Failed war against Alshabab. 150 attacks killing 500 and maiming more

[RV Pundit]

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http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Al-Shabaab-Attacks-Deaths/-/1056/2779000/-/85u8wjz/-/index.html

[sitting bull]

You have never supported this war since back then when you threw jabs at KDF being stuck in the mud. personally I think it was a good move going into Somali. Where we have failed is internal security,  NIS,  The police, CID and also the immigration dept to some extent and politicians.

[RV Pundit]

I was against the war precisely because
 
1) The war against crazies like those is not easily winnable  -it like sending KDF to hunt down Mungiki or violent criminals in slums--KDF should fight conventional wars--but in Somali Alshaabab simply disappeared into civilians and continue their war.

2) I know nothing can fix our internal security weakness. You cannot attack a next door neighbor without internal defence. It was no rocket science that Alshabaab will inflitrate and extend their wars into Kenya. So we have 150 attacks in about 3 yrs....that is about an attack every week..and still counting..make that 151 as we wake up to Lamu bus attack.

We went to war to allegedly protect tourism...that tourism is now DEAD as dodo.

We have failed in all counts. Except we have installed an illegitimate stooge gov in Kismayu who we have to protect like the US did in Bagdad and Kabul until they gave up, in returns Gen Matumbos are partaking in charcoal and smuggling of goods back to Kenya. Triple whammy.

Somalia will be fixed by Somalis. What we should have done before stirring the hornest nest was EASY.

Erect the wall (simple thorn fence) along Somali -Kenya border and gravel a simple road and send KDF to monitor whoever is coming and going into and out of kenya.

Make sure weapons and smuggled goods are not crossing to kenya like we do in border points at Mombasa, JKIA, Malaba, Busia and etc.

We didn't have to go to war. We should just have enforced border control.

We could have learnt from US failure in Bagdad and Afgan....an expensive failure..but we simply refused.

You have never supported this war since back then when you threw jabs at KDF being stuck in the mud. personally I think it was a good move going into Somali. Where we have failed is internal security,  NIS,  The police, CID and also the immigration dept to some extent and politicians.

[sitting bull]

I think we had very little options and with UG annexing migingo then opening another front east of our country it was impossible to ignore all that..... sitting back and doing nothing was not an option

[RV Pundit]

That curious. Why didn't we go to DRC/Congo instead. I am sure the baby president there would have agreed. If we wanted military proxy war with Uganda. Nobody said we do nothing. We ended piracy in Indian Ocean without stepping into Somalia. We need to realize that Alshabaab were possibly inflitrating our borders. We should have secured our borders by deploying KDF in NEP. And do REAL GENUINE HOT PURSUIT every time attacked us.

Now the comical (if it wasn't tragic) war continues...we rush to Somalia as "hot pursuit" then engage in war and then re-hatted into AMISOM. Alshabaab just did what everyone thought they would do...disappear into civilian...and continue their war....this time extending it further deeper into Kenya.

Now NEP is no go zone for non-muslims. Kenya is no go zone for most tourist. We are losing investments.

Uganda is beating us. TZ is beating us. Beating us where it matters. Tourism,FDI, Security and name them.

I think we had very little options and with UG annexing migingo then opening another front east of our country it was impossible to ignore all that..... sitting back and doing nothing was not an option

[MOON Ki]

My views on this one are very much similar to those of Pundit.   Anyone who believes that the KDF foray into Somalia was a good idea should consider this:

* We have had more deaths and injuries to Kenyans, in Kenya, since KDF went into Somalia than before it did.    And there is little to suggest that this is about to change any time soon.

* In a place like Mandera, this is not the first time; it appears to be the case that Somalian crazies can come, attack, and go almost at will.   Meanwhile, KDF is in Somalia "securing" Kenya!

We went to war to allegedly protect tourism...that tourism is now DEAD as dodo.

All (or most) evidence suggests that Wikileaks are not the fabrication of an active imagination.   On that basis, I will rely on them to point out that:

* GoK had it in mind to go into Somalia long before it actually did, and the reasons had nothing to do with tourism.

* The US government made very strong efforts to dissuade GoK  from such action.   GoK disagreed: in the words of Wetangula (Foreign Minister at the time), sorting out Somalia would be like a "hot knife going through butter"!

Some knife! Some butter!

Somalia will be fixed by Somalis. What we should have done before stirring the hornest nest was EASY.

The sooner this gets into heads, the better off Kenyans will be.   

