South Africa, Nigeria, Angola, Kenya and such economies in trouble

[MOON Ki]

Totally agree. It kept pace with the growing economy. It just need to grow it share...sort of double...from 9-10%...

And in modern times, how many countries have industrialized with that level of manufacturing?

to 20-30%...so it can rival agriculture...as main source of employment for starters.

Kenya has been around the 10%, +/- a little bit, for the last 50 years.   I won't say it's impossible, but what exactly is the path to 20-30%?   (And, no, I don't take Vision 2030  seriously.)

[RV Pundit]

The path to doubling our manufacturing capacity is simple & hard. Hard because you've Chinese and other global industrials power exporting cheap products here. The simple part is to study where we've done well...which sub-sector of the manufacturing are we okay....and which ones have we done very little. Learn from it. We are not South Sudan with no industry to talk about..we got a good base to begin with.

 For example, look at tea sector, accounting for 20% of all our export value & volume from very little 20yrs ago. What has tea sector done well? It has grown annually at 10% or more bar a few years. Where I come from this has meant there are tea factories nearly every location. That right there is a success story of agri-business manufacturing. And yet it can grow even more if we focussed on blending and selling really finished tea complete with packing worldwide.

Then take a look at the laggards. For example the textile industry. Sort of acknowledged as the initiation to industralization worldwide.We have done totally zero except for EPZ. We have to think about banning Mitumba and making our own cheap clothes for starters. We have to be thinking about growing cotton in really large plantations. This really is the job of gov policy wonks. Ban this, give tax incentive here, start industrial companies, etc.

Regardless I am celebrating private initiatives such as more formalisation of retail sector spurring manufacturing.

Kenya has been around the 10% +/ for the last 50 years.   I won't say it's impossible, but what exactly is the path to 20-30%?   (And, no, I don't take Vision 2030  seriously.)

[MOON Ki]

Pundit, Robina, Terminator, et. al:

A lot on interesting observations and comments.  "To be continued", as I must go to sleep ... But for now: We can have debates on what we should be doing; in fact, we could even agree on most of that.   To my mind the  serious questions are about why we aren't doing whatever, when do we plan to start the doing, how to do the doing, etc.   Example (Robina):

Now, smart manufacturing aka value addition is not advanced to industrial manufacturing level. Since we have raw materials (agric, metals, etc) it requires processing plants to purify coffee, make cod liver oil from fish, etc. Baby step Instead of exporting pure hides and skins that we do at present. Doing this efficiently will a)increase revenues without being uncompetitive to market b)fulfill local demand and cut import bill.

So, where are we with respect to such basic "smart manufacturing"?  And where are the signs that we are about to make a "dramatic" change?  (Keep in mind that Terminator would have us leap from animal skins to semiconductors  )

[Nefertiti]

Pundit, Robina, Terminator, et. al:

A lot on interesting observations and comments.  "To be continued", as I must go to sleep ... But for now: We can have debates on what we should be doing; in fact, we could even agree on most of that.   To my mind the  serious questions are about why we aren't doing whatever, when do we plan to start the doing, how to do the doing, etc.   Example (Robina):

Now, smart manufacturing aka value addition is not advanced to industrial manufacturing level. Since we have raw materials (agric, metals, etc) it requires processing plants to purify coffee, make cod liver oil from fish, etc. Baby step Instead of exporting pure hides and skins that we do at present. Doing this efficiently will a)increase revenues without being uncompetitive to market b)fulfill local demand and cut import bill.

So, where are we with respect to such basic "smart manufacturing"?  And where are the signs that we are about to make a "dramatic" change?  (Keep in mind that Terminator would have us leap from animal skins to semiconductors  )

Very well. "Industrialization" is conflated with manufacturing. It means modernization. We could have steel as well as weetabix or computer factories. The bottom-line is sufficient incomes to contain poverty and prosper. What is the best path for development i.e. expansion/growth, you ask. Are we really on the right path?

The what - Vision 2030 suffices. Plans evolve so 2000 to 2020... 2060 is our equivalent of Chinese 5-Year Plans.

