Syria Is A Mess

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

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Everyone is armed heavily, including chemical weapons.  Swathes of the country under the rule of medieval cavemen.  The rest is controlled by loonies of various shades.

Assad is still hanging onto power, his minority rule now propped by Putin's Russia, and apparently Iran and Hezbollah.  Uncle Sam and Saudis have declared he has no place in the future of Syria or whatever will be left of it.

Russia seems to have clear goals.  To prop up the dictator that everyone else has decided has to go.  And oppose all anti-Assad forces.

The US is simply confused.  The only certainty being opposition to Assad.  Beyond that, there is nothing coherent.  Wondering if they will be forced to attack Assad and the Russians if he starts to regain territory.  Or to outright provide military support to ISIS who they claim to have been bombing over the last year.

It's a jungle out there.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Obama escalates the mess further.  Sepcial ops forces usually mean related support infrastructure.  If they are in areas where the Russian planes are bombing, it means they could possibly have to bring down the Russian planes to save themselves.  More realistically, it just limits the areas the Russians can freely bomb.

If there is any significance to this, it is that the partition of Syria is the defacto outcome.

he United States is set to deploy troops on the ground in Syria for the first time to advise and assist rebel forces combating ISIS, the White House said Friday.

White House spokesman Josh Earnest said that the U.S. would be deploying "less than 50" Special Operations forces, who will be sent to Kurdish-controlled territory in northern Syria. The American troops will help local Kurdish and Arab forces fighting ISIS with logistics and are planning to bolster their efforts.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/30/politics/syria-troops-special-operations-forces/

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Turkey shoots down Russian plane.  They say it was inside Turkish airspace. 

Putin is bitter.  But having few viable options, he has to eat his lumps.  Be more careful.  Turkey is a fearsome military power, even without article 5.

All the major militaries in currently those part will likely understand that they are fighting a common enemy.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/11/24/reports-turkey-shoots-russian-jet/76299190/[/quote]

[mya88]

Turkey shoots down Russian plane.  They say it was inside Turkish airspace. 

Putin is bitter.  But having few viable options, he has to eat his lumps.  Be more careful.  Turkey is a fearsome military power, even without article 5.

All the major militaries in currently those part will likely understand that they are fighting a common enemy.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/11/24/reports-turkey-shoots-russian-jet/76299190/

[/quote]

This is becoming a dangerous game, That plane that was shot down was video taped...have they really confirmed that it was not in Turkey's territory? I am starting to hear things like a third world war being thrown around, and that is never a good sign. Turkey may have a top army, but so is Russia. If they decide to retaliate then what? There are no winners in this war. I fail to understand why Russia is propping up Assad or why they West want him gone. What is really at stake here? Given the humanitarian crisis that has resulted from this debacle, wouldn't it have been better to let Assad stay on if only for the sake of the country? Clearly Assad doesn't care about his nation because he continues to cling to power as Syrian children a being washed ashore, what is the purpose of being president to a country with no one in it?

https://www.rt.com/news/323379-s400-russia-syria-airbase/

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Turkey shoots down Russian plane.  They say it was inside Turkish airspace. 

Putin is bitter.  But having few viable options, he has to eat his lumps.  Be more careful.  Turkey is a fearsome military power, even without article 5.

All the major militaries in currently those part will likely understand that they are fighting a common enemy.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/11/24/reports-turkey-shoots-russian-jet/76299190/

This is becoming a dangerous game, That plane that was shot down was video taped...have they really confirmed that it was not in Turkey's territory? I am starting to hear things like a third world war being thrown around, and that is never a good sign. Turkey may have a top army, but so is Russia. If they decide to retaliate then what? There are no winners in this war. I fail to understand why Russia is propping up Assad or why they West want him gone. What is really at stake here? Given the humanitarian crisis that has resulted from this debacle, wouldn't it have been better to let Assad stay on if only for the sake of the country? Clearly Assad doesn't care about his nation because he continues to cling to power as Syrian children a being washed ashore, what is the purpose of being president to a country with no one in it?

https://www.rt.com/news/323379-s400-russia-syria-airbase/

Russia's military options are limited.  Mostly because Turkey is relatively strong militarily.  In that region, it might even be the strongest local military force; a toss between them and Israel to be sure.  Even if it does not escalate beyond a local conflict where the US opts to stay out, Russia cannot fight Turkey in that theater.  Putin, being rational, obviously knows that.

If Russia is to respond, it will have to be through other avenues, like denying Turkey some of its energy resources.  It remains to be seen who blinks first in such a case, given Russia's desperate economic situation.

