Africa still largely the dark continent when it come to power

[RV Pundit]

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Despite our small excitement about generating 5,000MW by 2017....40% of all power/electricity in Africa still comes from RSA with more than 40,000MW!! --mostly from coal

Kenya now generates 2,300MW..electricity access to household..around 32%.

The same case with many other Africa countries.

We need something akin to telcom revolution to change this...and join the developed world.

[Omollo]

The trick lies in ending the Distribution Monopoly and the Generation Oligopoly.

Kenya should establish a clear enabling environment where any investor can set up, generate and sell electricity. The most untapped resource are the small rivers. GoK and the big investors looking for huge returns find these unattractive. Thus County governments could be persuaded to invest in these.

I know of many places in Pundit's Bomett where small scale dams could generate enough electricity to both supply Bomet and Kericho and earn Ruto's government a steady income. It is not the only county with such unlimited though small possibilities. Nandi, Kakamega and Vihiga have long rivers meandering through their lands to deposit water in Lake Victoria for the ungrateful Arabs. The Yala for example can support multiple HEP stations stretching from Nandi all the way to Nyanza.

Nobody - not even a county government - is going to invest in something that will only enrich other people. Why would my adopted people at the Coast allow their county government to invest in the generation of electricity which they would be forced to sell cheaply only to buy at four times the sale price?

That can change if the county is allowed to own a power distribution company as well. It can then compete with others including KPLC for customers.

It is now ancient technology where a person in Tanzania can buy electricity from a supplier in North Eastern Province. Why then are we shouting about the East African Community when there is no common market involving things that matter. Allowing mama mbogas to cross the border to sell their wares is not what I think of when whole Presidents mention the EA Common Market! I expect to see TANESCO selling electricity in Kenya and KPLC competing for customers in Rwanda. Safaricom should run services in Uganda even as ZANTEL would do in Rwanda. All this should happen without seeking government approval at every step.

In many European countries there is a "Stock Market" for electricity. Prices are indicated and consumers may decide to choose any supplier. It is such that the pressure is on the companies to lower prices. Arrogant raising of prices is a thing of the past. Any smell of collusion ends with a long jail term and confiscation of any "profit" from that along with an earth shattering fine designed to shake the foundations of the perpetrating companies.

On a micro scale, GoK should subsidize individuals seeking to set up alternative energy sources. All solar, Windmill and Biogas equipment to be used in the production of energy should be zero rated (if not yet). There should be no taxes. That means the transporter of the same from the port to the door should be exempted from VAT and other hidden charges. See what zero rating of computers and mobiles did for that industry. When I visited Kenya a year after it had been implemented, there were more advanced mobile phones and laptops, tablets etc than where I had come from.

Lastly, every good idea is ruined by corruption. Park Chung Hee had to resort to draconian measures to slow down the corruption that was derailing his massive economic agenda. To do that meant he had to hit at people close to him. Of course they hit back and eventually shot his wife dead as he addressed a meeting and later himself (by his own intelligence chief). He paid a heavy personal price to earn his place in history as the man who transformed Korea

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Omollo thanks for mentioning Park Chung Hee.  I have never heard of him before.  He seems to have had the Moi/Kenyatta approach with a good dose of integrity.

I have always found the factors for sustainable economic growth to be very confounding.  Does the infrastructure come first or does it follow demand?  Either way, integrity seems like an absolute must. 

[Omollo]

Basically Park Chung Hee was an enlightened Dictator who created the Chinese Model with American money. He used the North Korean "threat" to bleed Washington of money. American money financed infrastructure (to prepare for a possible Soviet Backed North Korean attack). He resorted to stealing American and Western technology and then later improving on it so that the counterfeit became better than the original!

He used local oligarchs and mafia who were wiling to meet his objectives.

It is the same way Pakistan is exploiting Afghanistan to get American cash and pump in to infrastructure. Kenya sold herself cheap over Somalia and South Sudan.

