Decision 2027-Kalonzo Musyoka-6TH President of Kenya (2027-2032)

[Githunguri]

What data on that information are your arguing with?What do you have contrary.This is public information.

Raila alive or dead.I have given Ruto
100% JALUO
100% RIFT VALLEY
100% SOMALI
50 % kisii and luhya
RIGGING
Which is NOT POSSIBLE IN REALITY.
HE CAN'T win.

You are a statistician.You know that.No wonder Sudi is talking about rigging.

In the worst case scenario Natembeya and Matiangi join Kalonzo camp,I doubt Ruto will cross past 35%.He will be massacred at the ballot.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

I see why Gachieta and the rest of the broke, radarless folk are busy campaigning when elections are 2 years away. The whole of Kenya is like this. It is a construction site with stadiums like Ithookwe Stadium getting built in under 5 months and about 15 to be ready in 2027. The projects that will be ready on election days will speak volumes, and Phase 2 projects in the pipeline for the second term are insane! Ruto will have doubled the roads in kilometres that drunkard left in 4 years (Absolutely insane). Those opposing Ruto better come with a superior agenda because Ruto is scandal-free and is delivering in real time. They also need to fund women, youth, churches, mosques, boda bodas, saccos, old people, schools, and anyone in between. No money on people, votes hard to come by. Ruto is doing all. Shelling millions of people with cash and delivering at the same time!

[Modesty Blaise]

Hitler that talent bond is actually a talent bomb. A scandal waiting to explode. It is a scheme to mint bribes as the Farouk kitty dwindles. I hope am wrong.

[Modesty Blaise]

What data on that information are your arguing with?What do you have contrary.This is public information.

Raila alive or dead.I have given Ruto
100% JALUO
100% RIFT VALLEY
100% SOMALI
50 % kisii and luhya
RIGGING
Which is NOT POSSIBLE IN REALITY.
HE CAN'T win.

You are a statistician.You know that.No wonder Sudi is talking about rigging.

In the worst case scenario Natembeya and Matiangi join Kalonzo camp,I doubt Ruto will cross past 35%.He will be massacred at the ballot.

Raila is dead so expect Jaluo civil war. You will have to reduce that to 50% or worse.

[GeeMail]

Exact. Big fight in ODM, party is kaput, and one faction will reject blood-based.

[RV Pundit]

Close this thread n focus on important things.

[Modesty Blaise]

Close this thread n focus on important things.

  MOAS by Gĩthũngũri the Mlima Pundit. We can compare with your own as events unfold.

[Modesty Blaise]

Exact. Big fight in ODM, party is kaput, and one faction will reject blood-based.

Yes. Mijikenda/pastoralists are gone with Ruto. Gusii is gone with Matiang'i. Luhya is gone with DAP-K.

Luo will be big war.

Ruto gets the lion share but it might be a posioned chalice as Luo will demand DPORK or else.

[Githunguri]

Exact. Big fight in ODM, party is kaput, and one faction will reject blood-based.

Yes. Coast/Mijikenda/pastoralist are gone with Ruto. Gusii is gone with Matiang'i. Luhya is gone with DAP-K.

Luo will be big war.

Ruto gets the lion share but it might be a posioned chalice as Luo will demand DPORK or else.

Something to note.

In 2007,Kibaki got 34% while Kalonzo got 7%

Gachagua and Kalonzo will be starting at the coast with 40% when we factor Kamba and GEMA diaspora.With Raila out of the picture,We still don't know 100% how the Mijikenda Arabs  + Luo Luhya diaspora at the coast will vote.But with  Raila out of the picture,A divided Mijikenda vote GEMA kamba union and Luo Luhya divided vote KALONZO TRANSCENDS BEYOND 50% at the coast.
Statistically,Kalonzo gets coast at 55%.

There will be no enthusiasm for Luos to vote for Ruto.In western,If Natembeya and Wamalwa stick with Kalonzo,Its massacre for Ruto.

Ruto is now MORE EXPOSED AND WORRIED.

When he learnt that Raila couldn't make it a few weeks ago,He became so emotional and met Gideon.He doesn't work well under pressure.We saw it even during GENz protests.

Ruto is DONE 100%.

[Modesty Blaise]

Exact. Big fight in ODM, party is kaput, and one faction will reject blood-based.

Yes. Coast/Mijikenda/pastoralist are gone with Ruto. Gusii is gone with Matiang'i. Luhya is gone with DAP-K.

Luo will be big war.

Ruto gets the lion share but it might be a posioned chalice as Luo will demand DPORK or else.

Something to note.

In 2007,Kibaki got 34% while Kalonzo got 7%

Gachagua and Kalonzo will be starting at the coast with 40% when we factor Kamba and GEMA diaspora.With Raila out of the picture,We still don't know 100% how the Mijikenda Arabs  + Luo Luhya diaspora at the coast will vote.But with  Raila out of the picture,A divided Mijikenda vote GEMA kamba union and Luo Luhya divided vote KALONZO TRANSCENDS BEYOND 50% at the coast.
Statistically,Kalonzo gets coast at 55%.

There will be no enthusiasm for Luos to vote for Ruto.In western,If Natembeya and Wamalwa stick with Kalonzo,Its massacre for Ruto.

Ruto is now MORE EXPOSED AND WORRIED.

When he learnt that Raila couldn't make it a few weeks ago,He became so emotional and met Gideon.He doesn't work well under pressure.We saw it even during GENz protests.

Ruto is DONE 100%.