Putin's real concern is to save face.  He has limited avenues for that.  It looks like publicly introducing the S-400 missiles in the theater is his way of doing that.  It's like he is threatening to shoot down someone's planes in a crowded sky.

[Real P]

Russia's military options are limited.  Mostly because Turkey is relatively strong militarily.  In that region, it might even be the strongest local military force; a toss between them and Israel to be sure.  Even if it does not escalate beyond a local conflict where the US opts to stay out, Russia cannot fight Turkey in that theater.  Putin, being rational, obviously knows that.

If Russia is to respond, it will have to be through other avenues, like denying Turkey some of its energy resources. It remains to be seen who blinks first in such a case, given Russia's desperate economic situation.

Putin's real concern is to save face.  He has limited avenues for that.  It looks like publicly introducing the S-400 missiles in the theater is his way of doing that.  It's like he is threatening to shoot down someone's planes in a crowded sky.

Putin just confirmed that an F-16 Turkish fighter jet (American made war plane - or let's just say United States) had shot down the Russian plane, a Sukhoi Su-24, with an air-to-air missile.

BTW, Syria is turning into a clusterfuck or SNAFU for Putin and Russians. Raising the stakes with Turkey, invading more of Ukraine, and continuing the campaign against ISIS is spreading Russia way too thin. This isn't the first time Russia's tested Turkey's airspace; Erdogan/Americans finally decided to call the bluff.

Shot the Russian fcuker down

Putin says there will be no retaliation against Turkey. He knows United States camouflaging as Turks (A Nato ally) will take him down.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Russia's military options are limited.  Mostly because Turkey is relatively strong militarily.  In that region, it might even be the strongest local military force; a toss between them and Israel to be sure.  Even if it does not escalate beyond a local conflict where the US opts to stay out, Russia cannot fight Turkey in that theater.  Putin, being rational, obviously knows that.

If Russia is to respond, it will have to be through other avenues, like denying Turkey some of its energy resources. It remains to be seen who blinks first in such a case, given Russia's desperate economic situation.

Putin's real concern is to save face.  He has limited avenues for that.  It looks like publicly introducing the S-400 missiles in the theater is his way of doing that.  It's like he is threatening to shoot down someone's planes in a crowded sky.

Putin just confirmed that an F-16 Turkish fighter jet (American made war plane - or let's just say United States) had shot down the Russian plane, a Sukhoi Su-24, with an air-to-air missile.

BTW, Syria is turning into a clusterfuck or SNAFU for Putin and Russians. Raising the stakes with Turkey, invading more of Ukraine, and continuing the campaign against ISIS is spreading Russia way too thin. This isn't the first time Russia's tested Turkey's airspace; Erdogan/Americans finally decided to call the bluff.

Shot the Russian fcuker down

Putin says there will be no retaliation against Turkey. He knows United States camouflaging as Turks (A Nato ally) will take him down.

Turkey does not need the US to defend itself against anyone in that theater.  People tend to overrate Russia's conventional military.  Russia's bargaining stick are nukes.  But that is useless when one considers that Putin is rational.  He knows he cannot use them with impunity.

[Real P]

I understand that Putin's reputation as a "strong" leader is founded on escalation and ruthless retaliation whenever he is challenged, but Turkey does not have a snowball's chance in hell against Russia.

Here is the globefirepower link .....

http://www.globalfirepower.com/

[MOON Ki]

I understand that Putin's reputation as a "strong" leader is founded on escalation and ruthless retaliation whenever he is challenged, but Turkey does not have a snowball's chance in hell against Russia.

Here is the globefirepower link .....

http://www.globalfirepower.com/

Looks good on paper.  So, what is the Russia (and former USSR) record in conventional war?

[Real P]

I understand that Putin's reputation as a "strong" leader is founded on escalation and ruthless retaliation whenever he is challenged, but Turkey does not have a snowball's chance in hell against Russia.

Here is the globefirepower link .....

http://www.globalfirepower.com/

Looks good on paper.  So, what is the Russia (and former USSR) record in conventional war?

Great question BTW, will the so what record you are asking matter if another nuclear bomb is dropped ?

http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/11/russia-vs-turkey-nuclear-war-likely/

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I understand that Putin's reputation as a "strong" leader is founded on escalation and ruthless retaliation whenever he is challenged, but Turkey does not have a snowball's chance in hell against Russia.

Here is the globefirepower link .....

http://www.globalfirepower.com/

Perhaps the Turks should have read their script from www.globalfirepower.com before shooting down the plane.  Maybe they did.  Maybe not.  I think the real issue in Syria is to prevent escalation.  That has always  been the risk since Russia entered the theater. 