Now NEP is no go zone for non-muslims.

One of the ironies of GOK's misadventures is that Al Kebab has finally managed to achieve what the Shifta War did not: apart from the fact that some tax money goes there, NEP is, de facto, part of Somalia; those of Somalian ethnicity are probably OK there, but other Kenyans are definitely not welcome.

[RV Pundit]

This will go down as Kibaki monumental failure in addition to PEV crisis. But Uhuru has inherited this and seem the stupidity continues. Both opposition (CORD) and Jubilee are in this together which is very strange. Not even Raila is calling for a review of this war.

My views on this one are very much similar to those of Pundit.   Anyone who believes that the KDF foray into Somalia was a good idea should consider this:

* We have had more deaths and injuries to Kenyans, in Kenya, since KDF went into Somalia than before it did.    And there is little to suggest that this is about to change any time soon.

* In a place like Mandera, this is not the first time; it appears to be the case that Somalian crazies can come, attack, and go almost at will.   Meanwhile, KDF is in Somalia "securing" Kenya!

We went to war to allegedly protect tourism...that tourism is now DEAD as dodo.

All (or most) evidence suggests that Wikileaks are not the fabrication of an active imagination.   On that basis, I will rely on them to point out that:

* GoK had it in mind to go into Somalia long before it actually did, and the reasons had nothing to do with tourism.

* The US government made very strong efforts to dissuade GoK  from such action.   GoK disagreed: in the words of Wetangula (Foreign Minister at the time), sorting out Somalia would be like a "hot knife going through butter"!

Some knife! Some butter!

Somalia will be fixed by Somalis. What we should have done before stirring the hornest nest was EASY.

The sooner this gets into heads, the better off Kenyans will be.   

Now NEP is no go zone for non-muslims.

One of the ironies of GOK's misadventures is that Al Kebab has finally managed to achieve what the Shifta War did not: apart from the fact that some tax money goes there, NEP is, de facto, part of Somalia; those of Somalian ethnicity are probably OK there, but other Kenyans are definitely not welcome.

[Kadudu]

The problem is Uhuru has not only inherited Kibaki's military reliance he has deeped himself even further than Kibaki. Today Uhuru relies on either former or current military guys on most issues especially security. Military guys only know kifua and very little diplomacy.

I remember in the 80's as Moi's relationship to Museveni was at its lowest and the military was for war against Uganda. Moi did not sucumb to their pressure and he decided to let temperatures cool down. Imagine had he listened to those goons, where would we be today? Refugees in Tz?

KDF is in Somalia now to make cash. The top brass is in makaa, sugar, miraa, goods smuggling etc. in cohort with Al Kebab. Sounds strange but Al Kebab is surviving on cash generated through business with KDF.

Also the military budget has sky rocketed. This means our disciplined boys have a lot of room to siphon cash through procurement. Since even the Auditor General against the constituition has not been allowed to look through their books, all is open for manupilation.

My suggestion, get out of Somalia. Let soldiers from Tz or another African country with no shared border to Somalia go there and try make order.

This will go down as Kibaki monumental failure in addition to PEV crisis. But Uhuru has inherited this and seem the stupidity continues. Both opposition (CORD) and Jubilee are in this together which is very strange. Not even Raila is calling for a review of this war.

[RV Pundit]

Excellent illuminating post Kadudu. I think we are in this for a long haul. And with crazies spreading all over middle east and north africa....this will be painfully for those living in NEP, Coast and eventually everyone within the sphere of Alshabaab influence.

The problem is Uhuru has not only inherited Kibaki's military reliance he has deeped himself even further than Kibaki. Today Uhuru relies on either former or current military guys on most issues especially security. Military guys only know kifua and very little diplomacy.

I remember in the 80's as Moi's relationship to Museveni was at its lowest and the military was for war against Uganda. Moi did not sucumb to their pressure and he decided to let temperatures cool down. Imagine had he listened to those goons, where would we be today? Refugees in Tz?

KDF is in Somalia now to make cash. The top brass is in makaa, sugar, miraa, goods smuggling etc. in cohort with Al Kebab. Sounds strange but Al Kebab is surviving on cash generated through business with KDF.

Also the military budget has sky rocketed. This means our disciplined boys have a lot of room to siphon cash through procurement. Since even the Auditor General against the constituition has not been allowed to look through their books, all is open for manupilation.

