You guys talk as if all over sudden a republican can never win POTUS. Forgetting Obama just replaced George Dubya Bush who had an even more dubious record. Fact is republican party won the mid term and control the congress & I think even the senate. That is not a party in decline. It a party that control most of the US except in big cities where liberals, blacks and latinos dominate. Without caring to elaborate..Trump will carry most rural white dominated states....and will be just need to win both Florida and Ohio...to nick POTUS.
All the stars are aligning for Trump. In this election where folks are anti-politicians and anti-establishment, trump as the only outsider, is become more popular the more rethugs politicians cast aspersion on him. Also after liberal democract in Obama, US seem ready for another George Dubya Bush.
The more republican party top honchos refuses to endorse trump, the more popular he is becoming.
Bottomline: Blacks are overrated minority. Latinos have a long way to go. American remain a white country...and all trump need is to get the red necks interested in voting again.
What is the hypothetical path to a victory for Trump? Which states will vote red?
That's not true. I am just going by the polls. On an earlier post, I actually said Hillary loses to
all Republican candidates except the Donald. Ted Cruz, Rubio, Kasich all beat Clinton in a general; at least in a popular vote terms.
Without going into details, the mid-term demographic has always favored Republicans. It doesn't always translate to the general election.
Every state in the US is white dominated. The states you say he will win are red states. Republicans win red states. Sarah Palin brought out hordes of the same Trump supporters to stop Obama from shuckin' and jivin' his way to White House. And they carried those states.
It's true that most whites vote Republican. Romney got something like 59% of the white vote nationally. I am not sure about the exact figure but that proportion goes down in Blue states. The South has a larger proportion of blacks; the Republicans therefore have to win a lot more than 59% of the white vote in those states to carry them. Their proportion of the white vote in blue states doesn't help them in a general(they can win congressional seats though). Trump has to win over enough undecided whites to carry some swing states. One can even give him Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Colorado off the bat and he'd still lose.
But that is really splitting hairs. The electoral college map is where you want to focus. There are all sorts of reasons for it, but some states are reliably blue, others are red and some are purple trending to blue. The margin for error for a Republican in 2016 is thinner than it was in 2000 when Bush attracted more than just angry white voters and had some help from Ralph Nader.
In any case not a single poll has Trump winning the general election against either democrat. It might be too early, but that has been a pretty steady outcome.
