To Simanova, For Raila

[RV Pundit]

Well I guess this is politics where everyone see what they like.ODM in 2007 had nearly 50% of mps in national assembly...in 2013 the number had come down to less than 30%..after Ruto took most of the rest to URP. Now looking at how MPs are decamping..including Otuomas/Namwamba/Taveta Senator/Mungaro & group/most of Gusii Mps...I  see ODM loosing another 10-15% to drop 15-20%. I just don't see how they will be able to wade off UhuRuto assault...considering Jubilee is so much ahead (now well into merged party with well known line up). ODM will be lucky get 70mps next time. I'd put the figure around 50mps in the party that was biggest less than 10yrs ago. It all down to Raila failed leadership.

Mmh talking about Duale...I think his seat of Majority Leader can become available if somebody was to bring Kalonzo kind of numbers. But that will complicate 2022 for Ruto...so Duale keep the seat.

I don't get it. ODM won in Kajiado and then the victory does not count? And did you just say Jubilee rigged? Are you not the one who was praising Jubilee's impeccable nominations only yesterday?

CORD wins a seat in Maasai - which is a measure of its popularity and you want me to discard that and listen to your punditry about CORD being dead? I seem to recall you predicting Jubliee sweep of Kajiado, Malindi and Kericho. CORD stayed out of Kericho and now going by what you confess, Salat was right that Jubilee (Minus KANU) stole the seat from KANU.

How is the support waning when CORD wins elections despite Eurobond cash? Do you have some other secret method of measuring support outside elections?

Uhuru has been campaigning brother:

1. He camped in Mombasa with brown Eurobond envelopes. He organized a by election to test his "victory".CORD gave him a bloody nose,
2. He then went to Kakamega but his love for foreign trips saved him the humiliation. He dished out a few brown envelopes but mostly targeted MaDVDs supporters who lined up and got their Eurobonds. Kakamega remains solid (as you admit)
3. He then went to NEP and could have been a threat except he fenced in people, reminding them of the days DCs used to fence them in for forceful meetings. He lost badly and is now revenging on the Garissa Governor with trumped up charges. His man Duale is being retired for his troubles
4. Uhuru then went to camp in Ukambani with Campaign Chap Chap. Needless to say Jubilee is getting zilch from there. They dished out Eurobonds to MPs. Then they detained Muthama. Ruto is a gift that keeps giving CORD.

[Simanova]

Its not just wishing Duale to keep the seat. Duale has no support in his home area. He has been seen as siding with those oppressing Kenyan Somalis and Somalis in general. I would be shocked if he makes it back.

Ruto left but we got Wiper and FORD K. I have not looked at the numbers closely but will.

CORD lost many seats because of not running joint nominations. We had ODM running against Wiper etc. That will not happen again.

Well I guess this is politics where everyone see what they like.ODM in 2007 had nearly 50% of mps in national assembly...in 2013 the number had come down to less than 30%..after Ruto took most of the rest to URP.

I will look at the figures but I still believe had CORD held joint nominations, the damage by Ruto would have been limited.

Now looking at how MPs are decamping..including Otuomas/Namwamba/Taveta Senator/Mungaro & group/most of Gusii Mps...I  see ODM loosing another 10-15% to drop 15-20%.

Namwamba: Will not retain his seat on a non ODM ticket. Take it to the bank. Julia has been running her briefcase party for almost 20 years. She couldn't even win her own seat.
 Otuoma is as light weight as they come. He wants to be Governor. He will lose both
Taveta Governorship Will remain ODM. Naomi Shabani stole her seat and she is running away seeing the tide. Tell Uhuru to return the land stolen by his father and mother and Jubilee may win something over there.
Mung'aro Pundit, If you were not my friend of many years, I would laugh at this. First Mung'aro is leaving parliament. He knew we were after that seat by any means. He wants to become governor and he will not make it. However we know his game plan. He started off as a Councillor and now wants to retire. He needs the Eurobond to retire. He is not a concern.

I just don't see how they will be able to wade off UhuRuto assault...considering Jubilee is so much ahead (now well into merged party with well known line up). ODM will be lucky get 70mps next time. I'd put the figure around 50mps in the party that was biggest less than 10yrs ago. It all down to Raila failed leadership.

Jubilee has Eurobond. And you know what, we are not scared. Trust me.