Omollo thanks for mentioning Park Chung Hee.  I have never heard of him before.  He seems to have had the Moi/Kenyatta approach with a good dose of integrity.

I have always found the factors for sustainable economic growth to be very confounding.  Does the infrastructure come first or does it follow demand?  Either way, integrity seems like an absolute must. 

[MOON Ki]

Omollo thanks for mentioning Park Chung Hee.  I have never heard of him before.

He was a much rougher version of what Lee Kwan Yew was to Singapore.  Detested in his time, but some of his better deeds are now appreciated.  He has been forgiven to the extent that his daughter, Park Geun-Hye, is the current president of S. Korea.

[Omollo]

History can be forgiving to an achiever. Sadly we have no such people in Africa. Perhaps Mugabe and his Land Reform will in future be looked at differently.

Omollo thanks for mentioning Park Chung Hee.  I have never heard of him before.

He was a much rougher version of what Lee Kwan Yew was to Singapore.  Detested in his time, but some of his better deeds are now appreciated.  He has been forgiven to the extent that his daughter, Park Geun-Hye, is the current president of S. Korea.

[MOON Ki]

The most untapped resource are the small rivers. GoK and the big investors looking for huge returns find these unattractive. Thus County governments could be persuaded to invest in these.

Generally, we have always been slow to use water as a source of energy.   Consider, for example, what watermills did elsewhere in the world for ages.

And you are quite right on the use of rivers for "small power generation"; perhaps there is too much of a focus on "big power generation".    Here is an interesting report from a couple of years ago:

" The overall hydropower potential of Kenya, estimated in 1991, amounts to approximately 30,000 GWh/year, representing 6,000 MW of installed capacity. It is also estimated that almost over half the potential is attributable to small rivers."


http://www.smallhydroworld.org/fileadmin/user_upload/pdf/Africa_Eastern/WSHPDR_2013_Kenya.pdf

There are also some interesting projects underway that are not well-publicized but show the type of thing that has quite a bit of potential:

"CCKL is developing a 12MW biomass-fueled, on-grid electricity generation project in Baringo County, Kenya."

http://nairobi.usembassy.gov/cumminsbaringo.html

Beyond electricity, the projects will have a direct effect on employment, incomes, etc. 

[RV Pundit]

A few years ago...the whole of Africa had less phones than Manhattan island...and more than half of the phones were in Joburg. This has changed thanks to mobile tech. Although power connection has accelerated lately...from mere 12% to 32% in kenya..which is a near 3 fold growth in about 10yrs!!!...we still need to do more.Is there effective demand for electricity to make it profitable for everyone. I say there is pent up demand at personal level. In a typical house in kenya you have several phones, a tv, a radio and of course night lighting...power actors just need to innovate around that..no need sending 3 phase  power down there...when little power lines that cost less can meet those demands.

The hard part will be industrialisation...that typically consumes most power everywhere including in RSA...this is the chicken-egg situation....you need cheap reliable power to attract manufacturers....something we cannot achieve without subsidizing.

The way forward is to subsidize power for industrial users...treasury get to pick the tabs...and in process we have more taxes and cheap goods.

Until we kick start manufacturing in big way.....we will not get anywhere.

[Omollo]

I hear you. Norway achieved self sufficiency and became a net exporter of electricity by tapping the small rivers. Kenya should go the same way but care must be taken to ensure that the environment is not unduly damaged.

I have always wondered why there is no Rivers and Lakes Authority. The mandate which is erroneously ceded to NEMA is theirs. They should be the custodians of Riparian Lands and regulate the usage of water. Only they can grant permission for people living on slopes to cultivate their land subject to anti-soil erosion measures. You will notice that there are seasonal rivers in Eastern - especially Ukambani. These were destroyed when Mzungu sought to destroy Kamba cattle and do away with competition. These rivers are viable if the original forest cover that formed the water catchment is restored. One can see clean shaven hills in Kamba land. That would be the mandate of Rivers and Lakes Authority. I have seen how a similar body has done wonders in Pakistan PAKISTAN WATER AND POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY

The most untapped resource are the small rivers. GoK and the big investors looking for huge returns find these unattractive. Thus County governments could be persuaded to invest in these.

