Gideon Moi tea leaves

[RV Pundit]

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According to reports, MaDVD could have two deputy CSs — possibly Gideon Moi and Joho.
That suggests Ruto doesn’t fully trust Raila or Uhuru, and is slowly trying to weaken ODM.

Ruto likely hopes Kindiki can secure Mt. Kenya East, though the deputy slot may go to Kalonzo for balance.

The possible 2027 lineup:
Ruto/Kalonzo – MaDVD/Joho/Gideon – Weta/Kingi/Duale

That would bring together a broad regional and ethnic base:

Kamatusa bloc (Rift Valley) – ≈18%

Kalenjin – 13%

Turkana – 2%

Maasai + Samburu – 3%

Coast (Mijikenda, Swahili, Arab) – ≈6%

Northern Kenya (Somali, Borana, Rendille, etc.) – ≈7%

Eastern (Kamba) – ≈10%

Western (Luhya) – ≈14%

Total: ≈55% of Kenya’s population.

It’s a non-Kikuyu, non-Luo “periphery alliance” — uniting Rift, Coast, North, East, and West — large enough to deliver a national majority if mobilized effectively.

[RV Pundit]

🅰️ Plan A – Kindiki ticket (Mt. Kenya East focus)

Ticket: Ruto / Kindiki
Core allies: MaDVD + Wetang’ula (Western), Kingi (Coast), Joho (Coast), Duale (North)

Regional math (% of total national population):

Kamatusa (Rift) – 18 %

Mt. Kenya East (Meru, Embu, Tharaka, Mbeere) – 5 %

Partial Kikuyu (Central + diaspora) – 5 %

Western (70 % of 14 %) – 10 %

Coast (Mijikenda, Swahili, Arab) – 6 %

Northern (Somali, Borana, Rendille, etc.) – 7 %

➡️ Total ≈ 51 %

✅ Strength: Brings Mt. Kenya face (Kindiki) + strong Rift anchor.
⚠️ Weakness: Thin margin if Central or Western swing softens.

[RV Pundit]

🅱️ Plan B – ODM reconciliation (Raila / Joho / Gideon axis)

Ticket: Ruto / Raila (or MaDVD with Joho + Gideon support)
Core allies: MaDVD + Wetang’ula (Western), Kingi (Coast), Joho (Coast/ODM bridge), Duale (North), Gideon (Rift centrist)

Regional math:

Luo (ODM core) – 11 %

Coast (Joho, Kingi) – 6 %

Kamatusa (Rift) – 18 %

Western (70 % of 14 %) – 10 %

Northern (Duale bloc) – 7 %

➡️ Total ≈ 52 %

✅ Strength: Wider ethnic span, taps ODM network.
⚠️ Weakness: Trust and power-sharing friction between Ruto + Raila camps.

[RV Pundit]

🅾️ Plan C – Kalonzo replacement (Eastern pivot)

Ticket: Ruto / Kalonzo
Core allies: MaDVD + Wetang’ula (Western), Kingi (Coast), Joho (Coast), Duale (North)

Regional math:

Kamatusa (Rift) – 18 %

Eastern (Kamba) – 10 %

Western (70 % of 14 %) – 10 %

Coast (Mijikenda, Swahili) – 6 %

Northern (Somali, Borana, etc.) – 7 %

➡️ Total ≈ 51 %

✅ Strength: Simple, stable periphery bloc; low internal friction.
⚠️ Weakness: Weak foothold in Mt. Kenya and Luo zones.

[Modesty Blaise]

Why does Ruto need Gideon after beating him since 2007?

[Githunguri]

It's not mathing

[Githunguri]

I think you guys were bewitched.

NOW we shall label Ruto dynasty who wants to destroy Kenya.

[patel]

Ruto has capitulated to dynasty and thrown hustlers overboard. Mama mboga and nduthi guys are on their own. 2027  will be a nilotes Vs Bantus showdown. Why should Kalonzo ditch presidency for a deputy position that he can be impeached anyway? Genz constituency remains a formidable. Force especially if they do not retreat to tribal politics.

[RV Pundit]

Why does Ruto need Gideon after beating him since 2007?

Gideon is useless. I don't think Ruto will give him such big position maybe unless he delivers Kalonzo if kindiki loses mbeere. We have Nov 27th mid term elections

[RV Pundit]

It's not mathing

I didn't factor incumbency n rigging n all plans hit 50%. Most risky is Kindiki. Kindiki has win mbeere, sale himself n win over jubilee. He has 2yrs

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

It's not mathing

I didn't factor incumbency n rigging n all plans hit 50%. Most risky is Kindiki. Kindiki has win mbeere, sale himself n win over jubilee. He has 2yrs

The crowds Kindiki is pulling in the Embu and Tharaka regions suggest he will floor clueless DCP. Kindiki will struggle in Nyeri, Nyandarua, Murang'a but will thrive in Embu and Tharaka Nithi, Meru, and Isiolo! It seems Meru and Embu, Mbeeres, and Tharakas have decided to support Kindiki with his long-shot presidency ambition in 2032.

[Githunguri]

It's not mathing

I didn't factor incumbency n rigging n all plans hit 50%. Most risky is Kindiki. Kindiki has win mbeere, sale himself n win over jubilee. He has 2yrs

Where will you rig?

[Modesty Blaise]

It's not mathing

I didn't factor incumbency n rigging n all plans hit 50%. Most risky is Kindiki. Kindiki has win mbeere, sale himself n win over jubilee. He has 2yrs

Where will you rig?

I believe they have registered many refugees in Dadaab. And have denied Kukuyu youths ID's.