55% Kalonzo is quite possible yes. Probably higher.

Mijikenda/Swahili/Arabs may be difficult with all big fish in GoK. Joho, Mvurya, Kingi - even small fish like Omar Hassan. Jicho Pevu seems to have good political instincts - might lead a rebellion. He has smelt the vacuum.

But if Luo and Luhya turn Ruto is dead.

[RV Pundit]

Hii bhangi you guys take ni ya maajabu. Are you even normal

[Modesty Blaise]

  You mean Raila has died, but we are discussing Ruto funeral

[Modesty Blaise]

When the wailing stops and the dust settles, the hard numbers will remain like this all factors constant:

Kalonzo vs Ruto

Before Raila's death:
Kalonzo: Kamba, Gema, Gusii, Luhya
Ruto: Kalenjin, Luo, pastoralists, Mijikenda

After Raila's death:
Kalonzo: Kamba, Gema, Gusii, Luhya, half Mijikenda
Ruto: Kalenjin, Luo**, pastoralists, half Mijikenda

[RV Pundit]

Why would Luhya vote for Wamunyoro project? Or anyone else in Kenya?

Kalonzo votes : Kikuyus+Kambas.

Elsewhere Gachagua and Mt kenya will rebel the rest to Ruto.

Simple- He will get 5% elsewhere.

Ruto 65-70%: Kalonzo 30-35%

Before DEATH - Ruto was competing with Raila for same pool of Non-GEMA or Mt Kenya votes.

After DEATH - Ruto is unchallenged leader of Anti-/Non-GEMA

SIMPLE

When the wailing stops and the dust settles, the hard numbers will remain like this all factors constant:

Kalonzo vs Ruto

Before Raila's death:
Kalonzo: Kamba, Gema, Gusii, Luhya
Ruto: Kalenjin, Luo, pastoralists, Mijikenda

After Raila's death:
Kalonzo: Kamba, Gema, Gusii, Luhya, half Mijikenda
Ruto: Kalenjin, Luo**, pastoralists, half Mijikenda

[Modesty Blaise]

Malava will soon tell us about Luhya. I see UDA already threatening to evict Khalwale for backing Panyako. Obviously the ground is hot.

There is a few MCA up for grabs in Nyamira too - UDA vs Nyaribo UPA.

About Ruto everywhere -- even the scatterbrained Githunguri you suddenly love has some rough numbers. Oburu cannot deliver what Raila could not.

Why would Luhya vote for Wamunyoro project? Or anyone else in Kenya?

Kalonzo votes : Kikuyus+Kambas.

Elsewhere Gachagua and Mt kenya will rebel the rest to Ruto.

Simple- He will get 5% elsewhere.

Ruto 65-70%: Kalonzo 30-35%

Before DEATH - Ruto was competing with Raila for same pool of Non-GEMA or Mt Kenya votes.

After DEATH - Ruto is unchallenged leader of Anti-/Non-GEMA

SIMPLE

When the wailing stops and the dust settles, the hard numbers will remain like this all factors constant:

Kalonzo vs Ruto

Before Raila's death:
Kalonzo: Kamba, Gema, Gusii, Luhya
Ruto: Kalenjin, Luo, pastoralists, Mijikenda

After Raila's death:
Kalonzo: Kamba, Gema, Gusii, Luhya, half Mijikenda
Ruto: Kalenjin, Luo**, pastoralists, half Mijikenda

[RV Pundit]

Panyanko is not running on DCP.
DCP have their candidate.
As far as I know DAP - Wamalwa thing is Uhuru thing.
Wamalwa will go where Uhuru goes.

Khawale knows ODM and UDA will agree for current governor to continue.

So he is definitely thinking DAP.

DAP is going to be party for those who will not want to be part of ODM-UDA coalition.

And will eventually align where Wamalwa-Natembeya want - Uhuru-matiangi-Jubilee.

Malava will soon tell us about Luhya. I see UDA already threatening to evict Khalwale for backing Panyako. Obviously the ground is hot.

There is a few MCA up for grabs in Nyamira too - UDA vs Nyaribo UPA.

About Ruto everywhere -- even the scatterbrained Githunguri you suddenly love has some rough numbers. Oburu cannot deliver what Raila could not.

[Modesty Blaise]

DCP Busiega is Malala hardheadedness which will embarass him by being mkia. It is no threat to DAP or would be shelved by RiggyG.

Uhuru needs to try something in Mbeere or Murang'a before we take him seriously. Has Ndindi or anyone serious joined Jubilee? It is pure conjecture and illogical that he controls DAP. Kalonzo and Natembeya/Eugene will not give up D/PORK for a few billions or CS - plain logic. Self interest - the core of politics - defeats your argument.

Khalwale is minding his interest. Even Matiang'i will follow his own interest.

Obviously once Natembeya is DPORK candidate for the united opposition - buying Eugene or any Luhya even for 2bob will be waste of money.

Panyanko is not running on DCP.
DCP have their candidate.
As far as I know DAP - Wamalwa thing is Uhuru thing.
Wamalwa will go where Uhuru goes.

Khawale knows ODM and UDA will agree for current governor to continue.

So he is definitely thinking DAP.

DAP is going to be party for those who will not want to be part of ODM-UDA coalition.

And will eventually align where Wamalwa-Natembeya want - Uhuru-matiangi-Jubilee.

[RV Pundit]

One month to go we get by-election

[Githunguri]

Gachagua emotional thinking will cost Kalonzo in the coming days.