My prediction for 27th by-election

[RV Pundit]

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Big winners.
1) Kindiki

Big Losers
1) Natembeya - TKOed.
2) Gachagua

[Modesty Blaise]

https://publish.twitter.com/?url=

Our latest survey shows Boyd solidifying his dominance in Kasipul Constituency with a commanding 55.1% support. His sustained growth reflects strong grassroots connection and consistent visibility within the constituency. Philip, polling at 29.5%, remains a distant second,… pic.twitter.com/CDqRwaFQVI

— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) November 8, 2025

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[Modesty Blaise]

Malava and Mbeere let us see in a few days.

What I really see there is
1) Ruto/UDA consolidation of pastoralist vote. Banisa, Turkana, Samburu, etc. No more ODM or Jubilee there.
2) ODM implosion. Losing Luo Nyanza to independents (who have no Raila to swear allegiance to) is bad.
3) Clearly UDA has not consolidated Mijikenda/Coast which is a weakness as ODM implodes.

The other big loser you miss is Matiang'i. Kindiki, Riggy or Natembeya are fighting hard for their turfs - but Matiang'i is losing without a fight. The pompous fool is ignoring his tribal base and banking on GenZ voodoo. Who does that!

[RV Pundit]

This one is my wild card pick.

https://publish.twitter.com/?url=

Our latest survey shows Boyd solidifying his dominance in Kasipul Constituency with a commanding 55.1% support. His sustained growth reflects strong grassroots connection and consistent visibility within the constituency. Philip, polling at 29.5%, remains a distant second,… pic.twitter.com/CDqRwaFQVI

— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) November 8, 2025

#

[RV Pundit]

Opposition will lose in Malava and Mbeere because polls are too tight - which mean incumbency will rig/bribe kidogo to flip the game.
Kiambaa Ka-wanjiku had 20% polling advantage - but it came down 50-100 votes.

Matiangi win or lose = LOSER - there is NO JUBILEE anywhere - he was campaign for PDP and another party in Nyamira - he might even lose his home ground in Matiangi.

Gachagua -  Mt kenya east - if he wins - he harvest - if he loses - Ruto will kick out in many parts of mt kenya. He is playing in Maasailand, has one wild card in Coast, and Malala Luhya. He is likely to pick 1 or 2 in Maasailand where Kikuyus can pick a good Maasai.

Natembeya - He is trying to upstage Wamalwa - so big night for him - If DAP wins Malava he will forget Tranzoia - if DAP fails in Malava, Bungoma ward and Kakamega ward - he is finished - he will have to retreat to defend his governor position.

Big night for Kindiki - he wins - he retain DPORK - he loses - he loses everything - ODM gains everything he has.


My thoughts are on X.

https://x.com/Bygones_24/status/1992476091022442946

Malava and Mbeere let us see in a few days.

What I really see there is
1) Ruto/UDA consolidation of pastoralist vote. Banisa, Turkana, Samburu, etc. No more ODM or Jubilee there.
2) ODM implosion. Losing Luo Nyanza to independents (who have no Raila to swear allegiance to) is bad.
3) Clearly UDA has not consolidated Mijikenda/Coast which is a weakness as ODM implodes.

The other big loser you miss is Matiang'i. Kindiki, Riggy or Natembeya are fighting hard for their turfs - but Matiang'i is losing without a fight. The pompous fool is ignoring his tribal base and banking on GenZ voodoo. Who does that!

[Modesty Blaise]

I agree Matiang'i is a pompous fool. Ironically he is the most secure. Gusii lack even a Natembeya calibre so they will still cut him slack if he gets his shit together soon.

What I see overall:
-If Ruto wins big as you predict - it is game over for 2027. Opposition needs to win and stick together to stand a chance. They are more desperate than Ruto.
-If Ruto loses both Mbeere and Malava - we have 50-50 scenario. Where Ruto and Kalonzo stand a chance and it depends who plays it better next 2 years.

ODM is tricky even if Ruto loses Mbeere and Malava. Wanga or Mbadi was supposed to be Raila pawn but now that is up in the air. They only give him solid Luo with DPORK. Even Joho cannot deliver Coast because he is weak in Mijikenda. But Ruto is a star player so we have a real derby if he is cornered on Nov 27.

