High probability of another Revolution in Kenya.

[Githunguri]

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On one hand you have GEMA who are very disgruntled.

With the ODM disintegration and Sifuna Ouster,You have another group of angry Luhyas and pockets of Jaluo who don't want Oburu.

Unlike 2024,When Raila saved Ruto presidency,Now Ruto doesn't have anyone to save him incase of protests.

Kambas and Kisiis are ANTI-RUTO.

The church has abandoned him completely.

The moment these forces merge,They may march to statehouse.

Remember you cannot trust kenyan security apparatus because no tribe has monopoly in the police  army or intelligence.

The moment protests begin in Busia Kakamega Machakos Thika Nairobi Nyeri,We may see a revolution in Kenya.

As of now,Ruto has no political capital beyond Rift valley.Its slippery.

Very high probability.

[Githunguri]

https://www.youtube.com/live/9cw7xTi7rl4?si=QSQg6Dh8lGrt8HDk

Organic crowd.One more trigger and the nation becomes ungovernable.

[RV Pundit]

Delusion. One tear gas.

[Modesty Blaise]

On one hand you have GEMA who are very disgruntled.

With the ODM disintegration and Sifuna Ouster,You have another group of angry Luhyas and pockets of Jaluo who don't want Oburu.

Unlike 2024,When Raila saved Ruto presidency,Now Ruto doesn't have anyone to save him incase of protests.

Kambas and Kisiis are ANTI-RUTO.

The church has abandoned him completely.

The moment these forces merge,They may march to statehouse.

Remember you cannot trust kenyan security apparatus because no tribe has monopoly in the police  army or intelligence.

The moment protests begin in Busia Kakamega Machakos Thika Nairobi Nyeri,We may see a revolution in Kenya.

As of now,Ruto has no political capital beyond Rift valley.Its slippery.

Very high probability.

Elections are around the corner so the mob will wait to skin Ruto next year.

[Modesty Blaise]

Poor Ruto,
he rose on populism, selling bottom-up voodoo,
now there is nothing to sell.

It akin to Kibaki NARC wave,
basically it was weak opposition + Kanu rebels..
then the Kanu camps regrouped and almost sank the country when Kibaki rigged. 

Ruto lost half of his coalition in raw greed to take all power,
betting on Raila to take few crumbs as usual,
now it impossible to man vast unwieldy ODM base,

Those who critique Ruto fail to see Raila demise was unforeseeable.
Worse than the death of Kijana Wamalwa under Kibaki.

[Modesty Blaise]

Ruto has try to run around with Nyota,
dishing 50k to youth
but money is unscalable just like police violence.

Ruto knows this,
so he has created new story called Singapore.
basically a bunch of infra projects he claim will transform Kenya.

It a very hard sell,
cause what people feel is huge tax,
they don't care about shiny road or stadium or Galana Kulalu
unless you give them hard cash.

To give 50k to 100k youth - you need 5B
and that's 1% of youth 
it waste of money... the rest 99% feel discriminated.
10% of youth need 50B
and that still leave 90% angry and jobless