As for popular support, they have zilch. The MPs taking money dare not openly support Jubilee in their areas. Ask Washiali how he had to escape through a banana plantation when he mentioned Jubilee. Let Jubilee dish out money. Like I told you, many MPs are seeking permission to collect Eurobonds.  As for Jubilee being ahead? Sorry bro. Open your eyes. Mag projects amid massive corruption and unemployment.

Mmh talking about Duale...I think his seat of Majority Leader can become available if somebody was to bring Kalonzo kind of numbers. But that will complicate 2022 for Ruto...so Duale keep the seat.

Ruto is turning out to be a very good ally of CORD.

[RV Pundit]

Don't conflate ODM with CORD. In any case overally CORD have less than ODM of 2007. And Wiper is not sitting pretty..with Mutua's ChapChap and Jubilee inroads. Jubilee will do very well in Coast, Gussi & of course the small tribes this time round..and will basically ran away with NEP. You're  may not be aware but Jubilee is busy building the road from Garissa to Mandera...they are about half way. I don't see CORD surviving in NEP. Maybe Migori's Junet is confusing you.  In Luhya land....the game-plan seem pretty the same...you don't vote for CORD neither Jubilee....so Namwamba and his groupies will get few seats in Labour Party...UDF will get few...ANC will get few...FORD-K few..ODM a few..and new ford kenya a few....Jubilee will sneak with a couple. Raila's ODM last man standing now is Oparanya in entire LuhyaLand...facing off with nasty Khawale who doesn't take prisoners...doesn't look pretty for a party that count Luhya land as it support base.

Its not just wishing Duale to keep the seat. Duale has no support in his home area. He has been seen as siding with those oppressing Kenyan Somalis and Somalis in general. I would be shocked if he makes it back.

Ruto left but we got Wiper and FORD K. I have not looked at the numbers closely but will.

CORD lost many seats because of not running joint nominations. We had ODM running against Wiper etc. That will not happen again.

Well I guess this is politics where everyone see what they like.ODM in 2007 had nearly 50% of mps in national assembly...in 2013 the number had come down to less than 30%..after Ruto took most of the rest to URP.

I will look at the figures but I still believe had CORD held joint nominations, the damage by Ruto would have been limited.

Now looking at how MPs are decamping..including Otuomas/Namwamba/Taveta Senator/Mungaro & group/most of Gusii Mps...I  see ODM loosing another 10-15% to drop 15-20%.

Namwamba: Will not retain his seat on a non ODM ticket. Take it to the bank. Julia has been running her briefcase party for almost 20 years. She couldn't even win her own seat.
 Otuoma is as light weight as they come. He wants to be Governor. He will lose both
Taveta Governorship Will remain ODM. Naomi Shabani stole her seat and she is running away seeing the tide. Tell Uhuru to return the land stolen by his father and mother and Jubilee may win something over there.
Mung'aro Pundit, If you were not my friend of many years, I would laugh at this. First Mung'aro is leaving parliament. He knew we were after that seat by any means. He wants to become governor and he will not make it. However we know his game plan. He started off as a Councillor and now wants to retire. He needs the Eurobond to retire. He is not a concern.

I just don't see how they will be able to wade off UhuRuto assault...considering Jubilee is so much ahead (now well into merged party with well known line up). ODM will be lucky get 70mps next time. I'd put the figure around 50mps in the party that was biggest less than 10yrs ago. It all down to Raila failed leadership.

Jubilee has Eurobond. And you know what, we are not scared. Trust me.

As for popular support, they have zilch. The MPs taking money dare not openly support Jubilee in their areas. Ask Washiali how he had to escape through a banana plantation when he mentioned Jubilee. Let Jubilee dish out money. Like I told you, many MPs are seeking permission to collect Eurobonds.  As for Jubilee being ahead? Sorry bro. Open your eyes. Mag projects amid massive corruption and unemployment.

Mmh talking about Duale...I think his seat of Majority Leader can become available if somebody was to bring Kalonzo kind of numbers. But that will complicate 2022 for Ruto...so Duale keep the seat.

Ruto is turning out to be a very good ally of CORD.

[Simanova]

Don't conflate ODM with CORD. In any case overally CORD have less than ODM of 2007.

ODM is now part of CORD. As we approach 2017 it will be more CORD and less ODM, Wiper or FORD Kenya. The challenge we have now is of course what happens to the third Principal who fails to get the ticket or DP. But that will sort itself out.

And Wiper is not sitting pretty..with Mutua's ChapChap and Jubilee inroads.

I thought you knew Mutua is retiring. He is linning up his pension and preparing for a long stint in the courts on corruption charges. I suspect he will dust up his European/ American passport and relocate. You don't for a moment believe Mutua has votes in Machakos bro?

