Uhuru Trip to Ukambani "Failed"

[Simanova]

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[Pajero]

That was expected,all his trips to opposition areas have never yielded anything,remember camping at the coast for one month hoping to win malindi byelections.

[RV Pundit]

At least they are trying to woo those that didn't vote for them and gaining some ground. Now Raila is busy campaigning in places he won....rather than trying to gain ground in places he didn't.

[Pajero]

What grounds are jubilee gaining??? what barometer are you using???the only grounds jubilee has gained are corruption and unfulfilled pledges.

[RV Pundit]

Indicators such as number of western, gusii, coastal and ukambani lMp/Senators/Governorss who have decamped, plus other leaders. That shows the ground is shifting for CORD and Jubilee are making progress. Not that many MPS can be suicidal even if they love money. They are moving to Jubilee because they know they hostility against Jubilee in their backyard has dissipated.

Jubilee basically is doing it job. They have maybe 70% of MPs. Gov agenda in parliament is moving on seamlessly. Leaving Raila and CORD begging for talks outside parliament.

Never before (even in Moi's 90) has parliament been so one-sided the opposition are basically kaput. All this thanks to the tireless effort of never sleeping WSR..who is giving CORD hell as moonlight writting his phd

What grounds are jubilee gaining??? what barometer are you using???the only grounds jubilee has gained are corruption and unfulfilled pledges.

[Pajero]

I see,so if an mp moves then  he /she moves with his/her people????????

[RV Pundit]

You can choose to see it that way. I see it as indicator of things moving. MP is representative and definitely has few people around him.

I see,so if an mp moves then  he /she moves with his/her people????????

[Simanova]

I want to laugh at this but I have lots of respect for you.

Let me repeat Jubilee will never get any more votes in Western than what it got in the last elections. Uhuru destroyed his chances mostly by ethnic appointments. That thing has ruined Uhuru in Western. He rushed to try to correct it but he was hampered by two problem:

1. He appointed political rejects thus annoying the people who had thrown them out (majority) and may be pleasing the minority that supported the losers(???)
2. He still included a large number of Kikuyus in the appointment list and the anger and concerns over that overshadowed what he was trying to do

Most of jubilees programs in Western are seen as designed to benefit Uhuru's tribesmen, Indians or some outsider. This has been a source of perennial anger when first it was the Indians (giving rise to Shikuku sentiments), then it was the Kikuyus replacing the the few who moved up the food chain.

I just can't see the votes you allude to in Western. I meet Kanga'ta and he is already as good as elected Governor of Bungoma. The incumbent knows and is busy polishing his retirement package. He got through last time by hiding his Jubilee identity - even denying it. He got careless and let it out.

In Vihiga Akaranga just hosted Raila. He sent his sister to support Raila in this Ababu thing. He has never made the mistake of identifying with Jubilee. He knows the price.

Busia is ODM territory. Namwamba is cashing in as we predicted. I made no secret of the fact that the bastard was simply increasing his value to Jubilee. You can verify that.

About the Coast: Did you forget CORD just beat off Jubilee in Malindi? MPs are looking for money and Jubilee has Euro Bond loot. They will take as much as they can and then shamelessly deny defecting. Some like Mung'aro could retire willingly by attempting to be governor Kilifi. In short Pundit Jubilee has no vote at the Coast.

Raila needs to consolidate his support by making sure he rallies the traditional areas of support. He cannot even ignore Nyanza. He went to Nyamira after Jubilee attempted to penetrate it. He has rattled Abubu the Mole who had assured Uhuruto that Western was no longer CORDed. You can see his reaction when the rousing Presidential Welcome Raila got in a County whose Governor is not ODM.

Indicators such as number of western, gusii, coastal and ukambani lMp/Senators/Governorss who have decamped, plus other leaders. That shows the ground is shifting for CORD and Jubilee are making progress. Not that many MPS can be suicidal even if they love money. They are moving to Jubilee because they know they hostility against Jubilee in their backyard has dissipated.

