Donald Trump is President Elect of USA. He is going to win very big

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Clinton choices a spanish senator Kaine. I think he already had the spanish vote - and should have chosen a military general - considering Trump has ran away with security.

In the meantime Trump is closing on Hillary

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus

Tim Kaine is a WASP.  An old white man.  A safe establishment type of guy.  Hillary is making it harder than it should be.  Shooting herself in the foot.  Only days ago this guy called for the deregulation of the banking industry.

She should have picked a flaming liberal as a nod to Bernie Sanders base.  A general would do her no good because she is already considered a hawk.

[MOON Ki]

Tim Kaine is a WASP.  An old white man.  A safe establishment type of guy.  Hillary is making it harder than it should be.  Shooting herself in the foot.  Only days ago this guy called for the deregulation of the banking industry.

She should have picked a flaming liberal as a nod to Bernie Sanders base.  A general would do her no good because she is already considered a hawk.

I just listened to the guy do it in the habla lingo, how experiences south of the border changed his life, etc.    The Hispanic vote is in.  Smart move.   

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Tim Kaine is a WASP.  An old white man.  A safe establishment type of guy.  Hillary is making it harder than it should be.  Shooting herself in the foot.  Only days ago this guy called for the deregulation of the banking industry.

She should have picked a flaming liberal as a nod to Bernie Sanders base.  A general would do her no good because she is already considered a hawk.

I just listened to the guy do it in the habla lingo, how experiences south of the border changed his life, etc.    The Hispanic vote is in.  Smart move.   

I kind of feel like she already has the Hispanic vote.  They won't touch Trump with a 10 foot pole.  It would make a difference if he increases their turnout from the upper 40 percent to maybe 70 percent or something.  The vote that I think she is risking are the Sanders fanatics.  They won't touch Trump with a 40 foot pole.  But they may just not be motivated enough to show up.

[RV Pundit]

For the firstime in realclearpolitics average polls I am seeing Trump overtook clinton
RCP Poll Average   43.9   44.1   Trump +0.2Trending Up
4-Way RCP Average   40.4   39.8   Clinton +0.6Trending Down
RCP Electoral Map   202   164   

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

For the firstime in realclearpolitics average polls I am seeing Trump overtook clinton
RCP Poll Average   43.9   44.1   Trump +0.2Trending Up
4-Way RCP Average   40.4   39.8   Clinton +0.6Trending Down
RCP Electoral Map   202   164   

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

As expected.  The numbers should stabilize after Clinton's turn to dominate prime time uncontested for a week.

That said, fanatic turnout by Trump's tribe could tilt the popular vote to him.

[RV Pundit]

Democratic convention - what new thing will Hillary say to capture the people attention. Seem like the boring I am a safe pair of hands. Trump will continue to hog the news because he is attention seeking whore who will blurt nonsense after nonsense.

Then terror....

Germany has had terrible week of terror -after they let thousands of Syrian in- advantage Trump!

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Democratic convention - what new thing will Hillary say to capture the people attention. Seem like the boring I am a safe pair of hands. Trump will continue to hog the news because he is attention seeking whore who will blurt nonsense after nonsense.

The terror....

Germany has had terrible week of terror -after they let thousands of Syrian in- advantage Trump

She won't say anything new.  Just as Trump said nothing new. 

It's just the constant bombardment of the activities of the convention, mostly under the control and direction of her machine, on MSNBC, CNN, Fox News, ABC, what have you, 24/7.

Monday, Michelle Obama, Bernie Sanders say nice things.  Tuesday, Bill Clinton.  Wednesday Obama brings his gravitas.  Something like that.  Trump takes a back seat having to rely on paid adverts, in specific targeted states.

The intervening period before the debates is likely to get dirty.  By debate time, the dirt having done as much as possible, there is tiny sliver mostly of thoughtful voters still undecided.  Thoughtful voters and Trump...

Still, Hillary herself is Trump's best shot.