Generally, we have always been slow to use water as a source of energy.   Consider, for example, what watermills did elsewhere in the world for ages.

And you are quite right on the use of rivers for "small power generation"; perhaps there is too much of a focus on "big power generation". 

Beyond electricity, the projects will have a direct effect on employment, incomes, etc. 

[Mr Mansfield.]

Its a business opportunity but solution lies in state liberalizing the sector,current laws are used to lock people out of business,

Without Prejudice.

[MOON Ki]

Little is heard these days of this funny idea, but some Kenyans are still making good money in labouring at the Kenya Nuclear Electricity Board:

http://www.nuclear.co.ke/

Supposedly a key part of Vision 3020  2030.

"Nuclear Power Plant by 2022"   (That's 7 years from now.)

http://www.nuclear.co.ke/index.php/media-centre/press-releases/320-nuclear-power-plant-by-2022

Sigh.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Little is heard these days of this funny idea, but some Kenyans are still making good money in labouring at the Kenya Nuclear Electricity Board:

http://www.nuclear.co.ke/

Supposedly a key part of Vision 3020  2030.

"Nuclear Power Plant by 2022"   (That's 7 years from now.)

http://www.nuclear.co.ke/index.php/media-centre/press-releases/320-nuclear-power-plant-by-2022

Sigh.

Having little time to waste, they have a tender for supplies http://www.nuclear.co.ke/images/news/PRE-QUALIFICATION%20OF%20SUPPLIERS-KNEB.pdf.

PR materials.  Furniture.  Fresh milk.  Security guards.  Taxi/Car hire.  Hotel accomodation services...

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Omollo thanks for mentioning Park Chung Hee.  I have never heard of him before.

He was a much rougher version of what Lee Kwan Yew was to Singapore.  Detested in his time, but some of his better deeds are now appreciated.  He has been forgiven to the extent that his daughter, Park Geun-Hye, is the current president of S. Korea.

So he was like Kagame in some ways.  But somehow got things that people wanted to be produced in his country. 

It looks like a lot of these countries don't necessarily have enviable records in terms of human rights, or even corruption to some extent.  Yet, there is something they have done, that just can't seem to be done in a black ruled nation.  I can't quite put a finger on that.  You almost want to go back and compare month by month from the 60s what these folks did that Africans did not.

Is the African culturally defective to be industrialized?

[MOON Ki]

So he was like Kagame in some ways.

Far from it.  Kagame has done a good job of milking international guilt over the 1994 genocide, but that's about it.  The dependency on foreign aid is incredible.   Even the laptops-for-toddlers that gave Uhuru his misplaced idea ... Rwanda got theirs for free.

It looks like a lot of these countries don't necessarily have enviable records in terms of human rights, or even corruption to some extent. 

I lived in Asia for many years, and I would caution comparisons on corruption.  In Singapore, I observed first hand Lee Kwan Yew's hard first: he decided from the very beginning that corruption, however small, would be dealt with swiftly and very harshly.  That's how it's been done, and it works.

In South Korea, there is much more corruption than in Singapore, but it's not of the debilitating nature that you have in places like Kenya or Nigeria.   A typical example is the Samsung Group making illegal soft loans to its affiliates or bribing a politician to allow it to build a factory where it shouldn't (which factory, of course, adds to employment and GDP), or a politician illegally accepting campaign donations from some industrial type.  Otherwise, the kind of corruption we generally think of is almost non-existent.