Jubilee basically is doing it job. They have maybe 70% of MPs. Gov agenda in parliament is moving on seamlessly. Leaving Raila and CORD begging for talks outside parliament.

Never before (even in Moi's 90) has parliament been so one-sided the opposition are basically kaput. All this thanks to the tireless effort of never sleeping WSR..who is giving CORD hell as moonlight writting his phd

What grounds are jubilee gaining??? what barometer are you using???the only grounds jubilee has gained are corruption and unfulfilled pledges.

[RV Pundit]

Seem Western is about to do what Western does. Splinter into many parties. Jubilee strategy if they cannot get the votes is to make sure Raila doesn't get it too. So MaDVD & Nabwabwa will be doing their thing.

So still advantage Jubillee. Make Raila and Kalonzo sweat in their strongholds.

Raila is going to get schooled once again and this time the margin will be so big he better be thinking of plan C.

I want to laugh at this but I have lots of respect for you.

Let me repeat Jubilee will never get any more votes in Western than what it got in the last elections. Uhuru destroyed his chances mostly by ethnic appointments. That thing has ruined Uhuru in Western. He rushed to try to correct it but he was hampered by two problem:

1. He appointed political rejects thus annoying the people who had thrown them out (majority) and may be pleasing the minority that supported the losers(???)
2. He still included a large number of Kikuyus in the appointment list and the anger and concerns over that overshadowed what he was trying to do

Most of jubilees programs in Western are seen as designed to benefit Uhuru's tribesmen, Indians or some outsider. This has been a source of perennial anger when first it was the Indians (giving rise to Shikuku sentiments), then it was the Kikuyus replacing the the few who moved up the food chain.

I just can't see the votes you allude to in Western. I meet Kanga'ta and he is already as good as elected Governor of Bungoma. The incumbent knows and is busy polishing his retirement package. He got through last time by hiding his Jubilee identity - even denying it. He got careless and let it out.

In Vihiga Akaranga just hosted Raila. He sent his sister to support Raila in this Ababu thing. He has never made the mistake of identifying with Jubilee. He knows the price.

Busia is ODM territory. Namwamba is cashing in as we predicted. I made no secret of the fact that the bastard was simply increasing his value to Jubilee. You can verify that.

About the Coast: Did you forget CORD just beat off Jubilee in Malindi? MPs are looking for money and Jubilee has Euro Bond loot. They will take as much as they can and then shamelessly deny defecting. Some like Mung'aro could retire willingly by attempting to be governor Kilifi. In short Pundit Jubilee has no vote at the Coast.

Raila needs to consolidate his support by making sure he rallies the traditional areas of support. He cannot even ignore Nyanza. He went to Nyamira after Jubilee attempted to penetrate it. He has rattled Abubu the Mole who had assured Uhuruto that Western was no longer CORDed. You can see his reaction when the rousing Presidential Welcome Raila got in a County whose Governor is not ODM.

[Simanova]

[Simanova]

Pundit

Could you provide a breakdown of parties per province for the last three general elections so we can examine this unique western or Luhya trait?

Seem Western is about to do what Western does. Splinter into many parties. Jubilee strategy if they cannot get the votes is to make sure Raila doesn't get it too. So MaDVD & Nabwabwa will be doing their thing.

So still advantage Jubillee. Make Raila and Kalonzo sweat in their strongholds.

Raila is going to get schooled once again and this time the margin will be so big he better be thinking of plan C.

[RV Pundit]

For what end. Western has always done their thing. In 90s when we were in opposition with you; they'd vote for Moi. Only in 2002 did they differ MaDVD. In 2007 when we were in ODM; they would have blown the thing beyond kibaki rigging margin; but Bukusu voted for Kibaki to a man. In 2013 Maragoli took off a precious 4% that would have made election close btw Jubilee & CORD...maybe the supreme court and everyone else would have said..go for second round...this is too close.

Now as you speak...Raila has maybe 5mps...the rest are sleeping and eating in Ruto's karen home.

