At the moment DP's Karish is leading by 40%, followed by the newly unveiled UDA candidate at 33%. DCP at 20% and the rest way down. I think the fact that UDA's Leo Muriuki is second yet he entered the scene days ago speaks volumes. When big guns and billions enter the sleepy villages, he may overpower opponents easily. I suspect parties will send high-powered surrogates and money to test and maintain strength as they prepare for the epic 2027 battle royale.
According to the survey released on Wednesday, September 3, the Democratic Party's (DP) Newton Karish leads the race with 40.1% support. Trailing Karish is the ruling party, United Democratic Alliance's (UDA) candidate Leonard Muriuki, with 33.3% popularity. Former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua's Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) candidate Duncan Mbui is in third place with 20%. While his party enjoys the highest preference at 43.3% across the constituency, Mbui has struggled to translate this into personal support. This gap between party strength and candidate performance underscores the challenges DCP faces in converting its broad base into actual votes. Josiah Thiriku and undecided voters each accounted for 3.3%, highlighting how the race remains largely concentrated among the three leading contenders.