The doing - Vision 2030 Delivery Board has the best of breed in James Mwangi, Kibatis and the likes. The laptop-for-kids, Tana River* power plant, irrigation schemes, SGR, etc are steered by Vision 2030 boards such as the IT Authority. We can argue the efficacies but most state programs are reading from the agreed script with technocrats/PSs borrowing from these policy bodies.

Our strength is we have a working plan. Our weakness is execution. There are opportunities (global pool of expertise, technologies, capital) and threats (competition, corruption, etc). Pundit is right to say manufacturing should grow at 20-30% to catch up. This high, consistent growth is infact mandatory if the industrial dreams in Vision 2030 are to be realized. The roadmap says as much.

[RV Pundit]

I am surprised you didn't include the relevant examples here. Naivasha proposed industrial park...SGR is going there...and then we have Kundu (sp) in Mombasa. Then we have proposed leather industrial park in Athi river. We have to copy what Ethiopian are doing in shoe industry. I have seen Ethiopian leather shoes been hawked in the street. Who knows maybe in years to come Ethiopian or Kenyan shoes will compete with Italian shoes, bags, belts & etc. We have 20m plus cattle and ships.

To grow the share of our manufacturing sector....gov has to invest in low hanging fruits with potential multiplier effect that are missing....leather & textile for starters...then we have to start doing even simplest of phones/transformers/computers.

Gov has to invest in really large industries and slowly divest. They are only ones with enough money to risk.

Very well. "Industrialization" is conflated with manufacturing. It means modernization. We could have steel as well as weetabix or computer factories. The bottom-line is sufficient incomes to contain poverty and prosper. What is the best path for development i.e. expansion/growth, you ask. Are we really on the right path?

The what - Vision 2030 suffices. Plans evolve so 2000 to 2020... 2060 is our equivalent of Chinese 5-Year Plans.

The doing - Vision 2030 Delivery Board has the best of breed in James Mwangi, Kibatis and the likes. The laptop-for-kids, Tana River* power plant, irrigation schemes, SGR, etc are steered by Vision 2030 boards such as the IT Authority. We can argue the efficacies but most state programs are reading from the agreed script with technocrats/PSs borrowing from these policy bodies.

Our strength is we have a working plan. Our weakness is execution. There are opportunities (global pool of expertise, technologies, capital) and threats (competition, corruption, etc). Pundit is right to say manufacturing should grow at 20-30% to catch up. This high, consistent growth is infact mandatory if the industrial dreams in Vision 2030 are to be realized. The roadmap says as much.

[Nefertiti]

You are right. The flagship projects. 90% of what NARC/NARA and now Jubilee are running with is Vision 2030 material. Does it suffice for you?

MOON Ki's what is on paper, the doing is here now and after for all to see.

I am surprised you didn't include the relevant examples here. Naivasha proposed industrial park...SGR is going there...and then we have Kundu (sp) in Mombasa. Then we have proposed leather industrial park in Athi river. We have to copy what Ethiopian are doing in shoe industry. I have seen Ethiopian leather shoes been hawked in the street. Who knows maybe in years to come Ethiopian or Kenyan shoes will compete with Italian shoes, bags, belts & etc. We have 20m plus cattle and ships.

To grow the share of our manufacturing sector....gov has to invest in low hanging fruits with potential multiplier effect that are missing....leather & textile for starters...then we have to start doing even simplest of phones/transformers/computers.

Gov has to invest in really large industries and slowly divest. They are only ones with enough money to risk.

The what - Vision 2030 suffices. Plans evolve so 2000 to 2020... 2060 is our equivalent of Chinese 5-Year Plans.

The doing - Vision 2030 Delivery Board has the best of breed in James Mwangi, Kibatis and the likes. The laptop-for-kids, Tana River* power plant, irrigation schemes, SGR, etc are steered by Vision 2030 boards such as the IT Authority. We can argue the efficacies but most state programs are reading from the agreed script with technocrats/PSs borrowing from these policy bodies.

[MOON Ki]

Pundit is right to say manufacturing should grow at 20-30% to catch up. This high, consistent growth is infact mandatory if the industrial dreams in Vision 2030 are to be realized. The roadmap says as much.

