Raila For Governor, Nairobi

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

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A chance to use his force of personality to fix the city, demonstrate his leadership, all the while pushing for total devolution.  Why won't he do that?

[RV Pundit]

He has been PM before and nothing really came out of it. Me think it time to bow out. He is competing with folks 20yrs younger than him.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

He has been PM before and nothing really came out of it. Me think it time to bow out. He is competing with folks 20yrs younger than him.

When he was PM he had to share power, enjoying mostly the short end of it.  It's not clear if he just gave up because of that and figured he might as well just eat while it lasts.

As governor, he would enjoy more clout.  And he could win it while watching reruns of his favorite TV shows.  Just by dint of his personality, he could rival the President.  It would give him a platform to sharpen himself for 2022. 

[Pajero]

Raila is eyeing presidency in 2017 ad 2022,he has very high chances.

[RV Pundit]

I doubt he has the energy to ran the city. I wish Nairobi could get a Mutua can do guy.I still insist Raila time came and went...with Kibaki regime. Raila has had all the time to sharpen and prepare himself...right from Moi's early 2000s when he joined gov...through narc...to NARA/Coalition gov..and all that time he has been UNDERWHELMING. Dr Sally Kosgey and Orengo describe his tenure as PM as been feckless and the man is simply unable to ran a shop. He is good agitator.

What Raila need to do is to get a job at AU or UN or any of those bodies....soft landing retirement post.

When he was PM he had to share power, enjoying mostly the short end of it.  It's not clear if he just gave up because of that and figured he might as well just eat while it lasts.

As governor, he would enjoy more clout.  And he could win it while watching reruns of his favorite TV shows.  Just by dint of his personality, he could rival the President.  It would give him a platform to sharpen himself for 2022. 

[RV Pundit]

His best chance was 2007...and he blew 2013...me think it downhill from now.

Raila is eyeing presidency in 2017 ad 2022,he has very high chances.

[Pajero]

Raila has massive following and will always emerge no 1 or 2 in any presidential contest.Railas best and last chance is 2022.FYI Raila is not soo keen in winning the 2017 elections because he knows incubents dont go home easily.His eye is fixed in 2022 where he will face a crowded pool of other contestants namely Peter Kenneth,William Ruto,Musalia Mudavadi,Kalonzo Musyoka,Issac Ruto,Hassan Joho,Gideon Moi,Peter Munya,Oparanya,Ojaamong among others.
It will be a Raila vs Peter Kenneth.Rest will oscalate around the two.Ruto and Kalonzo will switch places.Its a case of same monkeys different forests.

[MOON Ki]

Raila's use-by date: 2017

[Georgesoros]

Never say never. Kibaki was once written off.

[MOON Ki]

Raila could have learned some lessons in 2013. It appears he did not. 2017 is the last real chance he has, and he's already blown it.  Kenyans should just prepare for more rear-end tarimbo from Jubilee, which could be just the thing they need to wake them up.

[MOON Ki]

Miguna says the job is his.  He's already busy campaigning on Twitter.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Miguna says the job is his.  He's already busy campaigning on Twitter.

I can't think of a worse politician than Miguna.  Makau Mutua thinks he'd have trouble winning MCA IN Nyando, let alone Nairobi.  He can't get the Luos, Luhyas, Kambas or Kikuyu in Nairobi.  Where does he think his votes will come from?

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I doubt he has the energy to ran the city. I wish Nairobi could get a Mutua can do guy.I still insist Raila time came and went...with Kibaki regime. Raila has had all the time to sharpen and prepare himself...right from Moi's early 2000s when he joined gov...through narc...to NARA/Coalition gov..and all that time he has been UNDERWHELMING. Dr Sally Kosgey and Orengo describe his tenure as PM as been feckless and the man is simply unable to ran a shop. He is good agitator.

What Raila need to do is to get a job at AU or UN or any of those bodies....soft landing retirement post.

When he was PM he had to share power, enjoying mostly the short end of it.  It's not clear if he just gave up because of that and figured he might as well just eat while it lasts.

As governor, he would enjoy more clout.  And he could win it while watching reruns of his favorite TV shows.  Just by dint of his personality, he could rival the President.  It would give him a platform to sharpen himself for 2022. 

A Mutua for Nairobi is a pipe dream.  Nairobi loves its crooks.  The Kamandas, Waititus, Aladwas, Kideros...

