Oburu will not support Ruto re-election

[Githunguri]

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Ruto is cornered.

[Kadudu]

Oburu will be offered 100m and he will sell his soul. The good thing is ODM of today is not the ODM of Baba. ODM will shrink to a Siaya based party.

[Githunguri]

[Githunguri]

Ruto start packing.

[Modesty Blaise]

[Githunguri]

[Githunguri]

Seems wanga mbadi are on their own.

Odingas nyongo Orengo who are the real odm have already made a decision of kicking out ruto

[Modesty Blaise]

Seems wanga mbadi are on their own.

Odingas nyongo Orengo who are the real odm have already made a decision of kicking out ruto

i think Oburu's is a tactical retreat to contain Babu and Sifuna.
Orengo and Nyong'o are the legit middleground.

Ruto is between a rock and a hard place. ODM can only give him Luo.
If he loses Mbeere and Malava his position will deteriorate dramatically.

[Githunguri]

There is a nationwide wave to oust Ruto.

[Modesty Blaise]

I see him running with Joho.
If ODM cracks such that they can't deliver even a solid Luo block.

Wanga is damaged goods now.

[Githunguri]

I see him running with Joho.
If ODM cracks such that they can't deliver even a solid Luo block.

Wanga is damaged goods now.

Nothing will work for him.

[RV Pundit]

The desperation is understandable.
That kenyans will elect a ticket led by Wamunyoro is quite funny.
That Luos will abandon gov is quite funny.

Yes Joho likely to overtake Kindiki

[Modesty Blaise]

The desperation is understandable.
That kenyans will elect a ticket led by Wamunyoro is quite funny.
That Luos will abandon gov is quite funny.

Yes Joho likely to overtake Kindiki

Riggy is not leading anything - it Kalonzo. He is claim to get 50% and ghost PM.

Luo might be unable to agree which side to back - i see Kalonzo took 100 cows to Bondo.
Ruto can give them DPORK - and face nightmare in Luhya and Tharaka.

The dilemma come from losing Big 5 game to Kalonzo. Luo fractures are bad for him.
Even with Joho - he is fake Mijikenda - but Ruto might prefer him to less shiny Mvurya or Kingi.

Outside Big 5 or 6 there is unbankable, fractured tiny bases.

[Githunguri]

Joho is an arab whose political status is built on luo diaspora in Mombasa.With Raila dead,Joho and naseeer ni taka taka.

[RV Pundit]

Unatumia Githunguri brain siku hizi.

Mt Kenya at 25% - Kalonzo offers them 50%

ODM at 33% - what will they be going to do in Kalonzo corner - to sit behind Gachagua

ODM and UDA KK will do coalition agreement.

Kindiki has to be careful he doesnt become sacrificial lamb.

Riggy is not leading anything - it Kalonzo. He is claim to get 50% and ghost PM.

Luo might be unable to agree which side to back - i see Kalonzo took 100 cows to Bondo.
Ruto can give them DPORK - and face nightmare in Luhya and Tharaka.

The dilemma come from losing Big 5 game to Kalonzo. Luo fractures are bad for him.
Even with Joho - he is fake Mijikenda - but Ruto might prefer him to less shiny Mvurya or Kingi.

Outside Big 5 or 6 there is unbankable, fractured tiny bases.

[Githunguri]

[RV Pundit]

ODM Deputy Leaders are two or three - Oparanya and Joho - and Luo (Wanga, Opiyo, Mbadi).
One of them will be picked to deputize Ruto.
Picked by ODM party.
Luo picked will mark end of ODM outside Luo.

Joho is an arab whose political status is built on luo diaspora in Mombasa.With Raila dead,Joho and naseeer ni taka taka.

[Modesty Blaise]

But there is no "ODM" after Raila. Even with Raila there was Gusii and Luhya problem.
Raila could have delivered solid Luo and Mijikenda.

Now Babu Owino and Orengo alone can upend Ruto-Wanga in Luo.

Unatumia Githunguri brain siku hizi.

Mt Kenya at 25% - Kalonzo offers them 50%

ODM at 33% - what will they be going to do in Kalonzo corner - to sit behind Gachagua

ODM and UDA KK will do coalition agreement.

Kindiki has to be careful he doesnt become sacrificial lamb.

[Modesty Blaise]

This is what i see now. ODM is gone.

When the wailing stops and the dust settles, the hard numbers will remain like this all factors constant:

Kalonzo vs Ruto

Before Raila's death:
Kalonzo: Kamba, Gema, Gusii, Luhya
Ruto: Kalenjin, Luo, pastoralists, Mijikenda

After Raila's death:
Kalonzo: Kamba, Gema, Gusii, Luhya, half Mijikenda
Ruto: Kalenjin, Luo**, pastoralists, half Mijikenda

[RV Pundit]

Gone to Ruto UDA. Not DCP. Ruto is now comfortably at 40%. ODM 25%