I don't dispute that.   What I say is that GoK's present path is not going to achieve the dreams in Vision 2030.   Perhaps people can explain it to me with concrete examples and figures, but I don't see present Kenya achieving those levels of growth in short order.  Shoes and dresses just won't cut it; come to think of it, with regard to the textiles, last I looked Kenya was not even making full use of its AGOA quotas.

The present discussion has brought to mind another one elsewhere.   Some time ago we had a long-running thread on Jukwaa, on economics in general (rather than just third-world industrialization).    That discussion mentioned one book that I think is a great read:

I recently read a very interesting book that has some relevance here:

How Asia Works: Success and Failure in the World's Most Dynamic Region, by J. Studwell.
http://www.amazon.com/How-Asia-Works-Success-Failure/dp/080211959X/ref=cm_rdp_product

One of the Amazon reviews gives a good summary:

Author Studwell argues that there are three critical interventions that governments can use to speed up economic development. Used in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and now China, they have produced the quickest progressions from poverty to wealth that the world has seen.

The first and most overlooked is to maximize output from agriculture. The second is to direct investment and entrepreneurs towards manufacturing exports. Machines can easily be purchased on the world market, and successful east-Asian governments promoted technological upgrading through subsidies conditioned on export performance. (Exporters were almost invariably better businesses than firms that sold only at home.) The third is to focus capital on the fastest possible technology learning and the promise of high long-term profits, not short-term returns and individual consumption. This tends to pit the state against many businessmen and consumers with shorter-term horizons.

If he is right, and he makes a convincing argument for his case, then things don't look that great for Africa:

* What should be done in agriculture is not being done.   This is one place where all the "surplus labour" (strong, idle youth) could be put to good use.   (I note that even in Kenya, the "economic powerhouse of Eastern Africa", unemployment is probably something like 40% and mostly of young energetic people.)

* Cheap junk from China et al continue to erode manufacturing capacity.    (Currently Africa--all of Africa--- contributes something like 1.2%  or so of global manufacturing output and with few prospects of improving on the present paths.)

* As a consequence, the sort of "technological learning" that Stidwell refers to is not taking place.

Schact's achievements were certainly very impressive, especially with regard to employment, but could they work in today's world?   I think only partially at best.    To my mind, a better study today would be South Korea. 

http://jukwaa.proboards.com/post/124830/quote/8607

[Nefertiti]

I don't dispute that.   What I say is that GoK's present path is not going to achieve the dreams in Vision 2030.   Perhaps people can explain it to me with concrete examples and figures, but I don't see present Kenya achieving those levels of growth in short order.  Shoes and dresses just won't cut it; come to think of it, with regard to the textiles, last I looked Kenya was not even making full use of its AGOA quotas.

We agree on the diagnosis and prescription -- and the erratic administration. But we have no Rockefeller or Communist Party discipline here to steer the sustained growth needed to reach middle income status. Until that happens we are stuck with 5% snail progress -- and Vision 2030 pipedream.

Pundit prolly differs, that we can make it if we really try. All is not lost.

[RV Pundit]

I differ of course with MoonKi. Moonki is least interested or bothered by details. He just wants to wake up and find we've reached this goal. Until then for him it not happening. Personally I don't care about the discrete state of things...I care about the trends...about the little details. And I celebrate any small success knowing it not easy. I also mourn every little setback.Kenya industrial scene is a mix bag...some success stories here and there...some really breathtaking...and some huge dissappointment...such as dead as dodo webuye paper mill/everyready/firestones.