Opposition will lose in Malava and Mbeere because polls are too tight - which mean incumbency will rig/bribe kidogo to flip the game.
Kiambaa Ka-wanjiku had 20% polling advantage - but it came down 50-100 votes.

Matiangi win or lose = LOSER - there is NO JUBILEE anywhere - he was campaign for PDP and another party in Nyamira - he might even lose his home ground in Matiangi.

Gachagua -  Mt kenya east - if he wins - he harvest - if he loses - Ruto will kick out in many parts of mt kenya. He is playing in Maasailand, has one wild card in Coast, and Malala Luhya. He is likely to pick 1 or 2 in Maasailand where Kikuyus can pick a good Maasai.

Natembeya - He is trying to upstage Wamalwa - so big night for him - If DAP wins Malava he will forget Tranzoia - if DAP fails in Malava, Bungoma ward and Kakamega ward - he is finished - he will have to retreat to defend his governor position.

Big night for Kindiki - he wins - he retain DPORK - he loses - he loses everything - ODM gains everything he has.


My thoughts are on X.

https://x.com/Bygones_24/status/1992476091022442946

[RV Pundit]

I agree. Mbeere is mortal blow for Kindiki. Natembeya has also set himself for big night. Everyone else will survive. Gachagua will still fight.

I agree Matiang'i is a pompous fool. Ironically he is the most secure. Gusii lack even a Natembeya calibre so they will still cut him slack if he gets his shit together soon.

What I see overall:
-If Ruto wins big as you predict - it is game over for 2027. Opposition needs to win and stick together to stand a chance. They are more desperate than Ruto.
-If Ruto loses both Mbeere and Malava - we have 50-50 scenario. Where Ruto and Kalonzo stand a chance and it depends who plays it better next 2 years.

ODM is tricky even if Ruto loses Mbeere and Malava. Wanga or Mbadi was supposed to be Raila pawn but now that is up in the air. They only give him solid Luo with DPORK. Even Joho cannot deliver Coast because he is weak in Mijikenda. But Ruto is a star player so we have a real derby if he is cornered on Nov 27.

Opposition will lose in Malava and Mbeere because polls are too tight - which mean incumbency will rig/bribe kidogo to flip the game.
Kiambaa Ka-wanjiku had 20% polling advantage - but it came down 50-100 votes.

Matiangi win or lose = LOSER - there is NO JUBILEE anywhere - he was campaign for PDP and another party in Nyamira - he might even lose his home ground in Matiangi.

Gachagua -  Mt kenya east - if he wins - he harvest - if he loses - Ruto will kick out in many parts of mt kenya. He is playing in Maasailand, has one wild card in Coast, and Malala Luhya. He is likely to pick 1 or 2 in Maasailand where Kikuyus can pick a good Maasai.

Natembeya - He is trying to upstage Wamalwa - so big night for him - If DAP wins Malava he will forget Tranzoia - if DAP fails in Malava, Bungoma ward and Kakamega ward - he is finished - he will have to retreat to defend his governor position.

Big night for Kindiki - he wins - he retain DPORK - he loses - he loses everything - ODM gains everything he has.


My thoughts are on X.

https://x.com/Bygones_24/status/1992476091022442946

[Modesty Blaise]

  I see your Twitter with 200 followers. Don't take your broken English there. There are many grammar tools you can use.

[RV Pundit]

Well...I believe all the kenyan politics you know...I taught you with my broken English.

I see your Twitter with 200 followers. Don't take your broken English there. There are many grammar tools you can use.

[Tactician]

Whilst i vehemently disagree with your Kalenjin ethno-supremacy, I gotta appreciate the balls you have to post your predictions before hand in full glare of everybody.

Let's see how it pans out on Friday morning

Big winners.
1) Kindiki

Big Losers
1) Natembeya - TKOed.
2) Gachagua

[RV Pundit]

Ethno supremacy and I married from Embu? Boss - hizi ni kelele tu online.

Whilst i vehemently disagree with your Kalenjin ethno-supremacy, I gotta appreciate the balls you have to post your predictions before hand in full glare of everybody.