To get an idea of the attitude towards Kenyan-style corruption, consider this: Roh Moo-Hyun, South Korea's president from 2003-2008 committed suicide in 2009 because some of his family members had been accused of corruption.  His suicide note said that he was "deeply ashamed".   The corruption charges?   I think they included things like borrowed---not stolen!---money to pay for somebody's studies in the USA.    And it was his relatives, not him, that did whatever.    But he was just the most high-profile one: even in the last 10 years, quite a few major politicians in SK have done "the honourable" thing when accused of corruption.   Hard to imagine that happening on The Beloved Continent?

Is the African culturally defective to be industrialized?

An interesting question.   Many years ago, I attended a public talk by Lee Kwan Yew, and as the only African present, I wished ... His comments included a few anecdotes that I think he later included in his autobiography.    One of them involved his efforts to work with African governments:

Incredible as it might seem, there is a video of Tough-Man Lee weeping in public.   The occasion was when Singapore got kicked out of the Malay Federation.   Lee thought his tiny country couldn't survive on its own, which is why it had ganged up with Malaysia in the first place.    Anyways ... having been kicked out, he thought his best partners might be the "newly free" African countries.    So he jumped into a plane and did a little African tour.  To cut it short, he thought too many countries were being run by jokers.   His exact words were that they were "parodies of countries".   

So, what exactly ails Mwafrika?   It's certainly not a lack of intelligent people or anything of the like.   Nor is it a failure to dream big.    But even when people are not finishing each other in "routine tribal clashes" that end up as civil wars---what is S. Sudan all about and does it have to happen?---the results can be seen in Peaceful Kenya (Economic Powerhouse Of East Africa, Growing at 6+%): Vision 2030 is largely a joke.   It's as though people think that as long as they set lofty goals and keep repeating them, then all will happen.    Not!

To my mind---as I have stated elsewhere---one of the first things African countries need to focus on is real and serious human development.   And they should also learn from the history of others ... move beyond East or West always "helping" and start to do for themselves.  Look beyond dining out on digging stuff out of the ground to sell to strangers.    Try something other than borrowing 1% of GDP and then saying "this will increase our GDP by at least 1%".  And, above all, stop blaming others for their situation or expecting others to "develop" them.

Africa actually has all it needs, whether it's stuff in the ground, or land, or the cheap labour  that others have used to propel themselves forward.   What is lacking are (a) a real vision, not some Vision 3020 2030, and real leadership, not criminal jokers.

To be continued ...

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Interesting story on Lee Kuan Yew.  I am just learning things that had existed only in my blind spot.  So it looks like Lee Kuan Yew realized a long time ago that the African leader dances to a different tune https://archive.org/details/TheCrisisOfLeadershipInAfricaTheObservationsOfLeeKwanYew

[MOON Ki]

Interesting story on Lee Kuan Yew.  I am just learning things that had existed only in my blind spot.  So it looks like Lee Kuan Yew realized a long time ago that the African leader dances to a different tune https://archive.org/details/TheCrisisOfLeadershipInAfricaTheObservationsOfLeeKwanYew

A very interesting audio.  Thanks for posting it, although it's a bit depressing to be reminded of how early the rot set in on The Beloved Continent.   (It is focused on Nigeria and Ghana, but Lee has even "funnier" stories about a couple of other countries.)

Africa's tragedy is about a failure in leadership and a failure to learn.   Other than that, little else is lacking.   Consider this: even with 50+ years of "African experience", the newest African country---S. Sudan, with all its  oil and after years of mayhem---has decided to go the "traditional" way: Rebels vs. Government.   We all know how that one always ends.

Let's reflect on this one for a minute: The President of Kenya gets up in public and tells his citizens that his own office is the leader in national corruption. Naturally, the citizens have expectations---problem identified, then problem solved.  His Excellency says time's up!  And then?

[RV Pundit]

I doubt corruption and failed leadership is as important as Africa's population explosion. Look at south Korea...25M folks in 1960...and now mere 50M people. Look at kenya...6M folks....and 44M now...and that despite high mortality along the way. China 500M in 60s...1.3b now.