There is a lot that is happening that is slowly setting the stage for us to leapfrog.I see the financial sector is ready for take off -already world class. I see some areas of agriculture we are already world leaders (horticulture, tea & even dairy farming). I see retail & real estate sector that is on fire. I see ICT sector that is starting to kick ass. I see kenya has already move to middle income country with nearly 1500 per capita. I see us opening up borders and doing more trade with our neighbours. I see huge infrastructure projects on the horizon...kenya leading the way with more than 20 of such....SGR -now signed all the way to Malaba -10BUSD worth of project!!/turkana wind power/ketraco laying lines/KPLC last miles/Jubilee road's annuity programme/900MW project in Lamu. I see in many parts of country population starting to mature....people starting to have less kids & more people are living longer. I see us having reign on killer diseases like HIV/Malaria. I see devolution & good governance spreading the fruits of leadership around the country. I see 90% of kids going to school & 80% of them transitioning to high schools. I see our universities with more than 1/2 million students. I see them starting to admit 150-200K student annually. I see every std 1 Kid getting a laptop next year..amazing stuff. I see soon nearly everyone connected to electricity. We already have nearly everyone connected to telecommunication bar few areas in Northern Kenya. I see more gov services being offfered online, cutting redtape and corruption.

All these things may appear to be "nothing"..but if you compare say this to 3yrs ago....5yrs ago...10yrs ago....then you see a society undergoing massive transformation. The 5-6% when rebased later on will be nearly 10%--coz even stats bodies cannot keep up with growth. So are doing okay....we could do great..but this is not "easy" task.

Yeah I also see setbacks..corruption & insecurity...regional inequality (northern parts of kenya post some worst figures in anything)...but I don't share the view that dealing with say corruption..is nirvana we need!. It aint. There is probably zero corruption in Mandera but there are so many other things holding back people there!

All these things have to come together....over time.

Once all these "ingredients" are set....then we will start to quickly industralize and modernize...however we will have Moonki attribute all these ground work to guy in charge then...and some smart alec will probably write a book about this " Kenyan" miracle...unaware that there is no "Asian or whatever" miracle...but many years of painstaking progress that eventually all come together..and voila...everything start "happening".

We agree on the diagnosis and prescription -- and the erratic administration. But we have no Rockefeller or Communist Party discipline here to steer the sustained growth needed to reach middle income status. Until that happens we are stuck with 5% snail progress -- and Vision 2030 pipedream.

Pundit prolly differs, that we can make it if we really try. All is not lost.

[MOON Ki]

Once all these "ingredients" are set....then we will start to quickly industralize and modernize...however we will have Moonki attribute all these ground work to guy in charge then...and some smart alec will probably write a book about this " Kenyan" miracle...unaware that there is no "Asian or whatever" miracle...but many years of painstaking progress that eventually all come together..and voila...everything start "happening".

Perhaps such views explain the hopelessly slow progress.   I'm afraid it's not a matter of people mindlessly slogging away and things suddenly coming together some day.   In all those East Asian countries, the governments, under the right sort of leadership, have devised policies for what they needed and then aggressively seen them through.

I have no doubt that there has been some progress of sorts made in Kenya.   My main points are largely around funny illusions, such as Vision 2030.   The simple fact is that Kenya, especially under its current government, simply doesn't have what it would take to industrialize at that rate.   

[RV Pundit]

You cannot command a complex thing like development or industrialization. Unless you're GOD. Gov can plan and try to execute whatever vision. But they are not in charge of everything. These are best case scenarios. There will be risk..both internal and exogenous. They'll will be setbacks. Time & Money & other resources will always be scarce.Everyone wants to have what you desire.So competition is always going to undo your best plans.

I don't share this simplistic idea that China or Taiwan or Singapore or name any Asia tiger simply grew quickly in 20-30 yrs. If this was true...Rwanda under Kagame...now going nearly 25yrs...should already be on it's way there. And yet it far behind the "corrupt" kenya in nearly every metric that matters. Kagame I bet see himself as Lee guy of Singapore and probably has all those books & masterplan in his Kigali office..but nothing is happenning that quickly. He was lied to. He need to go slow for his own health and hand over power aware that the task before Rwandese will take 50-100yrs.

Those socieities or nation had years if not centuries of preparation for take off..lots of things were happening..but nobody was noticing..because most people are lazy and too stupid to dig deeper.

Perhaps such views explain the hopelessly slow progress.   I'm afraid it's not a matter of people mindlessly slogging away and things suddenly coming together some day.   In all those East Asian countries, the governments, under the right sort of leadership, have devised policies for what they needed and then aggressively seen them through.

