When the wailing stops and the dust settles, the hard numbers will remain like this all factors constant:
Kalonzo vs Ruto
Before Raila's death:
Kalonzo: Kamba, Gema, Gusii, Luhya
Ruto: Kalenjin, Luo, pastoralists, Mijikenda
After Raila's death:
Kalonzo: Kamba, Gema, Gusii, Luhya, half Mijikenda
Ruto: Kalenjin, Luo**, pastoralists, half Mijikenda