Oburu will not support Ruto re-election

[Modesty Blaise]

DCP swallowed UDA 40%
It's Mlima party and a few cousins in Kajiado or Narok.
I laugh how RiggyG did not wail at Raila funeral. Githunguri fool.

ODM was many unwieldy pieces Raila adeptly strung together. Clueless Oburu can't figure that web.

UDA has taken the pastoralists and Mijikenda.
Luo they are negotiating - lots of makelele - if Ruto deny them DPORK there will be problems.

Gusii and Luhya ngumu.
Luhya big hitter is being touted as Kalonzo DPORK.
Jubilee has "seconded" Matiang'i to united opposition.

Gone. Oburu is holding air.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Every group is fattening itself and gearing up to negotiate/extort money from Mr Moneybags, aka the president. On the other hand, the President is building Kenya in a massive way, and in mid-early 2027, his mega-projects will be 90-98% complete on time as the campaign begins. Constructions of affordable houses, hostels, schools, stadia, roads, bridges, bomas, police stations, etc. alone are currently employing 600K youth, to be scaled to 1.3 million by next year. On the campaign, the rest will be talking about wantam and other BS slogans with no concrete plan, while the president will be telling folks he delivered stadiums, 500+ markets, thousands of kilometres of roads, universal healthcare, jobs, zero scandal, record tea and coffee prices, inflation down, and so many economic empowerment initiatives. Dr Ruto will get more than 50% of western courtesy of Oparanya, Atwoli, Didmus Barasa, Weta, and Mudavadi. Khalwale and Natembeya are lightweights. The coast is locked, and the RV and pastoralist are locked. Ruto will likely scoop 40% of Mlima, especially if Riggy is not the top candidate. Only Raila could get close to Ruto, not anyone else. Campaigning needs money, and right now he has enough to give every young person – about 4 million Kenyans – 100K each to campaign for him!

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Othaya MP is breaking down for locals about Ruto's development projects all over Kenya. He even went further and said there will be no president in Kenyan history better for Kikuyu and all Kenyans than Ruto in the extended clip!

[Modesty Blaise]

Every group is fattening itself and gearing up to negotiate/extort money from Mr Moneybags, aka the president. On the other hand, the President is building Kenya in a massive way, and in mid-early 2027, his mega-projects will be 90-98% complete on time as the campaign begins. Constructions of affordable houses, hostels, schools, stadia, roads, bridges, bomas, police stations, etc. alone are currently employing 600K youth, to be scaled to 1.3 million by next year. On the campaign, the rest will be talking about wantam and other BS slogans with no concrete plan, while the president will be telling folks he delivered stadiums, 500+ markets, thousands of kilometres of roads, universal healthcare, jobs, zero scandal, record tea and coffee prices, inflation down, and so many economic empowerment initiatives. Dr Ruto will get more than 50% of western courtesy of Oparanya, Atwoli, Didmus Barasa, Weta, and Mudavadi. Khalwale and Natembeya are lightweights. The coast is locked, and the RV and pastoralist are locked. Ruto will likely scoop 40% of Mlima, especially if Riggy is not the top candidate. Only Raila could get close to Ruto, not anyone else. Campaigning needs money, and right now he has enough to give every young person – about 4 million Kenyans – 100K each to campaign for him!

Natembeya is emerging as the Luhya kingpin.
MaDVD is quite useless - the flowergirl exemplify - which makes him anathema for the proud bullfighters.
After losing UDF party to some jokers - ANC had 5 MPs - then he dissolved into UDA.
Now as a whole PM he cannot deliver an MP seat - the only one his party held in Kakamega.
You see cannot even be considered for DPORK - overtaken by Wangas and Johos.

See how the campaigns are run by Farouk - an alien - MaDVD just follows him around.

MaDVD is a shame to the Luhya community.
If you cannot sense the dynamic - Luhya anger is palpable - and Ruto will pay the price.