[Kichwa]

Hilary will run away with this one. Its not going to be close.  A landslide in US elections is anything over 55%.  I think Hilary will get about 53% popular vote and over 300 in electoral college.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Cory Booker auditioning Obama style for 2024.  After Hillary.

[Nefertiti]

Democratic convention - what new thing will Hillary say to capture the people attention. Seem like the boring I am a safe pair of hands. Trump will continue to hog the news because he is attention seeking whore who will blurt nonsense after nonsense.

The terror....

Germany has had terrible week of terror -after they let thousands of Syrian in- advantage Trump

She won't say anything new.  Just as Trump said nothing new. 

It's just the constant bombardment of the activities of the convention, mostly under the control and direction of her machine, on MSNBC, CNN, Fox News, ABC, what have you, 24/7.

Monday, Michelle Obama, Bernie Sanders say nice things.  Tuesday, Bill Clinton.  Wednesday Obama brings his gravitas.  Something like that.  Trump takes a back seat having to rely on paid adverts, in specific targeted states.

The intervening period before the debates is likely to get dirty.  By debate time, the dirt having done as much as possible, there is tiny sliver mostly of thoughtful voters still undecided.  Thoughtful voters and Trump...

Still, Hillary herself is Trump's best shot.

Melania's plagiary of Michelle's speech was a "mistake" designed to capture the news.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

The best Melania can do is what?  Mimick Michelle?  She has her work cut out.

This man is the second black President come 2024.

[Kichwa]

Cory needs to get married and have some kids running around or he needs to come-out otherwise the rumors will never end.

[Empedocles]

Cory needs to get married and have some kids running around or he needs to come-out otherwise the rumors will never end.

With Trump helping spread the rumours:

If Cory Booker is the future of the Democratic Party, they have no future! I know more about Cory than he knows about himself.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 26, 2016

[RV Pundit]

Been watching the Nate Silver's thing - and last week Tramp had less than 40% chance of winning - now it neck to neck. Clinton is toast.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[Real P]

The father of Muslim soldier killed in action delivered a brutal repudiation of Donald Trump at the DNC

This was probably one of the most unsuspected but incredible powerful speeches of the DNC. He wasn't the most eloquent or the best public speaker but he was speaking from the heart and every point he made was rock solid and cut to the core of the issues surrounding Trump and the BS he spews about himself and others. When he pulled that pocket constitution out that was it, he basically slapped Trump across the face in front of millions and stared him in the eye afterward.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

If the current poll numbers are sustained Hillary is sleepwalking into the White House.  http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

At the moment Trump is fairing badly.  So badly he is starting to focus on excuses.  Roger Stone, a Trump anal wipe has promised a bloodbath if(when) Trump loses.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-general-election-rigged-potential-challenge

[Empedocles]

If the current poll numbers are sustained Hillary is sleepwalking into the White House.  http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

At the moment Trump is fairing badly.  So badly he is starting to focus on excuses.  Roger Stone, a Trump anal wipe has promised a bloodbath if(when) Trump loses.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-general-election-rigged-potential-challenge

Now that I think about it a bit more, is predestined to implode.  In other words, if you want to hurt grandiose narcissists, target their feelings of job accomplishment, exactly what Khan unwittingly did.

Wait until the debates, which some are beginning to suspect he wants to avoid at all costs. But whether he debates or not, the implosion is coming, especially the closer he gets to the election date, the more untouchable he's gonna feel.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

If the current poll numbers are sustained Hillary is sleepwalking into the White House.  http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

At the moment Trump is fairing badly.  So badly he is starting to focus on excuses.  Roger Stone, a Trump anal wipe has promised a bloodbath if(when) Trump loses.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-general-election-rigged-potential-challenge

Now that I think about it a bit more, is predestined to implode.  In other words, if you want to hurt grandiose narcissists, target their feelings of job accomplishment, exactly what Khan unwittingly did.