Let's see how it pans out on Friday morning

Big winners.
1) Kindiki

Big Losers
1) Natembeya - TKOed.
2) Gachagua

[RV Pundit]

Minor update. DCP LOSE Narok.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

The influential Kiama Kikuyu Council of Elders in Narok endorses UDA's Kudate and the Tutam Brigade in 2027. Kudate, in my opinion, will escape with a win easily. Tunai and the big Maa influencers are all in. I don't know how big the Kikuyu population in Narok town is, but it seems 90% of the Maa are with Robert Kudate!
At the Moment Tunai and Ntutu ndio kusema direction ya Maa people!

Campaign Closing Rally Success!
 What a powerful way to conclude our campaign!
 I had the honor of leading the UDA Narok County Brigade at a vibrant closing rally, hosted at the home of our dedicated Narok Town Ward MCA candidate, Robert Kanyinge Kudate.
 We used this final platform to emphatically reaffirm our call for peaceful, orderly, and democratic elections; during and after the polls. Our unity is our strength!
​
I was ​privileged to formally welcome several key defectors from the opposition who have chosen to walk this journey with us. This strengthens our vision for a progressive Narok! Welcome aboard!
​
​Special appreciation to the distinguished leaders who graced our event:
​Samwel Ole Tunai (Former Governor)
​Rebecca Tonkei (Women Representative)
​Maintaine Pareiyo (Area MP)
​Kitilai Ole Ntutu (Narok South MP)
​Gabriel Tongoyo (Narok West MP)
​Peter Kihungu (Kangema MP)
​MCAs led by Speaker Davis Ole Dikirr
​
​A special thank you to the Kiama Kiama, the esteemed Gikuyu Council of Elders, for gracing the occasion and offering their blessings and official endorsement to Robert Kanyinge Kudate. Their support is invaluable.

[RV Pundit]

Rigathi mess was to take war to Narok. He should not have visited it. Now he must lose.

The influential Kiama Kikuyu Council of Elders in Narok endorses UDA's Kudate and the Tutam Brigade in 2027. Kudate, in my opinion, will escape with a win easily. Tunai and the big Maa influencers are all in. I don't know how big the Kikuyu population in Narok town is, but it seems 90% of the Maa are with Robert Kudate!
At the Moment Tunai and Ntutu ndio kusema direction ya Maa people!

Campaign Closing Rally Success!
 What a powerful way to conclude our campaign!
 I had the honor of leading the UDA Narok County Brigade at a vibrant closing rally, hosted at the home of our dedicated Narok Town Ward MCA candidate, Robert Kanyinge Kudate.
 We used this final platform to emphatically reaffirm our call for peaceful, orderly, and democratic elections; during and after the polls. Our unity is our strength!
​
I was ​privileged to formally welcome several key defectors from the opposition who have chosen to walk this journey with us. This strengthens our vision for a progressive Narok! Welcome aboard!
​
​Special appreciation to the distinguished leaders who graced our event:
​Samwel Ole Tunai (Former Governor)
​Rebecca Tonkei (Women Representative)
​Maintaine Pareiyo (Area MP)
​Kitilai Ole Ntutu (Narok South MP)
​Gabriel Tongoyo (Narok West MP)
​Peter Kihungu (Kangema MP)
​MCAs led by Speaker Davis Ole Dikirr
​
​A special thank you to the Kiama Kiama, the esteemed Gikuyu Council of Elders, for gracing the occasion and offering their blessings and official endorsement to Robert Kanyinge Kudate. Their support is invaluable.

[Modesty Blaise]

I agree with you except Mbeere, Malava, Kasipul where DP, DAP-K, ODM will win.
With millions to spare UDA has very likely also corrupted the Mizani polls in Mbeere and Malava.
Thus, logically, Malava will be a bigger drubbing than Mbeere for UDA.

Kindiki, MaDVD, Wetangula will be TKOd.

Ruto will write off Mt Kenya but persist in his games in Luhya. Big UDA vs DAP-K war there as ODM die.
Obstinate Malala clashes will escalate with Natembeya who will not accept DCP nonsense in Luhya.
Khalwale will get DAP-K governor ticket. Malala might decamp from opposition.
Amisi's and Kenya Moja crew will join DAP-K.