Jubilee will do very well in Coast,

Where will these votes come from? Malindi? CORD has been weakest in Malindi and we still kept the seat. How on earth would you imagine you would get votes in MRC dominated areas where EJK is ongoing? Good luck

Gussi & of course the small tribes this time round..

Uhuru banks on Nyachae. The idea is to bring out Matiang'i, Nyachae etc. My advice, let Matiang'i complete his brief in the Ministry of Education and by complete I mean he is the only minister who has not completed his campaign finance quarter. But politics.. no. Charles Nyachae will win nothing in Gusii land. Jubilee as usual may win one odd seat here and there thanks to the compley clan politics over there but not on the scale you are imagining.

and will basically ran away with NEP.

Not a chance. First stop harassing somalis and second, reduce the migration of Kikuyus to the area and lastly, reduce Kikuyunization of jobs and land then you have a chance.

You're  may not be aware but Jubilee is busy building the road from Garissa to Mandera...they are about half way. I don't see CORD surviving in NEP.

How many governments have fallen while building major projects?  Some of these come lately projects are serving to remind NEP folks just how previous governments have discriminated against them. It does not help when the contractors, employees etc are all from one tribe and you know which.

Maybe Migori's Junet is confusing you.

Junet is a Luo MP. Luoland and Luhyaland are places where you can make it to anything anytime regardless of your tribe. Any Luo MPs in RV? We offered to make Uhuru Kisumu MP in 2007 if he joined us, remember?

In Luhya land....the game-plan seem pretty the same...you don't vote for CORD neither Jubilee....so Namwamba and his groupies will get few seats in Labour Party...UDF will get few...ANC will get few...FORD-K few..ODM a few..and new ford kenya a few....Jubilee will sneak with a couple. Raila's ODM last man standing now is Oparanya in entire LuhyaLand...facing off with nasty Khawale who doesn't take prisoners...doesn't look pretty for a party that count Luhya land as it support base.

Sorry pundit. Busia is ODM / CORD. Namwamba and Otuoma are taking your money bure.

[MOON Ki]

MoonKi

There is no way you can compare Jubilee High way robbers to CORD. Never in the history of this country has there been such a thieving government. The thievery is both brobdingnagian and perverse. It is the only time I have witnessed the sum stolen increasing on a daily basis and by the tens of millions.

Whatever government CORD forms will be less corrupt - even if only because the records set are so low one has to go below ground to reach their tails. If Jubilee wins another term it will be the end of this country as we know it. That can not be allowed to happen.

Can't argue with that.    CORD hasn't had opportunities to have a real go at the public till, or engage in serious financial mischief ... although Caroli gave a hint of what can be done in the "right" circumstances.

True, Jubilee's time has been one of plunder.   Amusingly, they have been helped by the "theft-proof" computer technology.   But corruption issues have nothing to do with how people vote in Kenya, and many Kenyans would like nothing better than an opportunity to steal too.    If they aren't among the thieves, then they will look for a "secondary appointment", whence the "we need to join/work-with the government so that our areas too can develop" lines.   

I like that one.    There are many "Kenyan" stories in that book!

[Empedocles]

Simanova,

I gave you a way of getting the numbers you need from Wikipedia's edit history.

Please avail them as I really didn't know the 2002 - 2013 numbers had changed so drastically as you mentioned.

And no, this is not making fun of you. I'm genuinely interested.

[Simanova]

There were hundreds of edits mostly deleting information. I am going through step by step. It is 2007 though. The link you provided is for 2002 whose figures are available.

Simanova,

I gave you a way of getting the numbers you need from Wikipedia's edit history.

Please avail them as I really didn't know the 2002 - 2013 numbers had changed so drastically as you mentioned.

And no, this is not making fun of you. I'm genuinely interested.

[Real P]

ODM is the most democratic party in Kenya. I understand that you want this enhanced and no doubt it will. I just hope other political parties will follow suit by holding direct popular elections. Name any other party that has done that or as frequently as ODM has done.

[Real P]

CORD has been mobilizing members to register. We are hampered by lack of ID cards.

The IEBC has been discriminating when it comes to voter registration with more resources being deployed in Central than other areas of the country. Hence we are demanding the reform of that body. We are also moving to widen what qualifies as ID card and whether it is even necessary for elections. Why have the BMR and then deny someone the right to vote? Other countries have used ID cards issued by the Electoral body. E.g Sierra Leone.