I have no doubt that there has been some progress of sorts made in Kenya.   My main points are largely around funny illusions, such as Vision 2030.   The simple fact is that Kenya, especially under its current government, simply doesn't have what it would take to industrialize at that rate.   

[MOON Ki]

You cannot command a complex thing like development or industrialization. Unless you're GOD. Gov can plan and try to execute whatever vision. But they are not in charge of everything. These are best case scenarios. There will be risk..both internal and exogenous. They'll will be setbacks.

It's not a matter of commanding.   It's one of taking the right steps; development and industrialization don't simply fall out of the sky or magically happen after decades of mindlessly slogging away.    And in these matters, governments play the largest roles. 

I don't share this simplistic idea that China or Taiwan or Singapore or name any Asia tiger simply grew quickly in 20-30 yrs. If this was true...Rwanda under Kagame...now going nearly 25yrs...should already be on it's way there. And yet it far behind the "corrupt" kenya in nearly every metric that matters. Kagame I bet see himself as Lee guy of Singapore and probably has all those books & masterplan in his Kigali office..but nothing is happen that quickly. He was lied to.

I don't follow the logic:   If those countries grew quickly in 20-30 years, then that too should be the case for Rwanda?    On what basis?     How Kagame sees himself?  I think it takes more than that.   

It really doesn't matter whether or not you believe that those countries grew that quickly; the simple fact, known to all who are wide-awake, is that they did.  Rather than misplaced denial, I think a more useful approach would be to try and learn from them.

[RV Pundit]

It quite simple [but not simplistic]. The fate of country is similar to fate of our families or our villages or companies we form. If you apply Lee or whichever Asian model you like on your own family and come back 20yrs late; chance are you may slight ahead but not far off your neighbour. There are misfortunes, setbacks and as they say best plans soon unravel. The same can be said if today your opened your shop and had all these great plans...5yrs down the line...90% of all start ups go under.

That Asian tigers "quickly" developed is true. That is the visible part. Naked truth. Everyone saw it. If you went to China 20yrs ago..you'd see bicycles and rice paddies..now it as developed as any country. But the real truth I reckon is that these countries took far long than that. So you can learn the wrong lesson. If it was that simplistic..bottle this Asian miracle and sell it already. That would be quickest way to get 3-4 billion human being out of poverty. People go to best universities, research institutions and spend gazillion of money trying to solve this puzzle...and voila we got this "Asian" miracle in a little book. Written by this guy who was there when it was happening

Development I repeat is a very COMPLEX thing.

I don't follow the logic:   If those countries grew quickly in 20-30 years, then that too should be the case for Rwanda?    On what basis?     How Kagame sees himself?  I think it takes more than that.   

It really doesn't matter whether or not you believe that those countries grew that quickly; the simple fact, known to all who are wide-awake, is that they did.  Rather than misplaced denial, I think a more useful approach would be to try and learn from them.

[MOON Ki]

That Asian tigers "quickly" developed is true. That is the visible part. Naked truth. Everyone saw it. If you went to China 20yrs ago..you'd see bicycles and rice paddies..now it as developed as any country. But the real truth I reckon is that these countries took far long than that.

 

I'm getting confused now.   A little while ago, it was: 

I don't share this simplistic idea that China or Taiwan or Singapore or name any Asia tiger simply grew quickly in 20-30 yrs.

Now it's the "naked truth".   I'm interested to hear this "real truth" that you have.  The "invisible part".    Once we have that, I think we'll make better progress in our discussion, because when some of us talk about development, we mean what is visible.

(By the way, you have a very peculiar view of current China.)

If it was that simplistic..bottle this Asian miracle and sell it already. That would be quickest way to get 3-4 billion human being out of poverty. People go to best universities, research institutions and spend gazillion of money trying to solve this puzzle...and voila we got this "Asian" miracle in a little book. Written by this guy who was there when it was happening

It would be the quickest if people actually wanted to that and were focused on doing to.  If, say, people, would rather engage in mass slaughter than feed themselves, keep reproducing like rabbits even as they starve ... if those who lead governments see their role as just an opportunity to engage in large-scale theft, .... then it can hardly be said that they are serious about getting out of poverty.

