Donald Trump is President Elect of USA. He is going to win very big

[MOON Ki]

They could carry the South and lose the general on a consistent basis.

Last elections: Romney took all of the South except Florida, but lost.   Had he won in Florida, he would have beaten Obama.  Can Trump win in any of the states that Obama took?   Doubtful.   Can he win in Florida?   The demographics suggest not, especially given some of his more colourful comments. 

What does his own party think of his chances?   This week the politicians have started to take hard swings at him, and the money people have started pouring their stuff into Super PACs funding attack ads against him.   What do those people see?

Trump will run away with this racist part of the party.  The Republican establishment will either have to form a new party or embrace Trump.

The current party "spit" and (in a small number of ways) the candidate bring to mind Barry Goldwater and the Republican party of his day.   Goldwater won the nomination, but did not get very far after that.  It might be argued that the South is less Democratic these days, but then there's the first point above (spread of electoral-college votes).

Trump's success so far should be judged in light of the fact that so far the battle is limited to  the party faithful. 

[RV Pundit]

Trump is no idiot. I expect him to tone down once he wins the party ticket and win against Hillary.

[Empedocles]

Trump is no idiot. I expect him to tone down once he wins the party ticket and win against Hillary.

If Trump tones down, he loses his core supporters.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Trump is no idiot. I expect him to tone down once he wins the party ticket and win against Hillary.

If Trump tones down, he loses his core supporters.

Exactly.  He has eviscerated his chances in a general for a primary victory.

[Globalcitizen12]

total showdown between liberals and nationalists. This is going to get ugly in South and Mid-west. It total chaos. Liberals now are giving GOP establishment more reasons for a brokered convention. At this point Republicans party leaders may decide they may as well lose GE but hold on to the party. I except trump to run as an independent because there is no way he is going to be allowed to be candidate. trump is "winning" with 35% of republican delegates. It is a Moi minority win in the 1990s

[RV Pundit]

Trump after he wins Ohio and Florida will wrap up the Rethug ticket and from there he'll start moderating as he takes on Hillary. Just like rethug cannot figure out how to stop trump (whatever he does or says), I think democrats will also fail to handle trump.

This election is Donald Trump to lose. He is Obama anti-dote. Folks are tired of Obama measured no drama presidency. They want to have someone a little more carefree. In Trump they see one.

total showdown between liberals and nationalists. This is going to get ugly in South and Mid-west. It total chaos. Liberals now are giving GOP establishment more reasons for a brokered convention. At this point Republicans party leaders may decide they may as well lose GE but hold on to the party. I except trump to run as an independent because there is no way he is going to be allowed to be candidate. trump is "winning" with 35% of republican delegates. It is a Moi minority win in the 1990s

[MOON Ki]

Trump after he wins Ohio and Florida will wrap up the Rethug ticket and from there he'll start moderating as he takes on Hillary. Just like rethug cannot figure out how to stop trump (whatever he does or says), I think democrats will also fail to handle trump.

This election is Donald Trump to lose. He is Obama anti-dote. Folks are tired of Obama measured no drama presidency. They want to have someone a little more carefree. In Trump they see one.

Trump is going nowhere.   Even Trump probably knows that; but he is a businessman, and this little circus will make the "Trump" name/brand even more marketable.   

The idea that "democrats will also fail to handle trump" is way off.   If you look at the Electoral College votes in Obama's 1st victory and his 2nd, you will see that Romney got all the possible redneck votes (South and tinker-toy parts of the Mid-West) but still lost.   Those votes make up the best-case scenario for Trump.    Except that he is probably worse off than Romney: like Goldwater, even if he wins party's nomination, ultimately he splits his own party in a disastrous way.