[RV Pundit]

Natembeya rise or loses in Malava.
Same way DCP will be extinguished in most of Mt kenya East if Kindiki wins in Mbeere.

Let wait for 27th Nov - It about 15 days to go

Natembeya is emerging as the Luhya kingpin.
MaDVD is quite useless - the flowergirl exemplify - which makes him anathema for the proud bullfighters.
After losing UDF party to some jokers - ANC had 5 MPs - then he dissolved into UDA.
Now as a whole PM he cannot deliver an MP seat - the only one his party held in Kakamega.
You see cannot even be considered for DPORK - overtaken by Wangas and Johos.

See how the campaigns are run by Farouk - an alien - MaDVD just follows him around.

MaDVD is a shame to the Luhya community.
If you cannot sense the dynamic - Luhya anger is palpable - and Ruto will pay the price.

[RV Pundit]

UDA had 50%;
40% of 50% =20%.
Remove that 20% to DCP column
Ruto remain with 30%.
Maybe Remove Weta+MaDVD - 5%- 25%
Add the Ruto gains in KA(Pokot) MATUSA +Somali+Coast+Luhya (MaDVD has joined).
Ruto you can say has added 10%.
That makes him 35%.
Return MaDVD+Weta 5%.
Now if Kindiki wins Mt kenya East - he can bring 5%.


Do we even need ODM at this point?

Ruto can just rig that 5%

But no need ODM bring their 20%

And Ruto make it 60% - plus Kindiki 65%

DCP swallowed UDA 40%
It's Mlima party and a few cousins in Kajiado or Narok.
I laugh how RiggyG did not wail at Raila funeral. Githunguri fool.

ODM was many unwieldy pieces Raila adeptly strung together. Clueless Oburu can't figure that web.

UDA has taken the pastoralists and Mijikenda.
Luo they are negotiating - lots of makelele - if Ruto deny them DPORK there will be problems.

Gusii and Luhya ngumu.
Luhya big hitter is being touted as Kalonzo DPORK.
Jubilee has "seconded" Matiang'i to united opposition.

Gone. Oburu is holding air.

[Modesty Blaise]

There is no ODM. They are bickering over Luo 10% - if Ruto give them DPORK that is all he gets.

Rest of the cookie has crumbled.You can almost run Ruto vs Kalonzo MOAS now.
It seems we are 50-50 like 2022. I don't know where you get Ruto 60%.
He only has solid Kamatusa and pastoralists.

I guess we want to wait and see if opposition stick together. That is the main sticker now.

UDA had 50%;
40% of 50% =20%.
Remove that 20% to DCP column
Ruto remain with 30%.
Maybe Remove Weta+MaDVD - 5%- 25%
Add the Ruto gains in KA(Pokot) MATUSA +Somali+Coast+Luhya (MaDVD has joined).
Ruto you can say has added 10%.
That makes him 35%.
Return MaDVD+Weta 5%.
Now if Kindiki wins Mt kenya East - he can bring 5%.


Do we even need ODM at this point?

Ruto can just rig that 5%

But no need ODM bring their 20%

And Ruto make it 60% - plus Kindiki 65%

[Modesty Blaise]

If Ruto lose Malava and Mbeere - it will be Kiambaa type avalanche that seal his fate. Those were his terriories before.

Opposition will solidify in Kamba, Gema, Luhya and Gusii.
Ruto is URP and Luo. Add him half Mijikenda.

You should update that MOAS thread.
Githunguri is scatterbrained but his rough MOAS is 55% Kalonzo. Challenge him.

Hii hubris yako ati 60%.
IF joint oppostion stick it can be NARC - don't underestimate the potential synergy/optics wave.

[RV Pundit]

We still have few things to do proper MOAS.
Let wait for by-election.
And Uhuru gameplan.

