and he was a national joke as he is now.

Khawale & Wetangula are "snakes" who can bite you anytime - don't go to bed with them - what is in it for Wetangula? Duale position -He'll cut a deal with Jubilee faster than you say mulembe.