My suggestion, get out of Somalia. Let soldiers from Tz or another African country with no shared border to Somalia go there and try make order.

This will go down as Kibaki monumental failure in addition to PEV crisis. But Uhuru has inherited this and seem the stupidity continues. Both opposition (CORD) and Jubilee are in this together which is very strange. Not even Raila is calling for a review of this war.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

You have never supported this war since back then when you threw jabs at KDF being stuck in the mud. personally I think it was a good move going into Somali. Where we have failed is internal security,  NIS,  The police, CID and also the immigration dept to some extent and politicians.

I also thought it was necessary to invade Somalia and pursue a program to pacify Jubbaland in the image of Somaliland.

In retrospect it was a bad move.  Because Kenya is too corrupt to go to war. 

[Kadudu]

Hapo umedinya point kali.

In retrospect it was a bad move.  Because Kenya is too corrupt to go to war.

[RV Pundit]

Too corrupt and too ethnically divided. NEP Somalis will most likely give a pass to Alshabaab. Heck they can even house them. The same is true for most of areas with muslims. A silent majority of kenyan muslims already felt disenfranchised and are routing for Alshabaab and other jihadist crazies.

One last critical mistake that we made  is to underrate the somalis ability to wage war forever. Somalis are as hard up as Talibans. It comes with territory. Those are desert warriors who will fight and fight....and they won't give up in easily.

My theory is that it easy to intervene in some countries without history of warfare....it worked in most of subsahara africa were folks are farmers...but in supra sahara...where folks are hardened it plain hopeless...to imagine you can go in and quickly get done.

Kenyans are too proud to admit they cannot beat those crazies in their natural habitat. Yet they cannot even pacify some few pokots.

Hapo umedinya point kali.

In retrospect it was a bad move.  Because Kenya is too corrupt to go to war.

[MOON Ki]

You have never supported this war since back then when you threw jabs at KDF being stuck in the mud. personally I think it was a good move going into Somali. Where we have failed is internal security,  NIS,  The police, CID and also the immigration dept to some extent and politicians.

I also thought it was necessary to invade Somalia and pursue a program to pacify Jubbaland in the image of Somaliland.

In retrospect it was a bad move.  Because Kenya is too corrupt to go to war. 

Kenya is definitely too corrupt to go to war.  Not too long ago, there was some talk of a wall, which (presumably with eating) got reduced to a fence, and then that was that.   Some NYS types were shown on TV,  digging a 50m trench, and the matter was then quickly forgotten.  It is just as well that it was all talk: If, and when, the wall/fence ever gets constructed, you can be sure that there will be money to be made: how big would you like the hole, sir?  and that will be a 50% premium if you want it near a nice beach as opposed to some random place in the desert.

"Logistics" aside, the essence of the US objection was that GoK would be going out of its way to antagonize people who were better off left alone.   Looking at the Wikileaks etc, Wetangula and Co did have some legitimate points.   What they missed, and what the USA was trying to point out, was the implications of a complete think-through.   

[Omollo]

It is possible to get entangled in a war and get out intact. That however depends on the type if war.

A war where there are firmly held positions; The military factions are well defined and above all are engaged in a conventional war is quite "easy" within the meaning of war. That does not mean there would be no casualties.

For example, Kenya could have chosen to arm one or two factions in Somalia. In that event such a decision should have been based on the best of the machiavellian National interests. The way I see it those are just two:

1. Keep Somalia as weak as possible so that it never threaten Kenyan territorial and economic interests
2. Keep the war completely out Kenya and contain it within Somalia, ensuring internal security so Kenya's national economic self interests can prosper.

Now you can add a third where we would feel good with ourselves. That would entail providing humanitarian aid but arrange it so that it would benefit Kenyan agriculture and manufacturing industry.

If it sounds callous in the extreme, take note that it is

Going in to Somalia run by warlords was an open ended invitation for them to expand their "catchment area" to valuables and fresh pickings from Kenya. War Lords never aim to win a war. They are in for the plunder. They may expand territory under them only as much as it would benefit their money making machine. They do not build but destroy. When they move to a new area, other than the usual atrocities such as rape and summary executions, they concentrate on pillaging. They are the modern day Huns. They seize factories and roll cables and reverse any form of "development" and improvements leaving the land desolate. They find a market for everything they loot. I saw ships loading bricks and used iron sheets to transport to Nigeria and Asia.

Now think of just how they are salivating at what they can find in Kenya and understand why we have to get out in a hurry.