This brings us to your earlier comment that once he is nominated, he will shape up ... Won't work.    Unlike what happens our Great Country, in the USA the trash  that politicians talk is never forgotten.   For Trump to win, even if he gets all the redneck votes---and that's not a certainty, given the conflicts in his own party---he would have to win Florida.   TV ads that regurgitate his views on "south of the border" (and suchlike) pretty much ensures that won't happen.   To keep his rabid supporters he will not be able to back away from his nasty bits, and that's going to make it even easier to hit him on that basis.

And here's another aspect: In terms of grassroots organization of get-them-to-register/get-them-out-to-vote, I can't think of a US president/"aspiring-president" who's done better than Obama.   (His "cousin" in Kenya could learn something there.)   That is interesting for two reasons: 

* Contrary to what one would expect as the norm, Obama maintained his "organization" from the 1st campaign to the next.  What is even more unusual is that he has still kept it an plans to do "great" things with it after he leaves office. (The Washington Post,  a few months ago, had a lengthy and very interesting article on this.)

* At some point, Obama will bring all his stuff in support of the Democratic nominee, and it's not chicken-shit.   (Not surprisingly, one of the debates between Clinton and Sanders boiled down to who would be truer to Obama's legacy .... who loved Obama the most.)

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Trump after he wins Ohio and Florida will wrap up the Rethug ticket and from there he'll start moderating as he takes on Hillary. Just like rethug cannot figure out how to stop trump (whatever he does or says), I think democrats will also fail to handle trump.

This election is Donald Trump to lose. He is Obama anti-dote. Folks are tired of Obama measured no drama presidency. They want to have someone a little more carefree. In Trump they see one.

Trump is going nowhere.   Even Trump probably knows that; but he is a businessman, and this little circus will make the "Trump" name/brand even more marketable.   

The idea that "democrats will also fail to handle trump" is way off.   If you look at the Electoral College votes in Obama's 1st victory and his 2nd, you will see that Romney got all the possible redneck votes (South and tinker-toy parts of the Mid-West) but still lost.   Those votes make up the best-case scenario for Trump.    Except that he is probably worse off than Romney: like Goldwater, even if he wins party's nomination, ultimately he splits his own party in a disastrous way.

This brings us to your earlier comment that once he is nominated, he will shape up ... Won't work.    Unlike what happens our Great Country, in the USA the trash  that politicians talk is never forgotten.   For Trump to win, even if he gets all the redneck votes---and that's not a certainty, given the conflicts in his own party---he would have to win Florida.   TV ads that regurgitate his views on "south of the border" (and suchlike) pretty much ensures that won't happen.   To keep his rabid supporters he will not be able to back away from his nasty bits, and that's going to make it even easier to hit him on that basis.

And here's another aspect: In terms of grassroots organization of get-them-to-register/get-them-out-to-vote, I can't think of a US president/"aspiring-president" who's done better than Obama.   (His "cousin" in Kenya could learn something there.)   That is interesting for two reasons: 

* Contrary to what one would expect as the norm, Obama maintained his "organization" from the 1st campaign to the next.  What is even more unusual is that he has still kept it an plans to do "great" things with it after he leaves office. (The Washington Post,  a few months ago, had a lengthy and very interesting article on this.)

* At some point, Obama will bring all his stuff in support of the Democratic nominee, and it's not chicken-shit.   (Not surprisingly, one of the debates between Clinton and Sanders boiled down to who would be truer to Obama's legacy .... who loved Obama the most.)

While racists make up a good chunk of the right wing of the Republican party, his views are not appealing or even tolerated among independents, let alone some parts of his own party.  He cannot change tact and suddenly appeal to them, having gone off the cliff in the primary.  Wavering is a losing trait in US politics.

It's true the electoral college map does not favor him.  He might not even be able to compete in Ohio.  I think he is currently running with 35% of a crumbling Republican party.  In the general he starts off at a disadvantage, and will not be able to win, in the big states of California, New York, Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania.  He only has Texas among the big guns.