If you wish to argue that people like Studwell are wrong, then the best way to do so if to put forward concrete arguments as to why?

[RV Pundit]

First so we can move forward, please stop nitpicking. China is now a developed country. There are poor desperate people everywhere. China has per capita ppp of 13kUSD. Kenya that is now low-middle income country has per capita ppp of 1500. We have backwater countries with less than that..Rwanda for example.

Yeah I think Studwell is wrong. The Asian miracle is a myth. I don't think you can come with short list of what a country need to do to developed/industralize and it can be applied everywhere. I think those countries started from a good base unlike say Kenya that started from bottom.

I'm getting confused now.   A little while ago, it was

I don't share this simplistic idea that China or Taiwan or Singapore or name any Asia tiger simply grew quickly in 20-30 yrs.

Now it's the "naked truth".   I'm interested to hear this "real truth" that you have.  The "invisible part".    Once we have that, I think we'll make better progress in our discussion, because when some of us talk about development, we mean what is visible.

If it was that simplistic..bottle this Asian miracle and sell it already. That would be quickest way to get 3-4 billion human being out of poverty. People go to best universities, research institutions and spend gazillion of money trying to solve this puzzle...and voila we got this "Asian" miracle in a little book. Written by this guy who was there when it was happening

It would be the quickest if people actually wanted to that and were focused on doing to.  If, say, people, would rather engage in mass slaughter than feed themselves, keep reproducing like rabbits even as they starve ... if those who lead governments see their role as just an opportunity to engage in large-scale theft, .... then it can hardly be said that they are serious about getting out of poverty.

If you wish to argue that people like Studwell are wrong, then the best way to do so if to put forward concrete arguments as to why?

[MOON Ki]

First so we can move forward, please stop nitpicking. China is now a developed country. There are poor desperate people everywhere. China has per capita ppp of 13kUSD. Kenya that is now low-middle income country has per capita ppp of 1500. We have backwater countries with less than that..Rwanda for example.

I wasn't nitpicking; I was simply amused by the statement that "now it as developed as any country".   I take it that what you mean is that it is much better than places like Kenya and Rwanda.   I won't argue with that.

By the way, do the Chinese too know that China is now a "developed country"?

Yeah I think Studwell is wrong. The Asian miracle is a myth. I don't think you can come with short list of what a country need to do to developed/industralize and it can be applied everywhere. I think those countries started from a good base unlike say Kenya that started from bottom.

I was hoping to read a more solid argument than a one-line "I think" in response to the likes of Studwell.   He has come up with a list---so the first "can" has been taken care of---and if you have anything to the contrary, let's have it.

[RV Pundit]

Start reading backwards. I already gave you some background. Start for example from DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND. What was the nature & structure of their population before "take" off. Kenya pop wise is equal to South Korea....Ethiopia at 90m is even bigger...but when you dig deeper...you'll find out that...out of 50M kenyans....more than 25M are under 18yrs!....and our working population is maybe 12-13m strong. Now South Korea then...the story was different...or China a few years ago. You have 50m folks...with 40m working population. On average the South Korea had maybe 1 or no person to support. Now 12-13m working kenyans are supporting on average maybe 4-5 kenyans...kids & old people. These 40m are able to work & buy stuff. There is 40M market there for many things. In kenya you have 25M folks that are draining the gov (education budget takes the lion share), their parents and the economy...and now add over 60yrs...who are too old to work & function.

Kenya is not ready for take off--maybe for another 30 yrs. However things are starting to change. In Central [and Nyanza minus hiv effect]...their population structure is starting to look good. That is worth noticing.Northern kenya on other hand are in big baby boom..Somalis now has on average 13-14 kids...they will be ready for take off...in 60yrs from now.

Kenya will be ready for take off when on average people will start marrying at 28-30yrs and having 1-2 kids.Then folks will start having more purchasing power, more working people than eating mouths, etc etc. Right now the marriage age is 21yrs --it was worse than this---and people have 5 kids on average. It worse if you look at some region/counties.

I was hoping to read a more solid argument than a one-line "I think".