The other war zone over ODM carcass will be Mijikenda.
Not sure how a Swahili and a Borana can consolidate power there.

Overall: despite UDA winning most seats RUTO WILL BE THE BIGGEST LOSER.

Minor update. DCP LOSE Narok.

[Modesty Blaise]

Riggy cousins might nail DCP 1 or 2 MPs in Maa but changes nothing overall. Matusa will overwhelmingly vote Ruto.

Rigathi mess was to take war to Narok. He should not have visited it. Now he must lose.

[Modesty Blaise]

We are only interested in Big 2 - Malava and Mbeere North. Still pending.

ODM-UDA combo winning in Magarini (Kilifi) means little. Or Banissa pastoralist area. Or Wiper in Machakos.

Other interesting ones of course are
• Narok Town MCA - DCP Masikonde has kicked UDA (57 v 42%)  https://ln.run/G5BGl
• Kisa East (Khwisero) - DCP Okwiri has kicked MDG. ODM distant 4th  https://ln.run/YiizZ
• Chwele/Kabuchai - Natembeya boy Wekesa has kicked FORD-K  (70-30%)  https://ln.run/ZOU_I
• Kariobangi North - DCP Warui has kicked ODM and UDA distant 3rd and 4th  https://ln.run/nhBss

Kabuchai is the most interesting. It Wetangula village he gets a serious dog-beating

So far so good for united oppostion.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

We are only interested in Big 2 - Malava and Mbeere North. Still pending.

ODM-UDA combo winning in Magarini (Kilifi) means little. Or Banissa pastoralist area. Or Wiper in Machakos.

Other interesting ones of course are
• Narok Town MCA - DCP Masikonde has kicked UDA (57 v 42%)  https://ln.run/G5BGl
• Kisa East (Khwisero) - DCP Okwiri has kicked MDG. ODM distant 4th  https://ln.run/YiizZ
• Chwele/Kabuchai - Natembeya boy Wekesa has kicked FORD-K  (70-30%)  https://ln.run/ZOU_I
• Kariobangi North - DCP Warui has kicked ODM and UDA distant 3rd and 4th  https://ln.run/nhBss

Kabuchai is the most interesting. It Wetangula village he gets a serious dog-beating

So far so good for united oppostion.

You are slow. David Ndakwa won also in Malava!
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2025-11-28-udas-leo-wamuthende-clinches-mbeere-north-seat

[Modesty Blaise]

We are only interested in Big 2 - Malava and Mbeere North. Still pending.

ODM-UDA combo winning in Magarini (Kilifi) means little. Or Banissa pastoralist area. Or Wiper in Machakos.

Other interesting ones of course are
• Narok Town MCA - DCP Masikonde has kicked UDA (57 v 42%)  https://ln.run/G5BGl
• Kisa East (Khwisero) - DCP Okwiri has kicked MDG. ODM distant 4th  https://ln.run/YiizZ
• Chwele/Kabuchai - Natembeya boy Wekesa has kicked FORD-K  (70-30%)  https://ln.run/ZOU_I
• Kariobangi North - DCP Warui has kicked ODM and UDA distant 3rd and 4th  https://ln.run/nhBss

Kabuchai is the most interesting. It Wetangula village he gets a serious dog-beating

So far so good for united oppostion.

You are slow. David Ndakwa won also in Malava!
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2025-11-28-udas-leo-wamuthende-clinches-mbeere-north-seat

I posted this hours ago.
I still see 0% uploads for Malava.

[Modesty Blaise]

You got a few wrong but BIG 2 right.

Big winner is Kindiki.
Big loser is RiggyG.

I am not sure Natembeya is TKOed with Kabuchai win. He seems to be getting Bukusu.
Natemnbeya can also cry look GoK used violence in Malava.
RiggyG has no such execuse.

Opposition are back to square zero. Unless things change - like another GenZ uprising - 2027 is gone with Ruto.

Big winners.
1) Kindiki

Big Losers
1) Natembeya - TKOed.
2) Gachagua