Bush was able to win Ohio, New Mexico, Virginia and Florida.  These are must win yet not sufficient states, for any Republican to have a chance.  Obama machine actually turned Virginia and New Mexico reliably blue.  They are no longer battle ground states and barring disaster, they should be safe pickings for Clinton because of Hispanics and DC suburban Northern Virginia. 

The Clinton machine, even by itself is pretty formidable with a few lessons from the Obama experience.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Here is the electoral college map.  Hillary's task is simple.  She just needs to hang onto 23 electoral swing votes out of the toss-ups to close the deal; something like Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire.  She could lose Virginia, Ohio and Florida and still win.  It's an uphill task for well organized and united Republican front.  It's even worse in their current condition.

Her campaign can make Republican's task even crazier by seriously targetting quasi-Republican turf like North Carolina, Georgia and Missouri.



http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/05/2016-predictions-117554

[Real P]

They could carry the South and lose the general on a consistent basis.

Last elections: Romney took all of the South except Florida, but lost.  Had he won in Florida, he would have beaten Obama. Can Trump win in any of the states that Obama took?   Doubtful.   Can he win in Florida?   The demographics suggest not, especially given some of his more colourful comments. 

What does his own party think of his chances?   This week the politicians have started to take hard swings at him, and the money people have started pouring their stuff into Super PACs funding attack ads against him.   What do those people see?

Trump will run away with this racist part of the party.  The Republican establishment will either have to form a new party or embrace Trump.

The current party "spit" and (in a small number of ways) the candidate bring to mind Barry Goldwater and the Republican party of his day.   Goldwater won the nomination, but did not get very far after that.  It might be argued that the South is less Democratic these days, but then there's the first point above (spread of electoral-college votes).

Trump's success so far should be judged in light of the fact that so far the battle is limited to  the party faithful.

Moon Ki, FACT CHECK will rate your statement not true. Even if Romney had carried Florida, Virginia and Ohio all battleground states that he lost; Obama still would have won with 272 electoral votes.

[Real P]

Trump after he wins Ohio and Florida will wrap up the Rethug ticket and from there he'll start moderating as he takes on Hillary. Just like rethug cannot figure out how to stop trump (whatever he does or says), I think democrats will also fail to handle trump.

This election is Donald Trump to lose. He is Obama anti-dote. Folks are tired of Obama measured no drama presidency. They want to have someone a little more carefree. In Trump they see one.

total showdown between liberals and nationalists. This is going to get ugly in South and Mid-west. It total chaos. Liberals now are giving GOP establishment more reasons for a brokered convention. At this point Republicans party leaders may decide they may as well lose GE but hold on to the party. I except trump to run as an independent because there is no way he is going to be allowed to be candidate. trump is "winning" with 35% of republican delegates. It is a Moi minority win in the 1990s

Trump has an uphill battle even if he wins the GOP. Republicans can't win with White voters alone. No Republican candidate before Romney lost while winning 59 percent of the white vote, which was almost 90 percent of his support. George H.W. Bush won about that portion in 1988 but captured 426 electoral votes. Romney got just 206. The white portion of the vote has shrunk 15 points to 72 percent in the six presidential elections since 1992. With the fastest-growing ethnic group, Asian Americans, Romney did even worse (21 percent) than he did with Hispanics (27 percent).

http://www.thenation.com/article/bad-news-about-white-people-romney-won-white-vote-almost-everywhere/

[MOON Ki]

RP:

Noted, with thanks.   I added the votes with paper and pencil, lost a "carry" and ended up with 232 for Obama!

[RV Pundit]

Obama "organisation" comes down to his momentum at the right time; he was able to energize his voters; All these assumptions have been tested in primaries and trump 'make america great again' smashes them again and again.It down to who can energize folks. In states where independents and non-registered rethugs have been allowed to vote; trump wins; and he is getting some record turn out while spending very little.

I believe trump will energize a lot of folks who naturally won't be interested in politics and win. The same way Obama energized students and the likes to carry him to POTUS.

