Secondly there is no better way to know if something will work or not apart from trying it.
Indeed. But haven't we already had a trial?
I just got some email from a friend, to the effect that
Safaricom has been down this road before, with some gimmick called
Daktari 1525. That was back in 2011. That too was going to save the Kenyan healthcare system in exactly the same way as the new-and-improved is going to:
Safaricom, Kenya's largest telecoms operator, is trying to take the pressure off overstretched medical and health systems with a new mobile health service. Its 24-hour health advice and referral service is called 'Daktari 1525' and lets people call and speak with a doctor or an expert to get advice on any health issue.
...
The new service hopes to relieve outpatient departments in government hospitals and health facilities with its advice and referrals.
...
Not everyone is convinced the service will work.
http://www.southerninnovator.org/index.php/innovation/195-new-kenyan-services-to-innovate-mobile-health-and-farmingIt appears that there weren't enough
suckers clients to sustain the system. A year later, fees were halved. Another year later and things folded quietly.
One of the things that is different with this new scheme relates to the insurance aspect, of which you write that:
Thirdly and most importantly...this system is leveraging exciting tech...m-shwari customer buy 1 yr medical insurance -cheaply -micro-insurance (CHECK) using M-pesa (as always CHECK) and that allows them the ability to call any contracted doctor any time anywhere....sort of customer care...for 1yr.
On the face of it, this actually looks quite attractive and could well attract people to the new-and-improved. Looking below the surface, I would note that:
* The basic insurance "element" is for KSH 5000 and that's only if a
hospital stay is involved. By the time one pays the annual 300*12 KSH plus the cost of phone calls etc., I'm not sure they would be getting a great deal. Even in Kenya, it should be possible to get insurance at a lesser cost.
* Getting that money requires hospitalization, and their list of conditions does not include many things for which Kenyans end up in hospital. And one can also argue that the annual limit on the insurance payoff for hospitalization is up to KSH 15,000. On that:
- The frequency with which the average person gets hospitalized is actually not very high. Even in Kenya.
- In the list of "acceptable conditions", Malaria and the CHRONICS could easily put one into hospital more than once. But the "fine print" states that once you've claimed on a particular condition, you may not ever again claim on that same condition.
- That means that in order to keep benefitting from the insurance, you must (a) be ill enough to be hospitalized on each occasion and (b) be ill from something that has not previously required hospitalization (as far as that policy is concerned). You have to keep getting very ill from new things.
Let's consider just
one year. So, what is the likelihood that an average person in Kenya will get hospitalized for 3 different things on this list:
And if one manages the first year, what is the probability that one can keep "finding" new things to get hospitalized on?
mya88 wrote that:
Again, a private company's initiative....their aim is profit making.....
Folks have to eat, and that frequently means making money. Nothing wrong with that; the revolution is over and the "capitalist pigs" won. But we should be wary when we see the same at-long-last-salvation! being peddled with the only change being a bit of spit and polish.
It could work, in the sense that the M-* folks could end up making money. That would be great---for them and their shareholders. But radically change the healthcare system in Kenya or have a significant effect on the health of Kenyans?
Alchemy. We'll just have to wait and see.