MoonKi
It is simple Primary School Economics Equation: Supply and Demand. They are creating or enhancing the one part of the equation that is most lethal.
Expect mass deaths as the price of the stuff goes through the roof and addicts seek any alternative.
Whenever I help people to kick the habit - something I have done for a long time - I only know I will succeed if the subject "behaves" him or herself around alcohol. It is essential that they dont fear alcohol. The worst part of it is to condition their sobriety to the unavailability of alcohol. That automatically sends them right back when the alcohol is available - be it because money became available or the alcohol arrived.
People ask what it means to be a teetotaler. It is simple. Alcohol ceases to be important in life. It does not need to be your enemy. Thus I sit with people who drink and I buy it for them (just ask my Chief and other village VIPs). The people who hate alcohol eventually start drinking it as they have unresolved issues. Some are already unapologetic secret alcoholics.
Uhuru's approach is that of a man angry with alcohol (where is Kadame and vooke to help me here). He has enlisted people who do not share the same anger. It is like sending a friend of your enemy to fight him.
The campaign is doomed to fail because there is no way they can get rid of alcohol in Kenya. Already, they have made a distinction between lawful and illegal alcohol. Yet the methods employed give the impression that they have instituted total alcohol prohibition (itself not a bad idea if you wish to create instant Billionaire mafia)
One of the strangest notions in this business is the idea that destroying these supplies and making it difficult to get alcohol will solve the drinking problem. Kenyans have very short memories indeed. All that will happen is that we will now go back to the days of people dying because they drink anything and everything that has some alcohol---industrial cleaners, jet fuel, etc.
That said, the problem is staggering in Central. Figures from NACADA shows that 60% of the drinking takes place before noon---so people are pretty much out of it for the entire day---and it's mostly of hardy, young men who should be ploughing their fields in the morning and ploughing their women in the evening. (The latter have vigorously registered their unhappiness.)
BTW, does anyone what NACADA actually does, beyond the gathering of interesting statistics?