[MOON Ki]

Start reading backwards. I already gave you some background. Start for example from DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND. Kenya pop wise is equal to South Korea....Ethiopia at 90m is even bigger...but when you dig deeper...you'll find out that...out of 50M kenyans....more than 25M are under 18yrs!....

Places like Kenya have no "demographic dividend"; what they have is a demographic ticking time-bomb.    I'm afraid it's not just a matter of having so many people; what really matters is that they are put to good use.   (See my earlier remarks on "labour surplus".)   So, what are all those young Kenyans doing other than idling during the and committing petty crimes at night?  Kenya has the same population as South Korea?   And the percentage of Kenyans (especially the youth) engaged in productive activities is?   

In any case, how exactly does your demographic theory counter the arguments put forth by Studwell?

...in 60yrs from now.

That's an awfully long time, but I have no basis on which to disagree with it.    A pity some things can't be  done sooner.   But f we don't have it in 60 years, I'm sure we'll get it in Heaven.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Pundit, Robina, Terminator, et. al:

A lot on interesting observations and comments.  "To be continued", as I must go to sleep ... But for now: We can have debates on what we should be doing; in fact, we could even agree on most of that.   To my mind the  serious questions are about why we aren't doing whatever, when do we plan to start the doing, how to do the doing, etc.   Example (Robina):

Now, smart manufacturing aka value addition is not advanced to industrial manufacturing level. Since we have raw materials (agric, metals, etc) it requires processing plants to purify coffee, make cod liver oil from fish, etc. Baby step Instead of exporting pure hides and skins that we do at present. Doing this efficiently will a)increase revenues without being uncompetitive to market b)fulfill local demand and cut import bill.

So, where are we with respect to such basic "smart manufacturing"?  And where are the signs that we are about to make a "dramatic" change?  (Keep in mind that Terminator would have us leap from animal skins to semiconductors  )

Semiconductors come much later after the core industry is established.  I believe Kenya should aim to establish itself on a world class level in one field, at least initially.  That way when someone in DC or Paris or wherever wants a service/product he should think Kenya.  That way Kenya and that particular niche become like Google and web search.   I see information technology as the low hanging fruit.  Because Kenya has no serious capital and an IT industry today is not as capital intensive as setting up factories and other brick and mortar ideas. 

About the doing, it seems to me that the government ,when it's not busy covering up for a thief or celebrating impunity, is just all over the place.  I am not saying they should ignore other things; food security is a must; but they should be laser focused on IT.  Kamwana should only make trips abroad related to selling Kenya as an IT hub; everyone already knows the country has lions, some even roaming in residential areas, and other endangered animals; enough of that.

[RV Pundit]

The Asian miracle that Studwell & you are so focused happened post 1950-1960s. This is the period when things start to happen. The demographic transition in East Asia happens  before the miracle. And quick google tell me some attribute 1/4 to 2/5 of the Asian miracle to this demographic "theory" reality.

Africa has a problem with it's population not to disimilar to kenya. Africa has maybe about 13% of world population but it's working population I can bet is 3-4%--and its economic output is similar 3-4%. The inflex point is when Africa stop producing kids and you have those working adults exceed the kids. If we start today that inflex point would maybe be 20yrs.

So you may argue that Asian tigers had all these great policies; but reality from data shows this was case of more inputs (more working people) producing more outputs. CHina started it one child policy in 70s when Asian tigers were already on high pedestal....so they had to wait till  90s...when the boom time comes.

Kenya workforce is very small. I think 15M (max). Active ones are 12m (10m in juakali & farming -2m in formal sector). It cannot compete with say South Africa....even if our population is not far off..or Singapore or China.

When you say Kenya doesn't utilize it's workforce..how do you propose it do it....have kazi kwa vijana? It economy that has to grow to absorb its population..it cannot grow because it still a tiny population (see 15m instead of 50M) and because every kenya is feeding kids & relatives...no money is left for investment or savings....to spur the growth.

This is hard. Complex. I know. So stick with simplistic theories. Find a politician or gov. And lay all the blame on them.

Now how do you enforce say 1 child policy in Africa?

In any case, how exactly does your demographic theory counter the arguments put forth by Studwell?