[yulemsee]

Kalonzo is also getting old, the guy is 63, if Raila were to win in 2017 and/or 2022, Kalonzo is looking at becoming president at 74 or 79 an impossibility. So what does he do, he needs to put salt in cords engine and make Raila fail in 2017 so spectacularly that he won't be a contender in 2022. That would mean 2022 will be a Kalonzo Ruto duel where he stands a pretty good chance.
Well it may fail and Raila may still be strong in 2022, but without Kalonzo making bold moves, he will never be anything.

[Real P]

Raila could have learned some lessons in 2013. It appears he did not. 2017 is the last real chance he has, and he's already blown it.  Kenyans should just prepare for more rear-end tarimbo from Jubilee, which could be just the thing they need to wake them up.

Agreed. RAO has not learned any lessons of 2013 election loss. He never took any steps to encourage new voter registration in his strongholds the way he is encouraging weekly protests to push for the removal of IEBC commissioners. He did not lead a major voter drive, never stressed voter registration at the outset of the exercise, never tried and register younger supporters and disaffected Kenyans whom have been abandoned by Jubilee government. His grassroots movement never intensified its outreach and dispatched hundreds of his staff members and volunteers to counties with large percentages of unregistered CORD voters. This is just another ass whooping ready to happen again in 2017.

[Pajero]

You are mistaken,CORD leaning zones have more registered voters than jubilee leaning zones,just do your maths properly.Jubilee only has 2.7M votes in Rift valley,2.4 in central,1 M in Eastern & 0.8 in Nairobi totalling 7Million.
CORD on the other hand has 2.3 in Nyanza,1.2 in Eastern,1.7 in western,1.2 in coast,0.9 in Nairobi and 1 Million in Rift valley all totalling 8.3 million votes.

[RV Pundit]

That Raila best chance is 2017 doesn't make much sense to me. Uhuru has his coalition intact. WSR has already accepted to be his running mate and RV is intact in Jubilee. So Uhuru once again starts with "51%". Now CORD...poor CORD...they need to get everyone to the 49% and they still lose it.

Nothing has change significantly in terms of new voter numbers to alter anything.

Raila had 2007 all figured out...Kibaki rigged himself in brazenly..then got something after PEV..instead of building on that something...he destroyed it...and come 2013 he was in last minute deals trying to scuttle Uhuru-Ruto. All Raila needed to do is to Keep RV vote in 2013. GEMA would have been forced to either back Kalonzo or go it alone..and lose it.

Raila cannot handle it. See how Uhuru has kept Jubilee intact like a well oiled machine. You need to be a gentleman. You need to keep your word. People need to trust you. Raila is as trustworthy as Kibaki.

Uhuru only challenge was to handle URP squad (mainly RV+pastoralist) and like his father Jomo he has done it. Raila challenge is to keep two big communities happy...and he is just not cut for this.

Raila history beginning in 94 when he ousted Wamalwa for nothing more than brazen ambition....is not someone you want to bet on building anything.

[Reticent Solipsist]

Well, were Raila to announce that he was running for governor of Nairobi, I could easily see a situation unfolding where a good three quarters of the Kiambu electorate suddenly shift domicile to Nairobi just to defeat him.

On Raila generally, while I readily acknowledge him to be the single most consequential Kenyan politician of the last 25 years, who, by the way, handily thrashed Kibaki in the 2007 elections by anywhere from 650,000 to 900,000 votes.

That said, I generally fault Raila's abysmal management style and strategic vision when it comes to matters elections; he just can't seem to run a tight ship. In contrast, an overview of the impressive Obama model will give you pointers on the principle rules of electioneering: register, organize and get-out-the vote. It's all about the ground game.

[Georgesoros]

Corruption, inflation, poverty, poor schools, poor roads, Uhurus poor management of resources, etc
All these topics could have make him stick out. Instead IEBC is the focus.

Well, were Raila to announce that he was running for governor of Nairobi, I could easily see a situation unfolding where a good three quarters of the Kiambu electorate suddenly shift domicile to Nairobi just to defeat him.

On Raila generally, while I readily acknowledge him to be the single most consequential Kenyan politician of the last 25 years, who, by the way, handily thrashed Kibaki in the 2007 elections by anywhere from 650,000 to 900,000 votes.

That said, I generally fault Raila's abysmal management style and strategic vision when it comes to matters elections; he just can't seem to run a tight ship. In contrast, an overview of the impressive Obama model will give you pointers on the principle rules of electioneering: register, organize and get-out-the vote. It's all about the ground game.