The conventional military weakness of Russia is actually cause for concern in such encounters.  Because they don't have many options of responding, that can lead to a higher propensity to revert to the only thing they have; WMD.  Yet Putin is rational.  So no response of a military nature is expected.  They have said they will include the s-400 anti-aircraft missile shield into Syria.  Sabre rattling.  Nothing more.

Russia enjoys a level of impunity in what they call the Near-Abroad(former Soviet Union republics).  They can run over countries like Georgia without worry really.  Interestingly their invasion of Crimea has served to create a new red-line in Ukraine, that didn't exist before.    They have in the process lost Ukraine; kind of. 

I think they also have some freedom of operation in Syria, at the moment open game for everyone with power, especially around Latakia and those parts of Syria still under Assad. 

[Real P]

Maria Ivanovna Shelomova, Putin's mother was JEWISH. I don't understand why United Stated is backing an Islamic state (Turkey) over Israel.

[MOON Ki]

Great question BTW, will the so what record you are asking matter if another nuclear bomb is dropped ?

http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/11/russia-vs-turkey-nuclear-war-likely/

Nuclear war because a plane with two guys got shot down?   Looks like some people have over-dosed on re-runs of Dr. Strangelove or something.

[MOON Ki]

So no response of a military nature is expected. 

Russia now threatens to cut economic ties with Turkey.   Has demanded or expects apologies.   

Turkey  says they won't apologize and would even do it again

and

All (diplomatese for "f***k off"). 

Looks like "nukes of words".

[Real P]

Erdogan is calculating that Putin can't afford to start real shit with Turkey, but he is wrong. China will be joining Putin in a few days, France is already working with him, Israel is keeping mum. They are on Putin side

http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/100915-774990-china-joining-russia-to-humiliate-us-weakened-by-obama.htm

End of the days people

[mya88]

Putin expected Turkey to turn around and make necessary talks with him after downing their plane?????? Russia is just trying to save face, like someone has noted, they have been bullies for a while and now Turkey called their bluff..... They are not going to do much, as far as I can tell.

[Real P]

Putin expected Turkey to turn around and make necessary talks with him after downing their plane?????? Russia is just trying to save face, like someone has noted, they have been bullies for a while and now Turkey called their bluff..... They are not going to do much, as far as I can tell.

Mya, the Turks are scheduling a meeting with Russia. They are not ready for another Hiroshima. Anyway, I won't put my money on an angry Putin, he is unpredictable


http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/27/middleeast/syria-turkey-russia-warplane-shot-down/

[MOON Ki]

Erdogan is calculating that Putin can't afford to start real shit with Turkey, but he is wrong.

I bet he is right.     

France is already working with him.

At their meeting, Hollande insisted that Assad must go, Russia insisted that he must stay.   Talks did not progress much beyond that.

Israel is keeping mum.

Not really.   In addition to lobbing some artillery shells at Syrian army posts: 

Israel will defend its interests in Syria without seeking permission from Russia.

http://freebeacon.com/national-security/following-russian-air-strikes-israeli-defense-minister-says-israel-will-defend-its-interests-in-syria/

As for a world or nuclear war starting over one jet and two guys, during the so-called War of Attrition, the Israelis did more that that---5 jets and 5 pilots in 3 minutes---and the Russians swallowed it.   Israeli press has lately been repeating that story (summary at the above link) by way of some sort of warning.

[MOON Ki]

Mya, the Turks are scheduling a meeting with Russia. They are not ready for another Hiroshima.

The Turkish president just warned Russia not to play with fire.  Actually he called it a recommendation:

"We very sincerely recommend to Russia not to play with fire."

He also added that Russia should apologize for violating their airspace. For good measure, he referred to the threatened economic sanctions as "emotional" and "unfitting".

Doesn't sound like a guy worrying about a "Hiroshima".

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Putin expected Turkey to turn around and make necessary talks with him after downing their plane?????? Russia is just trying to save face, like someone has noted, they have been bullies for a while and now Turkey called their bluff..... They are not going to do much, as far as I can tell.

Mya, the Turks are scheduling a meeting with Russia. They are not ready for another Hiroshima. Anyway, I won't put my money on an angry Putin, he is unpredictable


http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/27/middleeast/syria-turkey-russia-warplane-shot-down/

Nobody is ready for Hiroshima.  That includes Putin.  He knows nuking anyone, is as good as dropping one himself on Moscow.  That should give you an idea where this saga leads to.  It looks like Syria will have to be partitioned.  Sooner or later.