Hillary just don't excite anyone. Sanders could but his wish-washy nature just mean he can't sustain it. The rednecks now have a good reason to really come out and vote.

Say anything but USA is still a white country...with more than 70% of the vote. Trump just need to excite part of that 70% to come out and vote.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Obama "organisation" comes down to his momentum at the right time; he was able to energize his voters; All these assumptions have been tested in primaries and trump 'make america great again' smashes them again and again.It down to who can energize folks. In states where independents and non-registered rethugs have been allowed to vote; trump wins; and he is getting some record turn out while spending very little.

I believe trump will energize a lot of folks who naturally won't be interested in politics and win. The same way Obama energized students and the likes to carry him to POTUS.

Hillary just don't excite anyone. Sanders could but his wish-washy nature just mean he can't sustain it. The rednecks now have a good reason to really come out and vote.

Say anything but USA is still a white country...with more than 70% of the vote. Trump just need to excite part of that 70% to come out and vote.

Obama had a formidable ground game.  Something that I can't say for Trump but could say for Hillary.  Sure he can turn out hordes of rednecks and Romney Blue dog dems to carry states in a Republican Primary.  But even in those, he is just getting 35% and polarizing a good chunk of the rest.   

The real problem though is the electoral college math doesn't add up for him.  He won't get Obama supporters and more.  High turnouts in safe states are virtually meaningless.  Demographic shifts are actually turning formerly safe red states into swing states.  And it's not just because of minorities but also because an influx of whites from the North.

Any Republican, let alone Trump, has an uphill task winning enough swing states.  Trump is the only Republican thus far who loses in a matchup with either Democrat.

[RV Pundit]

What is this with 35%? It is not like Obama won with 70% of democratic party. It was dog fight all the way. The same is true for republican party with many strong candidates. Once republican party come over and endorse trump; then trump get "100%" of the rethugs. And that will happen on Tuesday night after he carries Ohio and Florida.

We know Hillary will win in Democratic party but going by how "badly" she is struggling against an independent socialist like Sanders; how do you expect her to compete against Donald Trump?

What worked for Obama will not work for everyone. Trump has not needed any ground game or tonnes of money. He has simply used his big mouth, his jet, a few big rallies and twitter. Now when the party machinery comes into play, then trump becomes even more deadly.

Many folks have underestimated Trump but look where he is is now. He was suppose to be dead so many times; but he is still kicking.

Once Trump locks the party ticket; expect him to make smart choice with regard to his VP and guys around him; that will appease the party and moderate his message.

Obama had a formidable ground game.  Something that I can't say for Trump but could say for Hillary.  Sure he can turn out hordes of rednecks and Romney Blue dog dems to carry states in a Republican Primary.  But even in those, he is just getting 35% and polarizing a good chunk of the rest.   

The real problem though is the electoral college math doesn't add up for him.  He won't get Obama supporters and more.  High turnouts in safe states are virtually meaningless.  Demographic shifts are actually turning formerly safe red states into swing states.  And it's not just because of minorities but also because an influx of whites from the North.

Any Republican, let alone Trump, has an uphill task winning enough swing states.  Trump is the only Republican thus far who loses in a matchup with either Democrat.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

What is this with 35%? It is not like Obama won with 70% of democratic party. It was dog fight all the way. The same is true for republican party with many strong candidates. Once republican party come over and endorse trump; then trump get "100%" of the rethugs. And that will happen on Tuesday night after he carries Ohio and Florida.

We know Hillary will win in Democratic party but going by how "badly" she is struggling against an independent socialist like Sanders; how do you expect her to compete against Donald Trump?

What worked for Obama will not work for everyone. Trump has not needed any ground game or tonnes of money. He has simply used his big mouth, his jet, a few big rallies and twitter. Now when the party machinery comes into play, then trump becomes even more deadly.

Many folks have underestimated Trump but look where he is is now. He was suppose to be dead so many times; but he is still kicking.