But so far roughly speaking I see Kindiki v Ruto at 55% -  with Joho 54%  - with Oparanya/Wanga - 53%

Let me give WORSE CASE scenario for Ruto.
1) Ruto loses Mbeere and he drops Kindiki
2) He pick any ODM (Joho, Oparanya, Wanga)
3) Mt kenya become so angry they decide to take themselves out for 2 decades   Kalonzo-Matiangi kumi Kumi.
4) Ruto scores least in GEMA, Kamba, Gusii and even 30% of Luhyas (DAP) vote opposition.


Let see by-election - and we will have more clarity.

I see Kindiki winning Mbeere - and taking over Mt Kenya East.
Murima will realize RUto cannot be beaten
They will decide it better to control their anger for 5yrs - and back Kindiki - than take themselves out for 20yrs.
Kindiki will get lot of Murima votes in RV diaspora and Mt kenya East.

Ruto will have weaken ODM and they will do a deal - without DPORK

ODM will get 1) 50% of cabinet and 2) Ruto will allow them to keep ODM zones - no competition from UDA - though Ruto can take over - so Kakamega Bonny Khawale has seen this from far.

If Ruto lose Malava and Mbeere - it will be Kiambaa type avalanche that seal his fate. Those were his terriories before.

Opposition will solidify in Kamba, Gema, Luhya and Gusii.
Ruto is URP and Luo. Add him half Mijikenda.

You should update that MOAS thread.
Githunguri is scatterbrained but his rough MOAS is 55% Kalonzo. Challenge him.

Hii hubris yako ati 60%.
IF joint oppostion stick it can be NARC - don't underestimate the potential synergy/optics wave.

[Modesty Blaise]

ODM civil war.
Winnie, Sifuna and Kenya Moja reject Ruto.

[Githunguri]

ODM civil war.
Winnie, Sifuna and Kenya Moja reject Ruto.

I wanted to post the same too-odm civil war.

Ruth odinga wants to be elected as odm party leader.

He has called oburu kumbaff politically speaking.

Pole sana Ruto.

[Modesty Blaise]

[Modesty Blaise]

Sifuna, Amisi endorse Kalonzo

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Wait for 2027 visuals: 500 markets, Bomas conventional complex city (the largest in Africa), Talanta stadium and 15 other stadia being upgraded, thousands of affordable homes, roads, massive hospitals like MTRH County, industrial & aggregation parks, etc., all to be ready or near 95% complete by mid-2027. Don't bet against WSR because you will lose big time!

[Modesty Blaise]

Seems senile Oburu is sick in Dubai.

If he drops dead, there will have to be party elections, and the pro-Ruto faction will lose.

Luo might end up with Kalonzo.

[RV Pundit]

You're given to silly conclusion. ODM is Ruto. Ruto is ODM. The rest are nonsense.

Seems senile Oburu is sick in Dubai.

If he drops dead, there will have to be party elections, and the pro-Ruto faction will lose.

Luo might end up with Kalonzo.

[Modesty Blaise]

Unless you mean Babu Owino or Orengo are not ODM. Likes of Orengo have said openly they will not follow Ruto.

Luhya, Gusii, Mijikenda - likely to break into Ruto vs Kalonzo/opposition. Literally you have Sifuna, Amisi and Kenya Moja Kibagendis endorsing Kalonzo. These are ODM MPs.

If Oburu dies - ODM Ruto faction will avoid elections because they hold most positions - and undemocratically endorse Ruto. The ground will split.

You're given to silly conclusion. ODM is Ruto. Ruto is ODM. The rest are nonsense.

Seems senile Oburu is sick in Dubai.

If he drops dead, there will have to be party elections, and the pro-Ruto faction will lose.

Luo might end up with Kalonzo.

[RV Pundit]

Sifuna has how many votes in Bungoma. Nothing. Babu is force in Nairobi slums. The rest sijui amisi. Nobody expect 100% of ODM or UDA or Jubilee to move. These few dissidents are very normal.