Wait until the debates, which some are beginning to suspect he wants to avoid at all costs. But whether he debates or not, the implosion is coming, especially the closer he gets to the election date, the more untouchable he's gonna feel.

He does have a serious personality disorder.  The kind that will not permit him to correct course.  He did so well appealing to the Republican crass racism, that he assumed the same formula would work in the general.  To put it plainly he doesn't know how to appeal to the rest of population. 

He has to actually try to sound less bombastic, more reasonable, even convincing.  Like a grown up.  But if he does that, the red necks will peel off.  He will keep his faithful bunch of racists, and basically go down with them. 

Right now Hillary can shoot someone in Times Square and sleepwalk into the White House.

[Empedocles]

Doubts emeging that Mrs. Melania Trump probably wasn't legal when she first started working in the States:

I cringed this morning when I read this story in Politico which pretty clearly demonstrated that Melania Trump was an undocumented worker for years when she began her modeling career in the US in the mid-90s. I say I cringed not because there's anything wrong with the piece but because we too were working on it back in February and March and had it pretty well nailed. The hold up was that there was at least one theoretically possible way she could have been legal that we couldn't definitively rule out since the Trumps' of course were not going to answer any questions or provide any of her immigrants papers. The irony in all of this is that the evidence against Trump comes almost entirely from her own mouth, specifically a January interview she gave to Harper's Bazaar and a subsequent TV interview with Mika Brzezinski in which she explained that she was nothing like those awful 'illegals' her husband wants to expel en masse.

The key is this passage in that interview ...

"I came here for my career, and I did so well, I moved here. It never crossed my mind to stay here without papers. That is just the person you are. You follow the rules. You follow the law. Every few months you need to fly back to Europe and stamp your visa. After a few visas, I applied for a green card and got it in 2001. After the green card, I applied for citizenship. And it was a long process."

None of our readers seem to have read that profile - or at least they didn't make the connection and tell us. But at least two did see her subsequent late February interview with Mika Brzezinski in which she made essentially the same claims.

"I followed the law. I never thought to stay here without papers. I had a visa, I traveled every few months back to the country to Slovenia to stamp the visa. I came back, I applied for the green card, I applied for the citizenship later on after many years of green card. So I went by system, I went by the law. And you should do that, you should not just say let me stay here and whatever happens, happens."

The irony here is that Melania lays it on rather thick about how she's nothing like the people her husband wants to boot out of the country. Let's call it her 'I was legit white immigrant' tour.

Here's the problem, as both TPM Readers JSK (immigrant) and PG (immigration lawyer) noted to us in emails: the set of circumstances Melania describes makes it almost certain that she was in the US on travel/visitor visas rather than a work visa. If you're on a work visa you don't have to keep traveling back and forth to get your visa renewed. (The Politico article goes through the technical names for these different kinds of visas.)

There is a possible exception: very high profile athletes and models can get a kind of visa which allows them to visit the country and work for a short period of time. But Melania wasn't in that echelon at all. She was one of many models trying to get a start in the business doing mainly catalog work.

The upshot is that Melania was almost certainly working in the US illegally. And every time she returned to the country and passed through immigration she would have had to have committed fraud by saying she in the US to visit rather than work.

In theory this would make her subsequent Green Card and even citizenship suspect, based on visa fraud earlier in the process.

It is only fair to say that based on our reporting this sort of illegal work was rife in the modeling industry at the time. This wouldn't have made her a particularly egregious example. But then few of those women are now married to a man who wants a zero tolerance policy that would lead to the expulsion of 3% of the current US population.

So if you're inclined to snark, Trump's third wife was an 'illegal'. Even her status in the country today could, in theory, be suspect.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/was-melania-trump-an-illegal-also-argh

Here's all she had to say about it, without addressing the dates in question:

pic.twitter.com/U3VTY05mzc

— MELANIA TRUMP (@MELANIATRUMP) August 4, 2016

[RV Pundit]

Yeap Donald on the ropes now. But don't count him out yet. He is an alley cat.