I really pity Raila...he was trying to come up with press conference...and he couldn't get one recognisable MP in that press statement from his office in capitol hill

This is new face of ODM in Western!! tragic.

Ababu who is Sec General of ODM (something Raila bend over to give) is basically on his way to Labour while MaDVD is doing is thing in Maragoli land --and rest are with Ruto .

Wetangula...basically has three Mps and yet want to be a Raila equal. What kind of delusion is that.

In short it a big mistake to go to political war with western as your front! They make all the noise but come the d-day they go MIA on you. Ababu is perhaps a classic example ...you give the guy Sec General..and he proceed to stab you in the back. The same way MaDVD did with Raila....eat from Raila till the last minute and ran to Kibaki. Ruto seem to have stopped him in his track when he tried to eat in Jubilee...

Pundit
Could you provide a breakdown of parties per province for the last three general elections so we can examine this unique western or Luhya trait?

[Simanova]

Pundit

You are making the classical mistake of assuming the loyalty or disloyalty of an elected or nominated MP indicates the likely support of his people.

Here is the outcome of the 2007 elections in Bukusu dominated Bungoma. ODM dominated the parliamentary vote in Bungoma. One seat was clearly stolen by Moses Wetangula. The other went to someone who benefited from popular anger as a result of irregular nominations. The PNU point-man in Bungoma lost his own seat to ODM.

I simply don't get it.

You still think Mudavadi is a force to recon with? That makes me laugh more than you think Ababu Namwamba poses any danger to CORD or ODM. Next to Siaya is the second most natural habitat of ODM = Busia. Let us not even go there.

Namwamba as you pointed out is Raila's mistake. He had zero support in ODM and came out as an arrogant embodiment of uppity. His anger is derived from his gambling that the IEBC protests will fail and he can emerge saying "I told you so". We are all very happy that he has come out for the fake he was. I have never wavered in my anger with that man and Raila's failure to see through the social climber's trickery. We shall now take him down.

How many votes really did Mudavadi get in Vihiga - a county ODM carried? I have said before that Raila made a blunder of not campaigning in Vihiga in the same belief that Mudavadi had fanatical support there. Sorry the man who kicked him out of parliament in 2002 is the Governor and the governor's sister is the Women's Rep.

The rest of the MPs are with Ruto? Not all though and those few are there for the money Pundit. The people are and will remain ODM. Jubilee has no votes in Western and they better believe it. Perhaps if Ruto stood for the Presidency and revived the KANU alliance with Luhaland... that would be a challenge. Uhuru is simply not and we have figured it out.

For what end. Western has always done their thing. In 90s when we were in opposition with you; they'd vote for Moi. Only in 2002 did they differ MaDVD. In 2007 when we were in ODM; they would have blown the thing beyond kibaki rigging margin; but Bukusu voted for Kibaki to a man. In 2013 Maragoli took off a precious 4% that would have made election close btw Jubilee & CORD...maybe the supreme court and everyone else would have said..go for second round...this is too close.

Now as you speak...Raila has maybe 5mps...the rest are sleeping and eating in Ruto's karen home.

I really pity Raila...he was trying to come up with press conference...and he couldn't get one recognisable MP in that press statement from his office in capitol hill

This is new face of ODM in Western!! tragic.

Ababu who is Sec General of ODM (something Raila bend over to give) is basically on his way to Labour while MaDVD is doing is thing in Maragoli land --and rest are with Ruto .

Wetangula...basically has three Mps and yet want to be a Raila equal. What kind of delusion is that.

In short it a big mistake to go to political war with western as your front! They make all the noise but come the d-day they go MIA on you. Ababu is perhaps a classic example ...you give the guy Sec General..and he proceed to stab you in the back. The same way MaDVD did with Raila....eat from Raila till the last minute and ran to Kibaki. Ruto seem to have stopped him in his track when he tried to eat in Jubilee...

Pundit
Could you provide a breakdown of parties per province for the last three general elections so we can examine this unique western or Luhya trait?