On average you can see most south asia have merely doubled their population in 50yrs...while we have on average grown 7-8 times!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!   You can't develop either at micro (family) or macro level when you're busy popping out kids every day.

If you look at kenya growth rates...from 1960s to 1980....it was nearly toe to toe with South Korea[kenya was growing at double digit for most of 70s]...but of course we were popping more kids along the way.

It easy to blame leadership and politician..but look at kenya...where we have been changing leaders....the problem is beyond our politician...it is with mwafrika...taking responsibility.

There are few african countries that have no leadership or corruption issues...Namibia, Botswana, Mauritius, Seychelles and name them...but are they really developed? I am talking about the natives of those countries..not whites or indians or others running the show.

For me Africa will turn the tide when they manage to control their population explosion.

[RV Pundit]

Given this South Korea[or any asian tiger] versus Kenya analogy will be harped on severally; Let us look at the data.

1960-1990--South Korea average 8 percent GDP growth per year..10% till 1972..world oil price shocks reduce it 7%..and pick up in mid 80s..back 10%.

1960-1990--Kenya economy averages 7%...until the 80s..where the average i think is 6%.

The same is true for most of Asia tigers. So kenya was not doing badly at all.

The difference...per capita income btw Kenya and asia tigers....we were breeding like rats...and they were siring 1 or 2 kids...so their per capita was rising through the roof...ours was stuck there or even regressing.

And the  in 90s till 2002...we completely lost it with mega looting and IMF/WB sanctions..while South Korea kept the tempo growing at 10% or about.

Right now we have a great opportunity to replicate Asian tigers model...because we are now growing...while number of kids per woman has dropped to 3-4...and will continue to drop...so household now have more money feeding less mouths.

[Omollo]

I think this is best dealt with under some bilateral agreement (Gov - Gov).

Little is heard these days of this funny idea, but some Kenyans are still making good money in labouring at the Kenya Nuclear Electricity Board:

http://www.nuclear.co.ke/

Supposedly a key part of Vision 3020  2030.

"Nuclear Power Plant by 2022"   (That's 7 years from now.)

http://www.nuclear.co.ke/index.php/media-centre/press-releases/320-nuclear-power-plant-by-2022

Sigh.

Having little time to waste, they have a tender for supplies http://www.nuclear.co.ke/images/news/PRE-QUALIFICATION%20OF%20SUPPLIERS-KNEB.pdf.

PR materials.  Furniture.  Fresh milk.  Security guards.  Taxi/Car hire.  Hotel accomodation services...

[Omollo]

Pay attention to the money the US was pouring in to Korea around the same time. Count everything from Military aid, to US money used in Korea on American soldiers stationed there. Include infrastructure and other facilities constructed by the US in Korea for US troops and part of the US defense. A number of Nuclear Plants (initially top secret) were constructed under these arrangements.

Kenya did not get 1% of what the US expended in and on Korea.

One can compare Korea, Kenya and the Philippines. Population wise, Kenya and the Philippines can be weighed together. However American investment and in-country expenditure is not comparable.

Given this South Korea[or any asian tiger] versus Kenya analogy will be harped on severally; Let us look at the data.

1960-1990--South Korea average 8 percent GDP growth per year..10% till 1972..world oil price shocks reduce it 7%..and pick up in mid 80s..back 10%.

1960-1990--Kenya economy averages 7%...until the 80s..where the average i think is 6%.

The same is true for most of Asia tigers. So kenya was not doing badly at all.

The difference...per capita income btw Kenya and asia tigers....we were breeding like rats...and they were siring 1 or 2 kids...so their per capita was rising through the roof...ours was stuck there or even regressing.

And the  in 90s till 2002...we completely lost it with mega looting and IMF/WB sanctions..while South Korea kept the tempo growing at 10% or about.

Right now we have a great opportunity to replicate Asian tigers model...because we are now growing...while number of kids per woman has dropped to 3-4...and will continue to drop...so household now have more money feeding less mouths.