Once Trump locks the party ticket; expect him to make smart choice with regard to his VP and guys around him; that will appease the party and moderate his message.

Obama had a formidable ground game.  Something that I can't say for Trump but could say for Hillary.  Sure he can turn out hordes of rednecks and Romney Blue dog dems to carry states in a Republican Primary.  But even in those, he is just getting 35% and polarizing a good chunk of the rest.   

The real problem though is the electoral college math doesn't add up for him.  He won't get Obama supporters and more.  High turnouts in safe states are virtually meaningless.  Demographic shifts are actually turning formerly safe red states into swing states.  And it's not just because of minorities but also because an influx of whites from the North.

Any Republican, let alone Trump, has an uphill task winning enough swing states.  Trump is the only Republican thus far who loses in a matchup with either Democrat.

35% is the proportion of his support in the Republican party, while alienating the rest, to this point.  The Republican party has been in decline since 2000, maybe earlier.  W won his first term riding on the back of Ralph Nader as spoiler in Florida.  Beating Kerry was because he was a war President. 

Trump's performance thus far is not surprising at all.  He has consistently led in the polls.  With a lot of help from his big mouth as you acknowledge.  Because Republicans consciously made a decision to rally their base around race a few decades back, using code of course.  Trump is winning with that strategy without mincing words. 

He is running a KKK campaign.  In St. Louis, his speech can be summed up as fuck these niggers.  The message is as clear in the US as madoadoa is in RV.  That is a lot of baggage to carry into a general, where your opponents have no issues calling you out on it.

You have to assume that he is performing miracles, which he is not.  The polls have him consistently losing a general election.  The only Republican candidate who loses to either Dem.  All the others actually beat Hillary and lose to Bernie Sanders.  Trump loses badly in both cases, but gets especially pillaged by Bernie Sanders. 

Given that he has to mellow down to attempt to reach out to others(forget any minorities) it's not as easy as you make it seem.  He will become just another Republican, but with major baggage, trying to win increasingly blue swing states.

[Globalcitizen12]

trump before Chicago was formidable but now his armor has been pierced by liberal activists. His supporters played into the hands of liberal activists and now Donald credibility is shot. So Hillary wins because she will hold onto NJ, PA, NY which would have been swing states if Donald did not Fuck up last week. GOP is done. Working class Americans are idiots they should have worked to broaden their base but due to racism they shrunk it. Trump economic message would have been sellable to even workingclass African Americans especially males.

So not Hillary is president elect unless she develops health complications between now and November

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

trump before Chicago was formidable but now his armor has been pierced by liberal activists. His supporters played into the hands of liberal activists and now Donald credibility is shot. So Hillary wins because she will hold onto NJ, PA, NY which would have been swing states if Donald did not Fuck up last week. GOP is done. Working class Americans are idiots they should have worked to broaden their base but due to racism they shrunk it. Trump economic message would have been sellable to even workingclass African Americans especially males.

So not Hillary is president elect unless she develops health complications between now and November

In Chicago, he encountered First Amendment.  Free speech does not include a right to a cooperative audience.  It was akin to Raila going into Gatundu to insult kamwana. 

[Globalcitizen12]

the issue still remains unsolved trump or no trump.. so we can kick the can down the road and wait for mid term elections for a new revolt
http://dailysignal.com/2016/03/14/why-washingtons-political-class-is-losing-control/

[Globalcitizen12]

John Oliver does his part on this demagogue. This interesting, it shows how a bully in this politically correct world where everyone is a slave of self interest and other vested interests can rise and take power. If trump wins then I would say even military coup is within reach in this country. A trump win will be a revolution, how this ends will be interesting. This country used to be the land of the brave but money has become so addicting and a tool of control that brilliant men have turned to nothing but slaves. Their freedom is nonexistent. In Corporate boardrooms no decisions can be made without checking with the masters no independence of doing what is good for the greater society or organization. It a very confusing time and a desperate one